Outgassing Behavior of C/2012 S1 (ISON) from 2011 September to 2013 June

We report photometric observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained during the time period immediately after discovery (r = 6.28 AU) until it moved into solar conjunction in mid-2013 June using the UH2.2 m, and Gemini North 8 m telescopes on Mauna Kea, the Lowell 1.8 m in Flagstaff, the Calar Alto 1.2 m telescope in Spain, the VYSOS-5 telescopes on Mauna Loa Hawaii and data from the CARA network. Additional pre-discovery data from the Pan STARRS1 survey extends the light curve back to 2011 September 30 (r = 9.4 AU). The images showed a similar tail morphology due to small micron sized particles throughout 2013. Observations at submillimeter wavelengths using the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope on 15 nights between 2013 March 9 (r = 4.52 AU) and June 16 (r = 3.35 AU) were used to search for CO and HCN rotation lines. No gas was detected, with upper limits for CO ranging between 3.5-4.5 × 1027 molecules s-1. Combined with published water production rate estimates we have generated ice sublimation models consistent with the photometric light curve. The inbound light curve is likely controlled by sublimation of CO2. At these distances water is not a strong contributor to the outgassing. We also infer that there was a long slow outburst of activity beginning in late 2011 peaking in mid-2013 January (r ~ 5 AU) at which point the activity decreased again through 2013 June. We suggest that this outburst was driven by CO injecting large water ice grains into the coma. Observations as the comet came out of solar conjunction seem to confirm our models.

Living in The Matrix: Virtual Reality Systems and Hyperspatial Representation in Architecture

In the digital age, the hyperspace of virtual reality systems stands out as a new spatial concept creating a parallel realm to "real" space. Virtual reality influences one’s experience of and interaction with architectural space. This "otherworld" brings up the criticism of the existing conception of space, time and body. Hyperspaces are relatively new to designers but not to filmmakers. Their cinematic representations help the comprehension of the outcomes of these new spaces. Visualisation of futuristic ideas on the big screen turns film into a medium for spatial experimentation. Creating a possible future, The Matrix (Andy and Larry Wachowski, 1999) takes the concept of hyperspace to a level not-yet-realised but imagined. With a critical gaze at the existing norms of architecture, the film creates new horizons in terms of space. In this context, this study introduces science fiction cinema as a discussion medium to understand the potentials of virtual reality systems for the architecture of the twenty first century. As a "role model" cinema helps to better understand technological and spatial shifts. It acts as a vehicle for going beyond the spatial theories and designs of the twentieth century, and defining the conception of space in contemporary architecture.

Observational Constraints on the Catastrophic Disruption Rate of Small Main Belt Asteroids

We have calculated 90% confidence limits on the steady-state rate of catastrophic disruptions of main belt asteroids in terms of the absolute magnitude at which one catastrophic disruption occurs per year  as a function of the post-disruption increase in brightness (Δm) and subsequent brightness decay rate (τ  ). The confidence limits were calculated using the brightest unknown main belt asteroid (V=18.5) detected with the Pan-STARRS1 (Pan-STARRS1) telescope. We measured the Pan-STARRS1’s catastrophic disruption detection efficiency over a 453-day interval using the Pan-STARRS moving object processing system (MOPS) and a simple model for the catastrophic disruption event’s photometric behavior in a small aperture centered on the catastrophic disruption event. We then calculated the  contours in the ranges from  and  encompassing measured values from known cratering and disruption events and our model’s predictions. Our simplistic catastrophic disruption model suggests that  and  which would imply that H_0≳28—strongly inconsistent withH_{0,B2005=23.26±0.02} predicted by Bottke et al. (Bottke, W.F., Durda, D.D., Nesvorný, D., Jedicke, R., Morbidelli, A., Vokrouhlický, D., Levison, H.F. [2005]. Icarus, 179, 63–94.) using purely collisional models. However, if we assume that H_0=H0,B2005 our results constrain , inconsistent with our simplistic impact-generated catastrophic disruption model. We postulate that the solution to the discrepancy is that >99% of main belt catastrophic disruptions in the size range to which this study was sensitive (∼100 m) are not impact-generated, but are instead due to fainter rotational breakups, of which the recent discoveries of disrupted asteroids P/2013 P5 and P/2013 R3 are probable examples. We estimate that current and upcoming asteroid surveys may discover up to 10 catastrophic disruptions/year brighter than V=18.5.

Defining the role of common variation in the genomic and biological architecture of adult human height

Using genome-wide data from 253,288 individuals, we identified 697 variants at genome-wide significance that together explained one-fifth of the heritability for adult height. By testing different numbers of variants in independent studies, we show that the most strongly associated 1/42,000, 1/43,700 and 1/49,500 SNPs explained 1/421%, 1/424% and 1/429% of phenotypic variance. Furthermore, all common variants together captured 60% of heritability. The 697 variants clustered in 423 loci were enriched for genes, pathways and tissue types known to be involved in growth and together implicated genes and pathways not highlighted in earlier efforts, such as signaling by fibroblast growth factors, WNT/I 2-catenin and chondroitin sulfate-related genes. We identified several genes and pathways not previously connected with human skeletal growth, including mTOR, osteoglycin and binding of hyaluronic acid. Our results indicate a genetic architecture for human height that is characterized by a very large but finite number (thousands) of causal variants.

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms.

Genetic studies of body mass index yield new insights for obesity biology

Obesity is heritable and predisposes to many diseases. To understand the genetic basis of obesity better, here we conduct a genome-wide association study and Metabochip meta-analysis of body mass index (BMI), a measure commonly used to define obesity and assess adiposity, in up to 339,224 individuals. This analysis identifies 97 BMI-associated loci (P < 5 × 10(-8)), 56 of which are novel. Five loci demonstrate clear evidence of several independent association signals, and many loci have significant effects on other metabolic phenotypes. The 97 loci account for ∼2.7% of BMI variation, and genome-wide estimates suggest that common variation accounts for >20% of BMI variation. Pathway analyses provide strong support for a role of the central nervous system in obesity susceptibility and implicate new genes and pathways, including those related to synaptic function, glutamate signalling, insulin secretion/action, energy metabolism, lipid biology and adipogenesis.

The main-belt comets: The Pan-STARRS1 perspective

We analyze a set of 760 475 observations of 333 026 unique main-belt objects obtained by the Pan-STARRS1(PS1) survey telescope between 2012 May 20 and 2013 November 9, a period during which PS1 discoveredtwo main-belt comets, P/2012 T1 (PANSTARRS) and P/2013 R3 (Catalina-PANSTARRS). PS1 cometdetection procedures currently consist of the comparison of the point spread functions (PSFs) of movingobjects to those of reference stars, and the flagging of objects that show anomalously large radial PSFwidths for human evaluation and possible observational follow-up. Based on the number of missed discoveryopportunities among comets discovered by other observers, we estimate an upper limit comet discoveryefficiency rate of 70% for PS1. Additional analyses that could improve comet discovery yields infuture surveys include linear PSF analysis, modeling of trailed stellar PSFs for comparison to trailed movingobject PSFs, searches for azimuthally localized activity, comparison of point-source-optimized photometryto extended-source-optimized photometry, searches for photometric excesses in objects withknown absolute magnitudes, and crowd-sourcing. Analysis of the discovery statistics of the PS1 surveyindicates an expected fraction of 59 MBCs per 106 outer main-belt asteroids (corresponding to a totalexpected population of 140 MBCs among the outer main-belt asteroid population with absolute magnitudesof 12 < HV < 19:5), and a 95% confidence upper limit of 96 MBCs per 106 outer main-belt asteroids(corresponding to a total of 230 MBCs), assuming a detection efficiency of 50%. We note howeverthat significantly more sensitive future surveys (particularly those utilizing larger aperture telescopes)could detect many more MBCs than estimated here. Examination of the orbital element distribution ofall known MBCs reveals an excess of high eccentricities (0:1 < e < 0:3) relative to the background asteroidpopulation. Theoretical calculations show that, given these eccentricities, the sublimation rate for atypical MBC is orders of magnitude larger at perihelion than at aphelion, providing a plausible physicalexplanation for the observed behavior of MBCs peaking in observed activity strength near perihelion.These results indicate that the overall rate of mantle growth should be slow, consistent with observationalevidence that MBC activity can be sustained over multiple orbit passages.

Sublimation-Driven Activity in Main-Belt Comet 313p/Gibbs

We present an observational and dynamical study of newly discovered main-belt comet 313P/Gibbs. We find that the object is clearly active both in observations obtained in 2014 and in precovery observations obtained in 2003 by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, strongly suggestingthat its activity is sublimation-driven. This conclusion is supported by a photometric analysis showing an increase in the total brightness of the comet over the 2014 observing period, and dust modeling resultsshowing that the dust emission persists over at least three months during both active periods, where we find start dates for emission nolater than 2003 July 24 ± 10 for the 2003 active period and 2014 July 28 ± 10 for the 2014 active period. From serendipitous observations by the Subaru Telescope in 2004 when the object was apparently inactive, we estimate that the nucleus has an absolute R-band magnitude of HR = 17.1 ± 0.3, corresponding to aneffective nucleus radius of re ∼ 1.00 ± 0.15 km.The object’s faintness at that time means we cannot rule out the presence of activity, and so this computed radius should be consideredan upper limit. We find that 313P’s orbit is intrinsically chaotic, having a Lyapunov time of Tl = 12,000 yr and beinglocated near two three-body mean-motion resonances with Jupiter andSaturn, 11J-1S-5A and 10J+12S-7A, yet appears stable over >50 Myr in an apparent example of stable chaos. We furthermore find that 313P is the second main-belt comet, after P/2012 T1 (PANSTARRS), to belong tothe ∼155 Myr old Lixiaohua asteroid family.

Absolute magnitudes and slope parameters for 250,000 asteroids observed by Pan-STARRS PS1 - preliminary results

We present the results of a Monte Carlo technique to calculate the absolute magnitudes (H) and slope parameters (G) of about 240,000 asteroids observed by the Pan-STARRS1 telescope during the first 15 months of its 3-year all-sky survey mission. The system's exquisite photometry with photometric errors asteroids rotation period, amplitude and color to derive the most-likely H and G, but its major advantage is in estimating realistic statistical+systematic uncertainties and errors on each parameter. The method was confirmed by comparison with the well-established and accurate results for about 500 asteroids provided by Pravec et al. (2012) and then applied to determining H and G for the Pan-STARRS1 asteroids using both the Muinonen et al. (2010) and Bowell et al. (1989) phase functions. Our results confirm the bias in MPC photometry discovered by ( Jurić et al., 2002).

The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons

This study provides estimates of the macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) inChina and India for the period 2012–2030. Our estimates are derived using the World Health Organization’sEPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply andcapital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronicrespiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost ofthe five main NCDs will total USD 23.03 trillion for China and USD 4.58 trillion for India (in 2010 USD).For both countries, the most costly domain is cardiovascular disease. Our analyses also reveal that thecosts are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China’s higher and steeper income trajectory,and to a lesser extent its older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO’s best buys foraddressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial

John Maxwell

Biography of General Sir John Maxwell