Modelling trajectories through the educational system in North West England

The main aim of this paper is to identify those school-level and locality-level factors that significantly affect each of the three stages in a young adult's educational trajectory in North West England: GCSE results, track taken at age 16 and 'A'-level scores. By applying three-level models to data collected as part of the EFFNATIS project, we find no evidence of any locality-level effects. Overall, none of the explanatory variables conventionally considered to affect educational attainment had a consistent effect across all three stages. Rather, each explanatory variable had a contingent effect at specific points within the overall trajectory of educational outcomes.

The Role of Growth Trajectories in Classifying Fetal Growth Restriction

OBJECTIVE: To examine the validity of a growth trajectory method to discriminate between pathologically and constitutionally undergrown fetuses using repeated measures of estimated fetal weight.

METHODS: In a prospective, observational, multicenter study in Ireland, 1,116 women with a growth-restricted fetus diagnosed participated with the objective of evaluating ultrasound findings as predictors of pediatric morbidity and mortality. Fetal growth trajectories were based on estimated fetal weight.

RESULTS: Between 22 weeks of gestation and term, two fetal growth trajectories were identified: normal (96.7%) and pathologic (3.3%). Compared with the normal trajectory, the pathologic trajectory was associated with an increased risk for preeclampsia (odds ratio [OR] 8.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.6–23.4), increased umbilical artery resistance at 30 weeks of gestation (OR 12.6, 95% CI 4.6–34.1) or 34 weeks of gestation (OR 28.0, 95% CI 8.9–87.7), reduced middle cerebral artery resistance at 30 weeks of gestation (OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.12–0.96) or 34 weeks of gestation (OR 0.14, 95% CI 0.03–0.74), lower gestational age at delivery (mean 32.02 weeks of gestation compared with 38.02 weeks of gestation; P<.001), and higher perinatal complications (OR 21.5, 95% CI 10.5–44.2). In addition, 89.2% of newborns with pathologic fetal growth were admitted to neonatal intensive care units compared with 25.9% of those with normal growth.

CONCLUSIONS: Fetal growth trajectory analysis reliably differentiated fetuses with a pathologic growth pattern among a group of women with growth-restricted fetuses. With further development, this approach could provide clarity to how we define, identify, and ultimately manage pathologic fetal growth.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II

Trajectories of Learning Dispositions and Attitudes in Upper Primary Schools in Northern Ireland: What exactly is going on?

There is increasing research and policy interest in the importance of attitudes to learning, learning orientations and learning dispositions (however they are labelled), not only because they influence traditional measures of school achievement but also because they facilitate how well children function at school, with implications for their future learning. This paper reports the findings on pupils’ learning dispositions and attitudes from two separate cohorts of pupils as they progress through upper primary school (Key Stage 2) in 50 schools in Northern Ireland. (These data are drawn from two different longitudinal studies and the data collection period predates the introduction of the new Northern Ireland Curriculum.) Approximately 1200 pupils completed seven scales from the Assessment of Learner-Centred Practices, ALCPs (McCombs and Lauer, 1997) at three time points, at the end of P5 (9 year olds), at the end of P6 (10 years olds) and at the end of P7 (11 year olds). ALCPs draws on an extensive research base that has identified cognitive and motivational dispositions and attitudes that are associated with a positive orientation to learning, and ultimately with positive progress in school (Alexander and Murphy, 1998). Although each scale can be considered separately, the seven scales cluster into two groups: self-efficacy, mastery orientation, active learning strategies and curiosity are all predicted to be pro-learning; and challenge avoidance, work avoidance, and – to a lesser extent – performance orientation, are predicted to be negatively associated with learning. The general trajectory in the children’s self-evaluations shows that they are becoming less pro-learning over time, with significant decreases in their self-ratings of active learning, curiosity, mastery orientation and self-efficacy. At the same time, there is some evidence that they work harder and put more effort into their work but this is not accompanied by maintaining their previous pro-learning motivations and strategies. The pattern is consistently more negative for boys than for girls. There are very few differences between the two cohorts indicating that the pattern is not confined to a specific cohort. These findings are challenging and will be interrogated with regard to two questions – are the changes related to the influence of the children’s school experiences per se or are they more related to developmental differences as children adopt more critical appraisals of their personal attributes and efforts as they get older? Whatever the reason, these learning dispositions and attitudes are important as they contribute significantly to school achievement even when the more traditional predictors like gender and ability are taken into account.

The Millennium child with autism: Early childhood trajectories for health, education and economic wellbeing

Objective: Most of what we know about children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is based on post-diagnostic, retrospective, self-select studies. Oftentimes, there is no direct comparison between trajectories of children with ASD and children without ASD.

Methods: To circumvent both of these problems, the present secondary data analysis utilised a large-scale longitudinal general population survey of children born in the year 2000 (i.e. the Millennium Cohort Study; MCS; n=18522). Bi-annual MCS data were available from five data sweeps (children aged 9 months to 11 years of age).

Results: Pre-diagnostic data showed early health problems differentiated children later diagnosed with autism from non-diagnosed peers. Prevalence was much higher than previously estimated (3.5% for 11-year olds). Post-diagnosis, trajectories deteriorated significantly for the children with ASD and their families in relation to education, health and economic wellbeing.

Conclusion: These findings raise many issues for service delivery and the rights of persons with disabilities and their families.

Classifying pedestrian movement behaviour from GPS trajectories using visualization and clustering

The quantity and quality of spatial data are increasing rapidly. This is particularly evident in the case of movement data. Devices capable of accurately recording the position of moving entities have become ubiquitous and created an abundance of movement data. Valuable knowledge concerning processes occurring in the physical world can be extracted from these large movement data sets. Geovisual analytics offers powerful techniques to achieve this. This article describes a new geovisual analytics tool specifically designed for movement data. The tool features the classic space-time cube augmented with a novel clustering approach to identify common behaviour. These techniques were used to analyse pedestrian movement in a city environment which revealed the effectiveness of the tool for identifying spatiotemporal patterns. © 2014 Taylor & Francis.

Trajectories of Adolescent Aggression and Family Cohesion: The Potential to Perpetuate or Ameliorate Political Conflict

Correlations between intergroup violence and youth aggression are often reported. Yet longitudinal research is needed to understand the developmental factors underlying this relation, including between-person differences in within-person change in aggression through the adolescent years. Multilevel modeling was used to explore developmental and contextual influences related to risk for youth aggression using 4 waves of a prospective, longitudinal study of adolescent/mother dyad reports (N = 820; 51% female; 10–20 years old) in Belfast, Northern Ireland, a setting of protracted political conflict. Experience with sectarian (i.e., intergroup) antisocial behavior predicted greater youth aggression; however, that effect declined with age, and youth were buffered by a cohesive family environment. The trajectory of aggression (i.e., intercepts and linear slopes) related to more youth engagement in sectarian antisocial behavior; however, being female and having a more cohesive family were associated with lower levels of youth participation in sectarian acts. The findings are discussed in terms of protective and risk factors for adolescent aggression, and more specifically, participation in sectarian antisocial behavior. The article concludes with clinical and intervention implications, which may decrease youth aggression and the perpetuation of intergroup violence in contexts of ongoing conflict.

(Re) making trajectories: Eviction, control and power

The City of Cairo's experienced a major shift in its urban planning attitude and practice since the mid 1970s which mostly validated elements of economic planning while neutralizing its social aspects. This ad hoc approach escalated conflict in planning politics over the control of space between tiers of the planning institution and the locals leading to rigorous planning actions among major stakeholders such as eviction and control of spaces. The article examines how institutional claims over space reassembled alternative definitions of quality of life in one of Cairo's oldest quarters, and how ambitious planning schemes were mostly driven by entrepreneurial rather than societal. Based on first-hand interviews and visuals, the article aims to reveal the local's struggle to survive such interventions with attention to their daily negotiations in place.

Thermodynamics of trajectories of a quantum harmonic oscillator coupled to N baths

We undertake a thorough analysis of the thermodynamics of the trajectories followed by a quantum harmonic oscillator coupled to $N$ dissipative baths by using a new approach to large-deviation theory inspired by phase-space quantum optics. As an illustrative example, we study the archetypal case of a harmonic oscillator coupled to two thermal baths, allowing for a comparison with the analogous classical result. In the low-temperature limit, we find a significant quantum suppression in the rate of work exchanged between the system and each bath. We further show how the presented method is capable of giving analytical results even for the case of a driven harmonic oscillator. Based on that result, we analyse the laser cooling of the motion of a trapped ion or optomechanical system, illustrating how the emission statistics can be controllably altered by the driving force.

Thermodynamics of trajectories and local fluctuation theorems for harmonic quantum networks

We present a general method to undertake a thorough analysis of the thermodynamics of the quantum jump trajectories followed by an arbitrary quantum harmonic network undergoing linear and bilinear dynamics. The approach is based on the phase-space representation of the state of a harmonic network. The large deviation function associated with this system encodes the full counting statistics of exchange and also allows one to deduce for fluctuation theorems obeyed by the dynamics. We illustrate the method showing the validity of a local fluctuation theorem about the exchange of excitations between a restricted part of the environment (i.e., a local bath) and a harmonic network coupled with different schemes.

Indexing and matching trajectories under inconsistent sampling rates

Quantifying the similarity between two trajectories is a fundamental operation in analysis of spatio-temporal databases. While a number of distance functions exist, the recent shift in the dynamics of the trajectory generation procedure violates one of their core assumptions; a consistent and uniform sampling rate. In this paper, we formulate a robust distance function called Edit Distance with Projections (EDwP) to match trajectories under inconsistent and variable sampling rates through dynamic interpolation. This is achieved by deploying the idea of projections that goes beyond matching only the sampled points while aligning trajectories. To enable efficient trajectory retrievals using EDwP, we design an index structure called TrajTree. TrajTree derives its pruning power by employing the unique combination of bounding boxes with Lipschitz embedding. Extensive experiments on real trajectory databases demonstrate EDwP to be up to 5 times more accurate than the state-of-the-art distance functions. Additionally, TrajTree increases the efficiency of trajectory retrievals by up to an order of magnitude over existing techniques.

School's out forever: Postsecondary educational trajectories of students with autism

Objective:Postsecondary educational attainment is the key for successful transition to adulthood, economic self-sufficiency, and good mental and physical health.Method:Secondary analyses of school leavers’ data were carried out to establish postsecondary educational trajectories of students on the autism spectrum in the United Kingdom.Results:Findings show that students with autism who had attended mainstream secondary schools enter Further Education (post-16 vocational training) and Higher Education (University) institutions at a similar rate to other students to study the full range ofsubjects on offer. However, they are more likely to be younger, study at a lower academic level, and remain living at home.Conclusion:While course completion data were not yet available, attainment data showed that prospects were improving, although more needs to be done to enable these young adults to a achieving their post secondary educational potential.

Judging where a ball will go: the case of curved free kicks in football

This study examined whether adding spin to a ball in the free kick situation in football affects a professional footballer's perception of the ball's future arrival position. Using a virtual reality set-up, participants observed the flight paths of aerodynamically realistic free kicks with (+/- 600 rpm) and without sidespin. With the viewpoint being fixed in the centre of the goal, participants had to judge whether the ball would have ended up in the goal or not. Results show that trajectories influenced by the Magnus force caused by sidespin gave rise to a significant shift in the percentage of goal responses. The resulting acceleration that causes the ball to continually change its heading direction as the trajectory unfolds does not seem to be taken into account by the participants when making goal judgments. We conclude that the visual system is not attuned to such accelerated motion, which may explain why goalkeepers appear to misjudge the future arrival point of such curved free kicks.