Advances in joint modelling: A review of recent developments with application to the survival of end stage renal disease patients

The use of joint modelling approaches is becoming increasingly popular when an association exists between survival and longitudinal processes. Widely recognized for their gain in efficiency, joint models also offer a reduction in bias compared with naïve methods. With the increasing popularity comes a constantly expanding literature on joint modelling approaches. The aim of this paper is to give an overview of recent literature relating to joint models, in particular those that focus on the time-to-event survival process. A discussion is provided on the range of survival submodels that have been implemented in a joint modelling framework. A particular focus is given to the recent advancements in software used to build these models. Illustrated through the use of two different real-life data examples that focus on the survival of end-stage renal disease patients, the use of the JM and joineR packages within R are demonstrated. The possible future direction for this field of research is also discussed. © 2013 International Statistical Institute.

On transition rates in surface hopping

Trajectory surface hopping (TSH) is one of the most widely used quantum-classical algorithms for nonadiabatic molecular dynamics. Despite its empirical effectiveness and popularity, a rigorous derivation of TSH as the classical limit of a combined quantum electron-nuclear dynamics is still missing. In this work, we aim to elucidate the theoretical basis for the widely used hopping rules. Naturally, we concentrate thereby on the formal aspects of the TSH. Using a Gaussian wave packet limit, we derive the transition rates governing the hopping process at a simple avoided level crossing. In this derivation, which gives insight into the physics underlying the hopping process, some essential features of the standard TSH algorithm are retrieved, namely (i) non-zero electronic transition rate ("hopping probability") at avoided crossings; (ii) rescaling of the nuclear velocities to conserve total energy; (iii) electronic transition rates linear in the nonadiabatic coupling vectors. The well-known Landau-Zener model is then used for illustration. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4770280]

‘Who Ate All the Pride?’:Patriotic Sentiment and English National Football Support.

The growing popularity of English national insignia in international football tournaments has been widely interpreted as evidence of the emergence of a renewed English national consciousness. However, little empirical research has considered how people in England actually understand football support in relation to national identity. Interview data collected around the time of the Euro 2000 and the 2002 World Cup tournaments fail to substantiate the presumption that support for the England football team maps onto claims to patriotic sentiment in any straightforward way. People with far-right political affiliations did generally use national football support to symbolise a general pride in English national identity. However, other people either claimed not to support the England national team precisely because of its associations with nationalism, or else bracketed the domain of football support from more general connotations of English patriotism.

Olga Shevchenko Crisis and the Everyday in Postsocialist

Taking Moscow as her research ground, the author develops a conceptual understanding of the relationship between social crisis and the everyday, which lies at the heart of this study. The central theme here is the prevalence of the 'total crisis' framework, a concept which defined the postsocialist experience for the Russians. Shevchenko argues that at its basis was the experience of economic uncertainty, social dislocations, and downward occupational mobility.

A thoughtful, innovative and thought-provoking study, this book gives important insights into what proved to be one of the most dramatic episodes in Russia's recent history. It also provides an important basis for our understanding of the subsequent epoch. In particular, it helps to explain the phenomenal popularity of Vladimir Putin, who built his image on the antithesis to the 'lawless 1990s'. This book is an invaluable contribution to the study of contemporary Russia, with its multiple paradoxes and contradictions.

Arts Council Ballet Policy Review

In May 2006 the Arts Council commissioned an independent review of the context and issues affecting professional ballet in Ireland. The findings were subsequently collated in a policy paper entitled Towards a Strategy of Support for Professional Ballet in Ireland, which was published in 2007 and adopted by the Council in the same year. The report acknowledged ballet as an integral part of cultural life and its importance to the development of many forms of professional dance. The document set forth a number of recommendations that have since formed the basis of art-form policy and funding relationships with ballet organisations.
In parallel since then, a number of important changes have taken place within the ballet sector. Some of these changes are the inevitable consequences of these difficult financial times. However, despite these funding challenges, the sector has managed to retain its vibrancy and popularity with national audiences. While the sector continues to evolve, the limited financial resources available to the Council have become an obstacle to implementing the road map envisioned in 2007. Given its significance and popularity, ballet remains an extraordinarily underdeveloped art form in Ireland. A key weakness of the sector is that future development of ballet provision remains fundamentally uncertain and is still overly dependent on the personal and professional commitment of a few individuals.
This review aims to analyse the current situation, discuss and consider how matters might be progressed and to propose a comprehensive framework for the development of ballet in Ireland. The purpose of the review is to provide an objective point of reference for the Arts Council‘s medium- term ballet policy and to inform and guide future public investment in the art form. The review also intends to progress the work undertaken since 2007 in response to the document Towards a Strategy of Support for Professional Ballet in Ireland.
Within a wider perspective, the review is expected to provide compelling evidence of ballet's relevance to Irish cultural life. It will also create an opportunity for the Council to engage with relevant stakeholders with a view to addressing the challenge of how best to provide for ballet on a sustainable basis within the context of a changed financial environment and an evolving professional sector. There is reason to expect this review will also assist the sector in giving voice to its aspirations and needs. This would certainly assist the Council in garnering support for a blueprint for the consolidation of professional ballet practice and education in Ireland.
It is envisioned the ballet policy review will be closely aligned to the Arts Council‘s own high-level objectives and will take account of developments that may arise from the broader process of strategic review the Council will undertake in 2014.

Ranking Spatial and Temporal Hotspots for Road Safety Interventions Using a Nonlinear Aggregation Approach

In recent years, the concept of a composite performance index, brought from economic and business statistics, has gained popularity in the field of road safety. The construction of the Composite Safety Performance Index (CSPI) involves the following key steps: the selection of the most appropriate indicators to be aggregated and the method used to aggregate them.

Over the last decade, various aggregation methods for estimating the CSPI have been suggested in the literature. However, recent studies indicates that most of these methods suffer from many deficiencies at both the theoretical and operational level; these include the correlation and compensability between indicators, as well as their high “degree of freedom” which enables one to readily manipulate them to produce desired outcomes.

The purpose of this study is to introduce an alternative aggregation method for the estimation of the CSPI, which is free from the aforementioned deficiencies. In contrast with the current aggregation methods, which generally use linear combinations of road safety indicators to estimate a CSPI, the approach advocated in this study is based on non-linear combinations of indicators and can be summarized into the following two main steps: the pairwise comparison of road safety indicators and the development of marginal and composite road safety performance functions. The introduced method has been successfully applied to identify and rank temporal and spatial hotspots for Northern Ireland, using road traffic collision data recorded in the UK STATs19 database. The obtained results highlight the promising features of the proposed approach including its stability and consistency, which enables significantly reduced deficiencies associated with the current aggregation methods. Progressively, the introduced method could evolve into an intelligent support system for road safety assessment.

Study on risk assessment and management and prevention of conflicts of interest in the prevention and fight against betting-related match fixing in the EU 28: Final Report

This report concerns the provisions and practices on betting-related match fixing in sports
within the 28 Member States. Carried out in late 2013/early 2014, respondents in each Member
State reported on that state’s gambling-related provisions in respect of football and tennis and
(in each country) a third sport determined on the basis of either its popularity (in terms of
participation or television viewing) or the existence of betting-related “scandals” in that sport
within that particular jurisdiction. Those reports helped the authors to compare the Member
States’ regulatory and self-regulatory frameworks relating to risk assessment and conflict of
interest management, with a view to indicating areas of best practice, identifying particularly
good legislative frameworks and highlighting areas where change was either desirable or
necessary. While some individual Member States have legislation which might provide
templates that others could adapt for their own use, the authors were not convinced that “more
law”, whether at the national or European level, was desirable. Rather, more effective
cooperation among the stakeholders was identified as being more likely to provide tangible
benefits than would new legal frameworks.

Progress in the development of immunoanalytical methods incorporating recombinant antibodies to small molecular weight biotoxins

Rapid immunoanalytical screening of food and environmental samples for small molecular weight (hapten) biotoxin contaminations requires the production of antibody reagents that possess the requisite sensitivity and specificity. To date animal-derived polyclonal (pAb) and monoclonal (mAb) antibodies have provided the binding element of the majority of these assays but recombinant antibodies (rAb) isolated from in vitro combinatorial phage display libraries are an exciting alternative due to (1) circumventing the need for experimental animals, (2) speed of production in commonly used in vitro expression systems and (3) subsequent molecular enhancement of binder performance. Short chain variable fragments (scFv) have been the most commonly employed rAb reagents for hapten biotoxin detection over the last two decades but antibody binding fragments (Fab) and single domain antibodies (sdAb) are increasing in popularity due to increased expression efficiency of functional binders and superior resistance to solvents. rAb-based immunochromatographic assays and surface plasmon resonance (SPR) biosensors have been reported to detect sub-regulatory levels of fungal (mycotoxins), marine (phycotoxins) and aquatic biotoxins in a wide range of food and environmental matrices, however this technology has yet to surpass the performances of the equivalent mAb- and pAb-based formats. As such the full potential of rAb technology in hapten biotoxin detection has yet to be achieved, but in time the inherent advantages of engineered rAb are set to provide the next generation of ultra-high performing binder reagents for the rapid and specific detection of hapten biotoxins.

Characterisation of UK and Irish Cold-Pressed Rapeseed Oils in Relation to Quality Indices and Constituents.

Cold-pressed rapeseed oil (CPRSO) is produced when seeds from an oilseed rape crop are mechanically crushed whilst at a low temperature. CPRSO’s popularity is rapidly expanding and is now produced in most Northern European countries including both N.Ireland and ROI. The CPRSO industry is still relatively new and therefore not as widely researched as other high quality oils. Fifteen CPRSO from The UK, Ireland and France were examined to determine characteristic differences between the oils. Two samples of extra-virgin olive oil and two samples of refined rapeseed oil were also included in the investigation to assess performance against market competitors. The antioxidant potential of the oils was assessed using the ABTS and DPPH radical scavenging assays. Both unexpectedly showed that refined rapeseed oil had the highest potential whilst there was significant difference between many of the CPRSO’s. The acid value (ACOS method Cd 3d-63) ranged widely from 0.47-3.41. To predict the stability during storage, an accelerated oxidation test was carried out where the oils were placed in an oven (60°C) and peroxide value was monitored. The results showed extra-virgin olive oil underwent the least oxidation during the trial. The refined rapeseed oil suffered the worst levels of oxidation whilst the CPRSO’s performed similarly but with some variation. Fatty acid composition was investigated with GC-MS and some of the major fatty acids were found to differ significantly between producers. Minor compound analysis was achieved with extraction and identification through HPLC. All results are critically discussed and compared to relevant published studies.

The Victorian Press and the Fairy Tale (paperback)

Victorian writers often claimed that the press was killing the fairy tale. In fact, it ensured the genre's popularity, bringing literary tales and folklore to the first mass readerships. Exploring penny weeklies, adult and children's monthlies, little magazines and the labour press, this innovative study is the first to combine media and fairy tale history. Bringing reading communities back into focus, Sumpter explores ingenious political uses of the fairy tale: in debates over socialism, evolution and race, and in the context of women's rights, decadence and gay culture. The book offers new insights into the popularisation of folklore and comparative science, and also recovers neglected visual material. From the fantasies of Kingsley, MacDonald and J. H. Ewing to the writings of Keir Hardie, Laurence Housman and Yeats, Sumpter reveals that the fairy tale was intimately shaped by the press, and that both were at the heart of nineteenth-century culture.

The paperback edition includes a new Preface.

The design and psychometric assessment of a TPB-based questionnaire suitable for use with primary school children

Despite the popularity of the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) a lack of research assessing the efficacy of the model in understanding the health behaviour of children exists, with those studies that have been conducted reporting problems with questionnaire formulation and low to moderate internal consistencies for TPB constructs. The aim of this study was to develop and test a TPB-based measure suitable for use with primary school children aged 9 to 10 years. A mixed method sequential design was employed. In Stage 1, 7 semi-structured focus group discussions (N=56) were conducted to elicit the underlying beliefs specific to tooth brushing. Using content thematic analysis the beliefs were identified and a TPB measure was developed. A repeated measures design was employed in Stage 2 using test re-test reliability analysis in order to assess its psychometric properties. In all, 184 children completed the questionnaire. Test-retest reliabilities support the validity and reliability of the TPB measure for assessing the tooth brushing beliefs of children. Pearson’s product moment correlations were calculated for all of the TPB beliefs, achieving substantial to almost perfect agreement levels. Specifically, a significant relationship between all 10 of the direct and indirect TPB constructs at the 0.01 level was achieved. This paper will discuss the design and development of the measure so could serve as a guide to fellow researchers and health psychologists interested in using theoretical models to investigate the health and well-being of children.

A survey of location inference techniques on Twitter

The increasing popularity of the social networking service, Twitter, has made it more involved in day-to-day communications, strengthening social relationships and information dissemination. Conversations on Twitter are now being explored as indicators within early warning systems to alert of imminent natural disasters such earthquakes and aid prompt emergency responses to crime. Producers are privileged to have limitless access to market perception from consumer comments on social media and microblogs. Targeted advertising can be made more effective based on user profile information such as demography, interests and location. While these applications have proven beneficial, the ability to effectively infer the location of Twitter users has even more immense value. However, accurately identifying where a message originated from or author’s location remains a challenge thus essentially driving research in that regard. In this paper, we survey a range of techniques applied to infer the location of Twitter users from inception to state-of-the-art. We find significant improvements over time in the granularity levels and better accuracy with results driven by refinements to algorithms and inclusion of more spatial features.

How Video Lecture Capture affects Student Engagement in a University Computer Programming Course: Attendance, Video Viewing Behaviours and Student Attitudes

Introduction
The use of video capture of lectures in Higher Education is not a recent occurrence with web based learning technologies including digital recording of live lectures becoming increasing commonly offered by universities throughout the world (Holliman and Scanlon, 2004). However in the past decade the increase in technical infrastructural provision including the availability of high speed broadband has increased the potential and use of videoed lecture capture. This had led to a variety of lecture capture formats including pod casting, live streaming or delayed broadcasting of whole or part of lectures.
Additionally in the past five years there has been a significant increase in the popularity of online learning, specifically via Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) (Vardi, 2014). One of the key aspects of MOOCs is the simulated recording of lecture like activities. There has been and continues to be much debate on the consequences of the popularity of MOOCs, especially in relation to its potential uses within established University programmes.
There have been a number of studies dedicated to the effects of videoing lectures.
The clustered areas of research in video lecture capture have the following main themes:
• Staff perceptions including attendance, performance of students and staff workload
• Reinforcement versus replacement of lectures
• Improved flexibility of learning
• Facilitating engaging and effective learning experiences
• Student usage, perception and satisfaction
• Facilitating students learning at their own pace
Most of the body of the research has concentrated on student and faculty perceptions, including academic achievement, student attendance and engagement (Johnston et al, 2012).
Generally the research has been positive in review of the benefits of lecture capture for both students and faculty. This perception coupled with technical infrastructure improvements and student demand may well mean that the use of video lecture capture will continue to increase in frequency in the next number of years in tertiary education. However there is a relatively limited amount of research in the effects of lecture capture specifically in the area of computer programming with Watkins 2007 being one of few studies . Video delivery of programming solutions is particularly useful for enabling a lecturer to illustrate the complex decision making processes and iterative nature of the actual code development process (Watkins et al 2007). As such research in this area would appear to be particularly appropriate to help inform debate and future decisions made by policy makers.
Research questions and objectives
The purpose of the research was to investigate how a series of lecture captures (in which the audio of lectures and video of on-screen projected content were recorded) impacted on the delivery and learning of a programme of study in an MSc Software Development course in Queen’s University, Belfast, Northern Ireland. The MSc is conversion programme, intended to take graduates from non-computing primary degrees and upskill them in this area. The research specifically targeted the Java programming module within the course. It also analyses and reports on the empirical data from attendances and various video viewing statistics. In addition, qualitative data was collected from staff and student feedback to help contextualise the quantitative results.
Methodology, Methods and Research Instruments Used
The study was conducted with a cohort of 85 post graduate students taking a compulsory module in Java programming in the first semester of a one year MSc in Software Development. A pre-course survey of students found that 58% preferred to have available videos of “key moments” of lectures rather than whole lectures. A large scale study carried out by Guo concluded that “shorter videos are much more engaging” (Guo 2013). Of concern was the potential for low audience retention for videos of whole lectures.
The lecturers recorded snippets of the lecture directly before or after the actual physical delivery of the lecture, in a quiet environment and then upload the video directly to a closed YouTube channel. These snippets generally concentrated on significant parts of the theory followed by theory related coding demonstration activities and were faithful in replication of the face to face lecture. Generally each lecture was supported by two to three videos of durations ranging from 20 – 30 minutes.
Attendance
The MSc programme has several attendance based modules of which Java Programming was one element. In order to assess the consequence on attendance for the Programming module a control was established. The control used was a Database module which is taken by the same students and runs in the same semester.
Access engagement
The videos were hosted on a closed YouTube channel made available only to the students in the class. The channel had enabled analytics which reported on the following areas for all and for each individual video; views (hits), audience retention, viewing devices / operating systems used and minutes watched.
Student attitudes
Three surveys were taken in regard to investigating student attitudes towards the videoing of lectures. The first was before the start of the programming module, then at the mid-point and subsequently after the programme was complete.
The questions in the first survey were targeted at eliciting student attitudes towards lecture capture before they had experienced it in the programme. The midpoint survey gathered data in relation to how the students were individually using the system up to that point. This included feedback on how many videos an individual had watched, viewing duration, primary reasons for watching and the result on attendance, in addition to probing for comments or suggestions. The final survey on course completion contained questions similar to the midpoint survey but in summative view of the whole video programme.
Conclusions and Outcomes
The study confirmed findings of other such investigations illustrating that there is little or no effect on attendance at lectures. The use of the videos appears to help promote continual learning but they are particularly accessed by students at assessment periods. Students respond positively to the ability to access lectures digitally, as a means of reinforcing learning experiences rather than replacing them. Feedback from students was overwhelmingly positive indicating that the videos benefited their learning. Also there are significant benefits to part recording of lectures rather than recording whole lectures. The behaviour viewing trends analytics suggest that despite the increase in the popularity of online learning via MOOCs and the promotion of video learning on mobile devices in fact in this study the vast majority of students accessed the online videos at home on laptops or desktops However, in part, this is likely due to the nature of the taught subject, that being programming.
The research involved prerecording the lecture in smaller timed units and then uploading for distribution to counteract existing quality issues with recording entire live lectures. However the advancement and consequential improvement in quality of in situ lecture capture equipment may well help negate the need to record elsewhere. The research has also highlighted an area of potentially very significant use for performance analysis and improvement that could have major implications for the quality of teaching. A study of the analytics of the viewings of the videos could well provide a quick response formative feedback mechanism for the lecturer. If a videoed lecture either recorded live or later is a true reflection of the face to face lecture an analysis of the viewing patterns for the video may well reveal trends that correspond with the live delivery.

Battery modelling methods for electric vehicles - a review

Electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) are rapidly gaining popularity as a means of de-carbonization in the transport sector in tackling sustainable energy supply and environment pollution problems. To build a proper battery model is essential in predicting battery behaviour under various operating conditions for avoiding unsafe battery operations and developing proper controlling algorithms and maintenance strategies. This paper presents a comprehensive review of battery modelling methods. In particular, the mechanism and characteristics of Li-ion batteries are presented, and different modelling methods are discussed. Considering that equivalent electric circuit models (EECMs) are the most widely used, a detailed analysis of the modelling procedure is presented.

High accuracy android malware detection using ensemble learning

With over 50 billion downloads and more than 1.3 million apps in Google’s official market, Android has continued to gain popularity amongst smartphone users worldwide. At the same time there has been a rise in malware targeting the platform, with more recent strains employing highly sophisticated detection avoidance techniques. As traditional signature based methods become less potent in detecting unknown malware, alternatives are needed for timely zero-day discovery. Thus this paper proposes an approach that utilizes ensemble learning for Android malware detection. It combines advantages of static analysis with the efficiency and performance of ensemble machine learning to improve Android malware detection accuracy. The machine learning models are built using a large repository of malware samples and benign apps from a leading antivirus vendor. Experimental results and analysis presented shows that the proposed method which uses a large feature space to leverage the power of ensemble learning is capable of 97.3 % to 99% detection accuracy with very low false positive rates.