The impact of antibiotic use on the incidence and resistance pattern of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing bacteria in primary and secondary healthcare settings

Aims: The objective of the present study was to study the relationship between hospital antibiotic use, community antibiotic use and the incidence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing bacteria in hospitals, while assessing the impact of a fluoroquinolone restriction policy on ESBL-producing bacteria incidence rates. METHODS: The study was retrospective and ecological in design. A multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was built to relate antibiotic use to ESB-producing bacteria incidence rates and resistance patterns over a 5 year period (January 2005-December 2009). Results: Analysis showed that the hospital incidence of ESBLs had a positive relationship with the use of fluoroquinolones in the hospital (coefficient = 0.174, P= 0.02), amoxicillin-clavulanic acid in the community (coefficient = 1.03, P= 0.03) and mean co-morbidity scores for hospitalized patients (coefficient = 2.15, P= 0.03) with various time lags. The fluoroquinolone restriction policy was implemented successfully with the mean use of fluoroquinolones (mainly ciprofloxacin) being reduced from 133 to 17 defined daily doses (DDDs)/1000 bed days (P <0.001) and from 0.65 to 0.54 DDDs/1000 inhabitants/day (P= 0.0007), in both the hospital and its surrounding community, respectively. This was associated with an improved ciprofloxacin susceptibility in both settings [ciprofloxacin susceptibility being improved from 16% to 28% in the community (P <0.001)] and with a statistically significant reduction in ESBL-producing bacteria incidence rates. Discussion: This study supports the value of restricting the use of certain antimicrobial classes to control ESBL, and demonstrates the feasibility of reversing resistance patterns post successful antibiotic restriction. The study also highlights the potential value of the time-series analysis in designing efficient antibiotic stewardship. © 2011 The Authors. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology © 2011 The British Pharmacological Society.

A Hydrodynamic Modelling Framework for Strangford Lough Part 1: Tidal Model

Hydrodynamic models are a powerful tool that can be used by a wide range of end users to assist in predicting the effects of both physical and biological processes on local environmental conditions. This paper describes the development of a tidal model for Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, a body of water renowned for the location of the first grid-connected tidal turbine, SeaGen, as well as the UK’s third Marine Nature Reserve. Using MIKE 21 modelling software, the development, calibration and performance of the modelare described in detail. Strangford Lough has a complex flow pattern with high flows through the Narrows (~3.5 m/s) linking the main body of the Lough to the Irish Sea and intricate flow patterns around the numerous islands. With the aid of good quality tidal and current data obtained throughout the Lough during the model development, the surface elevation and current magnitude between the observed and numerical model were almost identical with model skill >0.98 and >0.84 respectively. The applicability of the model is such that it can be used as an important tool for the prediction of important ecological processes as well as engineering applications within Strangford Lough.

Later Pleistocene evolution of the Exe valley: A chronstratigraphic model of terrace formation and its implications for Palaeolithic archaeology

This paper presents the ?rst systematic chronostratigraphic study of the river terraces of the Exe catchment in South West England and a new conceptual model for terrace formation in unglaciated basins with applicability to terrace staircase sequences elsewhere. The Exe catchment lay beyond the maximum extent of Pleistocene ice sheets and the drainage pattern evolved from the Tertiary to the Middle Pleistocene, by which time the major valley systems were in place and downcutting began to create a staircase of strath terraces. The higher terraces (8-6) typically exhibit altitudinal overlap or appear to be draped over the landscape, whilst the middle terraces show greater altitudinal separation and the lowest terraces are of a cut and ?ll form. The terrace deposits investigated in this study were deposited in cold phases of the glacial-interglacial Milankovitch climatic cycles with the lowest four being deposited in the Devensian Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 4-2. A new cascade process-response model is proposed of basin terrace evolution in the Exe valley, which emphasises the role of lateral erosion in the creation of strath terraces and the reworking of inherited resistant lithological components down through the staircase. The resultant emergent valley topography and the reworking of artefacts along with gravel clasts, have important implications for the dating of hominin presence and the local landscapes they inhabited. Whilst the terrace chronology suggested here is still not as detailed as that for the Thames or the Solent System it does indicate a Middle Palaeolithic hominin presence in the region, probably prior to the late Wolstonian Complex or MIS 6. This supports existing data from cave sites in South West England.

Experimental investigation of a wavelet based drive-by bridge inspection system incorporating pattern recognition

This paper presents the results of an experimental investigation, carried out in order to verify the feasibility of a ‘drive-by’ approach which uses a vehicle instrumented with accelerometers to detect and locate damage in a bridge. In theoretical simulations, a simplified vehicle-bridge interaction model is used to investigate the effectiveness of the approach in detecting damage in a bridge from vehicle accelerations. For this purpose, the accelerations are processed using a continuous wavelet transform and damage indicators are evaluated and compared. Alternative statistical pattern recognition techniques are incorporated to allow for repeated vehicle passes. Parameters such as vehicle speed, damage level, location and road roughness are varied in simulations to investigate the effect. A scaled laboratory experiment is carried out to assess the effectiveness of the approach in a more realistic environment, considering a number of bridge damage scenarios.

Behavioral Model Generation from Use Cases Based on Ontology Mapping and GRASP Patterns

This paper contributes a new approach for developing UML software designs from Natural Language (NL), making use of a meta-domain oriented ontology, well established software design principles and Natural Language Processing (NLP) tools. In the approach described here, banks of grammatical rules are used to assign event flows from essential use cases. A domain specific ontology is also constructed, permitting semantic mapping between the NL input and the modeled domain. Rules based on the widely-used General Responsibility Assignment Software Principles (GRASP) are then applied to derive behavioral models.

3D Morphable Model Construction for Robust Ear and Face Recognition

Recent work suggests that the human ear varies significantly between different subjects and can be used for identification. In principle, therefore, using ears in addition to the face within a recognition system could improve accuracy and robustness, particularly for non-frontal views. The paper describes work that investigates this hypothesis using an approach based on the construction of a 3D morphable model of the head and ear. One issue with creating a model that includes the ear is that existing training datasets contain noise and partial occlusion. Rather than exclude these regions manually, a classifier has been developed which automates this process. When combined with a robust registration algorithm the resulting system enables full head morphable models to be constructed efficiently using less constrained datasets. The algorithm has been evaluated using registration consistency, model coverage and minimalism metrics, which together demonstrate the accuracy of the approach. To make it easier to build on this work, the source code has been made available online.

A necessarily complex model to explain the biogeography of the amphibians and reptiles of Madagascar

Pattern and process are inextricably linked in biogeographic analyses, though we can observe pattern, we must infer process. Inferences of process are often based on ad hoc comparisons using a single spatial predictor. Here, we present an alternative approach that uses mixed-spatial models to measure the predictive potential of combinations of hypotheses. Biodiversity patterns are estimated from 8,362 occurrence records from 745 species of Malagasy amphibians and reptiles. By incorporating 18 spatially explicit predictions of 12 major biogeographic hypotheses, we show that mixed models greatly improve our ability to explain the observed biodiversity patterns. We conclude that patterns are influenced by a combination of diversification processes rather than by a single predominant mechanism. A ‘one-size-fits-all’ model does not exist. By developing a novel method for examining and synthesizing spatial parameters such as species richness, endemism and community similarity, we demonstrate the potential of these analyses for understanding the diversification history of Madagascar’s biota.

An indirect bridge inspection method incorporating a wavelet-based damage indicator and pattern recognition

In recent years, there has been a move towards the development of indirect structural health monitoring (SHM)techniques for bridges; the low-cost vibration-based method presented in this paper is such an approach. It consists of the use of a moving vehicle fitted with accelerometers on its axles and incorporates wavelet analysis and statistical pattern recognition. The aim of the approach is to both detect and locate damage in bridges while reducing the need for direct instrumentation of the bridge. In theoretical simulations, a simplified vehicle-bridge interaction model is used to investigate the effectiveness of the approach in detecting damage in a bridge from vehicle accelerations. For this purpose, the accelerations are processed using a continuous wavelet transform as when the axle passes over a damaged section, any discontinuity in the signal would affect the wavelet coefficients. Based on these coefficients, a damage indicator is formulated which can distinguish between different damage levels. However, it is found to be difficult to quantify damage of varying levels when the vehicle’s transverse position is varied between bridge crossings. In a real bridge field experiment, damage was applied artificially to a steel truss bridge to test the effectiveness of the indirect approach in practice; for this purpose a two-axle van was driven across the bridge at constant speed. Both bridge and vehicle acceleration measurements were recorded. The dynamic properties of the test vehicle were identified initially via free vibration tests. It was found that the resulting damage indicators for the bridge and vehicle showed similar patterns, however, it was difficult to distinguish between different artificial damage scenarios.

Testing of a Market Fraction Model and Power-law Behaviour in the DAX 30

This paper tests a simple market fraction asset pricing model with heterogeneous
agents. By selecting a set of structural parameters of the model through a systematic procedure, we show that the autocorrelations (of returns, absolute returns and squared returns) of the market fraction model share the same pattern as those of the DAX 30. By conducting econometric analysis via Monte Carlo simulations, we characterize these power-law behaviours and find that estimates of the power-law decay indices, the (FI)GARCH parameters, and the tail index of the selected market fraction model closely match those of the DAX 30. The results strongly support the explanatory power of the heterogeneous agent models.

Ecological dynamics of extinct species in empty habitat networks. 1. The role of habitat pattern and quantity, stochasticity and dispersal

We examined a remnant host plant (Primula veris L.) habitat network that was last inhabited by the rare butterfly Hamearis lucina L. in north Wales in 1943, to assess the relative contribution of several spatial parameters to its regional extinction. We first examined relationships between P. veris characteristics and H. lucina eggs in surviving H. lucina populations, and used these to predict the suitability and potential carrying capacity of the habitat network in north Wales. This resulted in an estimate of roughly 4500 eggs (ca 227 adults). We developed a discrete space, discrete time metapopulation model to evaluate the relative contribution of dispersal distance, habitat and environmental stochasticity as possible causes of extinction. We simulated the potential persistence of the butterfly in the current network as well as in three artificial (historical and present) habitat networks that differed in the quantity (current and X3) and fragmentation of the habitat (current and aggregated). We identified that reduced habitat quantity and increased isolation would have increased the probability of regional extinction, in conjunction with environmental stochasticity and H. lucina's dispersal distance. This general trend did not change in a qualitative manner when we modified the ability of dispersing females to stay in, and find suitable habitats (by changing the size of the grid cells used in the model). Contrary to most metapopulation model predictions, system persistence declined with increasing migration rate, suggesting that the mortality of migrating individuals in fragmented landscapes may pose significant risks to system-wide persistence. Based on model predictions for the present landscape we argue that a major programme of habitat restoration would be required for a re-established metapopulation to persist for > 100 years.

An ultra-short-term wind power prediction method using “offline classification and optimization, online model matching” based on time series features

The applicability of ultra-short-term wind power prediction (USTWPP) models is reviewed. The USTWPP method proposed extracts featrues from historical data of wind power time series (WPTS), and classifies every short WPTS into one of several different subsets well defined by stationary patterns. All the WPTS that cannot match any one of the stationary patterns are sorted into the subset of nonstationary pattern. Every above WPTS subset needs a USTWPP model specially optimized for it offline. For on-line application, the pattern of the last short WPTS is recognized, then the corresponding prediction model is called for USTWPP. The validity of the proposed method is verified by simulations.

The diamond pyramid structure in electroless copper deposit, its atomic model and molecular dynamics simulation

In this seminar, I will talk about the discovery of the diamond pyramid structures in the electroless copper deposits on both epoxy and stainless steel substrates. The surface morphology of the structure was characterized with scanning electron microscopy (SEM). According to the morphological feature of the structure, an atom model was brought forward in order to describe the possible mechanism of forming such structure. Molecular dynamics simulations were then carried out to investigate the growing process of the diamond pyramid structure. The final structures of the simulation were compared with the SEM images and the atomic model. The radial distribution function of the final structures of the simulation was compared with that calculated from the X-ray diffraction pattern of the electroless copper deposit sample.

Galleria mellonella as a novel in vivo model for assessment of the toxicity of 1-alkyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride ionic liquids

The larval form of the Greater Wax Moth (Galleria mellonella) was evaluated as a model system for the study of the acute in vivo toxicity of 1-alkyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride ionic liquids. 24-h median lethal dose (LD50) values for nine of these ionic liquids bearing alkyl chain substituents ranging from 2 to 18 carbon atoms were determined. The in vivo toxicity of the ionic liquids was found to correlate directly with the length of the alkyl chain substituent, and the pattern of toxicity observed was in accordance with previous studies of ionic liquid toxicity in other living systems, including a characteristic toxicity ‘cut-off’ effect. However, G. mellonella appeared to be more susceptible to the toxic effects of the ionic liquids tested, possibly as a result of their high body fat content. The results obtained in this study indicate that G. mellonella represents a sensitive, reliable and robust in vivo model organism for the evaluation of ionic liquid toxicity.

Flow Pattern in Compound Channel with Floodplain Double Groyne

The results of an experimental study and velocity analysis of the flow characteristics in the vicinityof a floodplain with two rows of permeable/impermeable groynes in compound channels with oneand two floodplains are presented. A 60% permeable groyne model with three different lengthsrelative to the floodplain width was used. The results showed that double groyne could beconsidered as one groyne (one block) for aspect ratio Sr < 2 (Sr = distance between twosuccessive groynes/groyne length). When Sr > 2, each groyne started to act independently.The velocity reduction was more than 45-52% of the floodplain’s approach velocity compared with30-35% in the case of a single groyne. The significant velocity reduction was located at a distance1.5-2 times the groyne length downstream of the single or the double groynes. Generally, themaximum velocities in the main channel ranged from 1.1 to 1.35 times the original approachingvelocity. The effective groyne relative length and aspect ratio should not to be more than 0.5 and 2,respectively.

Applying the Transtheoretical Model to Physical Activity Behavior in Individuals With Non-Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis

BACKGROUND: The transtheoretical model has been successful in promoting health behavior change in general and clinical populations. However, there is little knowledge about the application of the transtheoretical model to explain physical activity behavior in individuals with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis. The aim was to examine patterns of (1) physical activity and (2) mediators of behavior change (self-efficacy, decisional balance, and processes of change) across stages of change in individuals with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis.

METHODS: Fifty-five subjects with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis (mean age ± SD = 63 ± 10 y) had physical activity assessed over 7 d using an accelerometer. Each component of the transtheoretical model was assessed using validated questionnaires. Subjects were divided into groups depending on stage of change: Group 1 (pre-contemplation and contemplation; n = 10), Group 2 (preparation; n = 20), and Group 3 (action and maintenance; n = 25). Statistical analyses included one-way analysis of variance and Tukey-Kramer post hoc tests.

RESULTS: Physical activity variables were significantly (P < .05) higher in Group 3 (action and maintenance) compared with Group 2 (preparation) and Group 1 (pre-contemplation and contemplation). For self-efficacy, there were no significant differences between groups for mean scores (P = .14). Decisional balance cons (barriers to being physically active) were significantly lower in Group 3 versus Group 2 (P = .032). For processes of change, substituting alternatives (substituting inactive options for active options) was significantly higher in Group 3 versus Group 1 (P = .01), and enlisting social support (seeking out social support to increase and maintain physical activity) was significantly lower in Group 3 versus Group 2 (P = .038).

CONCLUSIONS: The pattern of physical activity across stages of change is consistent with the theoretical predictions of the transtheoretical model. Constructs of the transtheoretical model that appear to be important at different stages of change include decisional balance cons, substituting alternatives, and enlisting social support. This study provides support to explore transtheoretical model-based physical activity interventions in individuals with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis.