Wind generation output during cold weather-driven electricity demand peaks in Ireland

Recent cold winters and prolonged periods of low wind speeds have prompted concerns about the increasing penetration of wind generation in the Irish and other northern European power systems. On the combined Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland system there was in excess of 1.5 GW of installed wind power in January 2010. As the penetration of these variable, non-dispatchable generators increases, power systems are becoming more sensitive to weather events on the supply side as well as on the demand side. In the temperate climate of Ireland, sensitivity of supply to weather is mainly due to wind variability while demand sensitivity is driven by space heating or cooling loads. The interplay of these two weather-driven effects is of particular concern if demand spikes driven by low temperatures coincide with periods of low winds. In December 2009 and January 2010 Ireland experienced a prolonged spell of unusually cold conditions. During much of this time, wind generation output was low due to low wind speeds. The impacts of this event are presented as a case study of the effects of weather extremes on power systems with high penetrations of variable renewable generation.

Intelligent demand response electric water heating to integrate wind power in Ireland

Dwindling fossil fuel resources and pressures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will result in a more diverse range of generation portfolios for future electricity systems. Irrespective of the portfolio mix the overarching requirement for all electricity suppliers and system operators is that supply instantaneously meets demand and that robust operating standards are maintained to ensure a consistent supply of high quality electricity to end-users. Therefore all electricity market participants will ultimately need to use a variety of tools to balance the power system. Thus the role of demand side management (DSM) with energy storage will be paramount to integrate future diverse generation portfolios. Electric water heating (EWH) has been studied previously, particularly at the domestic level to provide load control, peak shave and to benefit end-users financially with lower bills, particularly in vertically integrated monopolies. In this paper, a continuous Direct Load Control (DLC) EWH algorithm is applied in a liberalized market environment using actual historical electricity system and market data to examine the potential energy savings, cost reductions and electricity system operational improvements.

Response of residential electricity demand to price: The effect of measurement error

In this paper we present an empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity using annual aggregate data at the state level for 48 US states from 1995 to 2007. Earlier literature has examined residential energy consumption at the state level using annual or monthly data, focusing on the variation in price elasticities of demand across states or regions, but has failed to recognize or address two major issues. The first is that, when fitting dynamic panel models, the lagged consumption term in the right-hand side of the demand equation is endogenous. This has resulted in potentially inconsistent estimates of the long-run price elasticity of demand. The second is that energy price is likely mismeasured.

An evaluation of the effect of altering nutrition and nutritional strategies in early lactation on reproductive performance and estrous behavior of high-yielding Holstein-Friesian dairy cows

Reproductive performance in the high-yielding dairy cow has severely decreased in the last 40 yr. The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness of 4 nutritional strategies in improving the reproductive performance of high-yielding dairy cows. It was hypothesized that offering cows a high-starch ration in early lactation would enhance the onset of luteal activity, and that decreasing the severity of negative energy balance in the early postcalving period would improve reproductive parameters. Nutritional regimens aimed at improving fertility were applied to 96 Holstein-Friesian dairy animals. Upon calving, animals were allocated in a balanced manner to one of 4 dietary treatments. Primiparous animals were balanced according to live weight, body condition score and calving date. Multiparous animals were balanced according to parity, previous lactation milk yield, liveweight, body condition score and calving date. Treatment 1 was based on an industry best practice diet (control) to contain 170 g of crude protein/kg of dry matter. Treatment 2 was an individual cow feeding strategy, whereby the energy balance (EB) of individual animals was managed so as to achieve a predetermined target daily EB profile (+/- 10 MJ/d). Treatment 3 was a high-starch/high-fat combination treatment, whereby an insulinogenic (high-starch) diet was offered in early lactation to encourage cyclicity and followed by a lipogenic (low-starch, high-fat) diet to promote embryo development. Treatment 4 was a low-protein diet, containing 140 g of crude protein/kg of dry matter, supplemented with protected methionine at an inclusion level of 40 g per animal per day. The nutritional strategies implemented in this study had no statistically significant effects on cow fertility measures, which included the onset of luteal activity, conception rate, in-calf rate, and the incidence of atypical cycles. The individual cow feeding strategy improved EB in early lactation but had no benefit on conception rate to first insemination. However, conception rate to second insemination, 100-d pregnancy rate (from the commencement of breeding), and overall pregnancy rate tended to be higher in this group. The high-starch/high-fat treatment tended to decrease the proportion of delayed ovulations and increase the proportion of animals cycling by d 50 postcalving. Animals that failed to conceive to first insemination had a significantly longer luteal phase in the first cycle postpartum and a longer inter-ovulatory interval in the second cycle postpartum. With regards to estrous behavior, results indicate that as the size of the sexually active group increased, the intensity of estrus and the expression of mounting or attempting to mount another cow also increased. Furthermore, cows that became pregnant displayed more intense estrous behavior than cows that failed to become pregnant.

Site choices in recreational demand: a matter of utility maximization or regret minimization?

This paper compares the Random Regret Minimization and the Random Utility Maximization models for determining recreational choice. The Random Regret approach is based on the idea that, when choosing, individuals aim to minimize their regret – regret being defined as what one experiences when a non-chosen alternative in a choice set performs better than a chosen one in relation to one or more attributes. The Random Regret paradigm, recently developed in transport economics, presents a tractable, regret-based alternative to the dominant choice paradigm based on Random Utility. Using data from a travel cost study exploring factors that influence kayakers’ site-choice decisions in the Republic of Ireland, we estimate both the traditional Random Utility multinomial logit model (RU-MNL) and the Random Regret multinomial logit model (RR-MNL) to gain more insights into site choice decisions. We further explore whether choices are driven by a utility maximization or a regret minimization paradigm by running a binary logit model to examine the likelihood of the two decision choice paradigms using site visits and respondents characteristics as explanatory variables. In addition to being one of the first studies to apply the RR-MNL to an environmental good, this paper also represents the first application of the RR-MNL to compute the Logsum to test and strengthen conclusions on welfare impacts of potential alternative policy scenarios.