Estimating the masses of extra-solar planets

All extra-solar planet masses that have been derived spectroscopically are lower limits since the inclination of the orbit to our line-of-sight is unknown except for transiting systems. In theory, however, it is possible to determine the inclination angle, i, between the rotation axis of a star and an observer's line-of-sight from measurements of the projected equatorial velocity (v sin i), the stellar rotation period (P(rot)) and the stellar radius (R(*)). For stars which host planetary systems this allows the removal of the sin i dependency of extra-solar planet masses derived from spectroscopic observations under the assumption that the planetary orbits lie perpendicular to the stellar rotation axis.
We have carried out an extensive literature search and present a catalogue of v sin i, P(rot) and R(*) estimates for stars hosting extra-solar planets. In addition, we have used Hipparcos parallaxes and the Barnes-Evans relationship to further supplement the R(*) estimates obtained from the literature. Using this catalogue, we have obtained sin i estimates using a Markov-chain Monte Carlo analysis. This technique allows proper 1 Sigma two-tailed confidence limits to be placed on the derived sin i's along with the transit probability for each planet to be determined.
While we find that a small proportion of systems yield sin i's significantly greater than 1, most likely due to poor P(rot) estimations, the large majority are acceptable. We are further encouraged by the cases where we have data on transiting systems, as the technique indicates inclinations of similar to 90 degrees and high transit probabilities. In total, we are able to estimate the true masses of 133 extra-solar planets. Of these 133 extra-solar planets, only six have revised masses that place them above the 13M(J) deuterium burning limit; four of those six extra-solar planet candidates were already suspected to lie above the deuterium burning limit before correcting their masses for the sin i dependency. Our work reveals a population of high-mass extra-solar planets with low eccentricities, and we speculate that these extra-solar planets may represent the signature of different planetary formation mechanisms at work. Finally, we discuss future observations that should improve the robustness of this technique.

A lower mass for the exoplanet WASP-21b

We present high-precision transit observations of the exoplanet WASP-21b, obtained with the Rapid Imager to Search for Exoplanets instrument mounted on the 2.0-m Liverpool Telescope. A transit model is fitted, coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo routine, to derive accurate system parameters. The two new high-precision transits allow us to estimate the stellar density directly from the light curve. Our analysis suggests that WASP-21 is evolving off the main sequence which led to a previous overestimation of the stellar density. Using isochrone interpolation, we find a stellar mass of 0.86 ± 0.04 Msun, which is significantly lower than previously reported (1.01 ± 0.03 Msun). Consequently, we find a lower planetary mass of 0.27 ± 0.01 MJup. A lower inclination (87?4 ± 0?3) is also found for the system than previously reported, resulting in a slightly larger stellar (R*= 1.10 ± 0.03 Rsun) and planetary radius (Rp= 1.14 ± 0.04 RJup). The planet radius suggests a hydrogen/helium composition with no core which strengthens the correlation between planetary density and host star metallicity. A new ephemeris is determined for the system, i.e. T0= 245 5084.519 74 ± 0.000 20 (HJD) and P= 4.322 5060 ± 0.000 0031 d. We found no transit timing variations in WASP-21b.

High-precision transit observations of the exoplanet WASP-13b with the RISE instrument

WASP-13b is a sub-Jupiter mass exoplanet orbiting a G1V type star with a period of 4.35 d.The current uncertainty in its impact parameter (0 < b < 0.46) results in poorly definedstellar and planetary radii. To better constrain the impact parameter, we have obtained highprecisiontransit observations with the rapid imager to search for exoplanets (RISE) instrumentmounted on 2.0-m Liverpool Telescope. We present four new transits which are fitted witha Markov chain Monte Carlo routine to derive accurate system parameters. We found anorbital inclination of 85. ◦ 2 ± 0. ◦ 3 resulting in stellar and planetary radii of 1.56 ± 0.04 Rand 1.39 ± 0.05RJup, respectively. This suggests that the host star has evolved off the mainsequence and is in the hydrogen-shell-burning phase.We also discuss how the limb darkeningaffects the derived system parameters.With a density of 0.17ρJ,WASP-13b joins the group oflow-density planets whose radii are too large to be explained by standard irradiation models.We derive a new ephemeris for the system, T0 = 245 5575.5136 ± 0.0016 (HJD) and P =4.353 011 ± 0.000 013 d. The planet equilibrium temperature (Tequ = 1500 K) and the brighthost star (V = 10.4mag) make it a good candidate for follow-up atmospheric studies.

Mean field approach for tracking similar objects

In this paper, we consider the problem of tracking similar objects. We show how a mean field approach can be used to deal with interacting targets and we compare it with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Two mean field implementations are presented. The first one is more general and uses particle filtering. We discuss some simplifications of the base algorithm that reduce the computation time. The second one is based on suitable Gaussian approximations of probability densities that lead to a set of self-consistent equations for the means and covariances. These equations give the Kalman solution if there is no interaction. Experiments have been performed on two kinds of sequences. The first kind is composed of a single long sequence of twenty roaming ants and was previously analysed using MCMC. In this case, our mean field algorithms obtain substantially better results. The second kind corresponds to selected sequences of a football match in which the interaction avoids tracker coalescence in situations where independent trackers fail.

Evaluation of genetic substructure in the Irish Study of High-Density Schizophrenia Families

The presence of genetic substructure has the potential to diminish the chances of detecting a linkage signal. Using a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure developed by Pritchard and colleagues and implemented in the program STRUCTURE, we evaluated the evidence for genetic substructure using genotypes from 37 microsatellite markers in affected individuals selected at random from 263 multiplex families in the Irish Study of High-Density Schizophrenia Families. We found no evidence for the presence of genetic substructure in this sample.

Characterization of the Kepler-101 planetary system with HARPS-N. A hot super-Neptune with an Earth-sized low-mass companion

We characterize the planetary system Kepler-101 by performing a combined differential evolution Markov chain Monte Carlo analysisof Kepler data and forty radial velocities obtained with the HARPS-N spectrograph. This system was previously validated and iscomposed of a hot super-Neptune, Kepler-101b, and an Earth-sized planet, Kepler-101c. These two planets orbit the slightly evolvedand metal-rich G-type star in 3.49 and 6.03 days, respectively. With mass Mp = 51.1+5.1−4.7 M⊕, radius Rp = 5.77+0.85−0.79 R⊕, and density ρp = 1.45+0.83 −0.48 g cm−3, Kepler-101b is the first fully characterized super-Neptune, and its density suggests that heavy elements makeup a significant fraction of its interior; more than 60% of its total mass. Kepler-101c has a radius of 1.25+0.19−0.17 R⊕, which implies theabsence of any H/He envelope, but its mass could not be determined because of the relative faintness of the parent star for highly precise radial-velocity measurements (Kp = 13.8) and the limited number of radial velocities. The 1σ upper limit, Mp < 3.8 M⊕, excludes a pure iron composition with a probability of 68.3%. The architecture of the planetary system Kepler-101 − containing aclose-in giant planet and an outer Earth-sized planet with a period ratio slightly larger than the 3:2 resonance − is certainly of interest for scenarios of planet formation and evolution. This system does not follow the previously reported trend that the larger planet has the longer period in the majority of Kepler systems of planet pairs with at least one Neptune-sized or larger planet.

Population Mobility Dynamics Estimated from Mobile Telephony Data

In the last decade, mobile phones and mobile devices using mobile cellular telecommunication network connections have become ubiquitous. In several developed countries, the penetration of such devices has surpassed 100 percent. They facilitate communication and access to large quantities of data without the requirement of a fixed location or connection. Assuming mobile phones usually are in close proximity with the user, their cellular activities and locations are indicative of the user's activities and movements. As such, those cellular devices may be considered as a large scale distributed human activity sensing platform. This paper uses mobile operator telephony data to visualize the regional flows of people across the Republic of Ireland. In addition, the use of modified Markov chains for the ranking of significant regions of interest to mobile subscribers is investigated. Methodology is then presented which demonstrates how the ranking of significant regions of interest may be used to estimate national population, results of which are found to have strong correlation with census data.

A Cross-Layer Optimized Scheme and Its Application in Mobile Multimedia Networks with QoS Provision

To cope with the rapid growth of multimedia applications that requires dynamic levels of quality of service (QoS), cross-layer (CL) design, where multiple protocol layers are jointly combined, has been considered to provide diverse QoS provisions for mobile multimedia networks. However, there is a lack of a general mathematical framework to model such CL scheme in wireless networks with different types of multimedia classes. In this paper, to overcome this shortcoming, we therefore propose a novel CL design for integrated real-time/non-real-time traffic with strict preemptive priority via a finite-state Markov chain. The main strategy of the CL scheme is to design a Markov model by explicitly including adaptive modulation and coding at the physical layer, queuing at the data link layer, and the bursty nature of multimedia traffic classes at the application layer. Utilizing this Markov model, several important performance metrics in terms of packet loss rate, delay, and throughput are examined. In addition, our proposed framework is exploited in various multimedia applications, for example, the end-to-end real-time video streaming and CL optimization, which require the priority-based QoS adaptation for different applications. More importantly, the CL framework reveals important guidelines as to optimize the network performance

Solar Flare Impulsive Phase Emission Observed with SDO/EVE

Differential emission measures (DEMs) during the impulsive phase of solar flares were constructed using observations from the EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) and the Markov-Chain Monte Carlo method. Emission lines from ions formed over the temperature range log Te = 5.8-7.2 allow the evolution of the DEM to be studied over a wide temperature range at 10 s cadence. The technique was applied to several M- and X-class flares, where impulsive phase EUV emission is observable in the disk-integrated EVE spectra from emission lines formed up to 3-4 MK and we use spatially unresolved EVE observations to infer the thermal structure of the emitting region. For the nine events studied, the DEMs exhibited a two-component distribution during the impulsive phase, a low-temperature component with peak temperature of 1-2 MK, and a broad high-temperature component from 7 to 30 MK. A bimodal high-temperature component is also found for several events, with peaks at 8 and 25 MK during the impulsive phase. The origin of the emission was verified using Atmospheric Imaging Assembly images to be the flare ribbons and footpoints, indicating that the constructed DEMs represent the spatially average thermal structure of the chromospheric flare emission during the impulsive phase.

A new statistical framework for the quantification of covariate associations with species distributions

Identifying processes that shape species geographical ranges is a prerequisite for understanding environmental change. Currently, species distribution modelling methods do not offer credible statistical tests of the relative influence of climate factors and typically ignore other processes (e.g. biotic interactions and dispersal limitation). We use a hierarchical model fitted with Markov Chain Monte Carlo to combine ecologically plausible niche structures using regression splines to describe unimodal but potentially skewed response terms. We apply spatially explicit error terms that account for (and may help identify) missing variables. Using three example distributions of European bird species, we map model results to show sensitivity to change in each covariate. We show that the overall strength of climatic association differs between species and that each species has considerable spatial variation in both the strength of the climatic association and the sensitivity to climate change. Our methods are widely applicable to many species distribution modelling problems and enable accurate assessment of the statistical importance of biotic and abiotic influences on distributions.

Transit timing variations in WASP-10b induced by stellar activity

The hot-JupiterWASP-10bwas reported by Maciejewski et al. to showtransit timing variations (TTVs) with an amplitude of ~3.5 min. These authors proposed that the observed TTVs were caused by a 0.1M_Jup perturbing companion with an orbital period of ~5.23 d, and hence, close to the outer 5:3 mean-motion resonance with WASP-10b. To test this scenario, we present eight new transit light curves of WASP-10b obtained with the Faulkes Telescope North and the Liverpool Telescope. The new light curves, together with 22 previously published ones, were modelled with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo transit fitting code. Transit depth differences reported forWASP-10b are thought to be due to starspot-induced brightness modulation of the host star. Assuming the star is brighter at the activity minimum, we favour a small planetary radius. We find Rp = 1.039^+0.043 _-0.049R_Jup in agreement with Johnson et al. and Maciejewski et al. Recent studies find no evidence for a significant eccentricity in this system. We present consistent system parameters for a circular orbit and refine the orbital ephemeris ofWASP-10b. Our homogeneously derived transit times do not support the previous claimed TTV signal, which was strongly dependent on two previously published transits that have been incorrectly normalized. Nevertheless, a linear ephemeris is not a statistically good fit to the transit times of WASP-10b. We show that the observed transit time variations are due to spot occultation features or systematics. We discuss and exemplify the effects of occultation spot features in the measured transit times and show that despite spot occultation during egress and ingress being difficult to distinguish in the transit light curves, they have a significant effect in the measured transit times. We conclude that if we account for spot features, the transit times of WASP-10b are consistent with a linear ephemeris with the exception of one transit (epoch 143) which is a partial transit. Therefore, there is currently no evidence for the existence of a companion to WASP-10b. Our results support the lack of TTVs of hot-Jupiters reported for the Kepler sample. 

Reducing Parametric Uncertainty in Limit Cycle Oscillations

The assimilation of discrete higher fidelity data points with model predictions can be used to achieve a reduction in the uncertainty of the model input parameters which generate accurate predictions. The problem investigated here involves the prediction of limit-cycle oscillations using a High-Dimensional Harmonic Balance method (HDHB). The efficiency of the HDHB method is exploited to enable calibration of structural input parameters using a Bayesian inference technique. Markov-chain Monte Carlo is employed to sample the posterior distributions. Parameter estimation is carried out on both a pitch/plunge aerofoil and Goland wing configuration. In both cases significant refinement was achieved in the distribution of possible structural parameters allowing better predictions of their
true deterministic values.