Weather Prognostics in Anglo-Saxon England

Prognostics concerning the day of the week on which kalendae ianuariae and Christmas Day fall, commonly known as the Revelatio Esdrae , purport to be a set of prophecies by the Biblical Esdras. They make predictions about the weather and other natural phenomena for the year to come, and they then extend their predictions to the field of human affairs. A remarkable number of copies of the Revelatio appear in English manuscripts from the tenth to the twelfth centuries. Some of these versions have been attributed to Bede and Abbo of Fleury as part of their computus works.

Both R. M. Liuzza and L. S. Chardonnens point out the frequent occurrence of the Revelatio in religious and scientific manuscripts and therefore reject the label of folklore, stressing instead the probable monastic origin of this prognostication. This study will provide the first complete collation and analysis of the surviving exemplars, to give as full an idea as possible of their circumstances of composition, their transmission, and their relationship to one another. It will consider how the Revelatio Esdrae was copied and used in Anglo-Saxon England, the audience to which it was addressed, and whether any conclusion can be drawn from its appearance in particular manuscripts, alongside certain other texts.

The regular occurrence of the Revelatio along with computistical material supports the case for its monastic origin and learned nature. Such a text would have been a helpful handbook to be used by monks and priests, and was among the standard holdings of continental and Anglo-Saxon monasteries and scriptoria, giving further proof of the monks’ intellectual eclecticism and their knowledge of the kinds of continental literature from which this text derives.

Hydraulic Subsurface Measurements and Hydrodynamic Modeling as Indicators for Groundwater Flow Systems in the Rotondo Granite, Central Alps (Switzerland)

Regional groundwater flow in high mountainous terrain is governed by a multitude of factors such as geology, topography, recharge conditions, structural elements such as fracturation and regional fault zones as well as man-made underground structures. By means of a numerical groundwater flow model, we consider the impact of deep underground tunnels and of an idealized major fault zone on the groundwater flow systems within the fractured Rotondo granite. The position of the free groundwater table as response to the above subsurface structures and, in particular, with regard to the influence of spatial distributed groundwater recharge rates is addressed. The model results show significant unsaturated zones below the mountain ridges in the study area with a thickness of up to several hundred metres. The subsurface galleries are shown to have a strong effect on the head distribution in the model domain, causing locally a reversal of natural head gradients. With respect to the position of the catchment areas to the tunnel and the corresponding type of recharge source for the tunnel inflows (i.e. glaciers or recent precipitation), as well as water table elevation, the influence of spatial distributed recharge rates is compared to uniform recharge rates. Water table elevations below the well exposed high-relief mountain ridges are observed to be more sensitive to changes in groundwater recharge rates and permeability than below ridges with less topographic relief. In the conceptual framework of the numerical simulations, the model fault zone has less influence on the groundwater table position, but more importantly acts as fast flow path for recharge from glaciated areas towards the subsurface galleries. This is in agreement with a previous study, where the imprint of glacial recharge was observed in the environmental isotope composition of groundwater sampled in the subsurface galleries. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wind generation output during cold weather-driven electricity demand peaks in Ireland

Recent cold winters and prolonged periods of low wind speeds have prompted concerns about the increasing penetration of wind generation in the Irish and other northern European power systems. On the combined Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland system there was in excess of 1.5 GW of installed wind power in January 2010. As the penetration of these variable, non-dispatchable generators increases, power systems are becoming more sensitive to weather events on the supply side as well as on the demand side. In the temperate climate of Ireland, sensitivity of supply to weather is mainly due to wind variability while demand sensitivity is driven by space heating or cooling loads. The interplay of these two weather-driven effects is of particular concern if demand spikes driven by low temperatures coincide with periods of low winds. In December 2009 and January 2010 Ireland experienced a prolonged spell of unusually cold conditions. During much of this time, wind generation output was low due to low wind speeds. The impacts of this event are presented as a case study of the effects of weather extremes on power systems with high penetrations of variable renewable generation.

Impact of weather conditions on electric vehicle performance

Seasonal and day-to-day variations in travel behaviour and performance of private passenger vehicles can be partially explained by changes in weather conditions. Likewise, in the electricity sector, weather affects energy demand. The impact of weather conditions on private passenger vehicle performance, usership statistics and travel behaviour has been studied for conventional, internal combustion engine, vehicles. Similarly, weather-driven variability in electricity demand and generation has been investigated widely. The aim of these analyses in both sectors is to improve energy efficiency, reduce consumption in peak hours and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the potential effects of seasonal weather variations on electric vehicle usage have not yet been investigated. In Ireland the government has set a target requiring 10% of all vehicles in the transport fleet to be powered by electricity by 2020 to meet part of its European Union obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase energy efficiency. This paper fills this knowledge gap by compiling some of the published information available for internal combustion engine vehicles and applying the lessons learned and results to electric vehicles with an analysis of historical weather data in Ireland and electricity market data in a number of what-if scenarios. Areas particularly impacted by weather conditions are battery performance, energy consumption and choice of transportation mode by private individuals.

Hydrodynamic cavitation in micro channels with channel sizes of 100 and 750 micrometers

Decreasing the constriction size and residence time in hydrodynamic cavitation is predicted to give increased hot spot temperatures at bubble collapse and increased radical formation rate. Cavitation in a 100 x 100 mu m(2) rectangular micro channel and in a circular 750 mu m diameter milli channel has been investigated with computational fluid dynamics software and with imaging and radical production experiments. No radical production has been measured in the micro channel. This is probably because there is no spherically symmetrical collapse of the gas pockets in the channel which yield high hot spot temperatures. The potassium iodide oxidation yield in the presence of chlorohydrocarbons in the milli channel of up to 60 nM min(-1) is comparable to values reported on hydrodynamic cavitation in literature, but lower than values for ultrasonic cavitation. These small constrictions can create high apparent cavitation collapse frequencies.

Liquid-Liquid Flow in a Capillary Microreactor: Hydrodynamic Flow Patterns and Extraction Performance

The capillary micro reactor, with four stable operating flow patterns and a throughput range from grams per hour to kilograms per hour, presents an attractive alternative to chip-based and microstructured reactors for laboratory- and pilot-scale applications. In this article, results for the extraction of 2-butanol from toluene under different flow patterns in a water/toluene flow in long capillary microreactors are presented. The effects of the capillary length (0.4-2.2 m), flow rate (0.1-12 mL/min), and aqueous-to-organic volumetric flow ratio (0.25-9) on the slug, bubbly, parallel, and annular flow hydrodynamics were investigated. Weber-number-dependent flow maps were composed for capillary lengths of 0.4 and 2 m that were used to interpret the flow pattern formation in terms of surface tension and inertia forces. When the capillary length was decreased from 2 to 0.4 m, a transition from annular to parallel flow was observed. The capillary length had little influence on slug and bubbly flows. The flow patterns were evaluated in terms of stability, surface-to-volume ratio, throughput, and extraction efficiency. Slug and bubbly flow operations yielded 100% thermodynamic extraction efficiency, and increasing the aqueous-to-organic volumetric ratio to 9 allowed for 99% 2-butanol extraction. The parallel and annular flow operating windows were limited by the capillary length, thus yielding maximum 2-butanol extractions of 30% and 47% for parallel and annular flows, respectively.

Assessing the Impact of Technology on Aircraft Systems using Technology Impact Forecasting

In today’s atmosphere of constrained defense spending and reduced research budgets, determining how to allocate resources for research and design has become a critical and challenging task. In the area of aircraft design there are many promising technologies to be explored, yet limited funds with which to explore them. In addition, issues concerning uncertainty in technology readiness as well as the quantification of the impact of a technology (or combinations of technologies), are of key importance during the design process. This paper presents a methodology that details a comprehensive and structured process in which to quantitatively explore the effects of technology for a given baseline aircraft. This process, called Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF), involves the creation of a assessment environment for use in conjunction with defined technology scenarios, and will have a significant impact on resource allocation strategies for defense acquisition. The advantages and limitations of the method are discussed. In addition, an example TIF application, that of an Uninhabited Combat Aerial Vehicle, is presented and serves to illustrate the applicability of this methodology to a military system.

Identifying optimal sites for natural recovery and restoration of impacted biogenic habitats in a special area of conservation using hydrodynamic and habitat suitability modelling

Selection of sites for successful restoration of impacted shellfish populations depends on understanding the dispersion capability and habitat requirements of the species involved. In Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, the horse mussel (Modiolus modiolus) biogenic reefs cover only a fraction of their historical range with the remaining reefs badly damaged and requiring restoration. Previous experimental trials suggest that translocation of horse mussels accelerates reef recovery and has therefore been proposed as a suitable restoration technique. We used a series of coupled hydrodynamic and particle dispersal models to assess larval dispersion from remnant and translocated populations to identify suitable areas for adult live M. modiolus translocation in Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland. A maximum entropy model (MAXENT) was used to identify if dispersing larvae could reach habitat suitable for adult M. modiolus. From these we predicted if translocated mussels will reseed themselves or be able to act as larval sources for nearby reefs. The dispersal models showed that the remnant M. modiolus populations are largely self-recruiting with little connectivity between them. The majority of larvae settled near the sources and movement was largely dependent on the tides and not influenced by wind or waves. Higher reef elevation resulted in larvae being able to disperse further away from the release point. However, larval numbers away from the source population are likely to be too low for successful recruitment. There was also little connectivity between the Irish Sea and Strangford Lough as any larvae entering the Lough remained predominantly in the Strangford Narrows. The areas covered by these self-seeding populations are suitable for M. modiolus translocation according to the MAXENT model. As a result of this work and in conjunction with other field work we propose a combination of total protection of all remaining larval sources and small scale translocations onto suitable substrata in each of the identified self-recruiting areas.

A Hydrodynamic Modelling Framework for Strangford Lough Part 1: Tidal Model

Hydrodynamic models are a powerful tool that can be used by a wide range of end users to assist in predicting the effects of both physical and biological processes on local environmental conditions. This paper describes the development of a tidal model for Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, a body of water renowned for the location of the first grid-connected tidal turbine, SeaGen, as well as the UK’s third Marine Nature Reserve. Using MIKE 21 modelling software, the development, calibration and performance of the modelare described in detail. Strangford Lough has a complex flow pattern with high flows through the Narrows (~3.5 m/s) linking the main body of the Lough to the Irish Sea and intricate flow patterns around the numerous islands. With the aid of good quality tidal and current data obtained throughout the Lough during the model development, the surface elevation and current magnitude between the observed and numerical model were almost identical with model skill >0.98 and >0.84 respectively. The applicability of the model is such that it can be used as an important tool for the prediction of important ecological processes as well as engineering applications within Strangford Lough.