NON-GAUSSIAN STATISTICS OF OIL PRICING TIME-SERIES: A CASE STUDY

The stochastic nature of oil price fluctuations is investigated over a twelve-year period, borrowing feedback from an existing database (USA Energy Information Administration database, available online). We evaluate the scaling exponents of the fluctuations by employing different statistical analysis methods, namely rescaled range analysis (R/S), scale windowed variance analysis (SWV) and the generalized Hurst exponent (GH) method. Relying on the scaling exponents obtained, we apply a rescaling procedure to investigate the complex characteristics of the probability density functions (PDFs) dominating oil price fluctuations. It is found that PDFs exhibit scale invariance, and in fact collapse onto a single curve when increments are measured over microscales (typically less than 30 days). The time evolution of the distributions is well fitted by a Levy-type stable distribution. The relevance of a Levy distribution is made plausible by a simple model of nonlinear transfer. Our results also exhibit a degree of multifractality as the PDFs change and converge toward to a Gaussian distribution at the macroscales.

A splitting result for the algebraic K-theory of projective toric schemes

Suppose X is a projective toric scheme defined over a ring R and equipped with an ample line bundle L . We prove that its K-theory has a direct summand of the form K(R)(k+1) where k = 0 is minimal such that L?(-k-1) is not acyclic. Using a combinatorial description of quasi-coherent sheaves we interpret and prove this result for a ring R which is either commutative, or else left noetherian.

On Quillen's calculation of graded K-theory

We adapt Quillen’s calculation of graded K-groups of Z-graded rings with support in N to graded K-theory, allowing gradings in a product Z×G with G an arbitrary group. This in turn allows us to use induction and calculate graded K-theory of Z -multigraded rings.

Efficiently exploring architectural design spaces via predictive modeling

Architects use cycle-by-cycle simulation to evaluate design choices and understand tradeoffs and interactions among design parameters. Efficiently exploring exponential-size design spaces with many interacting parameters remains an open problem: the sheer number of experiments renders detailed simulation intractable. We attack this problem via an automated approach that builds accurate, confident predictive design-space models. We simulate sampled points, using the results to teach our models the function describing relationships among design parameters. The models produce highly accurate performance estimates for other points in the space, can be queried to predict performance impacts of architectural changes, and are very fast compared to simulation, enabling efficient discovery of tradeoffs among parameters in different regions. We validate our approach via sensitivity studies on memory hierarchy and CPU design spaces: our models generally predict IPC with only 1-2% error and reduce required simulation by two orders of magnitude. We also show the efficacy of our technique for exploring chip multiprocessor (CMP) design spaces: when trained on a 1% sample drawn from a CMP design space with 250K points and up to 55x performance swings among different system configurations, our models predict performance with only 4-5% error on average. Our approach combines with techniques to reduce time per simulation, achieving net time savings of three-four orders of magnitude. Copyright © 2006 ACM.

Model categories for orthogonal calculus

We restate the notion of orthogonal calculus in terms of model categories. This provides a cleaner set of results and makes the role of O(n)-equivariance clearer. Thus we develop model structures for the category of n-polynomial and n-homogeneous functors, along with Quillen pairs relating them. We then classify n-homogeneous functors, via a zig-zag of Quillen equivalences, in terms of spectra with an O(n)-action. This improves upon the classification theorem of Weiss. As an application, we develop a variant of orthogonal calculus by replacing topological spaces with orthogonal spectra.

Chase over the Nile: The Social Evolution of Riverine Landscape in Urban Egypt

Throughout its history, Cairo evolved as a regional metropolis that sprawls along the banks of the Nile accumulating narratives of evolving social landscape. Overlooking the Nile reflected a privileged social position and place for the urban elite. In spatial terms, the urban bourgeoisie tend to develop living havens in enclaves that are distant from the populace’s everyday life. Ironically, exclusive settlements only attract urban growth further in their direction. This chapter offers an analytical reading of the socio-spatial structure of Cairo following the emergence and decline of a series bourgeoisie quarters along the shores of the Nile. It reports urban narratives based on archival records, documents and investigation of historical texts and travelers’ accounts. This essay argues that cities are essentially social constructs in which hierarchy and connectivity are fundamental aspects of its economic and spatial logic. Through social ambition and desire for upgrade, middle class infiltrate into bourgeoisie havens and sometimes encircle it, seeking better living condition inscribed by social mobility and connectivity to centres of wealth and power. Being both natural barrier and cohesive spine, the Nile helped Cairo to develop successive nucleuses of highly crafted urban experiences that have left their imprints on the contemporary urban scene.

Control Patterns in Contracting-Out Relationships: It Matters What You Do, Not Who You Are

The contracting-out of public services has often been accompanied by a strong academic focus on the emergence of new governance forms, and a general neglect of the processes and practices through which contracted-out services are controlled and monitored. To fill this gap, we draw on contracting-out and inter-organizational control literatures to explore the adoption of control mechanisms for public service provision at the municipal level and the variables that can explain their choice. Our results, based on a survey of Italian municipalities, show that in the presence of contracting-out, market-, hierarchy- and trust-based controls display different intensities, can co-exist and are explained by different variables. Service characteristics are more effective in explaining market- and hierarchy-based controls than relationship characteristics. Trust-based controls are the most widespread, but cannot be explained by the variables traditionally identified in contracting-out and inter-organizational control studies.

6-T SRAM cell design with nanoscale double-gate SOI MOSFETs: impact of source/drain engineering and circuit topology

The impact of source/drain engineering on the performance of a six-transistor (6-T) static random access memory (SRAM) cell, based on 22 nm double-gate (DG) SOI MOSFETs, has been analyzed using mixed-mode simulation, for three different circuit topologies for low voltage operation. The trade-offs associated with the various conflicting requirements relating to read/write/standby operations have been evaluated comprehensively in terms of eight performance metrics, namely retention noise margin, static noise margin, static voltage/current noise margin, write-ability current, write trip voltage/current and leakage current. Optimal design parameters with gate-underlap architecture have been identified to enhance the overall SRAM performance, and the influence of parasitic source/drain resistance and supply voltage scaling has been investigated. A gate-underlap device designed with a spacer-to-straggle (s/sigma) ratio in the range 2-3 yields improved SRAM performance metrics, regardless of circuit topology. An optimal two word-line double-gate SOI 6-T SRAM cell design exhibits a high SNM similar to 162 mV, I-wr similar to 35 mu A and low I-leak similar to 70 pA at V-DD = 0.6 V, while maintaining SNM similar to 30% V-DD over the supply voltage (V-DD) range of 0.4-0.9 V.

Interaction strength, food web topology and the relative importance of species in food webs

P>1. We established complex marine communities, consisting of over 100 species, in large subtidal experimental mesocosms. We measured the strength of direct interactions and the net strength of direct and indirect interactions between the species in those communities, using a combination of theoretical and empirical approaches.