Habitat Isolation Reduces the Temporal Stability of Island Ecosystems in the Face of Flood Disturbance

Natural ecosystems are increasingly exposed to multiple anthropogenic stressors, including land-use change, deforestation, agricultural intensification, and urbanisation, all of which have led to widespread habitat fragmentation, which is also likely to be amplified further by predicted climate change. The potential interactive effects of these different stressors cannot be determined by studying each in isolation, although such synergies have been largely ignored in ecological field studies to date. Here, we use a model system of naturally fragmented islands in a braided river network, which is exposed to periodic inundation, to investigate the interactive effects of habitat isolation and flood disturbance. Food web structure was similar across the islands during periods of hydrological stability, but several key properties were altered in the aftermath of flood disturbance, based on distance of the islands from the regional source pool of species: taxon richness and mean food chain length declined with habitat isolation after flooding, while the proportion of basal species increased. Greater species turnover through time reflected the slower process of re-colonisation on the more distant islands following disturbance. Increased variability of several food web properties over a 1-year period highlighted the reduced temporal stability of isolated habitat fragments. Many of these effects reflected the differential successes of predator and prey species at re-colonising the islands: even though larger, more mobile consumers may reach the more distant islands first, they cannot establish populations until the lower trophic levels have successfully reassembled. These results highlight the susceptibility of fragmented ecosystems to environmental perturbations. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Later prehistoric vegetation dynamics and Bronze Age agriculture at Hobbister, Orkney, Scotland

The Bronze Age in Britain was a time of major social and cultural changes, reflected in the division of the landscape into field systems and the establishment of new belief systems and ritual practices. Several hypotheses have been advanced to explain these changes, and assessment of many of them is dependent on the availability of detailed palaeoenvironmental data from the sites concerned. This paper explores the development of a later prehistoric landscape in Orkney, where a Bronze Age field system and an apparently ritually-deposited late Bronze Age axe head are located in an area of deep blanket peat from which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental sequences have been recovered. There is no indication that the field system was constructed to facilitate agricultural intensification, and it more likely reflects a cultural response to social fragmentation associated with a more dispersed settlement pattern. There is evidence for wetter conditions during the later Bronze Age, and the apparent votive deposit may reflect the efforts of the local population to maintain community integrity during a time of perceptible environmental change leading to loss of farmland. The study emphasises the advantages of close integration of palaeoenvironmental and archaeological data for interpretation of prehistoric human activity. The palaeoenvironmental data also provide further evidence for the complexity of prehistoric woodland communities in Orkney, hinting at greater diversity than is often assumed. Additionally, differing dates for woodland decline in the two sequences highlight the dangers of over-extrapolation from trends observed in a single pollen profile, even at a very local scale.

Testing the cause of the Sphagnum austinii (Sull. ex Aust.) decline: Multiproxy evidence from a raised bog in Northern Ireland

We use a multiproxy palaeoecological dataset from Dead Island bog in Northern Ireland to examine the cause of the Sphagnum austinii (Sphagnum imbricatum) decline. The disappearance of this species from the peat record occurred just after the ‘AD 860’ tephra layer and is coeval with a rapid increase in bog surface wetness and increased mineral dust and charcoal abundance. Although it is difficult to identify one specific cause of the decline, the evidence for increased soil-derived dust is apparent and is supported by regional tephra-dated pollen diagrams that reveal extensive landscape changes due to agricultural intensification in early Medieval Ireland. As the decline of S. austinii occurred much later (~ AD 1860) in Fallahogy bog (~ 1.2 km away), we suggest that the decline of S. austinii at Dead Island was caused by a combination of fire and the deposition of soil-derived dust. We suggest that future studies should consider the use of multiple cores from each site to examine the within-site variability of the decline of S. austinii.

Hydroclimatic shifts in northeast Thailand during the last two millennia - the record of Lake Pa Kho

The Southeast Asian mainland is located in the central path of the Asian summer monsoon, a region where paleoclimatic data are still sparse. Here we present a multi-proxy (TOC, C/N, δ¹³C, biogenic silica, and XRF elemental data) study of a 1.5m sediment/peat sequence from Lake Pa Kho, northeast Thailand, which is supported by 20 AMS ¹⁴C ages. Hydroclimatic reconstructions for Pa Kho suggest a strengthened summer monsoon between BC 170-AD 370, AD 800-960, and after AD 1450; and a weakening of the summer monsoon between AD 370-800, and AD 1300-1450. Increased run-off and a higher nutrient supply after AD 1700 can be linked to agricultural intensification and land-use changes in the region. This study fills an important gap in data coverage with respect to summer monsoon variability over Southeast Asia during the past 2000 years and enables the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to be inferred based on comparisons with other regional studies. Intervals of strengthened/weaker summer monsoon rainfall suggest that the mean position of the ITCZ was located as far north as 35°N between BC 170-AD 370 and AD 800-960, whereas it likely did not reach above 17°N during the drought intervals of AD 370-800 and AD 1300-1450. The spatial pattern of rainfall variation seems to have changed after AD 1450, when the inferred moisture history for Pa Kho indicates a more southerly location of the mean position of the summer ITCZ.

Minimal residual disease detection in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia patients at multiple time-points reveals high levels of concordance between molecular and immunophenotypic approaches

In this single centre study of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) patients treated on the Medical Research Council UKALL 97/99 protocols, it was determined that minimal residual disease (MRD) detected by real time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RQ-PCR) and 3-colour flow cytometry (FC) displayed high levels of qualitative concordance when evaluated at multiple time-points during treatment (93.38%), and a combined use of both approaches allowed a multi time-point evaluation of MRD kinetics for 90% (53/59) of the initial cohort. At diagnosis, MRD markers with sensitivity of at least 0.01% were identified by RQ-PCR detection of fusion gene transcripts, IGH/TRG rearrangements, and FC. Using a combined RQ-PCR and FC approach, the evaluation of 367 follow-up BM samples revealed that the detection of MRD >1% at Day 15 (P = 0.04), >0.01% at the end of induction (P = 0.02), >0.01% at the end of consolidation (P = 0.01), >0.01% prior to the first delayed intensification (P = 0.01), and >0.1% prior to the second delayed intensification and continued maintenance (P = 0.001) were all associated with relapse and, based on early time-points (end of induction and consolidation) a significant log-rank trend (P = 0.0091) was noted between survival curves for patients stratified into high, intermediate and low-risk MRD groups.

Civilianizing Civil Conflict: Civilian Defense Militias and the Logic of Violence in Intra-State Conflict

This article examines how civilian defense militias shape violence during civil war. We define civilian defense forces as a sedentary and defensive form of pro-government militia that incumbents often use to harness the participation of civilians during a counterinsurgency campaign. We argue that civilian defense forces reduce the problem of insurgent identification. This leads to a reduction in state violence against civilians. However, we also claim that these actors undermine civilian support for insurgents, which leads to an increase in rebel violence against civilians and overall intensification of conflict. A statistical analysis of government and rebel violence against civilians from 1981 to 2005, and a qualitative assessment of a civilian defense force operating in Iraq from 2005 to 2009, offer strong support for our theoretical claims. These findings provide further insight into pro-government militias and their effects on violence. They also have wider ethical implications for the use of civilian collaborators during civil war.

Protocol for the isotoxic intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) in stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC): a feasibility study.

Introduction The majority of stage III patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are unsuitable for concurrent chemoradiotherapy, the non-surgical gold standard of care. As the alternative treatment options of sequential chemoradiotherapy and radiotherapy alone are associated with high local failure rates, various intensification strategies have been employed. There is evidence to suggest that altered fractionation using hyperfractionation, acceleration, dose escalation, and individualisation may be of benefit. The MAASTRO group have pioneered the concept of ‘isotoxic’ radiotherapy allowing for individualised dose escalation using hyperfractionated accelerated radiotherapy based on predefined normal tissue constraints. This study aims to evaluate whether delivering isotoxic radiotherapy using intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) is achievable.

Methods and analysis Isotoxic IMRT is a multicentre feasibility study. From June 2014, a total of 35 patients from 7 UK centres, with a proven histological or cytological diagnosis of inoperable NSCLC, unsuitable for concurrent chemoradiotherapy will be recruited. A minimum of 2 cycles of induction chemotherapy is mandated before starting isotoxic radiotherapy. The dose of radiation will be increased until one or more of the organs at risk tolerance or the maximum dose of 79.2 Gy is reached. The primary end point is feasibility, with accrual rates, local control and overall survival our secondary end points. Patients will be followed up for 5 years.

Ethics and dissemination The study has received ethical approval (REC reference: 13/NW/0480) from the National Research Ethics Service (NRES) Committee North West—Greater Manchester South. The trial is conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki and Good Clinical Practice (GCP). The trial results will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and presented internationally.

Trial registration number NCT01836692; Pre-results.