Extinction risk from climate change

Climate change over the past ,30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species1,2 and has been implicated in one species-level extinction3. Using projections of species’ distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a powerlaw relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (,18%) than mid-range (,24%) and maximum change (,35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse

HTS Machines as Enabling Technology for All-Electric Airborne Vehicles

Environmental protection has now become paramount as evidence mounts to support the thesis of human activity-driven global warming. A global reduction of the emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere is therefore needed and new technologies have to be considered. A large part of the emissions come from transportation vehicles, including cars, trucks and airplanes, due to the nature of their combustion-based propulsion systems. Our team has been working for several years on the development of high power density superconducting motors for aircraft propulsion and fuel cell based power systems for aircraft. This paper investigates the feasibility of all-electric aircraft based on currently available technology. Electric propulsion would require the development of high power density electric propulsion motors, generators, power management and distribution systems. The requirements in terms of weight and volume of these components cannot be achieved with conventional technologies; however, the use of superconductors associated with hydrogen-based power plants makes possible the design of a reasonably light power system and would therefore enable the development of all-electric aero-vehicles. A system sizing has been performed both for actuators and for primary propulsion. Many advantages would come from electrical propulsion such as better controllability of the propulsion, higher efficiency, higher availability and less maintenance needs. Superconducting machines may very well be the enabling technology for all-electric aircraft development.

Unique genetic variation at a species' rear edge is under threat from global climate change

Global climate change is having a significant effect on the distributions of a wide variety of species, causing both range shifts and population extinctions. To date, however, no consensus has emerged on how these processes will affect the range-wide genetic diversity of impacted species. It has been suggested that species that recolonized from low-latitude refugia might harbour high levels of genetic variation in rear-edge populations, and that loss of these populations could cause a disproportionately large reduction in overall genetic diversity in such taxa. In the present study, we have examined the distribution of genetic diversity across the range of the seaweed Chondrus crispus, a species that has exhibited a northward shift in its southern limit in Europe over the last 40 years. Analysis of 19 populations from both sides of the North Atlantic using mitochondrial single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), sequence data from two singlecopy nuclear regions and allelic variation at eight microsatellite loci revealed unique genetic variation for all marker classes in the rear-edge populations in Iberia, but not in the rear-edge populations in North America. Palaeodistribution modelling and statistical testing of alternative phylogeographic scenarios indicate that the unique genetic diversity in Iberian populations is a result not only of persistence in the region during the last glacial maximum, but also because this refugium did not contribute substantially to the recolonization of Europe after the retreat of the ice. Consequently, loss of these rear-edge populations as a result of ongoing climate change will have a major effect on the overall genetic diversity of the species, particularly in Europe, and this could compromise the adaptive potential of the species as a whole in the face of future global warming.

Temperature, predator-prey interaction strength and population stability

Warming could strongly stabilize or destabilize populations and food webs by changing the interaction strengths between predators and their prey. Predicting the consequences of warming requires understanding how temperature affects ingestion (energy gain) and metabolism (energy loss). Here, we studied the temperature dependence of metabolism and ingestion in laboratory experiments with terrestrial arthropods (beetles and spiders). From this data, we calculated ingestion efficiencies (ingestion/metabolism) and per capita interaction strengths in the short and long term. Additionally, we investigated if and how body mass changes these temperature dependencies. For both predator groups, warming increased metabolic rates substantially, whereas temperature effects on ingestion rates were weak. Accordingly, the ingestion efficiency (the ratio of ingestion to metabolism) decreased in all treatments. This result has two possible consequences: on the one hand, it suggests that warming of natural ecosystems could increase intrinsic population stability, meaning less fluctuations in population density; on the other hand, decreasing ingestion efficiencies may also lead to higher extinction risks because of starvation. Additionally, predicted long-term per capita interaction strengths decreased with warming, which suggests an increase in perturbation stability of populations, i.e., a higher probability of returning to the same equilibrium density after a small perturbation. Together, these results suggest that warming has complex and potentially profound effects on predator-prey interactions and food-web stability.

RFID based Efficient Lighting Control

The Kyoto Protocol and the European Energy Performance of Buildings Directive put an onus on governments
and organisations to lower carbon footprint in order to contribute towards reducing global warming. A key
parameter to be considered in buildings towards energy and cost savings is its indoor lighting that has a major
impact on overall energy usage and Carbon Dioxide emissions. Lighting control in buildings using Passive
Infrared sensors is a reliable and well established approach; however, the use of only Passive Infrared does not
offer much savings towards reducing carbon, energy, and cost. Accurate occupancy monitoring information can
greatly affect a building’s lighting control strategy towards a greener usage. This paper presents an approach for
data fusion of Passive Infrared sensors and passive Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) based occupancy
monitoring. The idea is to have efficient, need-based, and reliable control of lighting towards a green indoor
environment, all while considering visual comfort of occupants. The proposed approach provides an estimated
13% electrical energy savings in one open-plan office of a University building in one working day. Practical
implementation of RFID gateways provide real-world occupancy profiling data to be fused with Passive
Infrared sensing towards analysis and improvement of building lighting usage and control.

Refining Risk Estimates Using Models (Chapter 4)

In 2004 nineteen scientists from fourteen institutions in seven countries
collaborated in the landmark study described in chapter 2 (Thomas et al., 2004a). This chapter provides an overview of results of studies published subsequently and assesses how much, and why, new results differ from those of Thomas et al.
Some species distribution modeling (SDM) studies are directly comparable to the Thomas et al. estimates. Others using somewhat different methods nonetheless illuminate whether the original estimates were of the right order of magnitude. Climate similarity models (Williams et al., 2007; Williams and Jackson, 2007), biome, and vegetation dynamic models (Perry and Enright, 2006) have also been
applied in the context of climate change, providing interesting opportunities
for comparison and cross-validation with results from SDMs.
This chapter concludes with an assessment of whether the range of extinction risk estimates presented in 2004 can be narrowed, and whether the mean estimate should be revised upward or downward. To set the stage for these analyses, the chapter begins with brief reviews of advances in climate modeling and species modeling since 2004.

Climate-related changes in peatland carbon accumulation during the last millennium

Peatlands are a major terrestrial carbon store and a persistent natural carbon sink during the Holocene, but there is considerable uncertainty over the fate of peatland carbon in a changing climate. It is generally assumed that higher temperatures will increase peat decay, causing a positive feedback to climate warming and contributing to the global positive carbon cycle feedback. Here we use a new extensive database of peat profiles across northern high latitudes to examine spatial and temporal patterns of carbon accumulation over the past millennium. Opposite to expectations, our results indicate a small negative carbon cycle feedback from past changes in the long-term accumulation rates of northern peatlands. Total carbon accumulated over the last 1000 yr is linearly related to contemporary growing season length and photosynthetically active radiation, suggesting that variability in net primary productivity is more important than decomposition in determining long-term carbon accumulation. Furthermore, northern peatland carbon sequestration rate declined over the climate transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the Little Ice Age (LIA), probably because of lower LIA temperatures combined with increased cloudiness suppressing net primary productivity. Other factors including changing moisture status, peatland distribution, fire, nitrogen deposition, permafrost thaw and methane emissions will also influence future peatland carbon cycle feedbacks, but our data suggest that the carbon sequestration rate could increase over many areas of northern peatlands in a warmer future.

Extensive local-scale gene flow and long-term population stability in the intertidal mollusc Katharina tunicata (Mollusca: Polyplacophora)

The dispersal capabilities of intertidal organisms may represent a key factor to their survival in the face of global warming, as species that cannot adapt to the various effects of climate change will have to migrate to track suitable habitat. Although species with pelagic larval phases might be expected to have a greater capacity for dispersal than those with benthic larvae, interspecies comparisons have shown that this is not always the case. Consequently, population genetic approaches are being increasingly used to gain insights into dispersal through studying patterns of gene flow. In the present study, we used nuclear single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequencing to elucidate fine-scale patterns of genetic variation between populations of the Black Katy Chiton, Katharina tunicata, separated by 15-150 km in south-west Vancouver Island. Both the nuclear and mitochondrial data sets revealed no genetic differentiation between the populations studied, and an isolation-with-migration analysis indicated extensive local-scale gene flow, suggesting an absence of barriers to dispersal. Population demographic analysis also revealed long-term population stability through previous periods of climate change associated with the Pleistocene glaciations. Together, the findings of the present study suggest that this high potential for dispersal may allow K. tunicata to respond to current global warming by tracking suitable habitat, consistent with its long-term demographic stability through previous changes in the Earth's climate. (C) 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 106, 589597.

Pleistocene and Holocene glacier fluctuations upon the Kamchatka Peninsula

This review summarises landform records and published age-estimates (largely based upon tephrochronology) to provide an overview of glacier fluctuations upon the Kamchatka Peninsula during the Holocene and, to a lesser degree, earlier phases of glaciation. The evidence suggests that following deglaciation from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the peninsula experienced numerous phases of small-scale glacial advance. During the Late Glacial, moraine sequences appear to reflect the former presence of extensive glaciers in some parts of the peninsula, though little chronological control is available for deposits of this period. During the Holocene, the earliest and most extensive phase of advance likely occurred sometime prior to c. 6.8 ka, when glaciers extended up to 8 km beyond their current margins. However, these deposits lack maximum age constrains, and pre-Holocene ages cannot be discounted. Between c. 6.8 ka and the onset of ‘Neoglaciation’ c. 4.5 ka, there is little evidence of glacial advance upon the peninsula, and this period likely coincides with the Holocene climatic optimum (or ‘hypsithermal’). Since c. 4.5 ka, numerous moraines have been deposited, likely reflecting a series of progressively less extensive phases of ice advance during the Late Holocene. The final stage of notable ice advance occurred during the Little Ice Age (LIA), between c. 1350 and 1850 C.E., when reduced summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere likely coincided with solar activity minima and several strong tropical volcanic eruptions to induce widespread cooling. Following the LIA, glaciers upon the peninsula have generally shown a pattern of retreat, with accelerated mass loss in recent decades. However, a number of prominent climatically and non-climatically controlled glacial advances have also occurred during this period. In general, there is evidence to suggest that millennial scale patterns in the extent and timing of glaciation upon the peninsula (encompassing much of the last glacial period) are governed by the extent of ice sheets in North America. Millennial-to-centennial scale fluctuations of Kamchatkan glaciers (encompassing much of the Holocene) are governed by the location and relative intensity of the Aleutian Low and Siberian High pressure systems. Decadal scale variations in glacier extent and mass balance (particularly since the LIA) are governed by inter-decadal climatic variability over the North Pacific (as reflected by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation), alongside a broader trend of hemispheric warming.

Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future

Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400–500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records.

The sympathetic release test: a test used to assess thermoregulation and autonomic control of blood flow

When a subject is heated, the stimulation of temperature-sensitive nerve endings in the skin, and the raising of the central body temperature, results in the reflex release of sympathetic vasoconstrictor tone in the skin of the extremities, causing a measurable temperature increase at the site of release. In the sympathetic release test, the subject is gently heated by placing the feet and calves in a commercially available foot warming pouch or immersing the feet and calves in warm water and wrapping the subject in blankets. Skin blood flow is estimated from measurements of skin temperature in the fingers. Normally skin temperature of the fingers is 65-75 degrees F in cool conditions (environmental temperature: 59-68 degrees F) and rises to 85-95 degrees F during body heating. Deviations in this pattern may mean that there is abnormal sympathetic vasoconstrictor control of skin blood flow. Abnormal skin blood flow can substantially impair an individual's ability to thermoregulate and has important clinical implications. During whole body heating, the skin temperature from three different skin sites is monitored and oral temperature is monitored as an index of core temperature. Students determine the fingertip temperature at which the reflex release of sympathetic activity occurs and its maximal attainment, which reflects the vasodilating capacity of this cutaneous vascular bed. Students should interpret typical sample data for certain clinical conditions (Raynaud's disease, peripheral vascular disease, and postsympathectomy) and explain why there may be altered skin blood flow in these disorders.

Condition Assessment and Preservation of Open-Air Rock Art Panels During Climate Change

Thousands of Neolithic and Bronze Age open-air rock art panels exist across the countryside in northern England. However, desecration, pollution, and other factors are threatening the survival of these iconic stone monuments. Evidence suggest that rates of panel deterioration may be increasing, although it is not clear whether this is due to local factors or wider environmental influences accelerated by environmental change. To examine this question, 18 rock art panels with varied art motifs were studied at two major panel locations at Lordenshaw and Weetwood Moor in Northumberland. A condition assessment
tool was used to first quantify the level of deterioration of each panel (called “staging”). Stage estimates then were compared statistically with 27 geochemical and physical descriptors of local environments, such as soil moisture, salinity, pH, lichen coverage, soil anions and cation levels, and panel orientation, slope, and standing height. In parallel, climate modelling was performed using UKCP09 to assess how projected climatic conditions (to 2099) might affect the environmental descriptors most correlated with elevated stone deterioration. Only two descriptors significantly correlated (P < 0.05) with increased stage: the standing height of the panel and the exchangeable cation content of the local soils, although moisture conditions also were potentially influential at some panels. Climate modelling predicts warming temperatures, more seasonally variable precipitation, and increased wind speeds, which hint stone deterioration could accelerate in the future due to increased physiochemical weathering. We recommend key panels be targeted for immediate management intervention, focusing on reducing wind exposures, improving site drainage, and potentially immobilizing soil salts.

Idiosyncratic species effects confound size-based predictions of responses to climate change

Understanding and predicting the consequences of warming for complex ecosystems and indeed individual species remains a major ecological challenge. Here, we investigated the effect of increased seawater temperatures on the metabolic and consumption rates of five distinct marine species. The experimental species reflected different trophic positions within a typical benthic East Atlantic food web, and included a herbivorous gastropod, a scavenging decapod, a predatory echinoderm, a decapod and a benthic-feeding fish. We examined the metabolism-body mass and consumption-body mass scaling for each species, and assessed changes in their consumption efficiencies. Our results indicate that body mass and temperature effects on metabolism were inconsistent across species and that some species were unable to meet metabolic demand at higher temperatures, thus highlighting the vulnerability of individual species to warming. While body size explains a large proportion of the variation in species' physiological responses to warming, it is clear that idiosyncratic species responses, irrespective of body size, complicate predictions of population and ecosystem level response to future scenarios of climate change. © 2012 The Royal Society.

Geochemical records of palaeoenvironmental controls on peat forming processes in the Mfabeni peatland, Kwazulu Natal, South Africa since the Late Pleistocene

The Mfabeni peatland is the only known sub-tropical coastal fen that transcends the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). This ca. 10m thick peat sequence provides a continuous sedimentation record spanning from the late Pleistocene to present (basal age c. 47kcalyr BP). We investigated the paleaeoenvironmental controls on peat formation and organic matter source input at the Mfabeni fen by: 1) exploring geochemical records (mass accumulation rate, total organic carbon, carbon accumulation rate, δC, δN and C/N ratio) to delineate primary production, organic matter source input, preservation and diagenetic processes, and 2) employ these geochemical signatures to reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental conditions and prevailing climate that drove carbon accumulation in the peatland. We established that the Mfabeni peat sediments have undergone minimal diagenetic alteration. The peat sequence was divided into 5 linear sedimentation rate (LSR) stages indicating distinct changes in climate and hydrological conditions: LSR stage 1 (c. 47 to c. 32.2kcalyr BP): predominantly cool and wet climate with C4 plant assemblages, interrupted by two short warming events. LSR stage 2 (c. 32.2 to c. 27.6kcalyr BP): dry and windy climate followed by a brief warm and wet period with increased C4 sedge swamp vegetation. LSR stage 3 (c. 27.6 to c. 20.3kcalyr BP): initial cool and wet period with prevailing C4 sedge plant assemblage until c. 23kcalyr BP; then an abrupt change to dry and cool glacial conditions and steady increases in C3 grasses. LSR stage 4 (c. 20.3 to c. 10.4kcalyr BP): continuation of cool and dry conditions and strong C3 grassland signature until c. 15kcalyr BP, after which precipitation increases. LSR stage 5 (c. 10.4kcalyr BP to present): characterised by extreme fluctuations between pervasive wet and warm to cool interglacial conditions with intermittent abrupt millennial-scale cooling/drying events and oscillations between C3 and C4 plant assemblages. In this study we reconstructed a high-resolution record of local hydrology, bulk plant assemblage and inferred climate since the Late Pleistocene, which suggest an anti-phase link between Southern African and the Northern Hemisphere, most notably during Heinrich (5 to 2) and Younger Dryas events. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Climate variability drives anchovies and sardines into the North and Baltic Seas

European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus) are southern, warm water species that prefer temperatures warmer than those found in boreal waters. After about 40 years of absence, they were again observed in the 1990s in increasing quantities in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Whereas global warming probably played a role in these northward migrations, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the contraction of the subpolar gyre were important influences. Sardine re-invaded the North Sea around 1990, probably mainly as a response to warmer temperatures associated with the strengthening of the NAO in the late 1980s. However, increasing numbers of anchovy eggs, larvae, juveniles and adults have been recorded only since the mid-1990s, when, particularly, summer temperatures started to increase. This is probably a result of the complex dynamics of ocean–atmosphere coupling involving changes in North Atlantic current structures, such as the contraction of the subpolar gyre, and dynamics of AMO. Apparently, climate variability drives anchovies and sardines into the North and Baltic Seas. Here, we elucidate the climatic background of the return of anchovies and sardines to the northern European shelf seas and the changes in the North Sea fish community in the mid-1990s in response to climate variability.