A probabilistic modelling scheme for analysis of long-term failure of cemented femoral joint replacements

Reliable prediction of long-term medical device performance using computer simulation requires consideration of variability in surgical procedure, as well as patient-specific factors. However, even deterministic simulation of long-term failure processes for such devices is time and resource consuming so that including variability can lead to excessive time to achieve useful predictions. This study investigates the use of an accelerated probabilistic framework for predicting the likely performance envelope of a device and applies it to femoral prosthesis loosening in cemented hip arthroplasty.
A creep and fatigue damage failure model for bone cement, in conjunction with an interfacial fatigue model for the implant–cement interface, was used to simulate loosening of a prosthesis within a cement mantle. A deterministic set of trial simulations was used to account for variability of a set of surgical and patient factors, and a response surface method was used to perform and accelerate a Monte Carlo simulation to achieve an estimate of the likely range of prosthesis loosening. The proposed framework was used to conceptually investigate the influence of prosthesis selection and surgical placement on prosthesis migration.
Results demonstrate that the response surface method is capable of dramatically reducing the time to achieve convergence in mean and variance of predicted response variables. A critical requirement for realistic predictions is the size and quality of the initial training dataset used to generate the response surface and further work is required to determine the recommendations for a minimum number of initial trials. Results of this conceptual application predicted that loosening was sensitive to the implant size and femoral width. Furthermore, different rankings of implant performance were predicted when only individual simulations (e.g. an average condition) were used to rank implants, compared with when stochastic simulations were used. In conclusion, the proposed framework provides a viable approach to predicting realistic ranges of loosening behaviour for orthopaedic implants in reduced timeframes compared with conventional Monte Carlo simulations.

Failure of thick-skinned stiffener runout sections loaded in uniaxial compression

Recent efforts towards the development of the next generation of large civil and military transport aircraft within the European community have provided new impetus for investigating the potential use of composite material in the primary structure. One concern in this development is the vulnerability of co-cured stiffened structures to through-thickness stresses at the skin-stiffener interfaces particularly in stiffener runout regions. These regions are an inevitable consequence of the requirement to terminate stiffeners at cutouts, rib intersections or other structural features which interrupt the stiffener load path. In this respect, thickerskinned components are more vulnerable than thin-skinned ones. This work presents an experimental and numerical study of the failure of thick-sectioned stiffener runout specimens loaded in uniaxial compression. The experiments revealed that failure was initiated at the edge of the runout and propagated across the skin-stiffener interface. High frictional forces at the edge of the runout were also deduced from a fractographic analysis and it is postulated that these forces may enhance the fracture toughness of the specimens. Finite element analysis using an efficient thick-shell element and the Virtual Crack Closure Technique was able to qualitatively predict the crack growth characteristics for each specimen

Initial failure of mechanically fastened joints with offset loading

In this preliminary study the initial failure of a bolted composite joint was investigated. The results of an experimental program using two simple beams bolted together with offset loading are presented. These test specimens were used to simulate a typical skin-spar attachment in a composite wing undergoing hydraulic shock. Initial failure was found to be due to a prying force induced at the outer sections of the joint leading to transverse shear failure.

The failure of generalized gradient approximations (GGAs) and meta-GGAs for the two-center three-electron bonds in He-2(+), (H2O)(2)(+), and (NH3)(2)(+)

The radical cations He-2(+) (H2O)(2)(+), and (NH3)(2)(+) with two-center three-electron A-A bonds are investigated at the configuration interaction (CI), accurate Kohn-Sham (KS), generalized gradient approximation (GGA), and meta-GGA levels. Assessment of seven different GGA and six meta-GGA methods shows that the A(2)(+) systems remain a difficult case for density functional theory (DFT). All methods tested consistently overestimate the stability of A(2)(+): the corresponding D-e errors decrease for more diffuse valence densities in the series He-2(+) > (H2O)(2)(+) > (NH3)(2)(+). Upon comparison to the energy terms of the accurate Kohn-Sham solutions, the approximate exchange functionals are found to be responsible for the errors of GGA-type methods, which characteristically overestimate the exchange in A(2)(+). These so-called exchange functionals implicitly use localized holes. Such localized holes do occur if there is left-right correlation, i.e., the exchange functionals then also describe nondynamical correlation. However, in the hemibonded A(2)(+) systems the typical molecular (left-right, nondynamical) correlation of the two-electron pair bond is absent. The nondynamical correlation built into the exchange functionals is then spurious and yields too low energies.

Failure of a numerical quality assessment scale to identify potential risk of bias in a systematic review: a comparison study

BACKGROUND: Assessing methodological quality of primary studies is an essential component of systematic reviews. Following a systematic review which used a domain based system [United States Preventative Services Task Force (USPSTF)] to assess methodological quality, a commonly used numerical rating scale (Downs and Black) was also used to evaluate the included studies and comparisons were made between quality ratings assigned using the two different methods. Both tools were used to assess the 20 randomized and quasi-randomized controlled trials examining an exercise intervention for chronic musculoskeletal pain which were included in the review. Inter-rater reliability and levels of agreement were determined using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). Influence of quality on pooled effect size was examined by calculating the between group standardized mean difference (SMD).

RESULTS: Inter-rater reliability indicated at least substantial levels of agreement for the USPSTF system (ICC 0.85; 95% CI 0.66, 0.94) and Downs and Black scale (ICC 0.94; 95% CI 0.84, 0.97). Overall level of agreement between tools (ICC 0.80; 95% CI 0.57, 0.92) was also good. However, the USPSTF system identified a number of studies (n = 3/20) as "poor" due to potential risks of bias. Analysis revealed substantially greater pooled effect sizes in these studies (SMD -2.51; 95% CI -4.21, -0.82) compared to those rated as "fair" (SMD -0.45; 95% CI -0.65, -0.25) or "good" (SMD -0.38; 95% CI -0.69, -0.08).

CONCLUSIONS: In this example, use of a numerical rating scale failed to identify studies at increased risk of bias, and could have potentially led to imprecise estimates of treatment effect. Although based on a small number of included studies within an existing systematic review, we found the domain based system provided a more structured framework by which qualitative decisions concerning overall quality could be made, and was useful for detecting potential sources of bias in the available evidence.

Avoiding Negligence and Profusion: The failure of the Joint-Stock form in the Anglo-Indian Tea Trade, 1840-1870

In the 19th century, firms operating in the Anglo-Indian tea trade were organised using a variety ownership forms including the partnership, joint-stock and a combination of the two known as the Managing agency. Faced with both an increasing need for fixed capital and high agency costs caused by the distance between owners and managers, the firms adapted and increasingly adopted the hybrid managing agency model to overcome these problems. Using new data from Calcutta and Bengal Commercial Registers and detailed case studies of the Assam Company and Gillanders, Arbuthnot and Co, this paper demonstrates that British entrepreneurs did not see the choice of ownership as a dichotomy or firm boundaries as fixed, but instead innovatively drew on the strengths of different forms of ownership to compete and grow successfully.