Hui and Walter's latent-class model extended to estimate diagnostic test properties from surveillance data: a latent model for latent data

Diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity are probabilistic estimates with far reaching implications for disease control, management and genetic studies. In the absence of 'gold standard' tests, traditional Bayesian latent class models may be used to assess diagnostic test accuracies through the comparison of two or more tests performed on the same groups of individuals. The aim of this study was to extend such models to estimate diagnostic test parameters and true cohort-specific prevalence, using disease surveillance data. The traditional Hui-Walter latent class methodology was extended to allow for features seen in such data, including (i) unrecorded data (i.e. data for a second test available only on a subset of the sampled population) and (ii) cohort-specific sensitivities and specificities. The model was applied with and without the modelling of conditional dependence between tests. The utility of the extended model was demonstrated through application to bovine tuberculosis surveillance data from Northern and the Republic of Ireland. Simulation coupled with re-sampling techniques, demonstrated that the extended model has good predictive power to estimate the diagnostic parameters and true herd-level prevalence from surveillance data. Our methodology can aid in the interpretation of disease surveillance data, and the results can potentially refine disease control strategies.

ALEA: Fine-Grain Energy Profiling with Basic Block Sampling

Energy efficiency is an essential requirement for all contemporary computing systems. We thus need tools to measure the energy consumption of computing systems and to understand how workloads affect it. Significant recent research effort has targeted direct power measurements on production computing systems using on-board sensors or external instruments. These direct methods have in turn guided studies of software techniques to reduce energy consumption via workload allocation and scaling. Unfortunately, direct energy measurements are hampered by the low power sampling frequency of power sensors. The coarse granularity of power sensing limits our understanding of how power is allocated in systems and our ability to optimize energy efficiency via workload allocation.
We present ALEA, a tool to measure power and energy consumption at the granularity of basic blocks, using a probabilistic approach. ALEA provides fine-grained energy profiling via sta- tistical sampling, which overcomes the limitations of power sens- ing instruments. Compared to state-of-the-art energy measurement tools, ALEA provides finer granularity without sacrificing accuracy. ALEA achieves low overhead energy measurements with mean error rates between 1.4% and 3.5% in 14 sequential and paral- lel benchmarks tested on both Intel and ARM platforms. The sampling method caps execution time overhead at approximately 1%. ALEA is thus suitable for online energy monitoring and optimization. Finally, ALEA is a user-space tool with a portable, machine-independent sampling method. We demonstrate two use cases of ALEA, where we reduce the energy consumption of a k-means computational kernel by 37% and an ocean modelling code by 33%, compared to high-performance execution baselines, by varying the power optimization strategy between basic blocks.

Using Computational Significance and Resilience in System Software Stacks.:Keynote Talk

This talk explores how the runtime system and operating system can leverage metrics that express the significance and resilience of application components in order to reduce the energy footprint of parallel applications. We will explore in particular how software can tolerate and indeed exploit higher error rates in future processors and memory technologies that may operate outside their safe margins.

On the Exploitation of the Inherent Error Resilience of Wireless Systems under Unreliable Silicon

In this paper, we investigate the impact of circuit misbehavior due to parametric variations and voltage scaling on the performance of wireless communication systems. Our study reveals the inherent error resilience of such systems and argues that sufficiently reliable operation can be maintained even in the presence of unreliable circuits and manufacturing defects. We further show how selective application of more robust circuit design techniques is sufficient to deal with high defect rates at low overhead and improve energy efficiency with negligible system performance degradation.

Prevalence of refractive error in Europe: the European Eye Epidemiology (E3) Consortium

To estimate the prevalence of refractive error in adults across Europe. Refractive data (mean spherical equivalent) collected between 1990 and 2013 from fifteen population-based cohort and cross-sectional studies of the European Eye Epidemiology (E³) Consortium were combined in a random effects meta-analysis stratified by 5-year age intervals and gender. Participants were excluded if they were identified as having had cataract surgery, retinal detachment, refractive surgery or other factors that might influence refraction. Estimates of refractive error prevalence were obtained including the following classifications: myopia ≤−0.75 diopters (D), high myopia ≤−6D, hyperopia ≥1D and astigmatism ≥1D. Meta-analysis of refractive error was performed for 61,946 individuals from fifteen studies with median age ranging from 44 to 81 and minimal ethnic variation (98 % European ancestry). The age-standardised prevalences (using the 2010 European Standard Population, limited to those ≥25 and <90 years old) were: myopia 30.6 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 30.4–30.9], high myopia 2.7 % (95 % CI 2.69–2.73), hyperopia 25.2 % (95 % CI 25.0–25.4) and astigmatism 23.9 % (95 % CI 23.7–24.1). Age-specific estimates revealed a high prevalence of myopia in younger participants [47.2 % (CI 41.8–52.5) in 25–29 years-olds]. Refractive error affects just over a half of European adults. The greatest burden of refractive error is due to myopia, with high prevalence rates in young adults. Using the 2010 European population estimates, we estimate there are 227.2 million people with myopia across Europe.

Age, gender, biometry, refractive error, and the anterior chamber angle among Alaskan Eskimos.

BACKGROUND:

The prevalence of angle-closure glaucoma (ACG) is greater for Eskimos/Inuit than it is for any other ethnic group in the world. Although it has been suggested that this prevalence may be due to a population tendency toward shallower anterior chamber angles, available evidence for other populations such as Chinese with high rates of ACG has not consistently demonstrated such a tendency.

METHODS:

A reticule, slit-lamp, and standard Goldmann one-mirror goniolens were used to make measurements in the anterior chamber (AC) angle according to a previously reported protocol for biometric gonioscopy (BG) (Ophthalmology 1999;106:2161-7). Measurements were made in all four quadrants of one eye among 133 phakic Alaskan Eskimos aged 40 years and older. Automatic refraction, dilated examination of the anterior segment and optic nerve, and A-scan measurements of AC depth, lens thickness, and axial length were also carried out for all subjects.

RESULTS:

Both central and peripheral AC measurements for the Eskimo subjects were significantly lower than those previously reported by us for Chinese, blacks, and whites under the identical protocol. Eskimos also seemed to have somewhat more hyperopia. There were no differences in biometric measurements between men and women in this Eskimo population. Angle measurements by BG seemed to decline more rapidly over life among Eskimos and Chinese than blacks or whites. Although there was a significant apparent decrease in AC depth, increase in lens thickness, and increase in hyperopia with age among Eskimos, all of these trends seemed to reverse in the seventh decade and beyond.

CONCLUSIONS:

Eskimos do seem to have shallower ACs than do other racial groups. Measurements of the AC angle seem to decline more rapidly over life among Eskimos than among blacks or whites, a phenomenon also observed by us among Chinese, another group with high ACG prevalence. This apparent more rapid decline may be due to a cohort effect with higher prevalence of myopia and resulting wider angles among younger Eskimos and Chinese.

School-based approaches to the correction of refractive error in children.

The World Health Organization estimates that 13 million children aged 5-15 years worldwide are visually impaired from uncorrected refractive error. School vision screening programs can identify and treat or refer children with refractive error. We concentrate on the findings of various screening studies and attempt to identify key factors in the success and sustainability of such programs in the developing world. We reviewed original and review articles describing children's vision and refractive error screening programs published in English and listed in PubMed, Medline OVID, Google Scholar, and Oxford University Electronic Resources databases. Data were abstracted on study objective, design, setting, participants, and outcomes, including accuracy of screening, quality of refractive services, barriers to uptake, impact on quality of life, and cost-effectiveness of programs. Inadequately corrected refractive error is an important global cause of visual impairment in childhood. School-based vision screening carried out by teachers and other ancillary personnel may be an effective means of detecting affected children and improving their visual function with spectacles. The need for services and potential impact of school-based programs varies widely between areas, depending on prevalence of refractive error and competing conditions and rates of school attendance. Barriers to acceptance of services include the cost and quality of available refractive care and mistaken beliefs that glasses will harm children's eyes. Further research is needed in areas such as the cost-effectiveness of different screening approaches and impact of education to promote acceptance of spectacle-wear. School vision programs should be integrated into comprehensive efforts to promote healthy children and their families.