Hui and Walter's latent-class model extended to estimate diagnostic test properties from surveillance data: a latent model for latent data

Diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity are probabilistic estimates with far reaching implications for disease control, management and genetic studies. In the absence of 'gold standard' tests, traditional Bayesian latent class models may be used to assess diagnostic test accuracies through the comparison of two or more tests performed on the same groups of individuals. The aim of this study was to extend such models to estimate diagnostic test parameters and true cohort-specific prevalence, using disease surveillance data. The traditional Hui-Walter latent class methodology was extended to allow for features seen in such data, including (i) unrecorded data (i.e. data for a second test available only on a subset of the sampled population) and (ii) cohort-specific sensitivities and specificities. The model was applied with and without the modelling of conditional dependence between tests. The utility of the extended model was demonstrated through application to bovine tuberculosis surveillance data from Northern and the Republic of Ireland. Simulation coupled with re-sampling techniques, demonstrated that the extended model has good predictive power to estimate the diagnostic parameters and true herd-level prevalence from surveillance data. Our methodology can aid in the interpretation of disease surveillance data, and the results can potentially refine disease control strategies.

Max Weber and the First World War: Protestant and Catholic living standards in Germany, 1915-1919

We assess informal institutions of Protestants and Catholics by investigating their economic
resilience in a natural experiment. The First World War constitutes an exogenous shock to living standards since the duration and intensity of the war exceeded all expectations. We assess the ability of Protestant and Catholic communities to cope with increasing food prices and wartime black markets. Literature based on Weber (1904, 1905) suggests that Protestants must be more resilient than their Catholic peers. Using individual height data on some 2,800 Germans to assess levels of malnutrition during the war, we find that living standards for both Protestants and Catholics declined; however, the decrease of Catholics’ height was disproportionately large. Our empirical analysis finds a large statistically significant difference between Protestants and Catholics for the 1914-19 birth cohort, and we argue that this height gap cannot be attributed to socioeconomic background and fertility alone.

Quiescent and flaring X-ray emission from the nearby M/T dwarf binary SCR 1845-6357

Aims: X-ray emission is an important diagnostics to study magnetic activity in very low mass stars that are presumably fully convective and have an effectively neutral photosphere. Methods: We investigate an XMM-Newton observation of SCR 1845-6357, a nearby, ultracool M 8.5 / T 5.5 dwarf binary. The binary is unresolved in the XMM detectors, but the X-ray emission is very likely from the M 8.5 dwarf. We compare its flaring emission to those of similar very low mass stars and additionally present an XMM observation of the M 8 dwarf VB 10. Results: We detect quasi-quiescent X-ray emission from SCR 1845-6357 at soft X-ray energies in the 0.2-2.0 keV band, as well as a strong flare with a count rate increase of a factor of 30 and a duration of only 10 min. The quasi-quiescent X-ray luminosity of log LX = 26.2 erg/s and the corresponding activity level of log LX/Lbol = -3.8 point to a fairly active star. Coronal temperatures of up to 5 MK and frequent minor variability support this picture. During the flare, which is accompanied by a significant brightening in the near-UV, plasma temperatures of 25-30 MK are observed and an X-ray luminosity of LX = 8 × 1027 erg/s is reached. Conclusions: The source SCR 1845-6357 is a nearby, very low mass star that emits X-rays at detectable levels in quasi-quiescence, implying the existence of a corona. The high activity level, coronal temperatures and the observed large flare point to a rather active star, despite its estimated age of a few Gyr.