Parents' experiences of applied behaviour analysis (ABA)-based interventions for children diagnosed with autistic spectrum disorder

Applied behaviour analysis (ABA)-based programmes are endorsed as the gold standard for treatment of children with autistic spectrum disorder (ASD) in most of North America. This is not the case in most of Europe, where instead a non-specified 'eclectic' approach is adopted. We explored the social validity of ABA-based interventions with 15 European families who had experience with home-based, mainly self-managed, ABA-based programmes for their own child/ren with ASD. The results of the study highlighted the overwhelmingly positive impact that ABA-based interventions had on their children in areas such as social skills, challenging behaviour, communication, gross and fine motor skills, concentration, interaction, independence, overall quality of life and, most importantly, a feeling of hope for the future. Implications for European policy on ASD are discussed. © 2013 NASEN.

Stated choices and benefit estimates in the context of traffic calming schemes:Utility maximization, regret minimization, or both?

This paper proposes a discrete mixture model which assigns individuals, up to a probability, to either a class of random utility (RU) maximizers or a class of random regret (RR) minimizers, on the basis of their sequence of observed choices. Our proposed model advances the state of the art of RU-RR mixture models by (i) adding and simultaneously estimating a membership model which predicts the probability of belonging to a RU or RR class; (ii) adding a layer of random taste heterogeneity within each behavioural class; and (iii) deriving a welfare measure associated with the RU-RR mixture model and consistent with referendum-voting, which is the adequate mechanism of provision for such local public goods. The context of our empirical application is a stated choice experiment concerning traffic calming schemes. We find that the random parameter RU-RR mixture model not only outperforms its fixed coefficient counterpart in terms of fit-as expected-but also in terms of plausibility of membership determinants of behavioural class. In line with psychological theories of regret, we find that, compared to respondents who are familiar with the choice context (i.e. the traffic calming scheme), unfamiliar respondents are more likely to be regret minimizers than utility maximizers. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age

The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological 14C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

Superluminous supernovae from PESSTO

We present optical spectra and light curves for three hydrogen-poor superluminous supernovae followed by the Public ESO Spectroscopic Survey of Transient Objects (PESSTO). Time series spectroscopy from a fewdays aftermaximum light to 100 d later shows them to be fairly typical of this class, with spectra dominated by Ca II, MgII, FeII, and Si II, which evolve slowly over most of the post-peak photospheric phase. We determine bolometric light curves and apply simple fitting tools, based on the diffusion of energy input by magnetar spin-down, Ni-56 decay, and collision of the ejecta with an opaque circumstellar shell. We investigate how the heterogeneous light curves of our sample (combined with others from the literature) can help to constrain the possible mechanisms behind these events. We have followed these events to beyond 100-200 d after peak, to disentangle host galaxy light from fading supernova flux and to differentiate between the models, which predict diverse behaviour at this phase. Models powered by radioactivity require unrealistic parameters to reproduce the observed light curves, as found by previous studies. Both magnetar heating and circumstellar interaction still appear to be viable candidates. A large diversity is emerging in observed tail-phase luminosities, with magnetar models failing in some cases to predict the rapid drop in flux. This would suggest either that magnetars are not responsible, or that the X-ray flux from the magnetar wind is not fully trapped. The light curve of one object shows a distinct rebrightening at around 100 d after maximum light. We argue that this could result either from multiple shells of circumstellar material, or from a magnetar ionization front breaking out of the ejecta.

Hui and Walter's latent-class model extended to estimate diagnostic test properties from surveillance data: a latent model for latent data

Diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity are probabilistic estimates with far reaching implications for disease control, management and genetic studies. In the absence of 'gold standard' tests, traditional Bayesian latent class models may be used to assess diagnostic test accuracies through the comparison of two or more tests performed on the same groups of individuals. The aim of this study was to extend such models to estimate diagnostic test parameters and true cohort-specific prevalence, using disease surveillance data. The traditional Hui-Walter latent class methodology was extended to allow for features seen in such data, including (i) unrecorded data (i.e. data for a second test available only on a subset of the sampled population) and (ii) cohort-specific sensitivities and specificities. The model was applied with and without the modelling of conditional dependence between tests. The utility of the extended model was demonstrated through application to bovine tuberculosis surveillance data from Northern and the Republic of Ireland. Simulation coupled with re-sampling techniques, demonstrated that the extended model has good predictive power to estimate the diagnostic parameters and true herd-level prevalence from surveillance data. Our methodology can aid in the interpretation of disease surveillance data, and the results can potentially refine disease control strategies.

Simulating reinforced concrete members. Part 1: partial interaction properties

Reinforced concrete members are extremely complex under loading because of localised deformations in the concrete (cracks, sliding planes) and between the reinforcement and concrete (slip). An ideal model for simulating behaviour of reinforced concrete members should incorporate both global behaviour and the localised behaviours that are seen and measured in practice; these localised behaviours directly affect the global behaviour. Most commonly used models do not directly simulate these localised behaviours that can be seen or measured in real members; instead, they overcome these limitations by using empirically or semi-empirically derived strain-based pseudo properties such as the use of effective flexural rigidities for deflection; plastic hinge lengths for strength and ductility; and energy-based approaches for both concrete softening in compression and concrete softening after tensile cracking to allow for tension stiffening. Most reinforced concrete member experimental testing is associated with deriving these pseudo properties for use in design and analysis, and this component of development is thus costly. The aim of the present research is to reduce this cost substantially. In this paper, localised material behaviours and the mechanisms they induce are described. Their incorporation into reinforced concrete member behaviour without the need for empirically derived pseudo properties is described in a companion paper.

The mechanical and rheological characterisation of implantable medical devices formulated from binary mixtures of cellulose derivatives

This study highlights the potential associated with utilising multi-component polymeric gels to formulate materials that possess unique rheological and mechanical properties. The synergistic effect* and interaction between hydroxyethylcellulose (HEC) and sodium carboxymethylcellulose (NaCMC), polymers which are commonly employed as drug delivery platforms for implantable medical devices (1), have been determined using dynamic, continuous shear and texture profile analysis. * The difference between the actual response of a binary mixture and the sum of the two components comprising the mixture Increases in polymer concentration resulted in an increase in G', G? and ?' whereas tan d decreased. Similarly, significant increases were also apparent in continuous shear and texture analysis. All binary mixtures showed positive synergy values which may suggest associative interaction between the two components.

Constraining the age of Lateglacial and early Holocene pollen zones and tephra horizons in southern Sweden with Bayesian probability methods

The sediment sequence from Hasseldala port in southeastern Sweden provides a unique Lateglacial/early Holocene record that contains five different tephra layers. Three of these have been geochemically identified as the Borrobol Tephra, the Hasseldalen Tephra and the 10-ka Askja Tephra. Twenty-eight high-resolution C-14 measurements have been obtained and three different age models based on Bayesian statistics are employed to provide age estimates for the five different tephra layers. The chrono- and pollen stratigraphic framework supports the stratigraphic position of the Borrobol Tephra as found in Sweden at the very end of the Older Dryas pollen zone and provides the first age estimates for the Askja and Hasseldalen tephras. Our results, however, highlight the limitations that arise in attempting to establish a robust, chronologically independent lacustrine sequence that can be correlated in great detail to ice core or marine records. Radiocarbon samples are prone to error and sedimentation rates in lake basins may vary considerably due to a number of factors. Any type of valid and 'realistic' age model, therefore, has to take these limitations into account and needs to include this information in its prior assumptions. As a result, the age ranges for the specific horizons at Hasseldala port are large and calendar year estimates differ according to the assumptions of the age-model. Not only do these results provide a cautionary note for overdependence on one age-model for the derivation of age estimates for specific horizons, but they also demonstrate that precise correlations to other palaeoarchives to detect leads or lags is problematic. Given the uncertainties associated with establishing age-depth models for sedimentary sequences spanning the Lateglacial period, however, this exercise employing Bayesian probability methods represents the best possible approach and provides the most statistically significant age estimates for the pollen zone boundaries and tephra horizons. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparison of elicitation methods for moral and affective beliefs in the theory of planned behaviour

Although the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) has been applied successfully in the area of food choice, it has been criticized for its pure utilitarian approach to the factors determining behaviour. Despite the increase in predictive power of the model with added components such as affective attitude and moral and ethical concerns, in most studies the elicitation process still only addresses people's utilitarian beliefs about the behaviour with little attention paid to other aspects. This study compares the traditional method of elicitation of advantages and disadvantages with two other methods (word association and open-ended) in the elicitations of beliefs, attitudes and moral concerns in relation to the consumption of organic foods. Results show the traditional method to be best for eliciting cognitive beliefs, open-ended emotion task for eliciting emotional beliefs and open-ended beliefs task best for moral concerns. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed.