Discrete Conditional Phase-type models utilising classification trees: Application to modelling health service capacities

Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) models consist of a process component (survival distribution) preceded by a set of related conditional discrete variables. This paper introduces a DC-Ph model where the conditional component is a classification tree. The approach is utilised for modelling health service capacities by better predicting service times, as captured by Coxian Phase-type distributions, interfaced with results from a classification tree algorithm. To illustrate the approach, a case-study within the healthcare delivery domain is given, namely that of maternity services. The classification analysis is shown to give good predictors for complications during childbirth. Based on the classification tree predictions, the duration of childbirth on the labour ward is then modelled as either a two or three-phase Coxian distribution. The resulting DC-Ph model is used to calculate the number of patients and associated bed occupancies, patient turnover, and to model the consequences of changes to risk status.

Rotating massive main-sequence stars II. Simulating a population of LMC early B-type stars as a test of rotational mixing

Context. Rotational mixing in massive stars is a widely applied concept, with far-reaching consequences for stellar evolution, nucleosynthesis, and stellar explosions.

The VLT-FLAMES Tarantula Survey I. Introduction and observational overview

The VLT-FLAMES Tarantula Survey (VFTS) is an ESO Large Programme that has obtained multi-epoch optical spectroscopy of over 800 massive stars in the 30 Doradus region of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). Here we introduce our scientific motivations and give an overview of the survey targets, including optical and near-infrared photometry and comprehensive details of the data reduction. One of the principal objectives was to detect massive binary systems via variations in their radial velocities, thus shaping the multi-epoch observing strategy. Spectral classifications are given for the massive emission-line stars observed by the survey, including the discovery of a new Wolf-Rayet star (VFTS 682, classified as WN5h), 2' to the northeast of R136. To illustrate the diversity of objects encompassed by the survey, we investigate the spectral properties of sixteen targets identified by Gruendl & Chu from Spitzer photometry as candidate young stellar objects or stars with notable mid-infrared excesses. Detailed spectral classification and quantitative analysis of the O- and B-type stars in the VFTS sample, paying particular attention to the effects of rotational mixing and binarity, will be presented in a series of future articles to address fundamental questions in both stellar and cluster evolution.

The factor structure of the revised Illness Perceptions Questionnaire in a population of oesophageal cancer survivors

Objectives
To determine whether the proposed 7-factor structure of the Illness Perception Questionnaire-Revised (Timeline Acute/Chronic, Timeline Cyclical, Consequences, Personal Control, Treatment Control, Illness Coherence and Emotional Representations) is appropriate among a population of oesophageal cancer survivors.
Methods
Everyone registered with the Oesophageal Patients’ Association in the UK (n=2185) was mailed a questionnaire booklet which included the Illness Perception Questionnaire-Revised. Responses from 587 oesophageal cancer survivors (27%) were subjected to a confirmatory factor analysis.
Results
The proposed 7 factor structure provided a reasonable fit of the data. Modification indices suggested that a significantly better fit could be provided if one of the items on the Timeline Acute/Chronic factor loaded on the Treatment Control factor and an error covariance was added between 2 other items on the Timeline Acute/Chronic factor.
Conclusions
The model fit for the 7 factor structure proposed by Moss-Morris et al. (2002) was found to be adequate in our study. However, the structure of the timeline acute/chronic factor needs to be considered, particularly when the IPQ-R is to be used among older people with a potentially life-threatening illness or those receiving palliative care.

Do Low-Priced Stocks Drive Long-Term Contrarian Performance on the London Stock Exchange?

We investigate whether low-priced stocks drive long-term contrarian performance on the U.K. market. We find that contrarian performance at low, middle, and high price levels is positive. On the Fama-French risk adjusted basis, we find both low-priced and middle-priced losers have significantly positive returns. When we adjust returns by market and liquidity risk, only middle-priced losers maintain their positive returns. Our results reveal that low-priced stocks are not fully responsible for contrarian performance. Our empirical evidence is generally consistent with the overreaction hypothesis and behavioral models of value investing.

Approximating the Set of Local Minima in Partial RNA Folding Landscapes

Motivation: We study a stochastic method for approximating the set of local minima in partial RNA folding landscapes associated with a bounded-distance neighbourhood of folding conformations. The conformations are limited to RNA secondary structures without pseudoknots. The method aims at exploring partial energy landscapes pL induced by folding simulations and their underlying neighbourhood relations. It combines an approximation of the number of local optima devised by Garnier and Kallel (2002) with a run-time estimation for identifying sets of local optima established by Reeves and Eremeev (2004).

Results: The method is tested on nine sequences of length between 50 nt and 400 nt, which allows us to compare the results with data generated by RNAsubopt and subsequent barrier tree calculations. On the nine sequences, the method captures on average 92% of local minima with settings designed for a target of 95%. The run-time of the heuristic can be estimated by O(n2D?ln?), where n is the sequence length, ? is the number of local minima in the partial landscape pL under consideration and D is the maximum number of steepest descent steps in attraction basins associated with pL.

Effective collision strengths for optically allowed transitions among degenerate levels of hydrogenic ions with Z = 2 - 30.

The Coulomb–Born approximation is used to calculate electron-impact excitation collision strengths and effective collision strengths for optically allowed transitions among degenerate fine-structure levels of hydrogenic ions with 2⩽Z⩽30 and n⩽5. Collision strengths are calculated over a wide range of energies up to View the MathML source. Effective collision strengths are obtained over a wide temperature range up to View the MathML source by integrating the collision strengths over a Maxwellian distribution of electron velocities.

Anatase thin films on glass from the chemical vapor deposition of titanium(IV) chloride and ethyl acetate

Thin (50-500 nm) films of TiO2 may be deposited on glass substrates by the atmospheric pressure chemical vapor deposition (APCVD) reaction of TiCl4 with ethyl acetate at 400600 C. The TiO2 films are exclusively in the form of anatase, as established by Raman microscopy and glancing angle X-ray diffraction. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy gave a 1:2 Ti:O ratio with Ti 2P(3/2) at 458.6 eV and O 1s is at 530.6 eV. The water droplet contact angle drops from 60degrees to

Fetal Cardiac Effects of Maternal Hyperglycemia During Pregnancy

Maternal diabetes mellitus is associated with increased teratogenesis, which can occur in pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Cardiac defects and with neural tube defects are the most common malformations observed in fetuses of pregestational diabetic mothers. The exact mechanism by which diabetes exerts its teratogenic effects and induces embryonic malformations is unclear. Whereas the sequelae of maternal pregestational diabetes, such as modulating insulin levels, altered fat levels, and increased reactive oxygen species, may play a role in fetal damage during diabetic pregnancy, hyperglycemia is thought to be the primary teratogen, causing particularly adverse effects on cardiovascular development. Fetal cardiac defects are associated with raised maternal glycosylated hemoglobin levels and are up to five times more likely in infants of mothers with pregestational diabetes compared with those without diabetes. The resulting anomalies are varied and include transposition of the great arteries, mitral and pulmonary atresia, double outlet of the right ventricle, tetralogy of Fallot, and fetal cardiomyopathy.

NUCLEAR STAINING IN ALGAL HERBARIUM MATERIAL - A REAPPRAISAL OF THE HOLOTYPE OF CALLITHAMNION-DECOMPOSITUM AGARDH,J. (RHODOPHYTA)

The taxonomic importance of uninucleate vs. multinucleate vegetative cells in the Ceramiaceae is emphasized. It has been possible to make visible nuclei in old material, including type specimens, using aceto-carmine and aceto-iron-haematoxylin stains. The holotypes of Ceramium roseum and Callithamnion fasciculatum (currently known as Callithamnion roseum and Pleonosporium borreri var. fasciculatum) have uninucleate cells and belong to Aglaothamnion. In contrast, the holotype of Callithamnion decompositum, a name that has been applied to collections of at least two uninucleate taxa, has multinucleate cells; its morphological and cytological details agree with those of specimens collected in France and Ireland that were previously thought to represent an undescribed species. Female reproductive morphology (described from a thallus with gametangia in addition to tetrasporangia), in conjunction with habit and vegetative features, indicates that this species belongs to Compsothamnion (Compsothamnieae), as a third species, being distinguished from C. thuyoides and C. gracillimum by its sessile, lateral tetrasporangia. The required new combinations under Aglaothamnion and Compsothamnion are made.