Growing Tall but Unequal: New Findings and New Background Evidence on Anthropometric Welfare in 156 Countries, 1810–1989

This is the first initiative to collate the entire body of anthropometric evidence during the 19th and 20th centuries, on a global scale. By providing a comprehensive dataset on global height developments we are able to emphasize an alternative view of the history of human well-being and a basis for understanding characteristics of well-being in 156 countries, 1810–1989.

The performance of a cathodic protection system in reinforced concrete structure: Monitoring and Service Life Modelling

The use of cathodic protection in reinforced concrete is becoming increasingly common with such systems being installed on a number of structures throughout the United Kingdom and Ireland. However the prescribed design lives (or service life) of each cathodic protection system vary widely. The aim of this project was to assess the effectiveness of a sacrificial anode cathodic protection system and to predict its design life through a series of laboratory based experiments. The experimental plan involved casting a number of slabs which represented a common road bridge structure. The corrosion of the steel within the experimental slabs was then accelerated prior to installation of a cathodic protection system. During the experiment corrosion potential of the steel reinforcement was monitored using half-cell measurement. Additionally the current flow between the cathodic protection system and the steel reinforcement was recorded to assess the degree of protection. A combination of theoretical calculations and experimental results were then collated to determine the design life of this cathodic protection system. It can be concluded that this sacrificial anode based cathodic protection system was effective in halting the corrosion of steel reinforcement in the concrete slabs studied. Both the corrosion current and half-cell potentials indicated a change in passivity for the steel reinforcement once sacrificial anodes were introduced. The corrosion current was observed to be sensitive to the changes to the exposure environment. Based on the experimental variables studied the design life of this sacrificial anode can be taken as 26 to 30 years.

Applying Health Locus of Control and Latent Class Modelling to food and physical activity choices affecting CVD risk

Health Locus of Control (HLC) classifies our beliefs about the connection between our actions and health outcomes (Skinner, 1996) into three categories: “internal control”, corresponding to health being the result of an individual's effort and habits; “control by powerful others”, whereby health depends on others, such as doctors; and “chance control”, according to which health depends on fate and chance. Using Choice Experiments we investigate the relationship between HLC and willingness to change lifestyle, in terms of eating habits, physical activity and associated cardiovascular disease risk, in a 384 person sample representative of the 40–65 aged population of Northern Ireland administered between February and July 2011. Using latent class analysis we identify three discrete classes of people based on their HLC: the first class is sceptical about their capacity to control their health and certain unhealthy habits. Despite being unsatisfied with their situation, they are reluctant to accept behaviour changes. The second is a group of individuals unhappy with their current situation but willing to change through exercise and diet. Finally, a group of healthy optimists is identified, who are satisfied with their current situation but happy to take more physical activity and improve their diet. Our findings show that any policy designed to modify people's health related behaviour should consider the needs of this sceptical class which represents a considerable proportion of the population in the region.

Experimental and discrete element modelling of cohesive iron ore fines

In this study, the behaviour of iron ore fines with varying levels of adhesion was investigated using a confined compression test and a uniaxial test. The uniaxial test was conducted using the semi-automated uniaxial EPT tester in which the cohesive strength of a bulk solid is evaluated from an unconfined compression test following a period of consolidation to a pre-defined vertical stress. The iron ore fines were also tested by measuring both the vertical and circumferential strains on the cylindrical container walls under vertical loading in a separate confined compression tester - the K0 tester, to determine the lateral pressure ratio. Discrete Element Method simulations of both experiments were carried out and the predictions were compared with the experimental observations. A recently developed DEM contact model for cohesive solids, an Elasto-Plastic Adhesive model, was used. This particle contact model uses hysteretic non-linear loading and unloading paths and an adhesion parameter which is a function of the maximum contact overlap. The model parameters for the simulations are phenomenologically based to reproduce the key bulk characteristics exhibited by the solid. The simulation results show a good agreement in capturing the stress history dependent behaviour depicted by the flow function of the cohesive iron ore fines while also providing a reasonably good match for the lateral pressure ratio observed during the confined compression K0 tests. This demonstrates the potential for the DEM model to be used in the simulation of bulk handling applications.

Face recognition using a unified 3D morphable model

We address the problem of 3D-assisted 2D face recognition in scenarios when the input image is subject to degradations or exhibits intra-personal variations not captured by the 3D model. The proposed solution involves a novel approach to learn a subspace spanned by perturbations caused by the missing modes of variation and image degradations, using 3D face data reconstructed from 2D images rather than 3D capture. This is accomplished by modelling the difference in the texture map of the 3D aligned input and reference images. A training set of these texture maps then defines a perturbation space which can be represented using PCA bases. Assuming that the image perturbation subspace is orthogonal to the 3D face model space, then these additive components can be recovered from an unseen input image, resulting in an improved fit of the 3D face model. The linearity of the model leads to efficient fitting. Experiments show that our method achieves very competitive face recognition performance on Multi-PIE and AR databases. We also present baseline face recognition results on a new data set exhibiting combined pose and illumination variations as well as occlusion.

Modelling and Prediction of NOx Emission in a Coal-Fired Power Generation Plant

In this paper NOx emissions modelling for real-time operation and control of a 200 MWe coal-fired power generation plant is studied. Three model types are compared. For the first model the fundamentals governing the NOx formation mechanisms and a system identification technique are used to develop a grey-box model. Then a linear AutoRegressive model with eXogenous inputs (ARX) model and a non-linear ARX model (NARX) are built. Operation plant data is used for modelling and validation. Model cross-validation tests show that the developed grey-box model is able to consistently produce better overall long-term prediction performance than the other two models.

Economic modelling of antenatal screening and ultrasound scanning programmes for identification of fetal abnormalities

Objective Within the framework of a health technology assessment and using an economic model, to determine the most clinically and cost effective policy of scanning and screening for fetal abnormalities in early pregnancy. Design A discrete event simulation model of 50,000 singleton pregnancies. Setting Maternity services in Scotland. Population Women during the first 24 weeks of their pregnancy. Methods The mathematical model was populated with data on uptake of screening, prevalence, detection and false positive rates for eight fetal abnormalities and with costs for ultrasound scanning and serum screening. Inclusion of abnormalities was based on the relative prevalence and clinical importance of conditions and the availability of data. Six strategies for the identification of abnormalities prenatally including combinations of first and second trimester ultrasound scanning and first and second trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities were compared. Main outcome measures The number of abnormalities detected and missed, the number of iatrogenic losses resulting from invasive tests, the total cost of strategies and the cost per abnormality detected were compared between strategies. Results First trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities costs more than second trimester screening but results in fewer iatrogenic losses. Strategies which include a second trimester ultrasound scan result in more abnormalities being detected and have lower costs per anomaly detected. Conclusions The preferred strategy includes both first and second trimester ultrasound scans and a first trimester screening test for chromosomal abnormalities. It has been recommended that this policy is offered to all women in Scotland.