Compositional Data Analysis in Forensic Geoscience

Statistics are regularly used to make some form of comparison between trace evidence or deploy the exclusionary principle (Morgan and Bull, 2007) in forensic investigations. Trace evidence are routinely the results of particle size, chemical or modal analyses and as such constitute compositional data. The issue is that compositional data including percentages, parts per million etc. only carry relative information. This may be problematic where a comparison of percentages and other constraint/closed data is deemed a statistically valid and appropriate way to present trace evidence in a court of law. Notwithstanding an awareness of the existence of the constant sum problem since the seminal works of Pearson (1896) and Chayes (1960) and the introduction of the application of log-ratio techniques (Aitchison, 1986; Pawlowsky-Glahn and Egozcue, 2001; Pawlowsky-Glahn and Buccianti, 2011; Tolosana-Delgado and van den Boogaart, 2013) the problem that a constant sum destroys the potential independence of variances and covariances required for correlation regression analysis and empirical multivariate methods (principal component analysis, cluster analysis, discriminant analysis, canonical correlation) is all too often not acknowledged in the statistical treatment of trace evidence. Yet the need for a robust treatment of forensic trace evidence analyses is obvious. This research examines the issues and potential pitfalls for forensic investigators if the constant sum constraint is ignored in the analysis and presentation of forensic trace evidence. Forensic case studies involving particle size and mineral analyses as trace evidence are used to demonstrate the use of a compositional data approach using a centred log-ratio (clr) transformation and multivariate statistical analyses.

Studying Gender in Conference Talks -- data from the 223rd meeting of the American Astronomical Society

We present a study on the gender balance, in speakers and attendees, at the recent major astronomical conference, the American Astronomical Society meeting 223, in Washington, DC. We conducted an informal survey, yielding over 300 responses by volunteers at the meeting. Each response included gender data about a single talk given at the meeting, recording the gender of the speaker and all question-askers. In total, 225 individual AAS talks were sampled. We analyze basic statistical properties of this sample. We find that the gender ratio of the speakers closely matched the gender ratio of the conference attendees. The audience asked an average of 2.8 questions per talk. Talks given by women had a slightly higher number of questions asked (3.2$\pm$0.2) than talks given by men (2.6$\pm$0.1). The most significant result from this study is that while the gender ratio of speakers very closely mirrors that of conference attendees, women are under-represented in the question-asker category. We interpret this to be an age-effect, as senior scientists may be more likely to ask questions, and are more commonly men. A strong dependence on the gender of session chairs is found, whereby women ask disproportionately fewer questions in sessions chaired by men. While our results point to laudable progress in gender-balanced speaker selection, we believe future surveys of this kind would help ensure that collaboration at such meetings is as inclusive as possible.

Inference in Polytrees with Sets of Probabilities

Inferences in directed acyclic graphs associated with probability intervals and sets of probabilities are NP-hard, even for polytrees. We propose: 1) an improvement on Tessem’s A/R algorithm for inferences on polytrees associated with probability intervals; 2) a new algorithm for approximate inferences based on local search; 3) branch-and-bound algorithms that combine the previous techniques. The first two algorithms produce complementary approximate solutions, while branch-and-bound procedures can generate either exact or approximate solutions. We report improvements on existing techniques for inference with probability sets and intervals, in some cases reducing computational effort by several orders of magnitude.

Evolution and Enabling Capabilities of Spatially Resolved Techniques for the Characterization of Heterogeneously Catalyzed Reactions

The development and optimization of catalysts and catalytic processes requires knowledge of reaction kinetics and mechanisms. In traditional catalyst kinetic characterization, the gas composition is known at the inlet, and the exit flow is measured to determine changes in concentration. As such, the progression of the chemistry within the catalyst is not known. Technological advances in electromagnetic and physical probes have made visualizing the evolution of the chemistry within catalyst samples a reality, as part of a methodology commonly known as spatial resolution. Herein, we discuss and evaluate the development of spatially resolved techniques, including the evolutions and achievements of this growing area of catalytic research. The impact of such techniques is discussed in terms of the invasiveness of physical probes on catalytic systems, as well as how experimentally obtained spatial profiles can be used in conjunction with kinetic modelling. Furthermore, some aims and aspirations for further evolution of spatially resolved techniques are considered.

Disordered sleep and myopia risk among Chinese children

PURPOSE: Disordered sleep and myopia are increasingly prevalent among Chinese children. Similar pathways may be involved in regulation of both sleep cycles and eye growth. We therefore sought to examine the association between disordered sleep and myopia in this group. METHODS: Urban primary school children participating in a clinical trial on myopia and outdoor activity underwent automated cycloplegic refraction with subjective refinement. Parents answered questions about children's sleep duration, sleep disorders (Children's Sleep Habits Questionnaire [CSHQ]), near work and time spent outdoors. RESULTS: Among 1970 children, 1902 (96.5%, mean [standard deviation SD] age 9.80 [0.44] years, 53.1% boys) completed refraction and questionnaires. Myopia < = -0.50 Diopters was present in both eyes of 588 (30.9%) children (1329/3804 = 34.9% of eyes) and 1129 children (59.4%) had abnormal CSHQ scores (> 41). In logistic regression models by eye, odds of myopia < = -0.50D increased with worse CSHQ score (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.01 per point, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] [1.001, 1.02], P = 0.014) and more night-time sleep (OR 1.02, 95% CI [1.01, 1.04, P = 0.002], while male sex (OR 0.82, 95% CI [0.70, 0.95], P = 0.008) and time outdoors (OR = 0.97, 95% CI [0.95, 0.99], P = 0.011) were associated with less myopia. The association between sleep duration and myopia was not significant (p = 0.199) for total (night + midday) sleep. CONCLUSIONS: Myopia and disordered sleep were both common in this cohort, but we did not find consistent evidence for an association between the two. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT00848900.

Two-year changes in refractive error and related biometric factors in an adult Chinese population

Importance: This article provides, to our knowledge, the first longitudinal population-based data on refractive error (RE) in Chinese persons.

Objective: To study cohort effects and changes associated with aging in REs among Chinese adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants: A 2-year, longitudinal population-based cohort study was conducted in southern China. Participants, identified using cluster random sampling, included residents of Yuexiu District, Guangzhou, China, aged 35 years or older who had undergone no previous eye surgery.

Methods: Participants underwent noncycloplegic automated refraction and keratometry in December 2008 and December 2010; in a random 50% sample of the participants, anterior segment ocular coherence tomography measurement of lens thickness, as well as measurement of axial length and anterior chamber depth by partial coherence laser interferometry, were performed.

Main Outcomes and Measures: Two-year change in spherical equivalent refraction (RE), lens thickness, axial length, and anterior chamber depth in the right eye.

Results: A total of 745 individuals underwent biometric testing in both 2008 and 2010 (2008 mean [SD] age, 52.2 [11.5] years; 53.7% women). Mean RE showed a 2-year hyperopic shift from −0.44 (2.21) to −0.31 (2.26) diopters (D) (difference, +0.13; 95% CI, 0.11 to 0.16). A consistent 2-year hyperopic shift of 0.09 to 0.22 D was observed among participants aged 35 to 64 years when stratifying by decade, suggesting that a substantial change in RE with aging may occur during this 30-year period. Cross-sectionally, RE increased only in the cohort younger than 50 years (0.11 D/y; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.16). In the cross-sectional data, axial length decreased at −0.06 mm/y (95% CI, −0.09 to −0.04), although the 2-year change in axial length was positive and thus could not explain the cross-sectional difference. These latter results suggest a cohort effect, with greater myopia developing among younger persons.

Conclusions and Relevance: This first Chinese population-based longitudinal study of RE provides evidence for both important longitudinal aging changes and cohort effects, most notably greater myopia prevalence among younger persons.

Biometric measurements in highly myopic eyes

Purpose: To assess the repeatability and accuracy of optical biometry (Lenstar LS900 optical low-coherence reflectometry [OLCR] and IOLMaster partial coherence interferometry [PCI]) and applanation ultrasound biometry in highly myopic eyes. Setting: Division of Preventive Ophthalmology, Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Guangzhou, China. Design: Comparative evaluation of diagnostic technology. Methods: Biometric measurements were taken in highly myopic subjects with a spherical equivalent (SE) of -6.00 diopters (D) or higher and an axial length (AL) longer than 25.0 mm. Measurements of AL and anterior chamber depth (ACD) obtained by OLCR were compared with those obtained by PCI and applanation A-scan ultrasound. Right eyes were analyzed. Repeatability was evaluated using the coefficient of variation (CoV) and agreement, using Bland-Altman analyses. Results: The mean SE was -11.20 D ± 4.65 (SD). The CoVs for repeated AL measurements using OLCR, PCI, and applanation ultrasound were 0.06%, 0.07%, and 0.20%, respectively. The limits of agreement (LoA) for AL were 0.11 mm between OLCR and PCI, 1.01 mm between OLCR and applanation ultrasound, and 1.03 mm between PCI and ultrasound. The ACD values were 0.29 mm, 0.53 mm, and 0.51 mm, respectively. These repeatability and agreement results were comparable in eyes with extreme myopia (AL ≥27.0 mm) or posterior staphyloma. The mean radius of corneal curvature was similar between OLCR and PCI (7.66 ± 0.24 mm versus 7.64 ± 0.25 mm), with an LoA of 0.12 mm. Conclusion: Optical biometry provided more repeatable and precise measurements of biometric parameters, including AL and ACD, than applanation ultrasound biometry in highly myopic eyes. Financial Disclosure: No author has a financial or proprietary interest in any material or method mentioned. © 2012 ASCRS and ESCRS.

Robust Room Temperature Hysteresis in an FeIII Spin Crossover Metallomesogen

The high temperature magnetic and structural properties of an amphiphilic iron(III) spin crossover complex are reported. Thermal cycling reveals a scan rate-dependent 20 K thermal hysteresis in the mT vs. T data close to room temperature. A fast scan rate is essential for the hysteresis but it is robust and reproducible after multiple thermal cycles. Differential scanning calorimetry and cross polarized microscopy are used to show that the magnetic switching aligns with a material state change from solid to ordered liquid phase on warming.

Cigarette smokers have exaggerated alveolar barrier disruption in response to lipopolysaccharide inhalation

RATIONALE: Cigarette smoke exposure is associated with an increased risk of the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS); however, the mechanisms underlying this relationship remain largely unknown.

OBJECTIVE: To assess pathways of lung injury and inflammation in smokers and non-smokers with and without lipopolysaccharide (LPS) inhalation using established biomarkers.

METHODS: We measured plasma and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) biomarkers of inflammation and lung injury in smokers and non-smokers in two distinct cohorts of healthy volunteers, one unstimulated (n=20) and one undergoing 50 μg LPS inhalation (n=30).

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: After LPS inhalation, cigarette smokers had increased alveolar-capillary membrane permeability as measured by BAL total protein, compared with non-smokers (median 274 vs 208 μg/mL, p=0.04). Smokers had exaggerated inflammation compared with non-smokers, with increased BAL interleukin-1β (p=0.002), neutrophils (p=0.02), plasma interleukin-8 (p=0.003), and plasma matrix metalloproteinase-8 (p=0.006). Alveolar epithelial injury after LPS was more severe in smokers than non-smokers, with increased plasma (p=0.04) and decreased BAL (p=0.02) surfactant protein D. Finally, smokers had decreased BAL vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) (p<0.0001) with increased soluble VEGF receptor-1 (p=0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS: Cigarette smoke exposure may predispose to ARDS through an abnormal response to a 'second hit,' with increased alveolar-capillary membrane permeability, exaggerated inflammation, increased epithelial injury and endothelial dysfunction. LPS inhalation may serve as a useful experimental model for evaluation of the acute pulmonary effects of existing and new tobacco products.

Night-to-night variation of pulse oximetry in children with sleep-disordered breathing

BACKGROUND: Sleep-disordered breathing is a common and serious feature of many paediatric conditions and is particularly a problem in children with Down syndrome. Overnight pulse oximetry is recommended as an initial screening test, but it is unclear how overnight oximetry results should be interpreted and how many nights should be recorded.

METHODS: This retrospective observational study evaluated night-to-night variation using statistical measures of repeatability for 214 children referred to a paediatric respiratory clinic, who required overnight oximetry measurements. This included 30 children with Down syndrome. We measured length of adequate trace, basal SpO2, number of desaturations (>4% SpO2 drop for >10 s) per hour ('adjusted index') and time with SpO2<90%. We classified oximetry traces into normal or abnormal based on physiology.

RESULTS: 132 out of 214 (62%) children had three technically adequate nights' oximetry, including 13 out of 30 (43%) children with Down syndrome. Intraclass correlation coefficient for adjusted index was 0.54 (95% CI 0.20 to 0.81) among children with Down syndrome and 0.88 (95% CI 0.84 to 0.91) for children with other diagnoses. Negative predictor value of a negative first night predicting two subsequent negative nights was 0.2 in children with Down syndrome and 0.55 in children with other diagnoses.

CONCLUSIONS: There is substantial night-to-night variation in overnight oximetry readings among children in all clinical groups undergoing overnight oximetry. This is a more pronounced problem in children with Down syndrome. Increasing the number of attempted nights' recording from one to three provides useful additional clinical information.