Learning, fatigue and preference formation in discrete choice experiments

While the repeated nature of Discrete Choice Experiments is advantageous from a sampling efficiency perspective, patterns of choice may differ across the tasks, due, in part, to learning and fatigue. Using probabilistic decision process models, we find in a field study that learning and fatigue behavior may only be exhibited by a small subset of respondents. Most respondents in our sample show preference and variance stability consistent with rational pre-existent and
well formed preferences. Nearly all of the remainder exhibit both learning and fatigue effects. An important aspect of our approach is that it enables learning and fatigue effects to be explored, even though they were not envisaged during survey design or data collection.

Adjuvant bisphosphonate treatment in early breast cancer: meta-analyses of individual patient data from randomised trials

BACKGROUND: Bisphosphonates have profound effects on bone physiology, and could modify the process of metastasis. We undertook collaborative meta-analyses to clarify the risks and benefits of adjuvant bisphosphonate treatment in breast cancer.

METHODS: We sought individual patient data from all unconfounded trials in early breast cancer that randomised between bisphosphonate and control. Primary outcomes were recurrence, distant recurrence, and breast cancer mortality. Primary subgroup investigations were site of first distant recurrence (bone or other), menopausal status (postmenopausal [combining natural and artificial] or not), and bisphosphonate class (aminobisphosphonate [eg, zoledronic acid, ibandronate, pamidronate] or other [ie, clodronate]). Intention-to-treat log-rank methods yielded bisphosphonate versus control first-event rate ratios (RRs).

FINDINGS: We received data on 18 766 women (18 206 [97%] in trials of 2-5 years of bisphosphonate) with median follow-up 5·6 woman-years, 3453 first recurrences, and 2106 subsequent deaths. Overall, the reductions in recurrence (RR 0·94, 95% CI 0·87-1·01; 2p=0·08), distant recurrence (0·92, 0·85-0·99; 2p=0·03), and breast cancer mortality (0·91, 0·83-0·99; 2p=0·04) were of only borderline significance, but the reduction in bone recurrence was more definite (0·83, 0·73-0·94; 2p=0·004). Among premenopausal women, treatment had no apparent effect on any outcome, but among 11 767 postmenopausal women it produced highly significant reductions in recurrence (RR 0·86, 95% CI 0·78-0·94; 2p=0·002), distant recurrence (0·82, 0·74-0·92; 2p=0·0003), bone recurrence (0·72, 0·60-0·86; 2p=0·0002), and breast cancer mortality (0·82, 0·73-0·93; 2p=0·002). Even for bone recurrence, however, the heterogeneity of benefit was barely significant by menopausal status (2p=0·06 for trend with menopausal status) or age (2p=0·03), and it was non-significant by bisphosphonate class, treatment schedule, oestrogen receptor status, nodes, tumour grade, or concomitant chemotherapy. No differences were seen in non-breast cancer mortality. Bone fractures were reduced (RR 0·85, 95% CI 0·75-0·97; 2p=0·02).

INTERPRETATION: Adjuvant bisphosphonates reduce the rate of breast cancer recurrence in the bone and improve breast cancer survival, but there is definite benefit only in women who were postmenopausal when treatment began.

FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council.

Aromatase inhibitors versus tamoxifen in early breast cancer: patient-level meta-analysis of the randomised trials

BACKGROUND: The optimal ways of using aromatase inhibitors or tamoxifen as endocrine treatment for early breast cancer remains uncertain.

METHODS: We undertook meta-analyses of individual data on 31 920 postmenopausal women with oestrogen-receptor-positive early breast cancer in the randomised trials of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 5 years of tamoxifen; of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5; and of 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5 versus 5 years of tamoxifen. Primary outcomes were any recurrence of breast cancer, breast cancer mortality, death without recurrence, and all-cause mortality. Intention-to-treat log-rank analyses, stratified by age, nodal status, and trial, yielded aromatase inhibitor versus tamoxifen first-event rate ratios (RRs).

FINDINGS: In the comparison of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 5 years of tamoxifen, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors significantly during years 0-1 (RR 0·64, 95% CI 0·52-0·78) and 2-4 (RR 0·80, 0·68-0·93), and non-significantly thereafter. 10-year breast cancer mortality was lower with aromatase inhibitors than tamoxifen (12·1% vs 14·2%; RR 0·85, 0·75-0·96; 2p=0·009). In the comparison of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors significantly during years 0-1 (RR 0·74, 0·62-0·89) but not while both groups received aromatase inhibitors during years 2-4, or thereafter; overall in these trials, there were fewer recurrences with 5 years of aromatase inhibitors than with tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitors (RR 0·90, 0·81-0·99; 2p=0·045), though the breast cancer mortality reduction was not significant (RR 0·89, 0·78-1·03; 2p=0·11). In the comparison of 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5 versus 5 years of tamoxifen, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors significantly during years 2-4 (RR 0·56, 0·46-0·67) but not subsequently, and 10-year breast cancer mortality was lower with switching to aromatase inhibitors than with remaining on tamoxifen (8·7% vs 10·1%; 2p=0·015). Aggregating all three types of comparison, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors during periods when treatments differed (RR 0·70, 0·64-0·77), but not significantly thereafter (RR 0·93, 0·86-1·01; 2p=0·08). Breast cancer mortality was reduced both while treatments differed (RR 0·79, 0·67-0·92), and subsequently (RR 0·89, 0·81-0·99), and for all periods combined (RR 0·86, 0·80-0·94; 2p=0·0005). All-cause mortality was also reduced (RR 0·88, 0·82-0·94; 2p=0·0003). RRs differed little by age, body-mass index, stage, grade, progesterone receptor status, or HER2 status. There were fewer endometrial cancers with aromatase inhibitors than tamoxifen (10-year incidence 0·4% vs 1·2%; RR 0·33, 0·21-0·51) but more bone fractures (5-year risk 8·2% vs 5·5%; RR 1·42, 1·28-1·57); non-breast-cancer mortality was similar.

INTERPRETATION: Aromatase inhibitors reduce recurrence rates by about 30% (proportionately) compared with tamoxifen while treatments differ, but not thereafter. 5 years of an aromatase inhibitor reduces 10-year breast cancer mortality rates by about 15% compared with 5 years of tamoxifen, hence by about 40% (proportionately) compared with no endocrine treatment.

FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council.

The vascular targeting agent combretastatin-A4 and a novel cis-Restricted {beta}-Lactam Analogue, CA-432, induce apoptosis in human chronic myeloid leukemia cells and ex vivo patient samples including those displaying multidrug resistance

Combretastatin-A4 (CA-4) is a natural derivative of the African willow tree Combretum caffrum. CA-4 is one of the most potent antimitotic components of natural origin, but it is, however, intrinsically unstable. A novel series of CA-4 analogs incorporating a 3,4-diaryl-2-azetidinone (β-lactam) ring were designed and synthesized with the objective to prevent cis -trans isomerization and improve the intrinsic stability without altering the biological activity of CA-4. Evaluation of selected β-lactam CA-4 analogs demonstrated potent antitubulin, antiproliferative, and antimitotic effects in human leukemia cells. A lead β-lactam analog, CA-432, displayed comparable antiproliferative activities with CA-4. CA-432 induced rapid apoptosis in HL-60 acute myeloid leukemia cells, which was accompanied by depolymerization of the microtubular network, poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase cleavage, caspase-3 activation, and Bcl-2 cleavage. A prolonged G(2)M cell cycle arrest accompanied by a sustained phosphorylation of mitotic spindle checkpoint protein, BubR1, and the antiapoptotic proteins Bcl-2 and Bcl-x(L) preceded apoptotic events in K562 chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) cells. Molecular docking studies in conjunction with comprehensive cell line data rule out CA-4 and β-lactam derivatives as P-glycoprotein substrates. Furthermore, both CA-4 and CA-432 induced significantly more apoptosis compared with imatinib mesylate in ex vivo samples from patients with CML, including those positive for the T315I mutation displaying resistance to imatinib mesylate and dasatinib. In summary, synthetic intrinsically stable analogs of CA-4 that display significant clinical potential as antileukemic agents have been designed and synthesized.

Leukaemic transformation of donor cells in a patient receiving a second allogeneic bone marrow transplant for severe aplastic anaemia

Allogeneic blood or bone marrow transplantation is a successful treatment for leukaemia and severe aplastic anaemia (SAA). Graft rejection following transplantation for leukaemia is a rare event but leukaemic relapse may occur at varying rates, depending upon the stage of leukaemia at which the transplant was undertaken and the type of leukaemia. Relapse is generally assumed to occur in residual host cells, which are refractory to, or escape from the myeloablative conditioning therapy. Rare cases have been described, however, in which the leukaemia recurs in cells of donor origin. Lack of a successful outcome of blood or bone marrow transplantation for severe aplastic anaemia (SAA), however, is due to late graft rejection or graft-versus-host disease. Leukaemia in cells of donor origin has rarely been reported in patients following allogeneic bone marrow transplantation for SAA. This report describes leukaemic transformation in donor cells following a second allogeneic BMT for severe aplastic anaemia. PCR of short tandem repeats in bone marrow aspirates and in colonies derived from BFUE and CFU-GM indicated the donor origin of leukaemia. Donor leukaemia is a rare event following transplantation for severe aplastic anaemia but may represent the persistence or perturbation of a stromal defect in these patients inducing leukaemic change in donor haemopoietic stem cells.

Rejection of the second allogeneic graft in a patient with severe aplastic anemia reversed by antilymphocyte globulin and donor lymphocyte infusions

Rejection after allogeneic BMT for aplastic anemia is a complication with a high risk of mortality. We describe a patient who, following a second episode of rejection after a second BMT entered a third durable remission subsequent to treatment with ALG, donor lymphocyte infusions, GM-CSF, and erythropoietin. Therapy was well tolerated. At 5 years after rejection treatment, his hematopoiesis is of complete donor origin as determined by analyses of short tandem repeats. Thus, donor lymphocyte infusions can be considered as a therapy option for marrow rejection after allogeneic BMT for aplastic anemia.

A Conditional Approach for Modelling Patient Re-admissions in Hospital using a mixture of Coxian phase-type distributions incorporating Bayes Theorem

The number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation in Europe is rising. With a greater proportion of elderly people in the population comes a greater demand for health services and, in particular, hospital care. Thus, with a growing number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation competing with non-elderly patients for a fixed (and in some cases, decreasing) number of hospital beds, this results in much longer waiting times for patients, often with a less satisfactory hospital experience. However, if a better understanding of the recurring nature of elderly patient movements between the community and hospital can be developed, then it may be possible for alternative provisions of care in the community to be put in place and thus prevent readmission to hospital. The research in this paper aims to model the multiple patient transitions between hospital and community by utilising a mixture of conditional Coxian phase-type distributions that incorporates Bayes' theorem. For the purpose of demonstration, the results of a simulation study are presented and the model is applied to hospital readmission data from the Lombardy region of Italy.