Rapidly Evolving and Luminous Transients from Pan-STARRS1

In the past decade, several rapidly evolving transients have been discovered whose timescales and luminosities are not easily explained by traditional supernovae (SNe) models. The sample size of these objects has remained small due, at least in part, to the challenges of detecting short timescale transients with traditional survey cadences. Here we present the results from a search within the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey (PS1-MDS) for rapidly evolving and luminous transients. We identify 10 new transients with a time above half-maximum (t_1/2) of less than 12 days and -16.5 > M > -20 mag. This increases the number of known events in this region of SN phase space by roughly a factor of three. The median redshift of the PS1-MDS sample is z = 0.275 and they all exploded in star-forming galaxies. In general, the transients possess faster rise than decline timescale and blue colors at maximum light (g_P1-rP1 ≲ -0.2). Best-fit blackbodies reveal photospheric temperatures/radii that expand/cool with time and explosion spectra taken near maximum light are dominated by a blue continuum, consistent with a hot, optically thick, ejecta. We find it difficult to reconcile the short timescale, high peak luminosity (L > 10⁴³erg s^-1), and lack of UV line blanketing observed in many of these transients with an explosion powered mainly by the radioactive decay of ⁵⁶Ni. Rather, we find that many are consistent with either (1) cooling envelope emission from the explosion of a star with a low-mass extended envelope that ejected very little (<0.03 M) radioactive material, or (2) a shock breakout within a dense, optically thick, wind surrounding the progenitor star. After calculating the detection efficiency for objects with rapid timescales in the PS1-MDS we find a volumetric rate of 4800-8000 events yr^-1Gpc^-3(4%-7% of the core-collapse SN rate at z = 0.2).

The death of massive stars - II. Observational constraints on the progenitors of Type Ibc supernovae

The progenitors of many Type II core-collapse supernovae (SNe) have now been identified directly on pre-discovery imaging. Here, we present an extensive search for the progenitors of Type Ibc SNe in all available pre-discovery imaging since 1998. There are 12 Type Ibc SNe with no detections of progenitors in either deep ground-based or Hubble Space Telescope archival imaging. The deepest absolute BVR magnitude limits are between -4 and - 5 mag. We compare these limits with the observed Wolf-Rayet population in the Large Magellanic Cloud and estimate a 16 per cent probability that we have failed to detect such a progenitor by chance. Alternatively, the progenitors evolve significantly before core-collapse or we have underestimated the extinction towards the progenitors. Reviewing the relative rates and ejecta mass estimates from light-curve modelling of Ibc SNe, we find both incompatible with Wolf-Rayet stars with initial masses >25 M⊙ being the only progenitors. We present binary evolution models that fit these observational constraints. Stars in binaries with initial masses ≲ 20 M⊙ lose their hydrogen envelopes in binary interactions to become low-mass helium stars. They retain a low-mass hydrogen envelope until ≈104 yr before core-collapse; hence, it is not surprising that Galactic analogues have been difficult to identify.

SN 2010ay is a Luminous and Broad-lined Type Ic Supernova within a Low-metallicity Host Galaxy

We report on our serendipitous pre-discovery detection and follow-up observations of the broad-lined Type Ic supernova (SN Ic) 2010ay at z = 0.067 imaged by the Pan-STARRS1 3π survey just ~4 days after explosion. The supernova (SN) had a peak luminosity, MR ≈ -20.2 mag, significantly more luminous than known GRB-SNe and one of the most luminous SNe Ib/c ever discovered. The absorption velocity of SN 2010ay is v Si ≈ 19 × 103 km s-1 at ~40 days after explosion, 2-5 times higher than other broad-lined SNe and similar to the GRB-SN 2010bh at comparable epochs. Moreover, the velocity declines ~2 times slower than other SNe Ic-BL and GRB-SNe. Assuming that the optical emission is powered by radioactive decay, the peak magnitude implies the synthesis of an unusually large mass of 56Ni, M Ni = 0.9 M ⊙. Applying scaling relations to the light curve, we estimate a total ejecta mass, M ej ≈ 4.7 M ⊙, and total kinetic energy, EK ≈ 11 × 1051 erg. The ratio of M Ni to M ej is ~2 times as large for SN 2010ay as typical GRB-SNe and may suggest an additional energy reservoir. The metallicity (log (O/H)PP04 + 12 = 8.19) of the explosion site within the host galaxy places SN 2010ay in the low-metallicity regime populated by GRB-SNe, and ~0.5(0.2) dex lower than that typically measured for the host environments of normal (broad-lined) SNe Ic. We constrain any gamma-ray emission with E γ ~ 1048 erg. We therefore rule out the association of a relativistic outflow like those that accompanied SN 1998bw and traditional long-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), but we place less-stringent constraints on a weak afterglow like that seen from XRF 060218. If this SN did not harbor a GRB, these observations challenge the importance of progenitor metallicity for the production of relativistic ejecta and suggest that other parameters also play a key role.

An ultraviolet-optical flare from the tidal disruption of a helium-rich stellar core

The flare of radiation from the tidal disruption and accretion of a star can be used as a marker for supermassive black holes that otherwise lie dormant and undetected in the centres of distant galaxies. Previous candidate flares have had declining light curves in good agreement with expectations, but with poor constraints on the time of disruption and the type of star disrupted, because the rising emission was not observed. Recently, two `relativistic' candidate tidal disruption events were discovered, each of whose extreme X-ray luminosity and synchrotron radio emission were interpreted as the onset of emission from a relativistic jet. Here we report a luminous ultraviolet-optical flare from the nuclear region of an inactive galaxy at a redshift of 0.1696. The observed continuum is cooler than expected for a simple accreting debris disk, but the well-sampled rise and decay of the light curve follow the predicted mass accretion rate and can be modelled to determine the time of disruption to an accuracy of two days. The black hole has a mass of about two million solar masses, modulo a factor dependent on the mass and radius of the star disrupted. On the basis of the spectroscopic signature of ionized helium from the unbound debris, we determine that the disrupted star was a helium-rich stellar core.

UK publicly funded Clinical Trials Units supported a controlled access approach to share individual participant data but highlighted concerns

OBJECTIVES: Evaluate current data sharing activities of UK publicly funded Clinical Trial Units (CTUs) and identify good practices and barriers.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Web-based survey of Directors of 45 UK Clinical Research Collaboration (UKCRC)-registered CTUs.

RESULTS: Twenty-three (51%) CTUs responded: Five (22%) of these had an established data sharing policy and eight (35%) specifically requested consent to use patient data beyond the scope of the original trial. Fifteen (65%) CTUs had received requests for data, and seven (30%) had made external requests for data in the previous 12 months. CTUs supported the need for increased data sharing activities although concerns were raised about patient identification, misuse of data, and financial burden. Custodianship of clinical trial data and requirements for a CTU to align its policy to their parent institutes were also raised. No CTUs supported the use of an open access model for data sharing.

CONCLUSION: There is support within the publicly funded UKCRC-registered CTUs for data sharing, but many perceived barriers remain. CTUs are currently using a variety of approaches and procedures for sharing data. This survey has informed further work, including development of guidance for publicly funded CTUs, to promote good practice and facilitate data sharing.

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles

OBJECTIVE: Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland.

METHODS: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted.

RESULTS: Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS: Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity.

A realistic evaluation of track and trigger systems and acute care training for early recognition and treatment of deteriorating ward-based patients: research protocol.

Aim The aim of the study is to evaluate factors that enable or constrain the implementation and service delivery of early warnings systems or acute care training in practice. Background To date there is limited evidence to support the effectiveness of acute care initiatives (early warning systems, acute care training, outreach) in reducing the number of adverse events (cardiac arrest, death, unanticipated Intensive Care admission) through increased recognition and management of deteriorating ward based patients in hospital [1-3]. The reasons posited are that previous research primarily focused on measuring patient outcomes following the implementation of an intervention or programme without considering the social factors (the organisation, the people, external influences) which may have affected the process of implementation and hence measured end-points. Further research which considers the social processes is required in order to understand why a programme works, or does not work, in particular circumstances [4]. Method The design is a multiple case study approach of four general wards in two acute hospitals where Early Warning Systems (EWS) and Acute Life-threatening Events Recognition and Treatment (ALERT) course have been implemented. Various methods are being used to collect data about individual capacities, interpersonal relationships and institutional balance and infrastructures in order to understand the intended and unintended process outcomes of implementing EWS and ALERT in practice. This information will be gathered from individual and focus group interviews with key participants (ALERT facilitators, nursing and medical ALERT instructors, ward managers, doctors, ward nurses and health care assistants from each hospital); non-participant observation of ward organisation and structure; audit of patients' EWS charts and audit of the medical notes of patients who deteriorated during the study period to ascertain whether ALERT principles were followed. Discussion & progress to date This study commenced in January 2007. Ethical approval has been granted and data collection is ongoing with interviews being conducted with key stakeholders. The findings from this study will provide evidence for policy-makers to make informed decisions regarding the direction for strategic and service planning of acute care services to improve the level of care provided to acutely ill patients in hospital. References 1. Esmonde L, McDonnell A, Ball C, Waskett C, Morgan R, Rashidain A et al. Investigating the effectiveness of Critical Care Outreach Services: A systematic review. Intensive Care Medicine 2006; 32: 1713-1721 2. McGaughey J, Alderdice F, Fowler R, Kapila A, Mayhew A, Moutray M. Outreach and Early Warning Systems for the prevention of Intensive Care admission and death of critically ill patients on general hospital wards. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2007, Issue 3. www.thecochranelibrary.com 3. Winters BD, Pham JC, Hunt EA, Guallar E, Berenholtz S, Pronovost PJ (2007) Rapid Response Systems: A systematic review. Critical Care Medicine 2007; 35 (5): 1238-43 4. Pawson R and Tilley N. Realistic Evaluation. London; Sage: 1997

TAP Reactor Development and Application in the Kinetic Characterization of Catalysts for Heterogeneously Catalyzed Gas Phase Reactions

This manuscript describes the application and further development of the TAP technique in kinetic characterization of heterogeneous catalysis. The major application of TAP systems is to study mechanisms, kinetics and transport phenomena in heterogeneous catalysis, all of which is made possible by the sub-millisecond time resolution. Furthermore, the kinetic information obtained can be used to gain an insight into the mechanism occurring over the catalyst system. This is advantageous as heterogeneous catalysts with an improved efficiency can be developed as a result. TAP kinetic studies are carried out at low pressure (~1x10-7 mbar) and TAP pulses are sufficiently small (1013-1015 molecules) so as to maintain this low pressure. The use of a small number of molecules in comparison to the total number of active sites means the state of the catalyst remains relatively unchanged. The use of the low intensity pulses also makes the pressure gradient negligible and so allows the TAP reactor system to operate in the Knudsen Diffusion regime, where gas-gas reactions are eliminated. Hence only gas-catalyst reactions are investigated and, by the use of moment analysis of observed exit flow, rate constants of elementary steps of the reaction can be obtained.

In this manuscript, two attempts to further the TAP technique are reported. Firstly, the work undertaken at QUB to attempt to control the number of molecules of condensable reagents that can be pulsed during a TAP pulse experiment is disclosed. Secondly, a collaborative project with SAI Ltd Manchester is discussed in a separate chapter, where technical details and validation of a customised time of flight mass spectrometer (ToF MS) for the QUB TAP-1 system are reported. A collaborative project with Cardiff Catalysis Institute focusing on the study of CO oxidation over hopcalite catalysts is also reported. The analysis of the experimental results has provided an insight into the possible mechanism of the oxidation of CO over these catalysts. A correction function has also been derived which accounts for the adsorption of reactant molecules over inert materials that are used for the reactor packing in TAP experiments. This function was then applied to the selective reduction of O2 in a H2 rich ethene feed, so that more accurate TAP moment based analysis could be conducted.

Vaccinations and childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus: a meta-analysis of observational studies

Aims/hypothesis The aim of this study was to investigate the association between routine vaccinations and the risk of childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus by systematically reviewing the published literature and performing meta-analyses where possible.

Methods A comprehensive literature search was performed of MEDLINE and EMBASE to identify all studies that compared vaccination rates in children who subsequently developed type 1 diabetes mellitus and in control children. ORs and 95% CIs were obtained from published reports or derived from individual patient data and then combined using a random effects meta-analysis.

Results In total, 23 studies investigating 16 vaccinations met the inclusion criteria. Eleven of these contributed to meta-analyses which included data from between 359 and 11,828 childhood diabetes cases. Overall, there was no evidence to suggest an association between any of the childhood vaccinations investigated and type 1 diabetes mellitus. The pooled ORs ranged from 0.58 (95% CI 0.24, 1.40) for the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination in five studies up to 1.04 (95% CI 0.94, 1.14) for the haemophilus influenza B (HiB) vaccination in 11 studies. Significant heterogeneity was present in most of the pooled analyses, but was markedly reduced when analyses were restricted to study reports with high methodology quality scores. Neither this restriction by quality nor the original authors’ adjustments for potential confounding made a substantial difference to the pooled ORs.

Conclusions/interpretation This study provides no evidence of an association between routine vaccinations and childhood type 1 diabetes.

The application of a novel fluidised photo reactor under UV-Visible and natural solar irradiation in the photocatalytic generation of hydrogen

With advancements in the development of visible light responsive catalysts for H2 production frequently being reported, photocatalytic water splitting has become an attractive method as a potential ‘solar fuel generator’. The development of novel photo reactors which can enhance the potential of such catalyst, however, is rarely reported. This is particularly important as many reactor configurations are mass transport limited, which in term limits the efficiency of more effective photocatalysts in larger scale applications. This paper describes the performance of a novel fluidised photo reactor for the production of H2 over two catalysts under UV-Visible light and natural solar illumination. Catalysts Pt-C3N4 and NaTaO3.La were dispersed in the reactor and the rate of H2 was determined by GC-TCD analysis of the gas headspace. The unit was an annular reactor constructed from stainless steel 316 and quartz glass with a propeller located in the base to control fluidisation of powder catalysts. Reactor properties such as propeller rotational speed were found to enhance the photo activity of the system through the elimination of mass transport limitations and increasing light penetration. The optimum conditions for H2 evolution were found to be a propeller rotational speed of 1035 rpm and 144 W of UV-Visible irradiation, which produced a rate of 89 µmol h-1 g-1 over Pt-C3N4. Solar irradiation was provided by the George Ellery Hale Solar Telescope, located at the California Institute of Technology.

SN 2009ip at late times - an interacting transient at+2 years

We present photometric and spectroscopic observations of the interacting transient SN 2009ip taken during the 2013 and 2014 observing seasons. We characterize the photometric evolution as a steady and smooth decline in all bands, with a decline rate that is slower than expected for a solely Co-56-powered supernova at late phases. No further outbursts or eruptions were seen over a two year period from 2012 December until 2014 December. SN 2009ip remains brighter than its historic minimum from pre-discovery images. Spectroscopically, SN 2009ip continues to be dominated by strong, narrow (less than or similar to 2000 km s(-1)) emission lines of H, He, Ca, and Fe. While we make tenuous detections of [Fe II] lambda 7155 and [O I] lambda lambda 6300, 6364 lines at the end of 2013 June and the start of 2013 October, respectively, we see no strong broad nebular emission lines that could point to a core-collapse origin. In general, the lines appear relatively symmetric, with the exception of our final spectrum in 2014 May, when we observe the appearance of a redshifted shoulder of emission at +550 km s(-1). The lines are not blueshifted, and we see no significant near-or mid-infrared excess. From the spectroscopic and photometric evolution of SN 2009ip until 820 d after the start of the 2012a event, we still see no conclusive evidence for core-collapse, although whether any such signs could be masked by ongoing interaction is unclear.

Arsenic trioxide and all-trans retinoic acid treatment for acute promyelocytic leukaemia in all risk groups (AML17): results of a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND: Acute promyelocytic leukaemia is a chemotherapy-sensitive subgroup of acute myeloid leukaemia characterised by the presence of the PML-RARA fusion transcript. The present standard of care, chemotherapy and all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA), results in a high proportion of patients being cured. In this study, we compare a chemotherapy-free ATRA and arsenic trioxide treatment regimen with the standard chemotherapy-based regimen (ATRA and idarubicin) in both high-risk and low-risk patients with acute promyelocytic leukaemia.

METHODS: In the randomised, controlled, multicentre, AML17 trial, eligible patients (aged ≥16 years) with acute promyelocytic leukaemia, confirmed by the presence of the PML-RARA transcript and without significant cardiac or pulmonary comorbidities or active malignancy, and who were not pregnant or breastfeeding, were enrolled from 81 UK hospitals and randomised 1:1 to receive treatment with ATRA and arsenic trioxide or ATRA and idarubicin. ATRA was given to participants in both groups in a daily divided oral dose of 45 mg/m(2) until remission, or until day 60, and then in a 2 weeks on-2 weeks off schedule. In the ATRA and idarubicin group, idarubicin was given intravenously at 12 mg/m(2) on days 2, 4, 6, and 8 of course 1, and then at 5 mg/m(2) on days 1-4 of course 2; mitoxantrone at 10 mg/m(2) on days 1-4 of course 3, and idarubicin at 12 mg/m(2) on day 1 of the final (fourth) course. In the ATRA and arsenic trioxide group, arsenic trioxide was given intravenously at 0·3 mg/kg on days 1-5 of each course, and at 0·25 mg/kg twice weekly in weeks 2-8 of course 1 and weeks 2-4 of courses 2-5. High-risk patients (those presenting with a white blood cell count >10 × 10(9) cells per L) could receive an initial dose of the immunoconjugate gemtuzumab ozogamicin (6 mg/m(2) intravenously). Neither maintenance treatment nor CNS prophylaxis was given to patients in either group. All patients were monitored by real-time quantitative PCR. Allocation was by central computer minimisation, stratified by age, performance status, and de-novo versus secondary disease. The primary endpoint was quality of life on the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) QLQ-C30 global health status. All analyses are by intention to treat. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN55675535.

FINDINGS: Between May 8, 2009, and Oct 3, 2013, 235 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to ATRA and idarubicin (n=119) or ATRA and arsenic trioxide (n=116). Participants had a median age of 47 years (range 16-77; IQR 33-58) and included 57 high-risk patients. Quality of life did not differ significantly between the treatment groups (EORTC QLQ-C30 global functioning effect size 2·17 [95% CI -2·79 to 7·12; p=0·39]). Overall, 57 patients in the ATRA and idarubicin group and 40 patients in the ATRA and arsenic trioxide group reported grade 3-4 toxicities. After course 1 of treatment, grade 3-4 alopecia was reported in 23 (23%) of 98 patients in the ATRA and idarubicin group versus 5 (5%) of 95 in the ATRA and arsenic trioxide group, raised liver alanine transaminase in 11 (10%) of 108 versus 27 (25%) of 109, oral toxicity in 22 (19%) of 115 versus one (1%) of 109. After course 2 of treatment, grade 3-4 alopecia was reported in 25 (28%) of 89 patients in the ATRA and idarubicin group versus 2 (3%) of 77 in the ATRA and arsenic trioxide group; no other toxicities reached the 10% level. Patients in the ATRA and arsenic trioxide group had significantly less requirement for most aspects of supportive care than did those in the ATRA and idarubicin group.

INTERPRETATION: ATRA and arsenic trioxide is a feasible treatment in low-risk and high-risk patients with acute promyelocytic leukaemia, with a high cure rate and less relapse than, and survival not different to, ATRA and idarubicin, with a low incidence of liver toxicity. However, no improvement in quality of life was seen.

Social housing tenants, Climate Change and sustainable living: A study of awareness, behaviours and willingness to adapt

Despite a focus in the UK on providing sustainable housing in recent years, it is unlikely that targets set to reduce resource consumption in housing will be achieved without a greater focus on human behaviour. It is necessary to understand the actions of people occupying dwellings, as it is invariably the occupants rather than the buildings that decided whether or not to consume resources. In this paper the authors present a pilot study where 53 social housing tenant households in Northern Ireland were interviewed to ascertain their perceptions of Climate Change, their current behaviours and their willingness to reduce energy and water consumption in the home. The intention was to explore links between perceptions and reported behaviour as well as perceptions and willingness to reduce resource consumption. Results show that 77% of tenants believed Climate Change to be an important issue; 57% accepted that it is up to the individual to take responsibility for tackling Climate Change; and demonstrated a strong desire to make a difference to reduce their impact. The researchers identified both passive (devices) and active (behaviours) resource savings currently in place and established where further resource reduction was feasible based on tenants' willingness to alter their behaviours.