Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995–2009: analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control.

METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75,000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights.

FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease.

INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems.

The ejected mass distribution of Type Ia supernovae: a significant rate of non-Chandrasekhar-mass progenitors

The ejected mass distribution of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) directly probes progenitor evolutionary history and explosion mechanisms, with implications for their use as cosmological probes. Although the Chandrasekhar mass is a natural mass scale for the explosion of white dwarfs as SNe Ia, models allowing SNe Ia to explode at other masses have attracted much recent attention. Using an empirical relation between the ejected mass and the light-curve width, we derive ejected masses Mej and 56Ni masses MNi for a sample of 337 SNe Ia with redshifts z <0.7 used in recent cosmological analyses. We use hierarchical Bayesian inference to reconstruct the joint Mej-MNi distribution, accounting for measurement errors. The inferred marginal distribution of Mej has a long tail towards sub-Chandrasekhar masses, but cuts off sharply above 1.4 M⊙. Our results imply that 25-50 per cent of normal SNe Ia are inconsistent with Chandrasekhar-mass explosions, with almost all of these being sub-Chandrasekhar mass; super-Chandrasekhar-mass explosions make up no more than 1 per cent of all spectroscopically normal SNe Ia. We interpret the SN Ia width-luminosity relation as an underlying relation between Mej and MNi, and show that the inferred relation is not naturally explained by the predictions of any single known explosion mechanism.

The white dwarf's carbon fraction as a secondary parameter of Type Ia supernovae

Context. Binary stellar evolution calculations predict thatChandrasekhar-mass carbon/oxygen white dwarfs (WDs) show a radiallyvarying profile for the composition with a carbon depleted core. Manyrecent multi-dimensional simulations of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia),however, assume the progenitor WD has a homogeneous chemicalcomposition.
Aims: In this work, we explore the impact ofdifferent initial carbon profiles of the progenitor WD on the explosionphase and on synthetic observables in the Chandrasekhar-mass delayeddetonation model. Spectra and light curves are compared to observationsto judge the validity of the model.
Methods: The explosion phaseis simulated using the finite volume supernova code Leafs, which isextended to treat different compositions of the progenitor WD. Thesynthetic observables are computed with the Monte Carlo radiativetransfer code Artis. Results: Differences in binding energies ofcarbon and oxygen lead to a lower nuclear energy release for carbondepleted material; thus, the burning fronts that develop are weaker andthe total nuclear energy release is smaller. For otherwise identicalconditions, carbon depleted models produce less 56Ni.Comparing different models with similar 56Ni yields showslower kinetic energies in the ejecta for carbon depleted models, butonly small differences in velocity distributions and line velocities inspectra. The light curve width-luminosity relation (WLR) obtained formodels with differing carbon depletion is roughly perpendicular to theobserved WLR, hence the carbon mass fraction is probably only asecondary parameter in the family of SNe Ia.
Tables 3 and 4 are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Locations of peculiar supernovae as a diagnostic of their origins

We put constraints on the properties of the progenitors of peculiar calcium-rich transients using the distribution of locations within their host galaxies. We confirm that this class of transients do not follow the galaxy stellar mass profile and are more likely to be found in remote locations of their apparent hosts. We test the hypothesis that these transients are from low-metallicity progenitors by comparing their spatial distributions with the predictions of self-consistent cosmological simulations that include star formation and chemical enrichment. We find that while metal-poor stars and our transient sample show a consistent preference for large offsets, metallicity alone cannot explain the extreme cases. Invoking a lower age limit on the progenitor helps to improve the match, indicating these events may result from a very old metal-poor population. We also investigate the radial distribution of globular cluster systems, and show that they too are consistent with the class of calcium-rich transients. Because photometric upper limits exist for globular clusters for some members of the class, a production mechanism related to the dense environment of globular clusters is not favoured for the calcium-rich events. However, the methods developed in this paper may be used in the future to constrain the effects of low metallicity on radially distant core-collapse events or help establish a correlation with globular clusters for other classes of peculiar explosions.

Gamma-ray diagnostics of Type Ia supernovae. Predictions of observables from three-dimensional modeling

Context. Although the question of progenitor systems and detailed explosion mechanisms still remains a matter of discussion, it is commonly believed that Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are production sites of large amounts of radioactive nuclei. Even though the gamma-ray emission due to radioactive decays is responsible for powering the light curves of SNe Ia, gamma rays themselves are of particular interest as a diagnostic tool because they directly lead to deeper insight into the nucleosynthesis and the kinematics of these explosion events. Aims: We study the evolution of gamma-ray line and continuum emission of SNe Ia with the objective of analyzing the relevance of observations in this energy range. We seek to investigate the chances for the success of future MeV missions regarding their capabilities for constraining the intrinsic properties and the physical processes of SNe Ia. Methods: Focusing on two of the most broadly discussed SN Ia progenitor scenarios - a delayed detonation in a Chandrasekhar-mass white dwarf (WD) and a violent merger of two WDs - we used three-dimensional explosion models and performed radiative transfer simulations to obtain synthetic gamma-ray spectra. Both chosen models produce the same mass of 56Ni and have similar optical properties that are in reasonable agreement with the recently observed supernova SN 2011fe. We examine the gamma-ray spectra with respect to their distinct features and draw connections to certain characteristics of the explosion models. Applying diagnostics, such as line and hardness ratios, the detection prospects for future gamma-ray missions with higher sensitivities in the MeV energy range are discussed. Results: In contrast to the optical regime, the gamma-ray emission of our two chosen models proves to be quite different. The almost direct connection of the emission of gamma rays to fundamental physical processes occurring in SNe Ia permits additional constraints concerning several explosion model properties that are not easily accessible within other wavelength ranges. Proposed future MeV missions such as GRIPS will resolve all spectral details only for nearby SNe Ia, but hardness ratio and light curve measurements still allow for a distinction of the two different models at 10 Mpc and 16 Mpc for an exposure time of 106 s. The possibility of detecting the strongest line features up to the Virgo distance will offer the opportunity to build up a first sample of SN Ia detections in the gamma-ray energy range and underlines the importance of future space observatories for MeV gamma rays.

Do persistent organic pollutants interact with the stress response? Individual compounds, and their mixtures, interaction with the glucocorticoid receptor

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are toxic substances, highly resistant to environmental degradation, which can bio-accumulate and have long-range atmospheric transport potential (UNEP 2001). The majority of studies on endocrine disruption have focused on interferences on the sexual steroid hormones and so have overlooked disruption to glucocorticoid hormones. Here the endocrine disrupting potential of individual POPs and their mixtures has been investigated in vitro to identify any disruption to glucocorticoid nuclear receptor transcriptional activity. POP mixtures were screened for glucocorticoid receptor (GR) translocation using a GR redistribution assay (RA) on a CellInsight(TM) NXT High Content Screening (HCS) platform. A mammalian reporter gene assay (RGA) was then used to assess the individual POPs, and their mixtures, for effects on glucocorticoid nuclear receptor transactivation. POP mixtures did not induce GR translocation in the GR RA or produce an agonist response in the GR RGA. However, in the antagonist test, in the presence of cortisol, an individual POP, p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE), was found to decrease glucocorticoid nuclear receptor transcriptional activity to 72.5% (in comparison to the positive cortisol control). Enhanced nuclear transcriptional activity, in the presence of cortisol, was evident for the two lowest concentrations of perfluorodecanoic acid (PFOS) potassium salt (0.0147mg/ml and 0.0294mg/ml), the two highest concentrations of perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA) (0.0025mg/ml and 0.005mg/ml) and the highest concentration of 2,2',4,4'-tetrabromodiphenyl ether (BDE 47) (0.0000858mg/ml). It is important to gain a better understanding of how POPs can interact with GRs as the disruption of glucocorticoid action is thought to contribute to complex diseases.

Individual factors and perceived community characteristics in relation to mental health and mental well-being

Background
It has been argued that though correlated with mental health, mental well-being is a distinct entity. Despite the wealth of literature on mental health, less is known about mental well-being. Mental health is something experienced by individuals, whereas mental well-being can be assessed at the population level. Accordingly it is important to differentiate the individual and population level factors (environmental and social) that could be associated with mental health and well-being, and as people living in deprived areas have a higher prevalence of poor mental health, these relationships should be compared across different levels of neighbourhood deprivation.

Methods
A cross-sectional representative random sample of 1,209 adults from 62 Super Output Areas (SOAs) in Belfast, Northern Ireland (Feb 2010 – Jan 2011) were recruited in the PARC Study. Interview-administered questionnaires recorded data on socio-demographic characteristics, health-related behaviours, individual social capital, self-rated health, mental health (SF-8) and mental well-being (WEMWBS). Multi-variable linear regression analyses, with inclusion of clustering by SOAs, were used to explore the associations between individual and perceived community characteristics and mental health and mental well-being, and to investigate how these associations differed by the level of neighbourhood deprivation.

Results
Thirty-eight and 30 % of variability in the measures of mental well-being and mental health, respectively, could be explained by individual factors and the perceived community characteristics. In the total sample and stratified by neighbourhood deprivation, age, marital status and self-rated health were associated with both mental health and well-being, with the ‘social connections’ and local area satisfaction elements of social capital also emerging as explanatory variables. An increase of +1 in EQ-5D-3 L was associated with +1SD of the population mean in both mental health and well-being. Similarly, a change from ‘very dissatisfied’ to ‘very satisfied’ for local area satisfaction would result in +8.75 for mental well-being, but only in the more affluent of areas.

Conclusions
Self-rated health was associated with both mental health and mental well-being. Of the individual social capital explanatory variables, ‘social connections’ was more important for mental well-being. Although similarities in the explanatory variables of mental health and mental well-being exist, socio-ecological interventions designed to improve them may not have equivalent impacts in rich and poor neighbourhoods.

PTF11iqb: cool supergiant mass-loss that bridges the gap between Type IIn and normal supernovae

PTF11iqb was initially classified as a TypeIIn event caught very early after explosion. It showed narrow Wolf-Rayet (WR) spectral features on day 2, but the narrow emission weakened quickly and the spectrum morphed to resemble those of Types II-L and II-P. At late times, Halpha emission exhibited a complex, multipeaked profile reminiscent of SN1998S. In terms of spectroscopic evolution, we find that PTF11iqb was a near twin of SN~1998S, although with weaker interaction with circumstellar material (CSM) at early times, and stronger CSM interaction at late times. We interpret the spectral changes as caused by early interaction with asymmetric CSM that is quickly (by day 20) enveloped by the expanding SN ejecta photosphere, but then revealed again after the end of the plateau when the photosphere recedes. The light curve can be matched with a simple model for weak CSM interaction added to the light curve of a normal SN~II-P. This plateau requires that the progenitor had an extended H envelope like a red supergiant, consistent with the slow progenitor wind speed indicated by narrow emission. The cool supergiant progenitor is significant because PTF11iqb showed WR features in its early spectrum --- meaning that the presence of such WR features in an early SN spectrum does not necessarily indicate a WR-like progenitor. [abridged] Overall, PTF11iqb bridges SNe~IIn with weaker pre-SN mass loss seen in SNe II-L and II-P, implying a continuum between these types.

Analysis of the early-time optical spectra of SN 2011fe in M101

The nearby Type Ia supernova SN 2011fe in M101 (cz=241 km s^-1) provides a unique opportunity to study the early evolution of a "normal" Type Ia supernova, its compositional structure, and its elusive progenitor system. We present 18 high signal-to-noise spectra of SN 2011fe during its first month beginning 1.2 days post-explosion and with an average cadence of 1.8 days. This gives a clear picture of how various line-forming species are distributed within the outer layers of the ejecta, including that of unburned material (C+O). We follow the evolution of C II absorption features until they diminish near maximum light, showing overlapping regions of burned and unburned material between ejection velocities of 10,000 and 16,000 km s^-1. This supports the notion that incomplete burning, in addition to progenitor scenarios, is a relevant source of spectroscopic diversity among SNe Ia. The observed evolution of the highly Doppler-shifted O I 7774 absorption features detected within five days post-explosion indicate the presence of O I with expansion velocities from 11,500 to 21,000 km s^-1. The fact that some O I is present above C II suggests that SN 2011fe may have had an appreciable amount of unburned oxygen within the outer layers of the ejecta.

A novel method of microsatellite genotyping-by-sequencing using individual combinatorial barcoding

This study examines the potential of next-generation sequencing based ‘genotyping-by-sequencing’ (GBS) of microsatellite loci for rapid and cost-effective genotyping in large-scale population genetic studies. The recovery of individual genotypes from large sequence pools was achieved by PCR-incorporated combinatorial barcoding using universal primers. Three experimental conditions were employed to explore the possibility of using this approach with existing and novel multiplex marker panels and weighted amplicon mixture. The GBS approach was validated against microsatellite data generated by capillary electrophoresis. GBS allows access to the underlying nucleotide sequences that can reveal homoplasy, even in large datasets and facilitates cross laboratory transfer. GBS of microsatellites, using individual combinatorial barcoding, is potentially faster and cheaper than current microsatellite approaches and offers better and more data.

Validating the use of intrinsic markers in body feathers to identify inter‑individual differences in non‑breeding areas of northern fulmars

Many wildlife studies use chemical analyses to explore spatio-temporal variation in diet, migratory patterns and contaminant exposure. Intrinsic markers are particularly valuable for studying non-breeding marine predators, when direct methods of investigation are rarely feasible. However, any inferences regarding foraging ecology are dependent upon the time scale over which tissues such as feathers are formed. In this study, we validate the use of body feathers for studying non-breeding foraging patterns in a pelagic seabird, the northern fulmar. Analysis of carcasses of successfully breeding adult fulmars indicated that body feathers moulted between September and March, whereas analyses of carcasses and activity patterns suggested that wing feather and tail feather moult occurred during more restricted periods (September to October and September to January, respectively). By randomly sampling relevant body feathers, average values for individual birds were shown to be consistent. We also integrated chemical analyses of body feather with geolocation tracking data to demonstrate that analyses of δ13C and δ15N values successfully assigned 88 % of birds to one of two broad wintering regions used by breeding adult fulmars from a Scottish study colony. These data provide strong support for the use of body feathers as a tool for exploring non-breeding foraging patterns and diet in wide-ranging, pelagic seabirds.

Efficient Key Generation by Exploiting Randomness from Channel Responses of Individual OFDM Subcarriers

Key generation from the randomness of wireless channels is a promising technique to establish a secret cryptographic key securely between legitimate users. This paper proposes a new approach to extract keys efficiently from channel responses of individual orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) subcarriers. The efficiency is achieved by (i) fully exploiting randomness from time and frequency domains and (ii) improving the cross-correlation of the channel measurements. Through the theoretical modelling of the time and frequency autocorrelation relationship of the OFDM subcarrier's channel responses, we can obtain the optimal probing rate and use multiple uncorrelated subcarriers as random sources. We also study the effects of non-simultaneous measurements and noise on the cross-correlation of the channel measurements. We find the cross-correlation is mainly impacted by noise effects in a slow fading channel and use a low pass filter (LPF) to reduce the key disagreement rate and extend the system's working signal-to-noise ratio range. The system is evaluated in terms of randomness, key generation rate, and key disagreement rate, verifying that it is feasible to extract randomness from both time and frequency domains of the OFDM subcarrier's channel responses.