The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons

This study provides estimates of the macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) inChina and India for the period 2012–2030. Our estimates are derived using the World Health Organization’sEPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply andcapital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronicrespiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost ofthe five main NCDs will total USD 23.03 trillion for China and USD 4.58 trillion for India (in 2010 USD).For both countries, the most costly domain is cardiovascular disease. Our analyses also reveal that thecosts are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China’s higher and steeper income trajectory,and to a lesser extent its older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO’s best buys foraddressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial

Abundant genetic overlap between blood lipids and immune-mediated diseases indicates shared molecular genetic mechanisms

Epidemiological studies suggest a relationship between blood lipids and immune-mediated diseases, but the nature of these associations is not well understood. We used genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to investigate shared single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) between blood lipids and immune-mediated diseases. We analyzed data from GWAS (n~200,000 individuals), applying new False Discovery Rate (FDR) methods, to investigate genetic overlap between blood lipid levels [triglycerides (TG), low density lipoproteins (LDL), high density lipoproteins (HDL)] and a selection of archetypal immune-mediated diseases (Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, rheumatoid arthritis, type 1 diabetes, celiac disease, psoriasis and sarcoidosis). We found significant polygenic pleiotropy between the blood lipids and all the investigated immune-mediated diseases. We discovered several shared risk loci between the immune-mediated diseases and TG (n = 88), LDL (n = 87) and HDL (n = 52). Three-way analyses differentiated the pattern of pleiotropy among the immune-mediated diseases. The new pleiotropic loci increased the number of functional gene network nodes representing blood lipid loci by 40%. Pathway analyses implicated several novel shared mechanisms for immune pathogenesis and lipid biology, including glycosphingolipid synthesis (e.g. FUT2) and intestinal host-microbe interactions (e.g. ATG16L1). We demonstrate a shared genetic basis for blood lipids and immune-mediated diseases independent of environmental factors. Our findings provide novel mechanistic insights into dyslipidemia and immune-mediated diseases and may have implications for therapeutic trials involving lipid-lowering and anti-inflammatory agents.

Economics of Non-Communicable Diseases in Indonesia

The Economics of Non-Communicable Diseases in Indonesia provides new data on the economic burden of NCDs in the country, and puts it in perspective by drawing a comparison with India and China. With this new addition to the series on the economics of NCDs, the World Economic Forum aims to advance the understanding of the expected economic output loss at the country level, particularly in countries in economic and epidemiological transition. The evidence presented provides a starting point in reorienting the dialogue on investing in healthy living and NCD prevention in Indonesia towards the view that a healthy population is an important factor for sustainable growth.

The dynamics of murid gammaherpesvirus 4 within wild, sympatric populations of bank voles and wood mice

Murid gammaherpesvirus 4 (MuHV-4) is widely used as a small animal model for understanding gammaherpesvirus infections in man. However, there have been no epidemiological studies of the virus in wild populations of small mammals. As MuHV-4 both infects cells associated with the respiratory and immune systems and attempts to evade immune control via various molecular mechanisms, infection may reduce immunocompetence with potentially serious fitness consequences for individuals. Here we report a longitudinal study of antibody to MuHV-4 in a mixed assemblage of bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) and wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) in the UK. The study was conducted between April 2001 and March 2004. Seroprevalence was higher in wood mice than bank voles, supporting earlier work that suggested wood mice were the major host even though the virus was originally isolated from a bank vole. Analyses of both the probability of having antibodies and the probability of initial seroconversion indicated no clear seasonal pattern or relationship with host density. Instead, infection risk was most closely associated with individual characteristics, with heavier males having the highest risk. This may reflect individual variation in susceptibility, potentially related to variability in the ability to mount an effective immune response.

Farm animal welfare:Assessing risks attributable to the prenatal environment

An ever-expanding scientific literature highlights the impact of the prenatal environment on many areas of biology. Across all major farmed species, experimental studies have clearly shown that prenatal experiences can have a substantial impact on outcomes relevant to later health, welfare and productivity. In particular, stress or sub-optimal nutrition experienced by the mother during pregnancy has been shown to have wide-ranging and important effects on how her offspring cope with their social, physical and infectious environment. Variation in the conditions for development provided by the reproductive tract or egg, for instance by altered nutritional supply or hormonal exposure, may therefore explain a large degree of variation in many welfare- and productivity-relevant traits. The scientific literature suggests a number of management practices for pre-birth/hatch individuals that could compromise their later welfare. Such studies may have relevance for the welfare of animals under human care, depending on the extent to which real life conditions involve exposure to these practices. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of extending the focus on animal welfare to include the prenatal period, an aspect which until recently has been largely neglected. © 2012 Universities Federation for Animal Welfare The Old School.

Integrating personality research and animal contest theory:Aggressiveness in the green swordtail xiphophorus helleri

Aggression occurs when individuals compete over limiting resources. While theoretical studies have long placed a strong emphasis on context-specificity of aggression, there is increasing recognition that consistent behavioural differences exist among individuals, and that aggressiveness may be an important component of individual personality. Though empirical studies tend to focus on one aspect or the other, we suggest there is merit in modelling both within- and among-individual variation in agonistic behaviour simultaneously. Here, we demonstrate how this can be achieved using multivariate linear mixed effect models. Using data from repeated mirror trials and dyadic interactions of male green swordtails, Xiphophorus helleri, we show repeatable components of (co)variation in a suite of agonistic behaviour that is broadly consistent with a major axis of variation in aggressiveness. We also show that observed focal behaviour is dependent on opponent effects, which can themselves be repeatable but were more generally found to be context specific. In particular, our models show that within-individual variation in agonistic behaviour is explained, at least in part, by the relative size of a live opponent as predicted by contest theory. Finally, we suggest several additional applications of the multivariate models demonstrated here. These include testing the recently queried functional equivalence of alternative experimental approaches, (e.g., mirror trials, dyadic interaction tests) for assaying individual aggressiveness. © 2011 Wilson et al.

Prying into the intimate secrets of animal lives; software beyond hardware for comprehensive annotation in 'Daily Diary' tags

BACKGROUND: Smart tags attached to freely-roaming animals recording multiple parameters at infra-second rates are becoming commonplace, and are transforming our understanding of the way wild animals behave. Interpretation of such data is complex and currently limits the ability of biologists to realise the value of their recorded information.

DESCRIPTION: This work presents Framework4, an all-encompassing software suite which operates on smart sensor data to determine the 4 key elements considered pivotal for movement analysis from such tags (Endangered Species Res 4: 123-37, 2008). These are; animal trajectory, behaviour, energy expenditure and quantification of the environment in which the animal moves. The program transforms smart sensor data into dead-reckoned movements, template-matched behaviours, dynamic body acceleration-derived energetics and position-linked environmental data before outputting it all into a single file. Biologists are thus left with a single data set where animal actions and environmental conditions can be linked across time and space.

CONCLUSIONS: Framework4 is a user-friendly software that assists biologists in elucidating 4 key aspects of wild animal ecology using data derived from tags with multiple sensors recording at high rates. Its use should enhance the ability of biologists to derive meaningful data rapidly from complex data.

Step by step: reconstruction of terrestrial animal movement paths by dead-reckoning

BACKGROUND: Research on wild animal ecology is increasingly employing GPS telemetry in order to determine animal movement. However, GPS systems record position intermittently, providing no information on latent position or track tortuosity. High frequency GPS have high power requirements, which necessitates large batteries (often effectively precluding their use on small animals) or reduced deployment duration. Dead-reckoning is an alternative approach which has the potential to 'fill in the gaps' between less resolute forms of telemetry without incurring the power costs. However, although this method has been used in aquatic environments, no explicit demonstration of terrestrial dead-reckoning has been presented.

RESULTS: We perform a simple validation experiment to assess the rate of error accumulation in terrestrial dead-reckoning. In addition, examples of successful implementation of dead-reckoning are given using data from the domestic dog Canus lupus, horse Equus ferus, cow Bos taurus and wild badger Meles meles.

CONCLUSIONS: This study documents how terrestrial dead-reckoning can be undertaken, describing derivation of heading from tri-axial accelerometer and tri-axial magnetometer data, correction for hard and soft iron distortions on the magnetometer output, and presenting a novel correction procedure to marry dead-reckoned paths to ground-truthed positions. This study is the first explicit demonstration of terrestrial dead-reckoning, which provides a workable method of deriving the paths of animals on a step-by-step scale. The wider implications of this method for the understanding of animal movement ecology are discussed.

Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and food safety within the island of Ireland

Climate and other environmental change presents a number of challenges for effective food safety. Food production, distribution and consumption takes place within functioning ecosystems but this backdrop is often ignored or treated as static and unchanging. The risks presented by environmental change include novel pests and diseases, often caused by problem species expanding their spatial distributions as they track changing conditions, toxin generation in crops, direct effects on crop and animal production, consequences for trade networks driven by shifting economic viability of production methods in changing environments and finally, wholesale transformation of ecosystems as they respond to novel climatic regimes.

Targeting the complement system for the management of retinal inflammatory and degenerative diseases

The retina, an immune privileged tissue, has specialized immune defense mechanisms against noxious insults that may exist in diseases such as age-related macular degeneration (AMD), diabetic retinopathy (DR), uveoretinitis and glaucoma. The defense system consists of retinal innate immune cells (including microglia, perivascular macrophages, and a small population of dendritic cells) and the complement system. Under normal aging conditions, retinal innate immune cells and the complement system undergo a low-grade activation (parainflammation) which is important for retinal homeostasis. In disease states such as AMD and DR, the parainflammatory response is dysregulated and develops into detrimental chronic inflammation. Complement activation in the retina is an important part of chronic inflammation and may contribute to retinal pathology in these disease states. Here, we review the evidence that supports the role of uncontrolled or dysregulated complement activation in various retinal degenerative and angiogenic conditions. We also discuss current strategies that are used to develop complement-based therapies for retinal diseases such as AMD. The potential benefits of complement inhibition in DR, uveoretinitis and glaucoma are also discussed, as well as the need for further research to better understand the mechanisms of complement-mediated retinal damage in these disease states.

Statin use after diagnosis of breast cancer and survival: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND: Preclinical studies have shown that statins, particularly simvastatin, can prevent growth in breast cancer cell lines and animal models. We investigated whether statins used after breast cancer diagnosis reduced the risk of breast cancer-specific, or all-cause, mortality in a large cohort of breast cancer patients.

METHODS: A cohort of 17,880 breast cancer patients, newly diagnosed between 1998 and 2009, was identified from English cancer registries (from the National Cancer Data Repository). This cohort was linked to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, providing prescription records, and to the Office of National Statistics mortality data (up to 2013), identifying 3694 deaths, including 1469 deaths attributable to breast cancer. Unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for breast cancer-specific, and all-cause, mortality in statin users after breast cancer diagnosis were calculated using time-dependent Cox regression models. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using multiple imputation methods, propensity score methods and a case-control approach.

RESULTS: There was some evidence that statin use after a diagnosis of breast cancer had reduced mortality due to breast cancer and all causes (fully adjusted HR = 0.84 [95% confidence interval = 0.68-1.04] and 0.84 [0.72-0.97], respectively). These associations were more marked for simvastatin 0.79 (0.63-1.00) and 0.81 (0.70-0.95), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: In this large population-based breast cancer cohort, there was some evidence of reduced mortality in statin users after breast cancer diagnosis. However, these associations were weak in magnitude and were attenuated in some sensitivity analyses.