Regression analysis of spatial data

Many of the most interesting questions ecologists ask lead to analyses of spatial data. Yet, perhaps confused by the large number of statistical models and fitting methods available, many ecologists seem to believe this is best left to specialists. Here, we describe the issues that need consideration when analysing spatial data and illustrate these using simulation studies. Our comparative analysis involves using methods including generalized least squares, spatial filters, wavelet revised models, conditional autoregressive models and generalized additive mixed models to estimate regression coefficients from synthetic but realistic data sets, including some which violate standard regression assumptions. We assess the performance of each method using two measures and using statistical error rates for model selection. Methods that performed well included generalized least squares family of models and a Bayesian implementation of the conditional auto-regressive model. Ordinary least squares also performed adequately in the absence of model selection, but had poorly controlled Type I error rates and so did not show the improvements in performance under model selection when using the above methods. Removing large-scale spatial trends in the response led to poor performance. These are empirical results; hence extrapolation of these findings to other situations should be performed cautiously. Nevertheless, our simulation-based approach provides much stronger evidence for comparative analysis than assessments based on single or small numbers of data sets, and should be considered a necessary foundation for statements of this type in future.

Trends in the epidemiology of Candida bloodstream infections in Northern Ireland between January 1984 and December 2000

Objective: To describe the epidemiology of Candida bloodstream infections (BSI) in Northern Ireland. Methods: Retrospective collation of data relating to all clinically significant BSI in a university teaching hospital, which had been recorded prospectively, between 1984 and 2000. Results: One hundred and forty five episodes of candidaemia occurred in 144 patients (of mean age 56.6 years). The contribution of Candida spp. towards all significant BSI increased from 2.00% to 2.5%. C. albicans was the most frequently isolated species, however, its incidence fell from 70% to 53% during the study period. The greatest increase in incidence was seen with C. glabrata which was the most common non-albicans species. Twenty-nine per cent of isolates occurred in patients from an intensive care unit and, surprisingly, a further 25.5% occurred in patients from a surgical service. Conclusion: There appears to be several subtle differences in the epidemiology of candidal BSI between Northern Ireland and other countries. © 2002 The British Infection Society.

Trends in candidemia and antifungal susceptibility in a university hospital in Northern Ireland 2001-2006

Objectives: To describe the species distribution and antifungal susceptibility trends for documented episodes of candidemia at the Royal Hospitals, Belfast, 2001-2006. Methods: Laboratory-based retrospective observational study of all episodes of candidemia. Results: There were 151 episodes of candidemia. The species recovered were: 96 C. albicans; 26 C. glabrata; 18 C. parapsilosis; five C. tropicalis; four C. guilliermondii; one C. famata and one C. dubliniensis. We separated the data into two periods 2001-2003 and 2004-2006; contrary to the findings of other investigators, there was a notable trends toward increasing frequency of C. albicans and decreasing frequency of non-albicans species over time. Although the proportion of C. albicans, C. parapsilosis and C. tropicalis isolates susceptible to fluconazole was unchanged over time, a trend of decreased susceptibility of C. glabrata to fluconazole was noted over the six-year period. Overall, 73% and 7.7% of C. glabrata isolates had susceptible-dose-dependent and resistant phenotypes, respectively. The percentage of C. glabrata isolates susceptible to fluconazole (MIC

Trends in product recalls within the agri-food industry:Empirical evidence from the USA, UK and the Republic of Ireland

The increasing frequency of product recalls within the agri-food industry has led many to question food safety. Research studies also often focus on biological hazards without considering how past, present and emerging risks change over time. We undertake a systematic review of the different biological, operational and chemical hazards within the agri-food industry using a dataset of 2070 registered food recalls in the USA, UK and Republic of Ireland between 2004 and 2010. We show product recalls have become more frequent over time and operational hazards, rather than biological and chemical hazards, are the most frequent recall type within the agri-food industry. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Demersal fish biodiversity: species-level indicators and trends-based targets for the Marine Strategy Framework Directive

The maintenance of biodiversity is a fundamental theme of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Appropriate indicators to monitor change in biodiversity, along with associated targets representing "good environmental status" (GES), are required to be in place by July 2012. A method for selecting species-specific metrics to fulfil various specified indicator roles is proposed for demersal fish communities. Available data frequently do not extend far enough back in time to allow GES to be defined empirically. In such situations, trends-based targets offer a pragmatic solution. A method is proposed for setting indicator-level targets for the number of species-specific metrics required to meet their trends-based metric-level targets. This is based on demonstrating significant departures from the binomial distribution. The procedure is trialled using North Sea demersal fish survey data. Although fisheries management in the North Sea has improved in recent decades, management goals to stop further decline in biodiversity, and to initiate recovery, are yet to be met.

MODELING TRENDS IN SOCIAL FLUIDITY - THE CORE MODEL AND A MEASURED-VARIABLE APPROACH COMPARED

In this paper we employ Erikson and Goldthorpe's core model of social fluidity and a 'measured variable' approach to analyse trends in social mobility among men in the Republic of Ireland. Our analyses provide no evidence that the changes associated with industrialization have led to the increases in social fluidity predicted by the liberal theory of industrialism. The measured-variable approach we employ consistently provides a better fit to the Irish data than the core model. The application of the former model points to a degree of importance of the hierarchy dimension which is not captured adequately by the core model. It also suggests that the well-known distinctiveness of the Irish social mobility regime is open to explanation in terms of general dimensions rather than the peculiarities of the Irish case.

Trends in economic vulnerability in the Republic of Ireland

In this paper we evaluate trends in levels of economic vulnerability in Ireland during the period 1994-2001. We also document changes in the consequences of such vulnerability for social exclusion and in the social demographic factors with which it is associated. Over time there was a sharp decline in economic vulnerability. Furthermore, the degree of differentiation between the vulnerable and non-vulnerable classes in relation to both economic exclusion and social exclusion, more broadly conceived, remained relatively constant. Ireland is characterised by levels of socio-economic inequality that place it at the more unequal end of the European spectrum. However, the dramatic reductions in levels of vulnerability across the socio-economic spectrum demonstrate that the fruits of the economic boom have been distributed relatively widely.

Perceived causes of prescribing errors by junior doctors in hospital inpatients:a study from the PROTECT programme

Prescribing errors are a major cause of patient safety incidents. Understanding the underlying factors is essential in developing interventions to address this problem. This study aimed to investigate the perceived causes of prescribing errors among foundation (junior) doctors in Scotland.

Learning curves, taking instructions, and patient safety:using a theoretical domains framework in an interview study to investigate prescribing errors among trainee doctors

ABSTRACT:

Potentially inappropriate prescribing in older residents in Irish nursing homes

STOPP/START was formulated to identify potentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP) and potential prescribing omissions (PPOs) in older people. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of PIP and PPO in older Irish patients in residential care using STOPP/START.

Who makes prescribing decisions in hospital inpatients?:An observational study

Errors involving drug prescriptions are a key target for patient safety initiatives. Recent studies have focused on error rates across different grades of doctors in order to target interventions. However, many prescriptions are not instigated by the doctor who writes them. It is important to clarify how often this occurs in order to interpret these studies and create interventions. This study aimed to provisionally quantify and describe prescriptions where the identity of the decision maker and prescription writer differed.

Product standardisation as a tool to control prescribing costs a case study of alginate liquid preparations

Introduction Product standardisation involves promoting the prescribing of pre-selected products within a particular category across a healthcare region and is designed to improve patient safety by promoting continuity of medicine use across the primary/secondary care interface, in addition to cost containment without compromising clinical care (i.e. maintaining safety and efficacy). Objectives To examine the impact of product standardisation on the prescribing of compound alginate preparations within primary care in Northern Ireland. Methods Data were obtained on alginate prescribing from the Northern Ireland Central Services Agency (Prescription Pricing Branch), covering a period of 43 months. Two standardisation promotion interventions were carried out at months 18 and 33. In addition to conventional statistical analyses, a simple interrupted time series analysis approach, using graphical interpretation, was used to facilitate interpretation of the data. Results There was a significant increase in the prescribed share of the preferred alginate product in each of the four health boards in Northern Ireland and a decrease in the cost per Defined Daily Dose for alginate liquid preparations overall. Compliance with the standardisation policy was, however, incomplete and was influenced to a marked degree by the activities of the pharmaceutical industry. The overall economic impact of the prescribing changes during the study was small (3.1%). Conclusion The findings suggested that product standardisation significantly influenced the prescribing pattern for compound alginate liquid preparations within primary care across Northern Ireland. © 2012 The Authors. IJPP © 2012 Royal Pharmaceutical Society.

Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background. From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates, across the populations. Methods. In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings. Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation. Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.