Trends in coronary risk factors in the WHO MONICA Project

Background. The World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project was established to determine how trends in event rates for coronary heart disease (CHD) and, optionally, stroke were related to trends in classic coronary risk factors. Risk factors were therefore monitored over ten years across 38 populations from 21 countries in four continents (overall period covered: 1979-1996). Methods. A standard protocol was applied across participating centres, in at least two, and usually three, independent surveys conducted on random samples of the study populations, well separated within the 10-year study period. Results. Smoking rates decreased in most male populations (35-64 years) but in females the majority showed increases. Systolic blood pressure showed decreasing trends in the majority of centres in both sexes. Mean levels of cholesterol generally showed downward trends, which, although the changes were small, had large effects on risk. There was a trend of increasing body mass index (BMI) with half the female populations and two-thirds of the male populations showing a significant increase. Conclusions. It is feasible to monitor the classic CHD risk factors in diverse populations through repeated surveys over a decade. In general, the risk factor trends are downwards in most populations but in particular, an increase in smoking in women in many populations and increasing BMI, especially in men, are worrying findings with significant public health implications.

A comparison of Diamond Forrester and coronary calcium scores as gatekeepers for investigations of stable chest pain

To determine if calcium scores (CS) could act as a more effective gatekeeper than Diamond Forrester (DF) in the assessment of patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). A sub-study of the Cardiac CT for the Assessment of Chest Pain and Plaque (CAPP) study, a randomised control trial evaluating the cost-effectiveness of cardiac CT in symptomatic patients with stable chest pain. Stable pain was defined as troponin negative pain without symptoms of unstable angina. 250 patients undergoing cardiac CT had both DF scores and CS calculated, with the accuracy of both evaluated against CT coronary angiogram. Criteria given in UK national guidelines were compared. Of the 250 patients, 4 withdrew. 140 (57 %) patients were male. The mean DF was 47.8 and mean CS 172.5. Of the 144 patients with non-anginal pain 19.4 % had significant disease (>50 % stenosis). In general the DF over estimated the presence of CAD whereas the CS reclassified patients to lower risk groups, with 91 in the high risk DF category compared to 26 in the CS. Both receiver operating curve and McNemar Bowker test analysis suggested the DF was less accurate in the prediction of CAD compared to CS [Formula: see text] Projected downstream investigations were also calculated, with the cost per number of significant stenoses identified cheaper with the CS criteria. Patients with suspected stable CAD are more accurately risk stratified by CS compared to the traditional DF. CS was more successful in the prediction of significant stenosis and appears to be more effective at targeting clinical resources to those patients that are in need of them.

Detection of acute coronary occlusion in patients with acute coronary syndromes presenting with isolated ST-segment depression

This study sought to determine whether 80-lead body surface potential mapping (BSPM) would improve detection of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and occluded culprit artery in patients presenting with ST-segment depression (STD) only on 12-lead ECG.

Genetic Markers Enhance Coronary Risk Prediction in Men: The MORGAM Prospective Cohorts

Background: More accurate coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction, specifically in middle-aged men, is needed to reduce the burden of disease more effectively. We hypothesised that a multilocus genetic risk score could refine CHD prediction beyond classic risk scores and obtain more precise risk estimates using a prospective cohort design.

Methods: Using data from nine prospective European cohorts, including 26,221 men, we selected in a case-cohort setting 4,818 healthy men at baseline, and used Cox proportional hazards models to examine associations between CHD and risk scores based on genetic variants representing 13 genomic regions. Over follow-up (range: 5-18 years), 1,736 incident CHD events occurred. Genetic risk scores were validated in men with at least 10 years of follow-up (632 cases, 1361 non-cases). Genetic risk score 1 (GRS1) combined 11 SNPs and two haplotypes, with effect estimates from previous genome-wide association studies. GRS2 combined 11 SNPs plus 4 SNPs from the haplotypes with coefficients estimated from these prospective cohorts using 10-fold cross-validation. Scores were added to a model adjusted for classic risk factors comprising the Framingham risk score and 10-year risks were derived.

Results: Both scores improved net reclassification (NRI) over the Framingham score (7.5%, p = 0.017 for GRS1, 6.5%, p = 0.044 for GRS2) but GRS2 also improved discrimination (c-index improvement 1.11%, p = 0.048). Subgroup analysis on men aged 50-59 (436 cases, 603 non-cases) improved net reclassification for GRS1 (13.8%) and GRS2 (12.5%). Net reclassification improvement remained significant for both scores when family history of CHD was added to the baseline model for this male subgroup improving prediction of early onset CHD events.

Conclusions: Genetic risk scores add precision to risk estimates for CHD and improve prediction beyond classic risk factors, particularly for middle aged men.

The hydrodynamics of small seabed mounted bottom hinged wave energy converters in shallow water:PhD thesis

This thesis investigates the hydrodynamics of a small, seabed mounted, bottom hinged, wave energy converter in shallow water. The Oscillating Wave Surge Converter is a pitching flap-type device which is located in 10-15m of water to take advantage of the amplification of horizontal water particle motion in shallow water. A conceptual model of the hydrodynamics of the device has been formulated and shows that, as the motion of the flap is highly constrained, the magnitude of the force applied to the flap by the wave is strongly linked to the power absorption.

An extensive set of experiments has been carried out in the wave tank at Queen’s University at both 40th and 20th scales. The experiments have included testing in realistic sea states to estimate device performance as well as fundamental tests using small amplitude monochromatic waves to determine the force applied to the flap by the waves. The results from the physical modelling programme have been used in conjunction with numerical data from WAMIT to validate the conceptual model.

The work finds that tuning the OWSC to the incident wave periods is problematic and only results in a marginal increase in power capture. It is also found that the addition of larger diameter rounds to the edges of the flap reduces viscous losses and has a greater effect on the performance of the device than tuning. As wave force is the primary driver of device performance it is shown that the flap should fill the water column and should pierce the water surface to reduce losses due to wave overtopping.

With the water depth fixed at approximately 10m it is shown that the width of the flap has the greatest impact on the magnitude of wave force, and thus device performance. An 18m wide flap is shown to have twice the absorption efficiency of a 6m wide flap and captures 6 times the power. However, the increase in power capture with device width is not limitless and a 24m wide flap is found to be affected by two-dimensional hydrodynamics which reduces its performance per unit width, especially in sea states with short periods. It is also shown that as the width increases the performance gains associated with the addition of the end effectors reduces. Furthermore, it is shown that as the flap width increases the natural pitching period of the flap increases, thus detuning the flap further from the wave periods of interest for wave energy conversion.

The effect of waves approaching the flap from an oblique angle is also investigated and the power capture is found to decrease with the cosine squared of the encounter angle. The characteristic of the damping applied by the power take off system is found to have a significant effect on the power capture of the device, with constant damping producing between 20% and 30% less power than quadratic damping. Furthermore, it is found that applying a higher level of damping, or a damping bias, to the flap as it pitches towards the beach increases the power capture by 10%.

A further set of experiments has been undertaken in a case study used to predict the power capture of a prototype of the OWSC concept. The device, called the Oyster Demonstrator, has been developed by Aquamarine Power Ltd. and is to be installed at the European Marine Energy Centre, Scotland, in 2009.

The work concludes that OWSC is a viable wave energy converter and absorption efficiencies of up 75% have been measured. It is found that to maximise power absorption the flap should be approximately 20m wide with large diameter rounded edges, having its pivot close to the seabed and its top edge piercing the water surface.

Comparing the decline in coronary heart disease and stroke mortality in neighbouring countries with different healthcare systems

Objective
To examine age and gender specific trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality in two neighbouring countries, the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and Northern Ireland (NI). Design Epidemiological study of time trends in CHD and stroke mortality.

Setting/patients
The populations of the ROI and NI, 1985–2010.

Interventions
None.

Main outcome measures
Directly age standardised CHD and stroke mortality rates were calculated and analysed using joinpoint regression to identify years where the slope of the linear trend changed significantly. This was performed separately for specific age groups (25–54, 55–64, 65–74 and 75–84 years) and by gender. Annual percentage change (APC) and 95% CIs are presented.

Results
There was a striking similarity between the two countries, with percentage change between 1985 and 1989 and between 2006 and 2010 of 67% and 69% in
CHD mortality, and 64% and 62% in stroke mortality for the ROI and NI, respectively. However, joinpoint analysis identified differences in the pace of change between the two countries. There was an accelerated pace of decline (negative APC) in mortality for both CHD and stroke in both countries from the mid-1990s (APC ROI −8% (95% CI −9.5 to 6.5) and NI −6.6% (−6.9 to −6.3)), but the accelerated decrease started later for CHD mortality in the ROI. In recent years, a levelling off in CHD mortality was observed in the 25–54 year age group in NI and in stroke mortality for men and women in the ROI.

Conclusions
While differences in the pace of change in mortality were observed at different time points, similar, substantial decreases in CHD and stroke mortality were achieved between 1985 and 1989 and between 2006 and 2010 in the ROI and NI despite important differences in health service structures. There is evidence of a levelling in mortality rates in some groups in recent years.

Large-scale association analysis identifies new risk loci for coronary artery disease

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the commonest cause of death. Here, we report an association analysis in 63,746 CAD cases and 130,681 controls identifying 15 loci reaching genome-wide significance, taking the number of susceptibility loci for CAD to 46, and a further 104 independent variants (r(2)

Could occupational physical activity mitigate the link between moderate kidney dysfunction and coronary heart disease?

Background

Chronic kidney disease is now regarded as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. The impact of occupational or non-occupational physical activity (PA) on moderate decreases of renal function is uncertain.

We aimed to identify the potential association of PA (occupational and leisure-time) on early decline of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and to determine the potential mediating effect of PA on the relationship between eGFR and heart disease.

From the PRIME study analyses were conducted in 1058 employed men. Energy expended during leisure, work and commuting was calculated. Linear regression analyses were used to determine the link between types of PA and moderate decrements of eGFR determined with the KDIGO guideline at the baseline assessment. Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to explore the potential effect of PA on the relationship between eGFR and heart disease, ascertained during follow-up over 10 years.

For these employed men, and after adjustment for known confounders of GFR change, more time spent sitting at work was associated with increased risk of moderate decline in kidney function, while carrying objects or being active at work was associated with decreased risk. In contrast, no significant link with leisure PA was apparent. No potential mediating effect of occupational PA was found for the relationship between eGFR and coronary heart disease.

Occupational PA (potential modifiable factors) could provide a dual role on early impairment of renal function, without influence on the relationship between early decrease of e-GFR and CHD risk.

Understanding coronary heart disease-related disability in older adults in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in 2010/2011

Background

Although life expectancy continues to increase in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and Northern Ireland (NI), coronary heart disease (CHD) remains a leading cause of death and disability in older adults. Some, but not all, of the socioeconomic inequality in cardiovascular disability can be explained by a social gradient in conventional risk factors. The aims of the research were to assess CHD-related disability, and to establish the prevalence and population attributable fractions (PAFs) of risk factors for CHD-related disability across gender and socioeconomic groups in older adults in NI and ROI.

Contractile properties of human renal cell carcinoma recruited arteries and their response to nicotinamide

Background and purpose: The manipulation of tumour blood supply and thus oxygenation is a potentially important strategy for improving the treatment of solid tumours by radiation. Increased knowledge about the characteristics that distinguish the tumour vasculature from its normal counterparts may enable tumour blood flow to be more selectively modified, Nicotinamide (NA) causes relaxation of preconstricted normal and tumour-supply arteries in rats. It has also been shown to affect microregional blood flow in human tumours. Direct effects of NA on human tumour supply arteries have not previously been reported. This paper describes our evaluation of the effects of NA on two parameters: 'spontaneous', oscillatory contractile activity and agonist (phenylephrine)-induced constriction in the arteries supplying human renal cell carcinomas.

Materials and methods: Isolated renal cell carcinoma feeder vessels were perfused in an organ bath with the alpha(1)-adrenoceptor agonist phenylephrine (PE). When the arteries had reached a plateau of constriction, nicotinamide (8.2 mM) was added to the perfusate and changes in perfusion pressure were measured.

Results: PE (10 mu M) induced a sustained constriction in the majority of the renal cell carcinoma feeder vessels examined, demonstrating that they retain contractile characteristics, at least in response to this alpha(1)-adrenoceptor agonist. In combination with NA (8.2 mM) the constriction was significantly attenuated in half of the preparations. In addition, seven arteries exhibited spontaneous contractile activity which was significantly attenuated by NA in six of them.

Conclusions: NA can significantly attenuate both 'spontaneous' and agonist-induced constrictions in tumour-recruited human arteries, though not all arteries are sensitive. Published by Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd.