Holding parties responsible at election time: Multi-level, multi-party government and electoral accountability

This paper highlights the crucial role played by party-specific responsibility attributions in performance-based voting. Three models of electoral accountability, which make distinct assumptions regarding citizens' ability to attribute responsibility to distinct governing parties, are tested in the challenging Northern Ireland context - an exemplar case of multi-level multi-party government in which expectations of performance based voting are low. The paper demonstrates the operation of party-attribution based electoral accountability, using data from the 2011 Northern Ireland Assembly Election Study. However, the findings are asymmetric: accountability operates in the Protestant/unionist bloc but not in the Catholic/nationalist bloc. This asymmetry may be explained by the absence of clear ethno-national ideological distinctions between the unionist parties (hence providing political space for performance based accountability to operate) but the continued relevance in the nationalist bloc of ethno-national difference (which limits the scope for performance politics). The implications of the findings for our understanding of the role of party-specific responsibility attribution in performance based models of voting, and for our evaluation of the quality of democracy in post-conflict consociational polities, are discussed. 

Estimating policy positions from political texts

The analysis of policy-based party;;competition will not make serious progress beyond the constraints of (a) the unitary actor assumption and (b) a static approach to analyzing party competition between elections until a method is available for deriving; reliable and valid time-series estimates of the policy positions of large numbers of political actors. Retrospective estimation of these positions;In past party systems will require a method for estimating policy positions from political texts.

Previous hand-coding content analysis schemes deal with policy emphasis rather than policy positions. We propose a new hand-coding scheme for policy positions, together with a new English language computer,coding scheme that is compatible with this. We apply both schemes; to party manifestos from Britain and Ireland in 1992 and 1997 and cross validate the resulting estimates with :those derived from quite independent expert surveys and with previous,manifesto analyses.

There is a high degree of cross validation between coding methods. including computer coding. This implies that it is indeed possible to use computer-coded content analysis to derive reliable and valid estimates of policy positions from political texts. This will allow vast Volumes of text to be coded, including texts generated by individuals and other internal party actors, allowing the empirical elaboration of dynamic rather than static models of party competition that move beyond the unitary actor assumption.

The British conservative party and Europe:The choosing of John Major

This article provides an empirical analysis of voting behaviour in the second ballot of the 1990 Conservative leadership contest that resulted in John Major becoming party leader and prime minister. Seven hypotheses of voting behaviour are generated from the extant literature relating voting to socio-economic variables (occupational and educational background), political variables (parliamentary experience, career status, age and electoral marginality) and ideological variables (drawn from survey data on MPs' positions on economic, European and moral issues). These hypotheses are tested using data on voting intentions gathered from published lists of MPs' declarations, interviews with each of the leadership campaign teams, and correspondence with MPs. Bivariate relationships are presented, followed by logistic regression analysis to isolate the unique impact that each variable had on voting. This shows that educational background, parliamentary experience and (especially) attitudes to Europe were the key factors determining voting. The importance of Europe in the contest is particularly instructive: the severe problems for Major's leadership which were caused by the issue can be attributed to, and understood in the context of, the 1990 contest in which he became leader.

An official American thoracic society research statement: Comparative effectiveness research in pulmonary, critical care, and sleep medicine

Background: Comparative effectiveness research (CER) is intended to inform decision making in clinical practice, and is central to patientcentered outcomes research (PCOR). Purpose: To summarize key aspects of CER definitions and provide examples highlighting the complementary nature of efficacy and CER studies in pulmonary, critical care, and sleep medicine. Methods: An ad hoc working group of the American Thoracic Society with experience in clinical trials, health services research, quality improvement, and behavioral sciences in pulmonary, critical care, and sleepmedicinewas convened. The group used an iterative consensus process, including a reviewbyAmerican Thoracic Society committees and assemblies. Results: The traditional efficacy paradigm relies on clinical trials with high internal validity to evaluate interventions in narrowly defined populations and in research settings. Efficacy studies address the question, "Can it work in optimal conditions?" The CER paradigm employs a wide range of study designs to understand the effects of interventions in clinical settings. CER studies address the question, "Does it work in practice?" The results of efficacy and CER studies may or may not agree. CER incorporates many attributes of outcomes research and health services research, while placing greater emphasis on meeting the expressed needs of nonresearcher stakeholders (e.g., patients, clinicians, and others). Conclusions: CER complements traditional efficacy research by placing greater emphasis on the effects of interventions in practice, and developing evidence to address the needs of the many stakeholders involved in health care decisions. Stakeholder engagement is an important component of CER. Copyright © 2013 by the American Thoracic Society.

Legislating for political gender quotas in Ireland

In July 2012, legislation on political party funding and candidate gender quotas was enacted by the Irish Parliament. The Electoral (Amendment) (Political Funding) Act 2012 provides for a 30% gender quota for party candidates at the next general election, rising to 40% seven years thereafter. Non-compliant parties will lose half of their annual state funding. Informed by insights from feminist institutionalism, this paper will consider the question: why did Irish political parties, who have always been so reluctant to tackle the question of women’s under-representation, suddenly do a volte-face and introduce such a radical measure as legislative gender quotas? In answering this question, we argue that the political reform discourse that emerged following the recent Irish economic crisis was a significant factor in the adoption of legislative gender quotas in the Republic of Ireland. It signified, and made visible, the divergence between politicians and the public on the issue in a context where political representatives were under question, and political institutions being criticised, for ineffective political management. We contend that Ireland is an example of how apparently enduring and immutable gender norms can be overcome. We suggest that feminist institutionalism enables an unpacking of the messy complexities of institutional resistance to change and reveals the power of informal institutions to shape outcomes leading to a major formal rule change.

Economic Citizenship and Workplace Conflict in Anglo-American Industrial Relations Systems

This article argues that the expansion of individual employment rights is presenting a series of challenges to the collective model of economic citizenship that prevailed in most of the Anglo-American world during the last century. We examine developments in the management of workplace conflict in Anglo-American countries to highlight the institutional manoeuvrings that have been taking place to mould the nature of national regimes of employment rights. We argue that Governments almost everywhere are actively seeking to create institutional regimes that weaken the impact of employment legislation and we find that statutory dispute resolution agencies are eagerly trying to develop organizational identities that are aligned with rights-based employment disputes.

WHO guidelines for a healthy diet and mortality from cardiovascular disease in European and American elderly: the CHANCES project

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) represents a leading cause of mortality worldwide, especially in the elderly. Lowering the number of CVD deaths requires preventive strategies targeted on the elderly.

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to generate evidence on the association between WHO dietary recommendations and mortality from CVD, coronary artery disease (CAD), and stroke in the elderly aged ≥60 y.

DESIGN: We analyzed data from 10 prospective cohort studies from Europe and the United States comprising a total sample of 281,874 men and women free from chronic diseases at baseline. Components of the Healthy Diet Indicator (HDI) included saturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, mono- and disaccharides, protein, cholesterol, dietary fiber, and fruit and vegetables. Cohort-specific HRs adjusted for sex, education, smoking, physical activity, and energy and alcohol intakes were pooled by using a random-effects model.

RESULTS: During 3,322,768 person-years of follow-up, 12,492 people died of CVD. An increase of 10 HDI points (complete adherence to an additional WHO guideline) was, on average, not associated with CVD mortality (HR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.86, 1.03), CAD mortality (HR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.85, 1.14), or stroke mortality (HR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.88, 1.03). However, after stratification of the data by geographic region, adherence to the HDI was associated with reduced CVD mortality in the southern European cohorts (HR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.96; I(2) = 0%) and in the US cohort (HR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.83, 0.87; I(2) = not applicable).

CONCLUSION: Overall, greater adherence to the WHO dietary guidelines was not significantly associated with CVD mortality, but the results varied across regions. Clear inverse associations were observed in elderly populations in southern Europe and the United States.

Epidemiology of Dysglycemia in Pregnant Oklahoma American Indian Women

CONTEXT: Minority communities are disproportionately affected by diabetes, and minority women are at an increased risk for glucose intolerance (dysglycemia) during pregnancy.

OBJECTIVES: In pregnant American Indian women, the objectives of the study were to use current criteria to estimate the prevalence of first-trimester (Tr1) dysglycemia and second-trimester (Tr2) incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and to explore new candidate measures and identify associated clinical factors.

DESIGN: This was a prospective cohort study. In Tr1 we performed a 75-g, 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) to determine the following: fasting insulin; homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance; serum 1,5-anhydroglucitol; noninvasive skin autofluorescence (SCOUT). We defined dysglycemia by American Diabetes Association and Endocrine Society criteria and as HbA1c of 5.7% or greater. In Tr2 in an available subset, we performed a repeat OGTT and SCOUT.

PARTICIPANTS: Pregnant American Indian women (n = 244 at Tr1; n = 114 at Tr2) participated in the study.

OUTCOMES: The prevalence of dysglycemia at Tr1 and incidence of GDM at Tr2 were measured.

RESULTS: At Tr1, one woman had overt diabetes; 36 (15%) had impaired glucose tolerance (American Diabetes Association criteria and/or abnormal HbA1c) and 59 (24%) had GDM-Tr1 (Endocrine Society criteria). Overall, 74 (30%) had some form of dysglycemia. Associated factors were body mass index, hypertension, waist/hip circumferences, SCOUT score, fasting insulin, and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance. At Tr2, 114 of the Tr1 cohort underwent a repeat OGTT and SCOUT, and 26 (23%) had GDM. GDM-Tr2 was associated with increased SCOUT scores (P = .029) and Tr1 body mass index, waist/hip circumferences, diastolic blood pressure, fasting insulin, and triglyceride levels. Overall, dysglycemia at Tr1 and/or Tr2 affected 38% of the women.

CONCLUSIONS: Dysglycemia at some point during pregnancy was common among American Indian women. It was associated with features of insulin resistance and may confer long-term health risks for mother and child.