An extended framework for evidential reasoning systems

Based on the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence and G. Yen's (1989), extension of the theory, the authors propose approaches to representing heuristic knowledge by evidential mapping and pooling the mass distribution in a complex frame by partitioning that frame using Shafter's partition technique. The authors have generalized Yen's model from Bayesian probability theory to the D-S theory of evidence. Based on such a generalized model, an extended framework for evidential reasoning systems is briefly specified in which a semi-graph method is used to describe the heuristic knowledge. The advantage of such a method is that it can avoid the complexity of graphs without losing the explicitness of graphs. The extended framework can be widely used to build expert systems

Extending Zipf’s law to n-grams for large corpora

Experiments show that for a large corpus, Zipf’s law does not hold for all rank of words: the frequencies fall below those predicted by Zipf’s law for ranks greater than about 5,000 word types in the English language and about 30,000 word types in the inflected languages Irish and Latin. It also does not hold for syllables or words in the syllable-based languages, Chinese or Vietnamese. However, when single words are combined together with word n-grams in one list and put in rank order, the frequency of tokens in the combined list extends Zipf’s law with a slope close to -1 on a log-log plot in all five languages. Further experiments have demonstrated the validity of this extension of Zipf’s law to n-grams of letters, phonemes or binary bits in English. It is shown theoretically that probability theory
alone can predict this behavior in randomly created n-grams of binary bits.

Psychology Statistics for Dummies

The quick, easy way to master all the statistics you'll ever need The bad news first: if you want a psychology degree you'll need to know statistics. Now for the good news: Psychology Statistics For Dummies. Featuring jargon-free explanations, step-by-step instructions and dozens of real-life examples, Psychology Statistics For Dummies makes the knotty world of statistics a lot less baffling. Rather than padding the text with concepts and procedures irrelevant to the task, the authors focus only on the statistics psychology students need to know. As an alternative to typical, lead-heavy statistics texts or supplements to assigned course reading, this is one book psychology students won't want to be without. Ease into statistics – start out with an introduction to how statistics are used by psychologists, including the types of variables they use and how they measure them Get your feet wet – quickly learn the basics of descriptive statistics, such as central tendency and measures of dispersion, along with common ways of graphically depicting information Meet your new best friend – learn the ins and outs of SPSS, the most popular statistics software package among psychology students, including how to input, manipulate and analyse data Analyse this – get up to speed on statistical analysis core concepts, such as probability and inference, hypothesis testing, distributions, Z-scores and effect sizes Correlate that – get the lowdown on common procedures for defining relationships between variables, including linear regressions, associations between categorical data and more Analyse by inference – master key methods in inferential statistics, including techniques for analysing independent groups designs and repeated-measures research designs Open the book and find: Ways to describe statistical data How to use SPSS statistical software Probability theory and statistical inference Descriptive statistics basics How to test hypotheses Correlations and other relationships between variables Core concepts in statistical analysis for psychology Analysing research designs Learn to: Use SPSS to analyse data Master statistical methods and procedures using psychology-based explanations and examples Create better reports Identify key concepts and pass your course

Semiring induced valuation algebras: Exact and approximate local computation algorithms

Local computation in join trees or acyclic hypertrees has been shown to be linked to a particular algebraic structure, called valuation algebra.There are many models of this algebraic structure ranging from probability theory to numerical analysis, relational databases and various classical and non-classical logics. It turns out that many interesting models of valuation algebras may be derived from semiring valued mappings. In this paper we study how valuation algebras are induced by semirings and how the structure of the valuation algebra is related to the algebraic structure of the semiring. In particular, c-semirings with idempotent multiplication induce idempotent valuation algebras and therefore permit particularly efficient architectures for local computation. Also important are semirings whose multiplicative semigroup is embedded in a union of groups. They induce valuation algebras with a partially defined division. For these valuation algebras, the well-known architectures for Bayesian networks apply. We also extend the general computational framework to allow derivation of bounds and approximations, for when exact computation is not feasible.

Eliciting and estimating valid subjective probabilities: An experimental investigation of the Exchangeability Method.

Using a laboratory experiment, we investigate whether incentive compatibility affects subjective probabilities elicited via the exchangeability method (EM), an elicitation technique consisting of several chained questions. We hypothesize that subjects who are aware of the chaining strategically behave and provide invalid subjective probabilities, while subjects who are not aware of the chaining state their real beliefs and provide valid subjective probabilities. The validity of subjective probabilities is investigated using de Finetti's notion of coherence, under which probability estimates are valid if and only if they obey all axioms of probability theory.
Four experimental treatments are designed and implemented. Subjects are divided into two initial treatment groups: in the first, they are provided with real monetary incentives, and in the second, they are not. Each group is further sub-divided into two treatment groups, in the first, the chained structure of the experimental design is made clear to the subjects, while, in the second, the chained structure is hidden by randomizing the elicitation questions.
Our results suggest that subjects provided with monetary incentives and randomized questions provide valid subjective probabilities because they are not aware of the chaining which undermines the incentive compatibility of the exchangeability method.

A DFT study of the chain growth probability in Fischer-Tropsch synthesis

The chain growth probability (alpha value) is one of the most significant parameters in Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis. To gain insight into the chain growth probability, we systematically studied the hydrogenation and C-C coupling reactions with different chain lengths on the stepped Co(0001) surface using density functional theory calculations. Our findings elucidate the relationship between the barriers of these elementary reactions and the chain length. Moreover, we derived a general expression of the chain growth probability and investigated the behavior of the alpha value observed experimentally. The high methane yield results from the lower chain growth rate for C-1 + C-1 coupling compared with the other coupling reactions. After C-1, the deviation of product distribution in FT synthesis from the Anderson-Schulz-Flory distribution is due to the chain length-dependent paraffin/olefin ratio. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Theory of pixel lensing toward M31. II. The velocity anisotropy and flattening of the MACHO distribution

The POINT-AGAPE collaboration is currently searching for massive compact halo objects (MACHOs) toward the Andromeda galaxy (M31). The survey aims to exploit the high inclination of the M31 disk, which causes an asymmetry in the spatial distribution of M31 MACHOs. Here, we investigate the effects of halo velocity anisotropy and flattening on the asymmetry signal using simple halo models. For a spherically symmetric and isotropic halo, we find that the underlying pixel lensing rate in far-disk M31 MACHOs is more than 5 times the rate of near-disk events. We find that the asymmetry is further increased by about 30% if the MACHOs occupy radial orbits rather than tangential orbits, but it is substantially reduced if the MACHOs lie in a flattened halo. However, even for halos with a minor- to major-axis ratio of q = 0.3, the number of M31 MACHOs in the far side outnumber those in the near side by a factor of similar to2. There is also a distance asymmetry, in that the events on the far side are typically farther from the major axis. We show that, if this positional information is exploited in addition to number counts, then the number of candidate events required to confirm asymmetry for a range of flattened and anisotropic halo models is achievable, even with significant contamination by variable stars and foreground microlensing events. For pixel lensing surveys that probe a representative portion of the M31 disk, a sample of around 50 candidates is likely to be sufficient to detect asymmetry within spherical halos, even if half the sample is contaminated, or to detect asymmetry in halos as flat as q = 0.3, provided less than a third of the sample comprises contaminants. We also argue that, provided its mass-to-light ratio is less than 100, the recently observed stellar stream around M31 is not problematic for the detection of asymmetry.

Escape times for rigid Brownian rotators in a bistable potential from the time evolution of the Green function and the characteristic time of the probability evolution

The greatest relaxation time for an assembly of three- dimensional rigid rotators in an axially symmetric bistable potential is obtained exactly in terms of continued fractions as a sum of the zero frequency decay functions (averages of the Legendre polynomials) of the system. This is accomplished by studying the entire time evolution of the Green function (transition probability) by expanding the time dependent distribution as a Fourier series and proceeding to the zero frequency limit of the Laplace transform of that distribution. The procedure is entirely analogous to the calculation of the characteristic time of the probability evolution (the integral of the configuration space probability density function with respect to the position co-ordinate) for a particle undergoing translational diffusion in a potential; a concept originally used by Malakhov and Pankratov (Physica A 229 (1996) 109). This procedure allowed them to obtain exact solutions of the Kramers one-dimensional translational escape rate problem for piecewise parabolic potentials. The solution was accomplished by posing the problem in terms of the appropriate Sturm-Liouville equation which could be solved in terms of the parabolic cylinder functions. The method (as applied to rotational problems and posed in terms of recurrence relations for the decay functions, i.e., the Brinkman approach c.f. Blomberg, Physica A 86 (1977) 49, as opposed to the Sturm-Liouville one) demonstrates clearly that the greatest relaxation time unlike the integral relaxation time which is governed by a single decay function (albeit coupled to all the others in non-linear fashion via the underlying recurrence relation) is governed by a sum of decay functions. The method is easily generalized to multidimensional state spaces by matrix continued fraction methods allowing one to treat non-axially symmetric potentials, where the distribution function is governed by two state variables. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Feasibility of online collaborative voltage stability control of power systems

This paper presents the results of feasibility study of a novel concept of power system on-line collaborative voltage stability control. The proposal of the on-line collaboration between power system controllers is to enhance their overall performance and efficiency to cope with the increasing operational uncertainty of modern power systems. In the paper, the framework of proposed on-line collaborative voltage stability control is firstly presented, which is based on the deployment of multi-agent systems and real-time communication for on-line collaborative control. Then two of the most important issues in implementing the proposed on-line collaborative voltage stability control are addressed: (1) Error-tolerant communication protocol for fast information exchange among multiple intelligent agents; (2) Deployment of multi-agent systems by using graph theory to implement power system post-emergency control. In the paper, the proposed on-line collaborative voltage stability control is tested in the example 10-machine 39-node New England power system. Results of feasibility study from simulation are given considering the low-probability power system cascading faults.

Angular distribution for the elastic scattering of electrons from Ar+(3s^2 3p^5 ^2P) above the first inelastic threshold

The measured angular differential cross section (DCS) for the elastic scattering of electrons from Ar+(3s2 3p5 2P) at the collision energy of 16 eV is presented. By solving the Hartree-Fock equations, we calculate the corresponding theoretical DCS including the coupling between the orbital angular momenta and spin of the incident electron and those of the target ion and also relaxation effects. Since the collision energy is above one inelastic threshold for the transition 3s2 3p5 2P–3s 3p6 2S, we consider the effects on the DCS of inelastic absorption processes and elastic resonances. The measurements deviate significantly from the Rutherford cross section over the full angular range observed, especially in the region of a deep minimum centered at approximately 75°. Our theory and an uncoupled, unrelaxed method using a local, spherically symmetric potential by Manson [Phys. Rev. 182, 97 (1969)] both reproduce the overall shape of the measured DCS, although the coupled Hartree-Fock approach describes the depth of the minimum more accurately. The minimum is shallower in the present theory owing to our lower average value for the d-wave non-Coulomb phase shift s2, which is due to the high sensitivity of s2 to the different scattering potentials used in the two models. The present measurements and calculations therefore show the importance of including coupling and relaxation effects when accurately modeling electron-ion collisions. The phase shifts obtained by fitting to the measurements are compared with the values of Manson and the present method.

Analysis procedure for calculation of electron energy distribution functions from incoherent Thomson scattering spectra

Incoherent Thomson scattering (ITS) provides a nonintrusive diagnostic for the determination of one-dimensional (1D) electron velocity distribution in plasmas. When the ITS spectrum is Gaussian its interpretation as a three-dimensional (3D) Maxwellian velocity distribution is straightforward. For more complex ITS line shapes derivation of the corresponding 3D velocity distribution and electron energy probability distribution function is more difficult. This article reviews current techniques and proposes an approach to making the transformation between a 1D velocity distribution and the corresponding 3D energy distribution. Previous approaches have either transformed the ITS spectra directly from a 1D distribution to a 3D or fitted two Gaussians assuming a Maxwellian or bi-Maxwellian distribution. Here, the measured ITS spectrum transformed into a 1D velocity distribution and the probability of finding a particle with speed within 0 and given value v is calculated. The differentiation of this probability function is shown to be the normalized electron velocity distribution function. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

Experimenting with the Coxian Phase-Type Distribution to Uncover Suitable Fits

In the past few decades, Coxian phase-type distributions have become increasingly more popular as a means of representing survival times. In healthcare, they are considered suitable for modelling the length of stay of patients in hospital and more recently for modelling the patient waiting times in Accident and Emergency Departments. The Coxian phase-type distribution has not only been shown to provide a good representation of real survival data, but its interpretation seems reasonably initiative to the medical experts. The drawback, however, is fitting the distribution to the data. There have been many attempts at accurately estimating the Coxian phase-type parameters. This paper wishes to examine the most promising of the approaches reported in the literature to determine the most accurate. Three performance measures are introduced to assess the fitting process of the algorithms along with the likelihood values and AIC to examine the goodness of fit and complexity of the model. Previous research suggests that the fitting process is strongly influenced by the initial parameter estimates and the data itself being quite variable. To overcome this, one experiment in this research paper will use the same initial parameter values for each estimation and perform the fits on the data simulated from a Coxian phase-type distribution with known parameters.

Single-phase fluid flow distribution and heat transfer in microstructured reactors

Single-phase microreactors and micro-heat-exchangers have been widely used in industrial and scientific applications over the last decade. In several cases, operation of microreactors has shown that their expected efficiency cannot be reached either due to non-uniform distribution of reactants between different channels or due to flow maldistribution between individual microreactors working in parallel. The latter problem can result in substantial temperature deviations between different microreactors resulting in thermal run away which could arise from an exothermicreaction. Thus advances in the understanding of heat transfer and fluid flow distribution continue to be crucial in achieving improved performance, efficiency and safety in microstructured reactors used for different applications. This paper presents a review of the experimental and numerical results on fluid flow distribution, heat transfer and combination thereof, available in the open literature. Heat transfer in microchannels can be suitably described by standard theory and correlations, but scaling effects (entrance effects, conjugate heat transfer, viscous heating, and temperature-dependent properties) have often to be accounted for in microsystems. Experiments with single channels are in good agreement with predictions from the published correlations. The accuracy of multichannel experiments is lower due to flow maldistribution. Special attention is devoted to theoretical and experimental studies on the effect of a flow maldistribution on the thermal and conversion response of catalytic microreactors. There view concludes with a set of design recommendations aimed at improving the reactor performance. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the Distribution of Signal Phase in Body Area Networks

In this letter, we investigate the distribution of the phase component of the complex received signal observed in practical experiments using body area networks. Two phase distributions, the recently proposed kappa-mu and eta-mu probability densities, which together encompass the most widely used fading models, namely Semi-Gaussian, Rayleigh, Hoyt, Rice, and Nakagami-m, have been compared with measurement data. The kappa-mu distribution has been found to provide the best fit over a range of on-body links, while the user was mobile. The experiments were carried out in two dissimilar indoor environments at opposite ends of the multipath spectrum. It has also been found that the uniform phase distribution has not arisen in anyone of the experiments.

A review of the equations used to predict the velocity distribution within a ship’s propeller jet

Predicting the velocity within the ship’s propeller jet is the initial step to investigate the scouring made by the propeller jet. Albertson et al. (1950) suggested the investigation of a submerged jet can be undertaken through observation of the plain water jet from an orifice. The plain water jet investigation of Albertson et al. (1950) was based on the axial momentum theory. This has been the basis of all subsequent work with propeller jets. In reality, the velocity characteristic of a ship’s propeller jet is more complicated than a plain water jet. Fuehrer and Römisch (1977), Blaauw and van de Kaa (1978), Berger et al. (1981), Verhey (1983) and Hamill (1987) have carried out investigations using physical model. This paper reviews the state-of-art of the equations used to predict the time-averaged axial, tangential and radial components of velocity within the zone of flow establishment and the zone of established flow of a ship’s propeller jet.