Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A gain-of-function mutation in the HIF2A gene in familial erythrocytosis

Hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) a, which has three isoforms, is central to the continuous balancing of the supply and demand of oxygen throughout the body. HIF-a is a transcription factor that modulates a wide range of processes, including erythropoiesis, angiogenesis, and cellular metabolism. We describe a family with erythrocytosis and a mutation in the HIF2A gene, which encodes the HIF-2a protein. Our functional studies indicate that this mutation leads to stabilization of the HIF-2a protein and suggest that wild-type HIF-2a regulates erythropoietin production in adults.

Dynamic pricing for used products in remanufacturing with back orders(ABS 3* Journal, Accepted with Revision on 2nd December 2011).

In remanufacturing, the supply of used products and the demand for remanufactured products are usually mismatched because of the great uncertainties on both sides. In this paper, we propose a dynamic pricing policy to balance this uncertain supply and demand. Specifically, we study a remanufacturer’s problem of pricing a single class of cores with random price-dependent returns and random demand for the remanufactured products with backlogs. We model this pricing task as a continuous-time Markov decision process, which addresses both the finite and infinite horizon problems, and provide managerial insights by analyzing the structural properties of the optimal policy. We then use several computational examples to illustrate the impacts of particular system parameters on pricing policy.

A Eulogy to Seed Sharing: Manufacturing Genuine Scarcity

Seeds are traditionally considered as common or even public goods, their traits as ‘products of nature’. They are also essential to biodiversity, food security and food sovereignty. However, a suite of techno-legal interventions has legislated the enclosure of seeds: seed patents, plant variety protections, and stewardship agreements. These instruments create and protect private proprietary interests over plant material and point to the interface between seeds, capitalism, and law. In the following article, we consider the latest innovations, the bulk of which have been directed toward genetically disabling the reproductive capacities of seeds (terminator technology) or tying these capacities to outputs (‘round-up necessary’). In both instances, scarcity moves from artificial to real.
For the agro-industrial complex, the innovations are perfectly rational as they can simultaneously control supply and demand. For those outside the complex, however, the consequences are potentially ruinous. The practices of seed-saving and exchange no longer are feasible, even covertly. Contemporary genetic controls have upped the ante, by either disabling the reproductive capacity of seeds or, through cross-pollination and outcrossing, facilitating the autonomous spread of the genetic modifications that are importantly still traceable, identifiable and therefore capable of legal protection. In both instances, genuine scarcity becomes the new standard as private interests dominate what was a public sphere.

Gatekeepers to the profession: recruitment to initial teacher education in the United Kingdom

We develop a framing for research on the relationship between context, process and outcomes in recruitment to the teaching profession. We do this through a ‘home international’ comparison of policies, outcomes and recruitment processes in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. There is plenty of movement between these countries in the graduate labour market, but the contexts for teacher supply and demand vary in terms of: (i) scale, (ii) excess supply or demand, (iii) reliance of policy on market forces or bureaucracy and (iv) beliefs of policymakers about whether teaching is a craft or a profession. Recent changes in England and Wales have highlighted the importance of recruitment to initial teacher education (ITE as a policy issue whilst also creating further points of comparison which are useful for research. We draw on trends in data on recruitment to teaching and in-depth interviews with gatekeepers to the profession in each country.

Enhanced sensitivity of protein kinase B/Akt to insulin in hypoxia is independent of HIF1 alpha and promotes cell viability

Maintenance of oxygen homeostasis is a key requirement to ensure normal mammalian cell growth and differentiation. Hypoxia arises when oxygen demand exceeds supply, and is a feature of multiple human diseases including stroke, cancer and renal fibrosis. We have investigated the effect of hypoxia on kidney cells, and observed that insulin-induced cell viability is increased in hypoxia. We have characterized the role of protein kinase B (PKB/ Akt) in these cells as a potential mediator of this effect. PKB/Akt activity was increased by low oxygen concentrations in kidney cells, and insulin-stimulated activation of PKB/Akt was stronger, more rapid and more sustained in hypoxia. Reduction of HIF1 alpha levels using antimycin-A or siRNA targeting HlF1 alpha did not affect PKB/Akt activation in hypoxia. Pharmacologic stabilization of HIF1 alpha independent of hypoxia did not increase insulin-stimulated PKB/Akt activation. Although increased insulin-stimulated cell viability was observed in hypoxia, no differences in the degree of insulin-stimulated glucose uptake were observed in L6 muscle cells in hypoxia compared to normoxia. Thus, PKB/Akt may regulate specific cellular responses to growth factors such as insulin under adverse conditions such as hypoxia. alpha 2007 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Economic evaluation and its place in dentistry

Objective: This review intends to examine current research surrounding economic assessment in the delivery of dental care. Economic evaluation is an acknowledged method of analysing dental care systems by means of efficiency, effectiveness, efficacy and availability. Though this is a widely used method in medicine, it is underappreciated in dentistry. As the delivery of health care changes there has been recent demand by the public, the profession, and those funding dental treatment to investigate current practices regarding programs themselves and resource allocation.
Methods: A meta-analysis was conducted regarding health economics. The initial search was carried out using Pubmed, Google Scholar, Science Direct, and The Cochrane Library with search terms “health AND economics AND dentistry”. A secondary search was conducted with the terms “heath care AND dentistry AND”. The third part of the entry was changed to address the aims and included the following terms: “cost benefit analysis”, “efficiency criteria”, “supply & demand”, “cost-effectiveness”, “cost minimisation”, “cost utility”, “resource allocation”, “QALY”, and “delivery and economics”. Limits were applied to all searches to only include papers published in English within the last eight years.
Results: Preliminary results demonstrated a limited number of economic evaluations conducted in dentistry. Those that were carried out were mainly confined to the United Kingdom. Furthermore analysis was mainly restricted to restorative dentistry, followed by orthodontics, and maxillofacial surgery, thereby demonstrating a need for investigation in all fields of dentistry.
Conclusion: Health economics has been overlooked in the past regarding delivery of dental care and resource allocation. Economic appraisal is a crucial part of generating an effective and efficient dental care system. It is becoming increasingly evident that there is a need for economic evaluation in all dental fields.

Exploring inequities in child welfare and child protection services: Explaining the ‘inverse intervention law’

Attempts to record, understand and respond to variations in child welfare and protection reporting, service patterns and outcomes are international, numerous and longstanding. Reframing such variations as an issue of inequity between children and between families opens the way to a new approach to explaining the profound difference in intervention rates between and within countries and administrative districts. Recent accounts of variation have frequently been based on the idea that there is a binary division between bias and risk (or need). Here we propose seeing supply (bias) and demand (risk) factors as two aspects of a single system, both framed, in part, by social structures. A recent finding from a study of intervention rates in England, the 'inverse intervention law', is used to illustrate the complex ways in which a range of factors interact to produce intervention rates. In turn, this analysis raises profound moral, policy, practice and research questions about current child welfare and child protection services.

Challenging assumptions of future coastal habitat development around the UK

One habitat management requirement forced by 21st century relative sea-level rise (RSLR), will be the need to re-comprehend the dimensions of long-term transgressive behaviour of coastal systems being forced by such RSLR. Fresh approaches to the conceptual modelling and subsequent implementation of new coastal and peri-marine habitats will be required. There is concern that existing approaches to forecasting coastal systems development (and by implication their associated scarce coastal habitats) over the next century depend on a certain premise of orderly spatial succession of habitats. This assumption is shown to be questionable given the possible future rates of RSLR, magnitude of shoreline retreat and the lack of coastal sediment to maintain the protective morphologies to low-energy coastal habitats. Of these issues, sediment deficiency is regarded as one of the major problem for future habitat development. Examples of contemporary behaviour of UK coasts show evidence of coastal sediment starvation resulting from relatively stable RSLR, anthropogenic sealing of coastal sources, and intercepted coastal sediment pathways, which together force segmentation of coastal systems. From these examples key principles are deduced which may prejudice the existence of future habitats: accelerated future sediment demand due to RSLR may not be met by supply and, if short- to medium-term hold-the-line policies predominate, long-term strategies for managed realignment and habitat enhancement may prove impossible goals. Methods of contemporary sediment husbandry may help sustain some habitats in place but otherwise, instead of integrated coastal organization, managers may need to consider coastal breakdown, segmentation and habitat reduction as the basis of 21st century coastal evolution and planning.

'A Job in Politics is not for Woman': Analysing Barriers to Women's Political Representation in CEE

This article discusses women’s political representation in Central and Eastern Europe in the fifteen years after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the adoption of liberal democratic political systems in the region. It highlights the deepseated gender stereotypes that define women primarily as wives and mothers, with electoral politics seen as an appropriate activity for men, but less so for women. The article explores the ways in which conservative attitudes on gender roles hinders the supply of, and demand for, women in the politics of Central and Eastern Europe. It also discusses the manner in which the internalisation of traditional gender norms affects women’s parliamentary behaviour, as few champion women’s rights in the legislatures of the region. The article also finds that links between women MPs and women’s organisations are weak and fragmented, making coalition-building around agendas for women’s rights problematic.

Power-law behaviour, heterogeneity, and trend chasing

Long-range dependence in volatility is one of the most prominent examples in financial market research involving universal power laws. Its characterization has recently spurred attempts to provide some explanations of the underlying mechanism. This paper contributes to this recent line of research by analyzing a simple market fraction asset pricing model with two types of traders---fundamentalists who trade on the price deviation from estimated fundamental value and trend followers whose conditional mean and variance of the trend are updated through a geometric learning process. Our analysis shows that agent heterogeneity, risk-adjusted trend chasing through the geometric learning process, and the interplay of noisy fundamental and demand processes and the underlying deterministic dynamics can be the source of power-law distributed fluctuations. In particular, the noisy demand plays an important role in the generation of insignificant autocorrelations (ACs) on returns, while the significant decaying AC patterns of the absolute returns and squared returns are more influenced by the noisy fundamental process. A statistical analysis based on Monte Carlo simulations is conducted to characterize the decay rate. Realistic estimates of the power-law decay indices and the (FI)GARCH parameters are presented.