Just how controversial is evidential holism?

This paper is an examination of evidential holism, a prominent position in epistemology and the philosophy of science which claims that experiments only ever confirm or refute entire theories. The position is historically associated with W.V. Quine, and it is at once both popular and notorious, as well as being largely under-described. But even though there’s no univocal statement of what holism is or what it does, philosophers have nevertheless made substantial assumptions about its content and its truth. Moreover they have drawn controversial and important conclusions from these assumptions. In this paper I distinguish three types of evidential holism and argue that the most oft-cited and controversial thesis is entirely unmotivated. The other two theses are much overlooked, but are well-motivated and free from controversial implications.

Restorative justice conferencing for reducing recidivism in young offenders (aged 7 to 21)

Background
Restorative justice is “a process whereby parties with a stake in a specific offence resolve collectively how to deal with the aftermath of the offence and its implications for the future” (Marshall 2003). Despite the increasing use of restorative justice programmes as an alternative to court proceedings, no systematic review has been undertaken of the available evidence on the effectiveness of these programmes with young offenders. Recidivism in young offenders is a particularly worrying problem, as recent surveys have indicated
the frequency of re-offences for young offenders has ranged from 40.2% in 2000 to 37.8% in 2007 (Ministry of Justice 2009)

Objectives
To evaluate the effects of restorative justice conferencing programmes for reducing recidivism in young offenders.

Search methods
We searched the following databases up to May 2012: CENTRAL, 2012 Issue 5, MEDLINE (1978 to current), Bibliography of Nordic Criminology (1999 to current), Index to Theses (1716 to current), PsycINFO (1887 to current), Social Sciences Citation Index (1970 to current), Sociological Abstracts (1952 to current), Social Care Online (1985 to current), Restorative Justice Online (1975 to current), Scopus (1823 to current), Science Direct (1823 to current), LILACS (1982 to current), ERIC (1966 to current), Restorative Justice Online (4May 2012),WorldCat (9May 2012), ClinicalTrials.gov (19May 2012) and ICTRP (19May 2012). ASSIA,National Criminal Justice Reference Service and Social Services Abstracts were searched up to May 2011. Relevant bibliographies, conference programmes and journals were also searched.

Selection criteria
Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or quasi-RCTs of restorative justice conferencing versus management as usual, in young offenders.

Data collection and analysis
Two authors independently assessed the risk of bias of included trials and extracted the data. Where necessary, original investigators were contacted to obtain missing information.

Main results
Four trials including a total of 1447 young offenders were included in the review. Results failed to find a significant effect for restorative justice conferencing over normal court procedures for any of the main analyses, including number re-arrested (odds ratio (OR) 1.00, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59 to 1.71; P = 0.99), monthly rate of reoffending (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.06, 95% CI -0.28 to 0.16; P = 0.61), young person’s remorse following conference (OR 1.73, 95% CI 0.97 to 3.10; P = 0.06), young person’s recognition of wrongdoing following conference (OR 1.97, 95% CI 0.81 to 4.80; P = 0.14), young person’s self-perception following conference (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.63; P = 0.85), young person’s satisfaction following conference (OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.04 to 4.07; P = 0.45) and victim’s satisfaction following conference (OR 4.05, 95%CI 0.56 to 29.04; P = 0.16). A small number of sensitivity analyses did indicate significant effects, although all are to be interpreted with caution.

Authors’ conclusions
There is currently a lack of high quality evidence regarding the effectiveness of restorative justice conferencing for young offenders. Caution is urged in interpreting the results of this review considering the small number of included studies, subsequent low power and high risk of bias. The effects may potentially be more evident for victims than offenders. The need for further research in this area is highlighted.

Optical Cooling Using the Dipole Force

The term `laser cooling' is applied to the use of optical means to cool the motional energies of either atoms and molecules, or micromirrors. In the literature, these two strands are kept largely separate; both, however suffer from severe limitations. Laser cooling of atoms and molecules largely relies on the internal level structure of the species being cooled. As a result, only a small number of elements and a tiny number of molecules can be cooled this way. In the case of micromirrors, the problem lies in the engineering of micromirrors that need to satisfy a large number of constraints---these include a high mechanical Q-factor, high reflectivity and very good optical quality, weak coupling to the substrate, etc.---in order to enable efficient cooling. During the course of this thesis, I will draw these two sides of laser cooling closer together by means of a single, generically applicable scattering theory that can be used to explain the interaction between light and matter at a very general level. I use this `transfer matrix' formalism to explore the use of the retarded dipole--dipole interaction as a means of both enhancing the efficiency of micromirror cooling systems and rendering the laser cooling of atoms and molecules less species selective. In particular, I identify the `external cavity cooling' mechanism, whereby the use of an optical memory in the form of a resonant element (such as a cavity), outside which the object to be cooled sits, can potentially lead to the construction of fully integrated optomechanical systems and even two-dimensional arrays of translationally cold atoms, molecules or even micromirrors.

Environmental tobacco smoke exposure and eye disease

Aim: To undertake a systematic review of the literature on the effect of environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) and eye disease. Methods: Medline (1950-January Week 2 2007), EMBASE (1980 to 2007 Week 07), SCOPUS and Science Direct were searched on ETS exposure and eye disease using various combinations of the following terms: passive smoking, environmental tobacco smoke, sidestream smoke, involuntary smoking, secondhand smoke; with eye, conjunctiva, sclera, episclera, cornea, lens, iris, retina, choroid, uvea, optic nerve, uveitis, iritis, blindness, visual loss, cataract, thyroid eye disease, conjunctivitis, age-related macular degeneration, dry eye, tears. The above terms were also used to search abstracts published on The Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology Annual Meeting abstracts, from 1995 to 2006, and the grey literature, including PhD and MSc theses/dissertations. A search was further conducted specifically on eye diseases where active smoking has been proposed to be a risk factor, including age-related macular degeneration, Graves ophthalmology, glaucoma, uveitis, refractive errors, strabismus, tobacco-alcohol amblyopia, non-arteritic ischaemic optic neuropathy, Leber optic neuropathy and diabetic retinopathy. Given the scarce number of studies found through the above search, all articles found on ETS and eye disease were included in this review. Results: Seven studies evaluated the possible relationship between ETS and an eye disease. These studies referred to refractive errors in children (n = 2), cataract (n = 1), age-related macular degeneration (n = 3) and Grave ophthalmopathy (n = 1). The data available were insufficient to establish conclusive relationships between ETS and these eye diseases. Conclusion: Very scarce data exist in the literature on the effect of ETS on diseases of the eye. It seems appropriate that ETS should be included in future studies addressing the effect of smoking on eye disease.

Behavioural and cognitive-behavioural group-based parenting programmes for early-onset conduct problems in children aged 3 to 12 years.

Early-onset child conduct problems are common and costly. A large number of studies and some previous reviews have focused on behavioural and cognitive-behavioural group-based parenting interventions, but methodological limitations are commonplace and evidence for the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of these programmes has been unclear. To assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of behavioural and cognitive-behavioural group-based parenting programmes for improving child conduct problems, parental mental health and parenting skills. We searched the following databases between 23 and 31 January 2011: CENTRAL (2011, Issue 1), MEDLINE (1950 to current), EMBASE (1980 to current), CINAHL (1982 to current), PsycINFO (1872 to current), Social Science Citation Index (1956 to current), ASSIA (1987 to current), ERIC (1966 to current), Sociological Abstracts (1963 to current), Academic Search Premier (1970 to current), Econlit (1969 to current), PEDE (1980 to current), Dissertations and Theses Abstracts (1980 to present), NHS EED (searched 31 January 2011), HEED (searched 31 January 2011), DARE (searched 31 January 2011), HTA (searched 31 January 2011), mRCT (searched 29 January 2011). We searched the following parent training websites on 31 January 2011: Triple P Library, Incredible Years Library and Parent Management Training. We also searched the reference lists of studies and reviews. We included studies if: (1) they involved randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or quasi-randomised controlled trials of behavioural and cognitive-behavioural group-based parenting interventions for parents of children aged 3 to 12 years with conduct problems, and (2) incorporated an intervention group versus a waiting list, no treatment or standard treatment control group. We only included studies that used at least one standardised instrument to measure child conduct problems. Two authors independently assessed the risk of bias in the trials and the methodological quality of health economic studies. Two authors also independently extracted data. We contacted study authors for additional information. This review includes 13 trials (10 RCTs and three quasi-randomised trials), as well as two economic evaluations based on two of the trials. Overall, there were 1078 participants (646 in the intervention group; 432 in the control group). The results indicate that parent training produced a statistically significant reduction in child conduct problems, whether assessed by parents (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.53; 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.72 to -0.34) or independently assessed (SMD -0.44; 95% CI -0.77 to -0.11). The intervention led to statistically significant improvements in parental mental health (SMD -0.36; 95% CI -0.52 to -0.20) and positive parenting skills, based on both parent reports (SMD -0.53; 95% CI -0.90 to -0.16) and independent reports (SMD -0.47; 95% CI -0.65 to -0.29). Parent training also produced a statistically significant reduction in negative or harsh parenting practices according to both parent reports (SMD -0.77; 95% CI -0.96 to -0.59) and independent assessments (SMD -0.42; 95% CI -0.67 to -0.16). Moreover, the intervention demonstrated evidence of cost-effectiveness. When compared to a waiting list control group, there was a cost of approximately $2500 (GBP 1712; EUR 2217) per family to bring the average child with clinical levels of conduct problems into the non-clinical range. These costs of programme delivery are modest when compared with the long-term health, social, educational and legal costs associated with childhood conduct problems. Behavioural and cognitive-behavioural group-based parenting interventions are effective and cost-effective for improving child conduct problems, parental mental health and parenting skills in the short term. The cost of programme delivery was modest when compared with the long-term health, social, educational and legal costs associated with childhood conduct problems. Further research is needed on the long-term assessment of outcomes.

Modelling trajectories through the educational system in North West England

The main aim of this paper is to identify those school-level and locality-level factors that significantly affect each of the three stages in a young adult's educational trajectory in North West England: GCSE results, track taken at age 16 and 'A'-level scores. By applying three-level models to data collected as part of the EFFNATIS project, we find no evidence of any locality-level effects. Overall, none of the explanatory variables conventionally considered to affect educational attainment had a consistent effect across all three stages. Rather, each explanatory variable had a contingent effect at specific points within the overall trajectory of educational outcomes.

Changing attitudes to gender roles: A longitudinal analysis of ordinal response data from the British household panel study

This article examines changes in attitudes to gender roles in contemporary Britain by using a first-order Markov process in which cumulative transition probabilities are logistic functions of a set of personal and socioeconomic characteristics of respondents. The data are taken from the British Household Panel Study (BHPS). The attitudinal responses examined take the form of ordinal responses concerning gender roles in 1991 and 2003. The likelihood function is partitioned to make possible the use of existing software for estimating model parameters. For the BHPS data, it was found that, depending on the value of the response in 1991, a variety of factors were important determinants of attitudes to gender roles by 2003.

Analysing partial ranks by using smoothed paired comparison methods:An investigation of value orientation in Europe

This paper introduces the paired comparison model as a suitable approach for the analysis of partially ranked data. For example, the Inglehart index, collected in international social surveys to examine shifts in post-materialistic values, generates such data on a set of attitude items. However, current analysis methods have failed to account for the complex shifts in individual item values, or to incorporate subject covariates. The paired comparison model is thus developed to allow for covariate subject effects at the individual level, and a reparameterization allows the inclusion of smooth non-linear effects of continuous covariates. The Inglehart index collected in the 1993 International Social Science Programme survey is analysed, and complex non-linear changes of item values with age, level of education and religion are identified. The model proposed provides a powerful tool for social scientists.