The Last Minutes of Oxygen Shell Burning in a Massive Star

We present the first 3D simulation of the last minutes of oxygen shell burning in an 18 solar mass supernova progenitor up to the onset of core collapse. A moving inner boundary is used to accurately model the contraction of the silicon and iron core according to a 1D stellar evolution model with a self-consistent treatment of core deleptonization and nuclear quasi-equilibrium. The simulation covers the full solid angle to allow the emergence of large-scale convective modes. Due to core contraction and the concomitant acceleration of nuclear burning, the convective Mach number increases to ~0.1 at collapse, and an l=2 mode emerges shortly before the end of the simulation. Aside from a growth of the oxygen shell from 0.51 to 0.56 solar masses due to entrainment from the carbon shell, the convective flow is reasonably well described by mixing length theory, and the dominant scales are compatible with estimates from linear stability analysis. We deduce that artificial changes in the physics, such as accelerated core contraction, can have precarious consequences for the state of convection at collapse. We argue that scaling laws for the convective velocities and eddy sizes furnish good estimates for the state of shell convection at collapse and develop a simple analytic theory for the impact of convective seed perturbations on shock revival in the ensuing supernova. We predict a reduction of the critical luminosity for explosion by 12--24% due to seed asphericities for our 3D progenitor model relative to the case without large seed perturbations.

Length of Stay-Based Patient Flow Models: Recent Developments and Future Directions

Modelling patient flow in health care systems is vital in understanding the system activity and may therefore prove to be useful in improving their functionality. An extensively used measure is the average length of stay which, although easy to calculate and quantify, is not considered appropriate when the distribution is very long-tailed. In fact, simple deterministic models are generally considered inadequate because of the necessity for models to reflect the complex, variable, dynamic and multidimensional nature of the systems. This paper focuses on modelling length of stay and flow of patients. An overview of such modelling techniques is provided, with particular attention to their impact and suitability in managing a hospital service.

Addressing Bed Costs for the Elderly: A New Methodology for Modelling Patient Outcomes and Length of Stay

The proportion of elderly in the population has dramatically increased and will continue to do so for at least the next 50 years. Medical resources throughout the world are feeling the added strain of the increasing proportion of elderly in the population. The effective care of elderly patients in hospitals may be enhanced by accurately modelling the length of stay of the patients in hospital and the associated costs involved. This paper examines previously developed models for patient length of stay in hospital and describes the recently developed conditional phase-type distribution (C-Ph) to model patient duration of stay in relation to explanatory patient variables. The Clinics data set was used to demonstrate the C-Ph methodology. The resulting model highlighted a strong relationship between Barthel grade, patient outcome and length of stay showing various groups of patient behaviour. The patients who stay in hospital for a very long time are usually those that consume the largest amount of hospital resources. These have been identified as the patients whose resulting outcome is transfer. Overall, the majority of transfer patients spend a considerably longer period of time in hospital compared to patients who die or are discharged home. The C-Ph model has the potential for considering costs where different costs are attached to the various phases or subgroups of patients and the anticipated cost of care estimated in advance. It is hoped that such a method will lead to the successful identification of the most cost effective case-mix management of the hospital ward.

Strong configuration mixing among the fine-structure levels of Cl+

A large-scale configuration interaction (Cl) calculation using Program CIV3 of Hibbert is performed for the lowest 62 fine- structure levels of the singly charged chlorine ion. Our calculated energy levels agree very well with most of the NIST results and confirm the identification of the lowest P-1(o) as actually 3s(2)3p(3)(D-2(o))3d P-1(o) rather than the generally employed 3s3p(5) P-1(o) in measurements and calculations. Discrepancies in the energy positions of some symmetries are found and discussed. Some large oscillator strengths for allowed and intercombination transitions in both length and velocity gauges are presented. Their close agreement gives credence to the accuracy of our CI wavefunctions.

Turbulent diffusion and mixing in interstellar dark clouds with adsorption onto grains

This paper reports the results of models of dark cloud chemistry incorporating a depth dependent density distribution with diffusive mixing and adsorption onto grains. The model is based on the approach taken by Xie et al. (1995), with the addition of grain accretion effects. Without diffusion, the central regions of the cloud freeze out in less than 10(7) years. Freeze-out time is dependent on density, so the diffuse outer region of the cloud remains abundant in gas for about an order of magnitude longer. We find that fairly small amounts of diffusive mixing can delay freeze-out at the centre of the model cloud for a time up to an order of magnitude greater than without diffusion, due to material diffusing inward from the edges of the cloud. The gas-phase lifetime of the cloud core can thus be increased by up to an order of magnitude or more by this process. We have run three different grain models with various diffusion coefficients to investigate the effects of changing the sticking parameters.

Hybridization of a class of "second order" models of traffic flow

Despite the simultaneous progress of traffic modelling both on the macroscopic and microscopic front, recent works [E. Bourrel, J.B. Lessort, Mixing micro and macro representation of traffic flow: a hybrid model based on the LWR theory, Transport. Res. Rec. 1852 (2003) 193–200; D. Helbing, M. Treiber, Critical discussion of “synchronized flow”, Coop. Transport. Dyn. 1 (2002) 2.1–2.24; A. Hennecke, M. Treiber, D. Helbing, Macroscopic simulations of open systems and micro–macro link, in: D. Helbing, H.J. Herrmann, M. Schreckenberg, D.E. Wolf (Eds.), Traffic and Granular Flow ’99, Springer, Berlin, 2000, pp. 383–388] highlighted that one of the most promising way to simulate efficiently traffic flow on large road networks is a clever combination of both traffic representations: the hybrid modelling. Our focus in this paper is to propose two hybrid models for which the macroscopic (resp. mesoscopic) part is based on a class of second order model [A. Aw, M. Rascle, Resurection of second order models of traffic flow?, SIAM J. Appl. Math. 60 (2000) 916–938] whereas the microscopic part is a Follow-the Leader type model [D.C. Gazis, R. Herman, R.W. Rothery, Nonlinear follow-the-leader models of traffic flow, Oper. Res. 9 (1961) 545–567; R. Herman, I. Prigogine, Kinetic Theory of Vehicular Traffic, American Elsevier, New York, 1971]. For the first hybrid model, we define precisely the translation of boundary conditions at interfaces and for the second one we explain the synchronization processes. Furthermore, through some numerical simulations we show that the waves propagation is not disturbed and the mass is accurately conserved when passing from one traffic representation to another.

Chemical evolution of protoplanetary disks - the effects of viscous accretion, turbulent mixing and disk winds

We calculate the chemical evolution of protoplanetary disks considering radial viscous accretion, vertical turbulent mixing, and vertical disk winds. We study the effects on the disk chemical structure when different models for the formation of molecular hydrogen on dust grains are adopted. Our gas-phase chemistry is extracted from the UMIST Database for Astrochemistry (Rate06) to which we have added detailed gas-grain interactions. We use our chemical model results to generate synthetic near- and mid-infrared local thermodynamic equilibrium line emission spectra and compare these with recent Spitzer observations. Our results show that if H2 formation on warm grains is taken into consideration, the H2O and OH abundances in the disk surface increase significantly. We find that the radial accretion flow strongly influences the molecular abundances, with those in the cold midplane layers particularly affected. On the other hand, we show that diffusive turbulent mixing affects the disk chemistry in the warm molecular layers, influencing the line emission from the disk and subsequently improving agreement with observations. We find that NH3, CH3OH, C2H2, and sulfur-containing species are greatly enhanced by the inclusion of turbulent mixing. We demonstrate that disk winds potentially affect the disk chemistry and the resulting molecular line emission in a manner similar to that found when mixing is included.

Assessing length of stay and associated characteristics of geriatric patients in Northern Ireland

The effective provision of care for the elderly is becoming increasingly more difficult. This is due to the rising proportion of elderly in the population, increasing demands placed on the health services and the financial strain placed on an already stretched economy. The research presented in this paper uses three different models to represent the length of stay distribution of geriatric patients admitted to one of the six key acute hospitals in Northern Ireland and various patient characteristics associated with their respective length of stay. The accurate modelling of bed usage within wards would enable hospital managers to prepare patient discharge packages and rehabilitation services in advance. The models presented within the paper include a Cox proportional hazards model, a Bayesian network with a discrete variable to represent length of stay and a special conditional phase-type model (C-Ph) with a connecting outcome node. This research demonstrates the new efficient fitting algorithm employed for Coxian phase-type distributions while updating C-Ph models for recent elderly patient data.

Τesting models for the beginnings of the Aurignacian and the advent of figurative art and music: The radiocarbon chronology of Geißenklösterle

The German site of Geißenklösterle is crucial to debates concerning the European Middle to Upper Palaeolithic transition and the origins of the Aurignacian in Europe. Previous dates from the site are
central to an important hypothesis, the Kulturpumpe model, which posits that the Swabian Jura was an area where crucial behavioural developments took place and then spread to other parts of Europe. The previous chronology (critical to the model), is based mainly on radiocarbon dating, but remains poorly constrained due to the dating resolution and the variability of dates. The cause of these problems is disputed, but two principal explanations have been proposed: a) larger than expected variations in the production of atmospheric radiocarbon, and b) taphonomic in?uences in the site mixing the bones that were dated into different parts of the site. We reinvestigate the chronology using a new series of radiocarbon determinations obtained from the Mousterian, Aurignacian and Gravettian levels. The results strongly imply that the previous dates were affected by insuf?cient decontamination of the bone collagen prior to dating. Using an ultra?ltration protocol the chronometric picture becomes much clearer. Comparison of the results against other recently dated sites in other parts of Europe suggests the Early Aurignacian levels are earlier than other sites in the south of France and Italy, but not as early as recently dated sites which suggest a pre-Aurignacian dispersal of modern humans to Italy byw45000 cal BP. They are consistent with the importance of the Danube Corridor as a key route for the movement of people and ideas. The new dates fail to refute the Kulturpumpe model and suggest that Swabian Jura is a region that contributed signi?cantly to the evolution of symbolic behaviour as indicated by early evidence for ?gurative art, music and mythical imagery. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the nudging terms at open boundaries in regional ocean models

For open boundary conditions (OBCs) in regional models, a nudging term added to radiative and/or advective conditions during the wave or flow propagation outward from the model domain of interest is widely used, to prevent the predicted boundary values from evolving to become quite different from the external data, especially for a long-term integration. However, nudging time scales are basically unknown, leading to many empirical selections. In this paper, a method for objectively estimating nudging time scales during outward propagation is proposed, by using internal model dynamics near the boundary. We tested this method and other several commonly used OBCs for cases of both an idealized model domain and a realistic configuration, and model results demonstrated that the proposed method improves the model solutions. Many similarities are found between the nudging and mixing time scales, in magnitude, spatial and temporal variations, since the nudging mainly replaces the effect of the mixing terms in this study. However, the mixing time scale is not an intrinsic property of the nudging term because in other studies the nudging term might replace terms other than the mixing terms and, thus, should reflect other characteristic time scales.

Experimental Investigation of Transient Saltwater Intrusion in Heterogeneous Porous Media

A 2D sandbox style experiment was developed to compare the results of numerical modelling to physical testing for saltwater intrusion in homogeneous and heterogeneous aquifers. The sandbox consisted of a thin central viewing chamber filled with glass beads of varying diameters (780μm, 1090μm and 1325μm) under fully saturated conditions. Dyed saltwater (SW) was introduced at the side boundary and a head difference imposed across the porous media. Images of the SW wedge were recorded at intervals in order to assess the suitability of the numerical models predictions of transient SW intrusion. Numerical modelling of the experimental cases were simulated using SUTRA. Two main parameters were chosen to express the condition of the intruding SW wedge at each recorded time step; the toe penetration length (TL) and the width of the mixing zone (WMZ). The WMZ was larger under transient conditions in the heterogeneous case, while the TL was longer for the homogeneous case. The increased variability in the flow field fo the heterogeneous case resulted in increased dispersion, and thus, increased WMZ.

Gaussian pulse mixing by stacked semiconductor layers

The nonlinear scattering of two Gaussian pulses with different central frequencies incident at slant angles on the periodic stack of binary semiconductor layers has been modelled in the self-consistent problem formulation taking into account the dynamics of charges. The effects of the pump pulse length and central frequencies, and the stack physical and geometrical parameters on the properties of the emitted combinatorial frequency waveforms are analysed and discussed.