Fragility of information cascades: an experimental study using elicited beliefs

This paper examines the occurrence and fragility of information cascades in two laboratory experiments. One group of low informed participants sequentially guess which of two states has been randomly chosen. In a matched pairs design, another group of high informed participants make similar guesses after having observed the guesses of the low informed participants. In the second experiment, participants' beliefs about the chosen state are elicited. In equilibrium, low informed players who observe an established pattern of identical guesses herd without regard to their private information whereas high informed players always guess according to their private information. Equilibrium behavior implies that information cascades emerge in the group of low informed participants, the belief based solely on cascade guesses is stationary, and information cascades are systematically broken by high informed participants endowed with private information contradicting the cascade guesses. Experimental results show that the behavior of low informed participants is qualitatively in line with the equilibrium prediction. Information cascades often emerge in our experiments. The tendency of low informed participants to engage in cascade behavior increases with the number of identical guesses. Our main finding is that information cascades are not fragile. The behavior of high informed participants differs markedly from the equilibrium prediction. Only one-third of laboratory cascades are broken by high informed participants endowed with private information contradicting the cascade guesses. The relative frequency of cascade breaks is 15% for the situations where five or more identical guesses are observed. Participants' elicited beliefs are strongly consistent with their own behavior and show that, unlike in equilibrium, the more cascade guesses participants observe the more they believe in the state favored by those guesses.

Fragility of the spin-glass-like collective state to a magnetic field in an interacting Fe-C nanoparticle system

The effect of applied magnetic fields on the collective nonequilibrium dynamics of a strongly interacting Fe-C nanoparticle system has been investigated. It is experimentally shown that the magnetic aging diminishes to finally disappear for fields of moderate strength. The field needed to remove the observable aging behavior increases with decreasing temperature. The same qualitative behavior is observed in an amorphous metallic spin glass (Fe0.15Ni0.85)(75)P16B6Al3.

The statistical significance of randomized controlled trial results is frequently fragile: A case for a Fragility Index

Objectives

A P-value <0.05 is one metric used to evaluate the results of a randomized controlled trial (RCT). We wondered how often statistically significant results in RCTs may be lost with small changes in the numbers of outcomes.

Study Design and Setting

A review of RCTs in high-impact medical journals that reported a statistically significant result for at least one dichotomous or time-to-event outcome in the abstract. In the group with the smallest number of events, we changed the status of patients without an event to an event until the P-value exceeded 0.05. We labeled this number the Fragility Index; smaller numbers indicated a more fragile result.

Results

The 399 eligible trials had a median sample size of 682 patients (range: 15-112,604) and a median of 112 events (range: 8-5,142); 53% reported a P-value <0.01. The median Fragility Index was 8 (range: 0-109); 25% had a Fragility Index of 3 or less. In 53% of trials, the Fragility Index was less than the number of patients lost to follow-up.

Conclusion

The statistically significant results of many RCTs hinge on small numbers of events. The Fragility Index complements the P-value and helps identify less robust results. 

Development of Seismic Fragility Functions for a Moment Resisting Reinforced Concrete Framed Structure

Understanding the seismic vulnerability of building structures is important for seismic engineers, building owners, risk insurers and governments. Seismic vulnerability defines a buildings predisposition to be damaged as a result of an earthquake of a given severity. There are two components to seismic risk; the seismic hazard and the exposure of the structural inventory to any given earthquake event. This paper demonstrates the development of fragility curves at different damage states using a detailed mechanical model of a moment resisting reinforced concrete structure typical of Southern Europe. The mechanical model consists of a complex three-dimensional finite element model of the reinforced concrete moment resisting frame structure and is used to define the damage states through pushover analysis. Fragility curves are also defined using the HAZUS macroseismic methodology and the Risk-UE macroseismic methodology. Comparison of the mechanically modelled and HAZUS fragility curve shows good agreement while the Risk-UE methodology shows reasonably poor agreement.

Increased cancellous bone and connectivity in coxarthrosis

Patients with coxarthrosis (cOA) have a reduced incidence of intracapsular femoral neck fracture, suggesting that cOA offers protection. The distribution of bone in the femoral neck was compared in cases of coxarthrosis and postmortem controls to assess the possibility that disease-associated changes might contribute to reduced fragility. Whole cross-section femoral neck biopsies were obtained from 17 patients with cOA and 22 age- and sex-matched cadaveric controls. Densitometry was performed using peripheral quantitated computed tomography (pQCT) and histomorphometry on 10-µm plastic-embedded sections. Cortical bone mass was not different between cases and controls (P > 0.23), but cancellous bone mass was increased by 75% in cOA (P = 0.014) and histomorphometric cancellous bone area by 71% (P <0.0001). This was principally the result of an increase of apparent density (mass/vol) of cancellous bone (+45%, P = 0.001). Whereas cortical porosity was increased in the cases (P <0.0001), trabecular width was also increased overall in the cases by 52% (P <0.001), as was cancellous connectivity measured by strut analysis (P <0.01). Where osteophytic bone was present (n = 9) there was a positive relationship between the amount of osteophyte and the percentage of cancellous area (P <0.05). Since cancellous bone buttresses and stiffens the cortex so reducing the risk of buckling, the increased cancellous bone mass and connectivity seen in cases of cOA probably explain, at least in part, the ability of patients with cOA to resist intracapsular fracture of the femoral neck during a fall.

Instrumental and interpretive methods in evaluating urban programmes

The turn within urban policy to address increasingly complex social, economic and environmental problems has exposed some of the fragility of traditional measurement models and their reliance on the rational paradigm. This article looks at the experiences of the European Union (EU) Programme for Peace and Reconciliation in Northern Ireland and its particular attempt to construct new District Partnerships to deliver area-based regeneration programmes. It highlights the need to combine instrumental and interpretative evaluation methods in an attempt to explain the wider contribution of governance to conflict resolution and participatory practice in local development. It concludes by highlighting the value of conceptual approaches that deal with the politics of evaluation and the distributional effects of policy interventions designed to create new relationships within and between multiple stakeholders.

Temperature dependence of the electrical conductivity of imidazolium ionic liquids

The electrical conductivities of 1-alkyl-3-methylimidazolium tetrafluoroborate ionic liquids and of 1-hexyl-3-methylimidazolium ionic liquids with different anions were determined in the temperature range between 123 and 393 K on the basis of dielectric measurements in the frequency range from 1 to 10(7) Hz. Most of the ionic liquids form a glass and the conductivity values obey the Vogel-Fulcher-Tammann equation. The glass transition temperatures are increasing with increasing length of the alkyl chain. The fragility is weakly dependent on the alkyl chain length but is highly sensitive to the structure of the anion. (c) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Temperature Dependence of the Primary Relaxation in 1-Hexyl-3-methylimidazolium bis{(trifluoromethyl)sulfonyl}imide

We present results from complementary characterizations of the primary relaxation rate of a room temperature ionic liquid (RTIL), 1-hexyl-3-methylimidazolium bis{(trifluoromethyl)sulfonyl} imide, [C(6)mim][Tf2N], over a wide temperature range. This extensive data set is successfully merged with existing literature data for conductivity, viscosity, and NMR diffusion coefficients thus providing, for the case of RTILs, a unique description of the primary process relaxation map over more than 12 decades in relaxation rate and between 185 and 430 K. This unique data set allows a detailed characterization of the VTF parameters for the primary process, that are: B = 890 K, T-0 = 155.2 K, leading to a fragility index m = 71, corresponding to an intermediate fragility. For the first time neutron spin echo data from a fully deuteriated sample of RTIL at the two main interference peaks, Q = 0.76 and 1.4 angstrom(-1) are presented. At high temperature (T > 250 K), the collective structural relaxation rate follows the viscosity behavior; however at lower temperatures it deviates from the viscosity behavior, indicating the existence of a faster process.

Detecting motor abnormalities in preterm infants

As a consequence of the fragility of various neural structures, preterm infants born at a low gestation and/or birthweight are at an increased risk of developing motor abnormalities. The lack of a reliable means of assessing motor integrity prevents early therapeutic intervention. In this paper, we propose a new method of assessing neonatal motor performance, namely the recording and subsequent analysis of intraoral sucking pressures generated when feeding nutritively. By measuring the infant's control of sucking in terms of a new development of tau theory, normal patterns of intraoral motor control were established for term infants. Using this same measure, the present study revealed irregularities in sucking control of preterm infants. When these findings were compared to a physiotherapist's assessment six months later, the preterm infants who sucked irregularly were found to be delayed in their motor development. Perhaps a goal-directed behaviour such as sucking control that can be measured objectively at a very young age, could be included as part of the neurological assessment of the preterm infant. More accurate classification of a preterm infant's movement abnormalities would allow for early therapeutic interventions to be realised when the infant is still acquiring the most basic of motor functions. (C) Springer-Verlag 2000.

Desegregation and Place Restructuring in the New Belfast

A sustained reduction in unemployment, economic growth and house price increase have reflected Belfast’s post-conflict renaissance just as readily as the global recession has exposed the fragility of construction-led growth. Rates of segregation had stabilised and new consumption spaces and élite developments further reflected the city’s engagement with globalisation and economic liberalisation. This paper explores the spatial impact of these processes, not least as gentrification has created new layers of residential segregation in a city already preoccupied with high rates of ethno-religious territoriality. A case study of south Belfast connects these shifts to the production of new mixed-religion neighbourhoods. These have the capacity to reduce the relevance of traditional binary identities, but at the same time reproduce new forms of segregation centred on tenure and class. The paper concludes by highlighting the implications for policy and practice, not least as the recession opens new spaces to present alternatives to the market logic.

Network[ed] Listening – towards a de-centering of beings

In this paper, I question modes of listening in network music performance environments, and specifically draw on my experience as a performer listening in these scenarios. I situate network listening within the context of current music making, and refer to changes in compositional practices that draw specific attention to listening. I argue that some of these compositional developments play a determining role in articulating a new discourse of listening. Eric Satie's concept of Furniture Music, Schaeffer's ideas on reduced listening, Oliveros' deep listening practices as well as digital music platforms all serve to show a development towards a proliferation in listening experiences. I expand this narrative to listening practices in network performance environments, and identify a specific bodily fragility in listening in and to the network. This fragile state of listening and de-centered kind of performative being allow me to draw parallels to the Japanese art form Butoh and Elaine Scarry's metaphor of beauty. My own performance experiences, set within the context of several critical texts, allow me to see network[ed] listening as an ideal corporeal state, which offers a rethinking of linear conceptions of the other and a subject's own relation with her world. Ultimately, network[ed] listening posits listening as a corporeal and multi-dimensional experience that is continuously being re-shaped by technological, socio-political and cultural concerns.

Physicochemical Characterization of Morpholinium Cation Based Protic Ionic Liquids Used As Electrolytes

New protic ionic liquids (PILs) based on the morpholinium, N-methylmorpholinium, and N-ethyl morpholinium cations have been synthesized through a simple and atom-economic neutralization reaction between N-alkyl morpholine and formic acid. Their densities, refractive indices, thermal properties, and electrochemical windows have been measured. The temperature dependence of their dynamic viscosity and ionic conductivity have also been determined. The results allow us to classify them according to a classical Walden diagram and to evaluate their “fragility”. In addition, morpholinium based PILs exhibit a large electrochemical window as compared to other protic ionic liquids (up 2.91 V) and possess relatively high ionic conductivities of 10-16.8 mS·cm-1 at 25 °C and 21-29 mS·cm-1 at 100 °C, and a residual conductivity close to 1.0 mS·cm-1 at -15 °C. PIL-water mixtures exhibit high ionic conductivities up to 65 mS·cm-1 at 25 °C and 120 mS·cm-1 at 100 °C for morpholinium formate with water weight fraction ww = 0.6. Morpholinium based PILs studied in this work have a low cost and low toxicity, are good ionic liquids, and prove extremely fragile. They have wide applicable perspectives as electrolytes for fuel cell devices, thermal transfer fluids, and acid-catalyzed reaction media as replacements of conventional solvents.

Influence of the anion on the electrical conductivity and glass formation of 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium ionic liquids

Six ionic liquids based on the 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium cation have been studied. As anions Cl-, Br-, I-, [NCS](-), [N(CN)(2)](-), and [BF4](-) were selected. The electrical conductivities were determined between 173 and 393 K based on impedance measurements in the frequency range from 0.1 to 10(7) Hz. The electrical conductivity increases, whereas the glass transition temperature, the fragility, and the low temperature activation energy decrease with increasing anion size. The results can be understood from the changing anion-cation interaction strength with changing anion size and from the energy landscape interpretation of the glass transition dynamics. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3455892]