A long-term analysis of pumped hydro storage to firm wind power

Although pumped hydro storage is seen as a strategic key asset by grid operators, financing it is complicated in new liberalised markets. It could be argued that the optimum generation portfolio is now determined by the economic viability of generators based on a short to medium term return on investment. This has meant that capital intensive projects such as pumped hydro storage are less attractive for wholesale electricity companies because the payback periods are too long. In tandem a significant amount of wind power has entered the generation mix, which has resulted in operating and planning integration issues due to wind's inherent uncertain, varying spatial and temporal nature. These integration issues can be overcome using fast acting gas peaking plant or energy storage. Most analysis of wind power integration using storage to date has used stochastic optimisation for power system balancing or arbitrage modelling to examine techno-economic viability. In this research a deterministic dynamic programming long term generation expansion model is employed to optimise the generation mix, total system costs and total carbon dioxide emissions, and unlike other studies calculates reserve to firm wind power. The key finding of this study is that the incentive to build capital-intensive pumped hydro storage to firm wind power is limited unless exogenous market costs come very strongly into play. Furthermore it was demonstrated that reserve increases with increasing wind power showing the importance of ancillary services in future power systems. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SO and CS observations of molecular clouds - II. Analysis and modelling of the abundance ratios - probing O-2/CO with SO/CS?

We here analyse the observational SO and CS data presented in Nilsson ct al. (2000). The SO/CS integrated intensity ratio maps are presented for 19 molecular clouds, together with tables of relevant ratios at strategic positions, where we have also observed (SO)-S-34 and/or (CS)-S-34. The SO/CS abundance ratio as calculated from an LTE analysis is highly varying within and between the sources. Our isotopomer observations and Monte Carlo simulations verify that this is not an artifact due to optical depth problems. The variation of the maximum SO/CS abundance ratio between the clouds is 0.2-7. The largest variations within a cloud are found for the most nearby objects, possibly indicating resolution effects. We have also performed time dependent chemical simulations. We compare the simulations with our observed SO/CS abundance ratios and suggest a varying oxygen to carbon initial abundance, differing temporal evolution, density differences and X-ray sources associated with young stellar objects as possible explanations to the variations. In particular, the observed variation of the maximum SO/CS abundance ratio between the clouds can be explained by using initial O/C+ abundance ratios in the range 1.3-2.5. We finally derive a relationship between the SO/CS and O-2/CO abundance ratios, which may be used as a guide to find the most promising interstellar O-2 search targets.

Analysis of Degradation Data of Poly(L-lactide-co-L,D-lactic actide) and Poly(L-lactide) Obtained at Elevated and Physiological Temperatures Using Mathematical Models

The degradation of resorbable polymeric devices often takes months to years. Accelerated testing at elevated temperatures is an attractive but controversial technique. The purposes of this paper include: (a) to provide a summary of the mathematical models required to analyse accelerated degradation data and to indicate the pitfalls of using these models; (b) to improve the model previously developed by Han and Pan; (c) to provide a simple version of the model of Han and Pan with an analytical solution that is convenient to use; (d) to demonstrate the application of the improved model in two different poly(lactic acid) systems. It is shown that the simple analytical relations between molecular weight and degradation time widely used in the literature can lead to inadequate conclusions. In more general situations the rate equations are only part of a complete degradation model. Together with previous works in the literature, our study calls for care in using the accelerated testing technique.

Review and meta-analysis of the short-term effects of a vegetable oil emulsion on food intake

Several short-term studies have investigated the effects of a vegetable oil emulsion on subsequent food intake, although findings have been inconsistent. This work aimed to review all studies, and investigate differences in study outcomes based on methodology. All known studies were identified. Data were abstracted from published studies (n = 7). Details of unpublished studies were gained from investigators/sponsors (n = 5), or were unavailable for reasons of confidentiality (n = 4). Available data were combined using meta-analyses. A combined appetite suppressant effect of the emulsion compared with control was found for test meal intake at approximately 4, 12 and 36 h post-treatment: smallest combined mean difference (random effects model) = 0.53 MJ (95% confidence interval 0.20, 0.86), P < 0.01. However, considerable heterogeneity (variability) between study results was also found (smallest I2 = 94%, P < 0.01), questioning the predictive validity of the above findings. Meta-regression suggested this heterogeneity to be related to differences in the processed nature of the product, treatment dose and in particular year of study (smallest B = 0.54, 95% confidence interval 0.06, 1.03, P = 0.04), although again heterogeneity was found. The only consistent finding was a lack of effect on food intake 4 h post-preload in studies conducted after 2003. These results suggest a small but inconsistent appetite suppressant effect of the vegetable oil emulsion. However, due to the large heterogeneity, no definitive conclusions can be drawn.

A probabilistic modelling scheme for analysis of long-term failure of cemented femoral joint replacements

Reliable prediction of long-term medical device performance using computer simulation requires consideration of variability in surgical procedure, as well as patient-specific factors. However, even deterministic simulation of long-term failure processes for such devices is time and resource consuming so that including variability can lead to excessive time to achieve useful predictions. This study investigates the use of an accelerated probabilistic framework for predicting the likely performance envelope of a device and applies it to femoral prosthesis loosening in cemented hip arthroplasty.
A creep and fatigue damage failure model for bone cement, in conjunction with an interfacial fatigue model for the implant–cement interface, was used to simulate loosening of a prosthesis within a cement mantle. A deterministic set of trial simulations was used to account for variability of a set of surgical and patient factors, and a response surface method was used to perform and accelerate a Monte Carlo simulation to achieve an estimate of the likely range of prosthesis loosening. The proposed framework was used to conceptually investigate the influence of prosthesis selection and surgical placement on prosthesis migration.
Results demonstrate that the response surface method is capable of dramatically reducing the time to achieve convergence in mean and variance of predicted response variables. A critical requirement for realistic predictions is the size and quality of the initial training dataset used to generate the response surface and further work is required to determine the recommendations for a minimum number of initial trials. Results of this conceptual application predicted that loosening was sensitive to the implant size and femoral width. Furthermore, different rankings of implant performance were predicted when only individual simulations (e.g. an average condition) were used to rank implants, compared with when stochastic simulations were used. In conclusion, the proposed framework provides a viable approach to predicting realistic ranges of loosening behaviour for orthopaedic implants in reduced timeframes compared with conventional Monte Carlo simulations.

Genome-wide analysis of p63 binding sites identifies AP-2 factors as co-regulators of epidermal differentiation

The p63 transcription factor (TP63) is critical in development, growth and differentiation of stratifying epithelia. This is highlighted by the severity of congenital abnormalities caused by TP63 mutations in humans, the dramatic phenotypes in knockout mice and de-regulation of TP63 expression in neoplasia altering the tumour suppressive roles of the TP53 family. In order to define the normal role played by TP63 and provide the basis for better understanding how this network is perturbed in disease, we used chromatin immunoprecipitation combined with massively parallel sequencing (ChIP-seq) to identify >7500 high-confidence TP63-binding regions across the entire genome, in primary human neonatal foreskin keratinocytes (HFKs). Using integrative strategies, we demonstrate that only a subset of these sites are bound by TP53 in response to DNA damage. We identify a role for TP63 in transcriptional regulation of multiple genes genetically linked to cleft palate and identify AP-2alpha (TFAP2A) as a co-regulator of a subset of these genes. We further demonstrate that AP-2gamma (TFAP2C) can bind a subset of these regions and that acute depletion of either TFAP2A or TFAP2C alone is sufficient to reduce terminal differentiation of organotypic epidermal skin equivalents, indicating overlapping physiological functions with TP63.

Long-term renal outcomes of patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus and microalbuminuria:an analysis of the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial/Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications cohort

Microalbuminuria is a common diagnosis in the clinical care of patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus. Long-term outcomes after the development of microalbuminuria are variable.