Regional and annual variation in black-legged kittiwake breeding productivity is related to sea surface temperature

Spatiotemporal variation in seabird demographic parameters is often pronounced and may be an important source of information on the state of marine ecosystems. Black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla in Britain and Ireland show strong regional structure in breeding productivity, and both temporal and spatial variation are probably related to abundance of the principal prey of breeding kittiwakes, the lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus. Annual regional estimates of sandeel abundance do not exist, prohibiting direct tests of this hypothesis. We examined relationships between kittiwake breeding productivity and 2 potential proxies of sandeel abundance, winter sea surface temperature (SST) and abundance of Calanus copepods, within and among 6 regions in Britain and Ireland from 1986 to 2004. Means and trends in winter SST differed among regions, with higher means and less pronounced increasing trends in western (Atlantic) regions than in eastern (North Sea) regions. A negative relationship between breeding productivity and winter SST in the previous year was found within 2 regions (East Scotland and Orkney), as well as in a cross-regional analysis. Results were inconclusive for Calanus abundance, with a positive relationship in East Scotland and negative in Orkney. These results demonstrate that although a single environmental driver (SST) is related to both within- and between-region variation in a key demographic parameter, regional heterogeneity in SST trends as well as the importance of other factors may lead to highly variable responses. Understanding this heterogeneity is critical for predicting long-term effects of climate change or other anthropogenic drivers on marine ecosystems.

Global synchrony of an accelerating risein sea surface temperature

The oceans have shown a recent rapid and accelerating rise in temperature with, given the close link between temperature and marine organisms, pronounced effects on ecosystems. Here we describe for the first time a globally synchronous pattern of pulsed short period (�1 year long) emanations of warm sea surface temperature anomalies from tropical seas towards the poles on the shelf/slope with an intensification of the warming after the 1976/1977, 1986/1987 and 1997/1998 El Nin˜os. On the eastern margins of continents the anomalies propagate towards the poles in part by largely baroclinic boundary currents, reinforced by regional atmospheric warming. The processes contributing to the less continuous warm anomalies on western margins are linked to the transfer of warmth from adjacent western boundary currents. These climate induced events show a close parallelism with the timing of ecosystem changes in shelf seas, important for fisheries and ecosystem services, and melting of sea-ice.

Simple heterogeneity parametrization for sea surface temperature and chlorophyll

Using satellite maps this paper offers a complex analysis of chlorophyll & SST heterogeneity in the shelf seas around the southwest of the UK. The heterogeneity scaling follows a simple power law and is consequently pa- rametrized by two parameters. It is shown that in most cases these two parameters vary only relatively little with time. The paper offers a detailed comparison of field heterogeneity between different regions. How much hetero- geneity is in each region preserved in the annual median data is also determined. The paper explicitly demon- strates how one can use these results to calculate representative measurement area for in situ networks.

Simple heterogeneity parametrization for sea surface temperature and chlorophyll

Using satellite maps this paper offers a complex analysis of chlorophyll & SST heterogeneity in the shelf seas around the southwest of the UK. The heterogeneity scaling follows a simple power law and is consequently pa- rametrized by two parameters. It is shown that in most cases these two parameters vary only relatively little with time. The paper offers a detailed comparison of field heterogeneity between different regions. How much hetero- geneity is in each region preserved in the annual median data is also determined. The paper explicitly demon- strates how one can use these results to calculate representative measurement area for in situ networks.

Relating sardine recruitment in the Northern Benguela to satellite-derived sea surface height using a neural network pattern recognition approach

Processes of enrichment, concentration and retention are thought to be important for the successful recruitment of small pelagic fish in upwelling areas, but are difficult to measure. In this study, a novel approach is used to examine the role of spatio-temporal oceanographic variability on recruitment success of the Northern Benguela sardine Sardinops sagax. This approach applies a neural network pattern recognition technique, called a self-organising map (SOM), to a seven-year time series of satellite-derived sea level data. The Northern Benguela is characterised by quasi-perennial upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water and is influenced by intrusions of warm, nutrient-poor Angola Current water from the north. In this paper, these processes are categorised in terms of their influence on recruitment success through the key ocean triad mechanisms of enrichment, concentration and retention. Moderate upwelling is seen as favourable for recruitment, whereas strong upwelling, weak upwelling and Angola Current intrusion appear detrimental to recruitment success. The SOM was used to identify characteristic patterns from sea level difference data and these were interpreted with the aid of sea surface temperature data. We found that the major oceanographic processes of upwelling and Angola Current intrusion dominated these patterns, allowing them to be partitioned into those representing recruitment favourable conditions and those representing adverse conditions for recruitment. A marginally significant relationship was found between the index of sardine recruitment and the frequency of recruitment favourable conditions (r super(2) = 0.61, p = 0.068, n = 6). Because larvae are vulnerable to environmental influences for a period of at least 50 days after spawning, the SOM was then used to identify windows of persistent favourable conditions lasting longer than 50 days, termed recruitment favourable periods (RFPs). The occurrence of RFPs was compared with back-calculated spawning dates for each cohort. Finally, a comparison of RFPs with the time of spawning and the index of recruitment showed that in years where there were 50 or more days of favourable conditions following spawning, good recruitment followed (Mann-Whitney U-test: p = 0.064, n = 6). These results show the value of the SOM technique for describing spatio-temporal variability in oceanographic processes. Variability in these processes appears to be an important factor influencing recruitment in the Northern Benguela sardine, although the available data time series is currently too short to be conclusive. Nonetheless, the analysis of satellite data, using a neural network pattern-recognition approach, provides a useful framework for investigating fisheries recruitment problems.

Temperature affects the timing of spawning and migration of North Sea mackerel

Climate change accentuates the need for knowing how temperature impacts the life history and productivity of economically and ecologically important species of fish. We examine the influence of temperature on the timing of the spawning and migrations of North Sea Mackerel using data from larvae CPR surveys, egg surveys and commercial landings from Danish coastal fisheries in the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and inner Danish waters. The three independent sources of data all show that there is a significant relationship between the timing of spawning and sea surface temperature. Large mackerel are shown to arrive at the feeding areas before and leave later than small mackerel and the sequential appearance of mackerel in each of the feeding areas studied supports the anecdotal evidence for an eastward post-spawning migration. Occasional commercial catches taken in winter in the Sound N, Kattegat and Skagerrak together with catches in the first quarter IBTS survey furthermore indicate some overwintering here. Significant relationships between temperature and North Sea mackerel spawning and migration have not been documented before. The results have implications for mackerel resource management and monitoring. An increase in temperature is likely to affect the timing and magnitude of the growth, recruitment and migration of North Sea mackerel with subsequent impacts on its sustainable exploitation.

Decadal fluctuations in North Atlantic water inflow in the North Sea between 1958-2003: impacts on temperature and phytoplankton populations

The circulation of Atlantic water along the European continental slope, in particular the inflow into the North Sea, influences North Sea water characteristics with consequent changes in the environment affecting plankton community dynamics. The long-term effect of fluctuating oceanographic conditions oil the North Sea, pelagic ecosystem is assessed. It is shown that (i) there are similar regime shifts in the inflow through the northern North Sea and in Sea, Surface Temperature, (ii) long-term phytoplankton trends are influenced by the inflow only in some North Sea regions, and (iii) the spatial variability in chemicophysical and biological parameters highlight the influence of smaller scale processes.