Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario

In this paper we clearly demonstrate that changes in oceanic nutrients are a first order factor in determining changes in the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf on time scales of 5–10 yr. We present a series of coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem modelling simulations, using the POLCOMS-ERSEM system. These are forced by both reanalysis data and a single example of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OA-GCM) representative of possible conditions in 2080–2100 under an SRES A1B emissions scenario, along with the corresponding present day control. The OA-GCM forced simulations show a substantial reduction in surface nutrients in the open-ocean regions of the model domain, comparing future and present day time-slices. This arises from a large increase in oceanic stratification. Tracer transport experiments identify a substantial fraction of on-shelf water originates from the open-ocean region to the south of the domain, where this increase is largest, and indeed the on-shelf nutrient and primary production are reduced as this water is transported on-shelf. This relationship is confirmed quantitatively by comparing changes in winter nitrate with total annual nitrate uptake. The reduction in primary production by the reduced nutrient transport is mitigated by on-shelf processes relating to temperature, stratification (length of growing season) and recycling. Regions less exposed to ocean-shelf exchange in this model (Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel, and Southern North Sea) show a modest increase in primary production (of 5–10%) compared with a decrease of 0–20% in the outer shelf, Central and Northern North Sea. These findings are backed up by a boundary condition perturbation experiment and a simple mixing model.

North Sea ecosystem change from swimming crabs to seagulls

A recent increase in sea temperature has established a new ecosystem dynamic regime in the North Sea. Climate-induced changes in decapods have played an important role. Here, we reveal a coincident increase in the abundance of swimming crabs and lesser black-backed gull colonies in the North Sea, both in time and in space. Swimming crabs are an important food source for lesser black-backed gulls during the breeding season. Inhabiting the land, but feeding mainly at sea, lesser black-backed gulls provide a link between marine and terrestrial ecosystems, since the bottom-up influence of allochthonous nutrient input from seabirds to coastal soils can structure the terrestrial food web. We, therefore, suggest that climate-driven changes in trophic interactions in the marine food web may also have ensuing ramifications for the coastal ecology of the North Sea.

The importance of zooplankton in reducing levels of atmospheric CO sub(2) via the biological pump

Zooplankton play a key role in climate change through the transfer of large quantities of CO sub(2) to the deep ocean by a process known as the biological pump. Plankton composition is crucial as associated mineral material facilitates sinking of carbon rich debris and some taxa package faecal and detrital material. Ocean acidification may impact calcareous groups. Zooplankton have also been shown to be highly sensitive indicators of environmental change. Results will be presented to show that ocean temperature, circulation and planktonic ecosystems (using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder, CPR survey) in the North Atlantic are changing rapidly in concert and that there is evidence to suggest that the changes are an ocean wide response to global warming with potential feedback effects. Given the importance of the oceans to the carbon cycle, even a minor change in the flux of carbon to the deep ocean would have a big impact increasing growth of atmospheric CO sub(2). We have virtually no understanding of the spatial and temporal variability in the efficiency of the biological pump for most of the world's ocean. Establishing new plankton monitoring programmes backed up by appropriate research to help understand processes is needed to address this gap in knowledge. There is little doubt within a global change context and the future of mankind that a potential acceleration in the growth of atmospheric carbon due to a reduction in the efficiency of the biological pump is a key issue for future research in zooplankton ecology.