Regional and annual variation in black-legged kittiwake breeding productivity is related to sea surface temperature

Spatiotemporal variation in seabird demographic parameters is often pronounced and may be an important source of information on the state of marine ecosystems. Black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla in Britain and Ireland show strong regional structure in breeding productivity, and both temporal and spatial variation are probably related to abundance of the principal prey of breeding kittiwakes, the lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus. Annual regional estimates of sandeel abundance do not exist, prohibiting direct tests of this hypothesis. We examined relationships between kittiwake breeding productivity and 2 potential proxies of sandeel abundance, winter sea surface temperature (SST) and abundance of Calanus copepods, within and among 6 regions in Britain and Ireland from 1986 to 2004. Means and trends in winter SST differed among regions, with higher means and less pronounced increasing trends in western (Atlantic) regions than in eastern (North Sea) regions. A negative relationship between breeding productivity and winter SST in the previous year was found within 2 regions (East Scotland and Orkney), as well as in a cross-regional analysis. Results were inconclusive for Calanus abundance, with a positive relationship in East Scotland and negative in Orkney. These results demonstrate that although a single environmental driver (SST) is related to both within- and between-region variation in a key demographic parameter, regional heterogeneity in SST trends as well as the importance of other factors may lead to highly variable responses. Understanding this heterogeneity is critical for predicting long-term effects of climate change or other anthropogenic drivers on marine ecosystems.

Global synchrony of an accelerating risein sea surface temperature

The oceans have shown a recent rapid and accelerating rise in temperature with, given the close link between temperature and marine organisms, pronounced effects on ecosystems. Here we describe for the first time a globally synchronous pattern of pulsed short period (�1 year long) emanations of warm sea surface temperature anomalies from tropical seas towards the poles on the shelf/slope with an intensification of the warming after the 1976/1977, 1986/1987 and 1997/1998 El Nin˜os. On the eastern margins of continents the anomalies propagate towards the poles in part by largely baroclinic boundary currents, reinforced by regional atmospheric warming. The processes contributing to the less continuous warm anomalies on western margins are linked to the transfer of warmth from adjacent western boundary currents. These climate induced events show a close parallelism with the timing of ecosystem changes in shelf seas, important for fisheries and ecosystem services, and melting of sea-ice.

Simple heterogeneity parametrization for sea surface temperature and chlorophyll

Using satellite maps this paper offers a complex analysis of chlorophyll & SST heterogeneity in the shelf seas around the southwest of the UK. The heterogeneity scaling follows a simple power law and is consequently pa- rametrized by two parameters. It is shown that in most cases these two parameters vary only relatively little with time. The paper offers a detailed comparison of field heterogeneity between different regions. How much hetero- geneity is in each region preserved in the annual median data is also determined. The paper explicitly demon- strates how one can use these results to calculate representative measurement area for in situ networks.

Simple heterogeneity parametrization for sea surface temperature and chlorophyll

Using satellite maps this paper offers a complex analysis of chlorophyll & SST heterogeneity in the shelf seas around the southwest of the UK. The heterogeneity scaling follows a simple power law and is consequently pa- rametrized by two parameters. It is shown that in most cases these two parameters vary only relatively little with time. The paper offers a detailed comparison of field heterogeneity between different regions. How much hetero- geneity is in each region preserved in the annual median data is also determined. The paper explicitly demon- strates how one can use these results to calculate representative measurement area for in situ networks.