Correcting the errors: Volatility forecast evaluation using high-frequency data and realized volatilities

We develop general model-free adjustment procedures for the calculation of unbiased volatility loss functions based on practically feasible realized volatility benchmarks. The procedures, which exploit recent nonparametric asymptotic distributional results, are both easy-to-implement and highly accurate in empirically realistic situations. We also illustrate that properly accounting for the measurement errors in the volatility forecast evaluations reported in the existing literature can result in markedly higher estimates for the true degree of return volatility predictability.

The effect of involuntary job loss on smoking intensity and relapse.

AIMS: To assess the impact of involuntary job loss due to plant closure or layoff on relapse to smoking and smoking intensity among older workers. DESIGN, PARTICIPANTS, SAMPLE: Data come from the Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative survey of older Americans aged 51-61 in 1991 followed every 2 years beginning in 1992. The 3052 participants who were working at the initial wave and had any history of smoking comprise the main sample. METHODS: Primary outcomes are smoking relapse at wave 2 (1994) among baseline former smokers, and smoking quantity at wave 2 among baseline current smokers. As reported at the wave 2 follow-up, 6.8% of the sample experienced an involuntary job loss between waves 1 and 2. FINDINGS: Older workers have over two times greater odds of relapse subsequent to involuntary job loss than those who did not. Further, those who were current smokers prior to displacement that did not obtain new employment were found to be smoking more cigarettes, on average, post-job loss. CONCLUSIONS: The stress of job loss, along with other significant changes associated with leaving one's job, which would tend to increase cigarette consumption, must outweigh the financial hardship which would tend to reduce consumption. This highlights job loss as an important health risk factor for older smokers.

Conservation, duplication, and loss of the Tor signaling pathway in the fungal kingdom.

BACKGROUND: The nutrient-sensing Tor pathway governs cell growth and is conserved in nearly all eukaryotic organisms from unicellular yeasts to multicellular organisms, including humans. Tor is the target of the immunosuppressive drug rapamycin, which in complex with the prolyl isomerase FKBP12 inhibits Tor functions. Rapamycin is a gold standard drug for organ transplant recipients that was approved by the FDA in 1999 and is finding additional clinical indications as a chemotherapeutic and antiproliferative agent. Capitalizing on the plethora of recently sequenced genomes we have conducted comparative genomic studies to annotate the Tor pathway throughout the fungal kingdom and related unicellular opisthokonts, including Monosiga brevicollis, Salpingoeca rosetta, and Capsaspora owczarzaki. RESULTS: Interestingly, the Tor signaling cascade is absent in three microsporidian species with available genome sequences, the only known instance of a eukaryotic group lacking this conserved pathway. The microsporidia are obligate intracellular pathogens with highly reduced genomes, and we hypothesize that they lost the Tor pathway as they adapted and streamlined their genomes for intracellular growth in a nutrient-rich environment. Two TOR paralogs are present in several fungal species as a result of either a whole genome duplication or independent gene/segmental duplication events. One such event was identified in the amphibian pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a chytrid responsible for worldwide global amphibian declines and extinctions. CONCLUSIONS: The repeated independent duplications of the TOR gene in the fungal kingdom might reflect selective pressure acting upon this kinase that populates two proteinaceous complexes with different cellular roles. These comparative genomic analyses illustrate the evolutionary trajectory of a central nutrient-sensing cascade that enables diverse eukaryotic organisms to respond to their natural environments.

Unprecedented loss of ammonia assimilation capability in a urease-encoding bacterial mutualist.

BACKGROUND: Blochmannia are obligately intracellular bacterial mutualists of ants of the tribe Camponotini. Blochmannia perform key nutritional functions for the host, including synthesis of several essential amino acids. We used Illumina technology to sequence the genome of Blochmannia associated with Camponotus vafer. RESULTS: Although Blochmannia vafer retains many nutritional functions, it is missing glutamine synthetase (glnA), a component of the nitrogen recycling pathway encoded by the previously sequenced B. floridanus and B. pennsylvanicus. With the exception of Ureaplasma, B. vafer is the only sequenced bacterium to date that encodes urease but lacks the ability to assimilate ammonia into glutamine or glutamate. Loss of glnA occurred in a deletion hotspot near the putative replication origin. Overall, compared to the likely gene set of their common ancestor, 31 genes are missing or eroded in B. vafer, compared to 28 in B. floridanus and four in B. pennsylvanicus. Three genes (queA, visC and yggS) show convergent loss or erosion, suggesting relaxed selection for their functions. Eight B. vafer genes contain frameshifts in homopolymeric tracts that may be corrected by transcriptional slippage. Two of these encode DNA replication proteins: dnaX, which we infer is also frameshifted in B. floridanus, and dnaG. CONCLUSIONS: Comparing the B. vafer genome with B. pennsylvanicus and B. floridanus refines the core genes shared within the mutualist group, thereby clarifying functions required across ant host species. This third genome also allows us to track gene loss and erosion in a phylogenetic context to more fully understand processes of genome reduction.

Comparison of a reduced carbohydrate and reduced fat diet for LDL, HDL, and VLDL subclasses during 9-months of weight maintenance subsequent to weight loss.

OBJECTIVES: This study compared LDL, HDL, and VLDL subclasses in overweight or obese adults consuming either a reduced carbohydrate (RC) or reduced fat (RF) weight maintenance diet for 9 months following significant weight loss. METHODS: Thirty-five (21 RC; 14 RF) overweight or obese middle-aged adults completed a 1-year weight management clinic. Participants met weekly for the first six months and bi-weekly thereafter. Meetings included instruction for diet, physical activity, and behavior change related to weight management. Additionally, participants followed a liquid very low-energy diet of approximately 2092 kJ per day for the first three months of the study. Subsequently, participants followed a dietary plan for nine months that targeted a reduced percentage of carbohydrate (approximately 20%) or fat (approximately 30%) intake and an energy intake level calculated to maintain weight loss. Lipid subclasses using NMR spectroscopy were analyzed prior to weight loss and at multiple intervals during weight maintenance. RESULTS: Body weight change was not significantly different within or between groups during weight maintenance (p>0.05). The RC group showed significant increases in mean LDL size, large LDL, total HDL, large and small HDL, mean VLDL size, and large VLDL during weight maintenance while the RF group showed increases in total HDL, large and small HDL, total VLDL, and large, medium, and small VLDL (p<0.05). Group*time interactions were significant for large and medium VLDL (p>0.05). CONCLUSION: Some individual lipid subclasses improved in both dietary groups. Large and medium VLDL subclasses increased to a greater extent across weight maintenance in the RF group.

Missing data in randomized clinical trials for weight loss: scope of the problem, state of the field, and performance of statistical methods.

BACKGROUND: Dropouts and missing data are nearly-ubiquitous in obesity randomized controlled trails, threatening validity and generalizability of conclusions. Herein, we meta-analytically evaluate the extent of missing data, the frequency with which various analytic methods are employed to accommodate dropouts, and the performance of multiple statistical methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched PubMed and Cochrane databases (2000-2006) for articles published in English and manually searched bibliographic references. Articles of pharmaceutical randomized controlled trials with weight loss or weight gain prevention as major endpoints were included. Two authors independently reviewed each publication for inclusion. 121 articles met the inclusion criteria. Two authors independently extracted treatment, sample size, drop-out rates, study duration, and statistical method used to handle missing data from all articles and resolved disagreements by consensus. In the meta-analysis, drop-out rates were substantial with the survival (non-dropout) rates being approximated by an exponential decay curve (e(-lambdat)) where lambda was estimated to be .0088 (95% bootstrap confidence interval: .0076 to .0100) and t represents time in weeks. The estimated drop-out rate at 1 year was 37%. Most studies used last observation carried forward as the primary analytic method to handle missing data. We also obtained 12 raw obesity randomized controlled trial datasets for empirical analyses. Analyses of raw randomized controlled trial data suggested that both mixed models and multiple imputation performed well, but that multiple imputation may be more robust when missing data are extensive. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our analysis offers an equation for predictions of dropout rates useful for future study planning. Our raw data analyses suggests that multiple imputation is better than other methods for handling missing data in obesity randomized controlled trials, followed closely by mixed models. We suggest these methods supplant last observation carried forward as the primary method of analysis.

Eco-evolutionary trophic dynamics: loss of top predators drives trophic evolution and ecology of prey.

Ecosystems are being altered on a global scale by the extirpation of top predators. The ecological effects of predator removal have been investigated widely; however, predator removal can also change natural selection acting on prey, resulting in contemporary evolution. Here we tested the role of predator removal on the contemporary evolution of trophic traits in prey. We utilized a historical introduction experiment where Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata) were relocated from a site with predatory fishes to a site lacking predators. To assess the trophic consequences of predator release, we linked individual morphology (cranial, jaw, and body) to foraging performance. Our results show that predator release caused an increase in guppy density and a "sharpening" of guppy trophic traits, which enhanced food consumption rates. Predator release appears to have shifted natural selection away from predator escape ability and towards resource acquisition ability. Related diet and mesocosm studies suggest that this shift enhances the impact of guppies on lower trophic levels in a fashion nuanced by the omnivorous feeding ecology of the species. We conclude that extirpation of top predators may commonly select for enhanced feeding performance in prey, with important cascading consequences for communities and ecosystems.

Economic return of clinical trials performed under the pediatric exclusivity program.

CONTEXT: In 1997, Congress authorized the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to grant 6-month extensions of marketing rights through the Pediatric Exclusivity Program if industry sponsors complete FDA-requested pediatric trials. The program has been praised for creating incentives for studies in children and has been criticized as a "windfall" to the innovator drug industry. This critique has been a substantial part of congressional debate on the program, which is due to expire in 2007. OBJECTIVE: To quantify the economic return to industry for completing pediatric exclusivity trials. DESIGN AND SETTING: A cohort study of programs conducted for pediatric exclusivity. Nine drugs that were granted pediatric exclusivity were selected. From the final study reports submitted to the FDA (2002-2004), key elements of the clinical trial design and study operations were obtained, and the cost of performing each study was estimated and converted into estimates of after-tax cash outflows. Three-year market sales were obtained and converted into estimates of after-tax cash inflows based on 6 months of additional market protection. Net economic return (cash inflows minus outflows) and net return-to-costs ratio (net economic return divided by cash outflows) for each product were then calculated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Net economic return and net return-to-cost ratio. RESULTS: The indications studied reflect a broad representation of the program: asthma, tumors, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, hypertension, depression/generalized anxiety disorder, diabetes mellitus, gastroesophageal reflux, bacterial infection, and bone mineralization. The distribution of net economic return for 6 months of exclusivity varied substantially among products (net economic return ranged from -$8.9 million to $507.9 million and net return-to-cost ratio ranged from -0.68 to 73.63). CONCLUSIONS: The economic return for pediatric exclusivity is variable. As an incentive to complete much-needed clinical trials in children, pediatric exclusivity can generate lucrative returns or produce more modest returns on investment.

Low-loss directional cloaks without superluminal velocity or magnetic response.

The possibility of making an optically large (many wavelengths in diameter) object appear invisible has been a subject of many recent studies. Exact invisibility scenarios for large (relative to the wavelength) objects involve (meta)materials with superluminal phase velocity [refractive index (RI) less than unity] and/or magnetic response. We introduce a new approximation applicable to certain device geometries in the eikonal limit: piecewise-uniform scaling of the RI. This transformation preserves the ray trajectories but leads to a uniform phase delay. We show how to take advantage of phase delays to achieve a limited (directional and wavelength-dependent) form of invisibility that does not require loss-ridden (meta)materials with superluminal phase velocities.

Measurements of Epidural Space Depth Using Preexisting CT Scans Correlate with Loss of Resistance Depth during Thoracic Epidural Catheter Placement.

Background. Thoracic epidural catheters provide the best quality postoperative pain relief for major abdominal and thoracic surgical procedures, but placement is one of the most challenging procedures in the repertoire of an anesthesiologist. Most patients presenting for a procedure that would benefit from a thoracic epidural catheter have already had high resolution imaging that may be useful to assist placement of a catheter. Methods. This retrospective study used data from 168 patients to examine the association and predictive power of epidural-skin distance (ESD) on computed tomography (CT) to determine loss of resistance depth acquired during epidural placement. Additionally, the ability of anesthesiologists to measure this distance was compared to a radiologist, who specializes in spine imaging. Results. There was a strong association between CT measurement and loss of resistance depth (P < 0.0001); the presence of morbid obesity (BMI > 35) changed this relationship (P = 0.007). The ability of anesthesiologists to make CT measurements was similar to a gold standard radiologist (all individual ICCs > 0.9). Conclusions. Overall, this study supports the examination of a recent CT scan to aid in the placement of a thoracic epidural catheter. Making use of these scans may lead to faster epidural placements, fewer accidental dural punctures, and better epidural blockade.

When the library is located in prime real estate: a case study on the loss of space from the Duke University Medical Center Library and Archives.

The Duke University Medical Center Library and Archives is located in the heart of the Duke Medicine campus, surrounded by Duke Hospital, ambulatory clinics, and numerous research facilities. Its location is considered prime real estate, given its adjacency to patient care, research, and educational activities. In 2005, the Duke University Library Space Planning Committee had recommended creating a learning center in the library that would support a variety of educational activities. However, the health system needed to convert the library's top floor into office space to make way for expansion of the hospital and cancer center. The library had only five months to plan the storage and consolidation of its journal and book collections, while working with the facilities design office and architect on the replacement of key user spaces on the top floor. Library staff worked together to develop plans for storing, weeding, and consolidating the collections and provided input into renovation plans for users spaces on its mezzanine level. The library lost 15,238 square feet (29%) of its net assignable square footage and a total of 16,897 (30%) gross square feet. This included 50% of the total space allotted to collections and over 15% of user spaces. The top-floor space now houses offices for Duke Medicine oncology faculty and staff. By storing a large portion of its collection off-site, the library was able to remove more stacks on the remaining stack level and convert them to user spaces, a long-term goal for the library. Additional space on the mezzanine level had to be converted to replace lost study and conference room spaces. While this project did not match the recommended space plans for the library, it underscored the need for the library to think creatively about the future of its facility and to work toward a more cohesive master plan.

Visual memory loss and autobiographical amnesia: a case study.

Amnesia typically results from trauma to the medial temporal regions that coordinate activation among the disparate areas of cortex that represent the information that make up autobiographical memories. We proposed that amnesia should also result from damage to these regions, particularly regions that subserve long-term visual memory [Rubin, D. C., & Greenberg, D. L. (1998). Visual memory-deficit amnesia: A distinct amnesic presentation and etiology. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, 95, 5413-5416]. We previously found 11 such cases in the literature, and all 11 had amnesia. We now present a detailed investigation of one of these patients. M.S. suffers from long-term visual memory loss along with some semantic deficits; he also manifests a severe retrograde amnesia and moderate anterograde amnesia. The presentation of his amnesia differs from that of the typical medial-temporal or lateral-temporal amnesic; we suggest that his visual deficits may be contributing to his autobiographical amnesia.

Predictive Modeling of Loss-of-Heterozygosity Events in Yeast

During mitotic cell cycles, DNA experiences many types of endogenous and exogenous damaging agents that could potentially cause double strand breaks (DSB). In S. cerevisiae, DSBs are primarily repaired by mitotic recombination and as a result, could lead to loss-of-heterozygosity (LOH). Genetic recombination can happen in both meiosis and mitosis. While genome-wide distribution of meiotic recombination events has been intensively studied, mitotic recombination events have not been mapped unbiasedly throughout the genome until recently. Methods for selecting mitotic crossovers and mapping the positions of crossovers have recently been developed in our lab. Our current approach uses a diploid yeast strain that is heterozygous for about 55,000 SNPs, and employs SNP-Microarrays to map LOH events throughout the genome. These methods allow us to examine selected crossovers and unselected mitotic recombination events (crossover, noncrossover and BIR) at about 1 kb resolution across the genome. Using this method, we generated maps of spontaneous and UV-induced LOH events. In this study, we explore machine learning and variable selection techniques to build a predictive model for where the LOH events occur in the genome.

Randomly from the yeast genome, we simulated control tracts resembling the LOH tracts in terms of tract lengths and locations with respect to single-nucleotide-polymorphism positions. We then extracted roughly 1,100 features such as base compositions, histone modifications, presence of tandem repeats etc. and train classifiers to distinguish control tracts and LOH tracts. We found interesting features of good predictive values. We also found that with the current repertoire of features, the prediction is generally better for spontaneous LOH events than UV-induced LOH events.

Weight loss intervention for young adults using mobile technology: design and rationale of a randomized controlled trial - Cell Phone Intervention for You (CITY).

BACKGROUND: The obesity epidemic has spread to young adults, leading to significant public health implications later in adulthood. Intervention in early adulthood may be an effective public health strategy for reducing the long-term health impact of the epidemic. Few weight loss trials have been conducted in young adults. It is unclear what weight loss strategies are beneficial in this population. PURPOSE: To describe the design and rationale of the NHLBI-sponsored Cell Phone Intervention for You (CITY) study, which is a single center, randomized three-arm trial that compares the impact on weight loss of 1) a behavioral intervention that is delivered almost entirely via cell phone technology (Cell Phone group); and 2) a behavioral intervention delivered mainly through monthly personal coaching calls enhanced by self-monitoring via cell phone (Personal Coaching group), each compared to 3) a usual care, advice-only control condition. METHODS: A total of 365 community-dwelling overweight/obese adults aged 18-35 years were randomized to receive one of these three interventions for 24 months in parallel group design. Study personnel assessing outcomes were blinded to group assignment. The primary outcome is weight change at 24 [corrected] months. We hypothesize that each active intervention will cause more weight loss than the usual care condition. Study completion is anticipated in 2014. CONCLUSIONS: If effective, implementation of the CITY interventions could mitigate the alarming rates of obesity in young adults through promotion of weight loss. ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT01092364.