Using Bird Distributions to Assess Extinction Risk and Identify Conservation Priorities in Biodiversity Hotspots

Habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation threaten the World’s ecosystems and species. These, and other threats, will likely be exacerbated by climate change. Due to a limited budget for conservation, we are forced to prioritize a few areas over others. These places are selected based on their uniqueness and vulnerability. One of the most famous examples is the biodiversity hotspots: areas where large quantities of endemic species meet alarming rates of habitat loss. Most of these places are in the tropics, where species have smaller ranges, diversity is higher, and ecosystems are most threatened.

Species distributions are useful to understand ecological theory and evaluate extinction risk. Small-ranged species, or those endemic to one place, are more vulnerable to extinction than widely distributed species. However, current range maps often overestimate the distribution of species, including areas that are not within the suitable elevation or habitat for a species. Consequently, assessment of extinction risk using these maps could underestimate vulnerability.

In order to be effective in our quest to conserve the World’s most important places we must: 1) Translate global and national priorities into practical local actions, 2) Find synergies between biodiversity conservation and human welfare, 3) Evaluate the different dimensions of threats, in order to design effective conservation measures and prepare for future threats, and 4) Improve the methods used to evaluate species’ extinction risk and prioritize areas for conservation. The purpose of this dissertation is to address these points in Colombia and other global biodiversity hotspots.

In Chapter 2, I identified the global, strategic conservation priorities and then downscaled to practical local actions within the selected priorities in Colombia. I used existing range maps of 171 bird species to identify priority conservation areas that would protect the greatest number of species at risk in Colombia (endemic and small-ranged species). The Western Andes had the highest concentrations of such species—100 in total—but the lowest densities of national parks. I then adjusted the priorities for this region by refining these species ranges by selecting only areas of suitable elevation and remaining habitat. The estimated ranges of these species shrank by 18–100% after accounting for habitat and suitable elevation. Setting conservation priorities on the basis of currently available range maps excluded priority areas in the Western Andes and, by extension, likely elsewhere and for other taxa. By incorporating detailed maps of remaining natural habitats, I made practical recommendations for conservation actions. One recommendation was to restore forest connections to a patch of cloud forest about to become isolated from the main Andes.

For Chapter 3, I identified areas where bird conservation met ecosystem service protection in the Central Andes of Colombia. Inspired by the November 11th (2011) landslide event near Manizales, and the current poor results of Colombia’s Article 111 of Law 99 of 1993 as a conservation measure in this country, I set out to prioritize conservation and restoration areas where landslide prevention would complement bird conservation in the Central Andes. This area is one of the most biodiverse places on Earth, but also one of the most threatened. Using the case of the Rio Blanco Reserve, near Manizales, I identified areas for conservation where endemic and small-range bird diversity was high, and where landslide risk was also high. I further prioritized restoration areas by overlapping these conservation priorities with a forest cover map. Restoring forests in bare areas of high landslide risk and important bird diversity yields benefits for both biodiversity and people. I developed a simple landslide susceptibility model using slope, forest cover, aspect, and stream proximity. Using publicly available bird range maps, refined by elevation, I mapped concentrations of endemic and small-range bird species. I identified 1.54 km2 of potential restoration areas in the Rio Blanco Reserve, and 886 km2 in the Central Andes region. By prioritizing these areas, I facilitate the application of Article 111 which requires local and regional governments to invest in land purchases for the conservation of watersheds.

Chapter 4 dealt with elevational ranges of montane birds and the impact of lowland deforestation on their ranges in the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot. Using point counts and mist-nets, I surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400m. I compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analyzing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, I tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species’ elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species’ elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations.

In Chapter 5, I refine the ranges of 726 species from six biodiversity hotspots by suitable elevation and habitat. This set of 172 bird species for the Atlantic Forest, 138 for Central America, 100 for the Western Andes of Colombia, 57 for Madagascar, 102 for Sumatra, and 157 for Southeast Asia met the criteria for range size, endemism, threat, and forest use. Of these 586 species, the Red List deems 108 to be threatened: 15 critically endangered, 29 endangered, and 64 vulnerable. When ranges are refined by elevational limits and remaining forest cover, 10 of those critically endangered species have ranges < 100km2, but then so do 2 endangered species, seven vulnerable, and eight non-threatened ones. Similarly, 4 critically endangered species, 20 endangered, and 12 vulnerable species have refined ranges < 5000km2, but so do 66 non-threatened species. A striking 89% of these species I have classified in higher threat categories have <50% of their refined ranges inside protected areas. I find that for 43% of the species I assessed, refined range sizes fall within thresholds that typically have higher threat categories than their current assignments. I recommend these species for closer inspection by those who assess risk. These assessments are not only important on a species-by-species basis, but by combining distributions of threatened species, I create maps of conservation priorities. They differ significantly from those created from unrefined ranges.

The effect of involuntary job loss on smoking intensity and relapse.

AIMS: To assess the impact of involuntary job loss due to plant closure or layoff on relapse to smoking and smoking intensity among older workers. DESIGN, PARTICIPANTS, SAMPLE: Data come from the Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative survey of older Americans aged 51-61 in 1991 followed every 2 years beginning in 1992. The 3052 participants who were working at the initial wave and had any history of smoking comprise the main sample. METHODS: Primary outcomes are smoking relapse at wave 2 (1994) among baseline former smokers, and smoking quantity at wave 2 among baseline current smokers. As reported at the wave 2 follow-up, 6.8% of the sample experienced an involuntary job loss between waves 1 and 2. FINDINGS: Older workers have over two times greater odds of relapse subsequent to involuntary job loss than those who did not. Further, those who were current smokers prior to displacement that did not obtain new employment were found to be smoking more cigarettes, on average, post-job loss. CONCLUSIONS: The stress of job loss, along with other significant changes associated with leaving one's job, which would tend to increase cigarette consumption, must outweigh the financial hardship which would tend to reduce consumption. This highlights job loss as an important health risk factor for older smokers.

Conservation, duplication, and loss of the Tor signaling pathway in the fungal kingdom.

BACKGROUND: The nutrient-sensing Tor pathway governs cell growth and is conserved in nearly all eukaryotic organisms from unicellular yeasts to multicellular organisms, including humans. Tor is the target of the immunosuppressive drug rapamycin, which in complex with the prolyl isomerase FKBP12 inhibits Tor functions. Rapamycin is a gold standard drug for organ transplant recipients that was approved by the FDA in 1999 and is finding additional clinical indications as a chemotherapeutic and antiproliferative agent. Capitalizing on the plethora of recently sequenced genomes we have conducted comparative genomic studies to annotate the Tor pathway throughout the fungal kingdom and related unicellular opisthokonts, including Monosiga brevicollis, Salpingoeca rosetta, and Capsaspora owczarzaki. RESULTS: Interestingly, the Tor signaling cascade is absent in three microsporidian species with available genome sequences, the only known instance of a eukaryotic group lacking this conserved pathway. The microsporidia are obligate intracellular pathogens with highly reduced genomes, and we hypothesize that they lost the Tor pathway as they adapted and streamlined their genomes for intracellular growth in a nutrient-rich environment. Two TOR paralogs are present in several fungal species as a result of either a whole genome duplication or independent gene/segmental duplication events. One such event was identified in the amphibian pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a chytrid responsible for worldwide global amphibian declines and extinctions. CONCLUSIONS: The repeated independent duplications of the TOR gene in the fungal kingdom might reflect selective pressure acting upon this kinase that populates two proteinaceous complexes with different cellular roles. These comparative genomic analyses illustrate the evolutionary trajectory of a central nutrient-sensing cascade that enables diverse eukaryotic organisms to respond to their natural environments.

Unprecedented loss of ammonia assimilation capability in a urease-encoding bacterial mutualist.

BACKGROUND: Blochmannia are obligately intracellular bacterial mutualists of ants of the tribe Camponotini. Blochmannia perform key nutritional functions for the host, including synthesis of several essential amino acids. We used Illumina technology to sequence the genome of Blochmannia associated with Camponotus vafer. RESULTS: Although Blochmannia vafer retains many nutritional functions, it is missing glutamine synthetase (glnA), a component of the nitrogen recycling pathway encoded by the previously sequenced B. floridanus and B. pennsylvanicus. With the exception of Ureaplasma, B. vafer is the only sequenced bacterium to date that encodes urease but lacks the ability to assimilate ammonia into glutamine or glutamate. Loss of glnA occurred in a deletion hotspot near the putative replication origin. Overall, compared to the likely gene set of their common ancestor, 31 genes are missing or eroded in B. vafer, compared to 28 in B. floridanus and four in B. pennsylvanicus. Three genes (queA, visC and yggS) show convergent loss or erosion, suggesting relaxed selection for their functions. Eight B. vafer genes contain frameshifts in homopolymeric tracts that may be corrected by transcriptional slippage. Two of these encode DNA replication proteins: dnaX, which we infer is also frameshifted in B. floridanus, and dnaG. CONCLUSIONS: Comparing the B. vafer genome with B. pennsylvanicus and B. floridanus refines the core genes shared within the mutualist group, thereby clarifying functions required across ant host species. This third genome also allows us to track gene loss and erosion in a phylogenetic context to more fully understand processes of genome reduction.

Comparison of a reduced carbohydrate and reduced fat diet for LDL, HDL, and VLDL subclasses during 9-months of weight maintenance subsequent to weight loss.

OBJECTIVES: This study compared LDL, HDL, and VLDL subclasses in overweight or obese adults consuming either a reduced carbohydrate (RC) or reduced fat (RF) weight maintenance diet for 9 months following significant weight loss. METHODS: Thirty-five (21 RC; 14 RF) overweight or obese middle-aged adults completed a 1-year weight management clinic. Participants met weekly for the first six months and bi-weekly thereafter. Meetings included instruction for diet, physical activity, and behavior change related to weight management. Additionally, participants followed a liquid very low-energy diet of approximately 2092 kJ per day for the first three months of the study. Subsequently, participants followed a dietary plan for nine months that targeted a reduced percentage of carbohydrate (approximately 20%) or fat (approximately 30%) intake and an energy intake level calculated to maintain weight loss. Lipid subclasses using NMR spectroscopy were analyzed prior to weight loss and at multiple intervals during weight maintenance. RESULTS: Body weight change was not significantly different within or between groups during weight maintenance (p>0.05). The RC group showed significant increases in mean LDL size, large LDL, total HDL, large and small HDL, mean VLDL size, and large VLDL during weight maintenance while the RF group showed increases in total HDL, large and small HDL, total VLDL, and large, medium, and small VLDL (p<0.05). Group*time interactions were significant for large and medium VLDL (p>0.05). CONCLUSION: Some individual lipid subclasses improved in both dietary groups. Large and medium VLDL subclasses increased to a greater extent across weight maintenance in the RF group.

Missing data in randomized clinical trials for weight loss: scope of the problem, state of the field, and performance of statistical methods.

BACKGROUND: Dropouts and missing data are nearly-ubiquitous in obesity randomized controlled trails, threatening validity and generalizability of conclusions. Herein, we meta-analytically evaluate the extent of missing data, the frequency with which various analytic methods are employed to accommodate dropouts, and the performance of multiple statistical methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched PubMed and Cochrane databases (2000-2006) for articles published in English and manually searched bibliographic references. Articles of pharmaceutical randomized controlled trials with weight loss or weight gain prevention as major endpoints were included. Two authors independently reviewed each publication for inclusion. 121 articles met the inclusion criteria. Two authors independently extracted treatment, sample size, drop-out rates, study duration, and statistical method used to handle missing data from all articles and resolved disagreements by consensus. In the meta-analysis, drop-out rates were substantial with the survival (non-dropout) rates being approximated by an exponential decay curve (e(-lambdat)) where lambda was estimated to be .0088 (95% bootstrap confidence interval: .0076 to .0100) and t represents time in weeks. The estimated drop-out rate at 1 year was 37%. Most studies used last observation carried forward as the primary analytic method to handle missing data. We also obtained 12 raw obesity randomized controlled trial datasets for empirical analyses. Analyses of raw randomized controlled trial data suggested that both mixed models and multiple imputation performed well, but that multiple imputation may be more robust when missing data are extensive. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our analysis offers an equation for predictions of dropout rates useful for future study planning. Our raw data analyses suggests that multiple imputation is better than other methods for handling missing data in obesity randomized controlled trials, followed closely by mixed models. We suggest these methods supplant last observation carried forward as the primary method of analysis.

Eco-evolutionary trophic dynamics: loss of top predators drives trophic evolution and ecology of prey.

Ecosystems are being altered on a global scale by the extirpation of top predators. The ecological effects of predator removal have been investigated widely; however, predator removal can also change natural selection acting on prey, resulting in contemporary evolution. Here we tested the role of predator removal on the contemporary evolution of trophic traits in prey. We utilized a historical introduction experiment where Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata) were relocated from a site with predatory fishes to a site lacking predators. To assess the trophic consequences of predator release, we linked individual morphology (cranial, jaw, and body) to foraging performance. Our results show that predator release caused an increase in guppy density and a "sharpening" of guppy trophic traits, which enhanced food consumption rates. Predator release appears to have shifted natural selection away from predator escape ability and towards resource acquisition ability. Related diet and mesocosm studies suggest that this shift enhances the impact of guppies on lower trophic levels in a fashion nuanced by the omnivorous feeding ecology of the species. We conclude that extirpation of top predators may commonly select for enhanced feeding performance in prey, with important cascading consequences for communities and ecosystems.

Stable isotope ratios indicate diet and habitat use in New World monkeys.

This paper demonstrates the use of stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen in animal tissue for indicating aspects of species behavioral strategy. We analyzed hair from individuals representing four species of New World monkeys (Alouatta palliata, the mantled howler; Ateles geoffroyi, the spider monkey; Cebus capucinus, the capuchin; and Brachyteles arachnoides, the woolly-spider monkey or muriqui) for delta 13C and delta 15N using previously developed methods. There are no significant differences in either carbon or nitrogen ratios between sexes, sampling year, or year of analysis. Seasonal differences in delta 13C reached a low level of significance but do not affect general patterns. Variation within species was similar to that recorded previously within single individuals. The omega 13C data show a bimodal distribution with significant difference between the means. The two monkey populations living in an evergreen forest were similar to each other and different from the other two monkey populations that inhabited dry, deciduous forests. This bimodal distribution is independent of any particular species' diet and reflects the level of leaf cover in the two types of forest. The delta 15N data display three significantly different modes. The omnivorous capuchins were most positive reflecting a trophic level offset. The spider monkeys and the muriquis were similar to one another and significantly more positive than the howlers. This distribution among totally herbivorous species correlates with the ingestion of legumes by the howler monkey population. In combination, these data indicate that museum-curated primate material can be analyzed to yield information on forest cover and diet in populations and species lacking behavioral data.

Low-loss directional cloaks without superluminal velocity or magnetic response.

The possibility of making an optically large (many wavelengths in diameter) object appear invisible has been a subject of many recent studies. Exact invisibility scenarios for large (relative to the wavelength) objects involve (meta)materials with superluminal phase velocity [refractive index (RI) less than unity] and/or magnetic response. We introduce a new approximation applicable to certain device geometries in the eikonal limit: piecewise-uniform scaling of the RI. This transformation preserves the ray trajectories but leads to a uniform phase delay. We show how to take advantage of phase delays to achieve a limited (directional and wavelength-dependent) form of invisibility that does not require loss-ridden (meta)materials with superluminal phase velocities.

Measurements of Epidural Space Depth Using Preexisting CT Scans Correlate with Loss of Resistance Depth during Thoracic Epidural Catheter Placement.

Background. Thoracic epidural catheters provide the best quality postoperative pain relief for major abdominal and thoracic surgical procedures, but placement is one of the most challenging procedures in the repertoire of an anesthesiologist. Most patients presenting for a procedure that would benefit from a thoracic epidural catheter have already had high resolution imaging that may be useful to assist placement of a catheter. Methods. This retrospective study used data from 168 patients to examine the association and predictive power of epidural-skin distance (ESD) on computed tomography (CT) to determine loss of resistance depth acquired during epidural placement. Additionally, the ability of anesthesiologists to measure this distance was compared to a radiologist, who specializes in spine imaging. Results. There was a strong association between CT measurement and loss of resistance depth (P < 0.0001); the presence of morbid obesity (BMI > 35) changed this relationship (P = 0.007). The ability of anesthesiologists to make CT measurements was similar to a gold standard radiologist (all individual ICCs > 0.9). Conclusions. Overall, this study supports the examination of a recent CT scan to aid in the placement of a thoracic epidural catheter. Making use of these scans may lead to faster epidural placements, fewer accidental dural punctures, and better epidural blockade.

When the library is located in prime real estate: a case study on the loss of space from the Duke University Medical Center Library and Archives.

The Duke University Medical Center Library and Archives is located in the heart of the Duke Medicine campus, surrounded by Duke Hospital, ambulatory clinics, and numerous research facilities. Its location is considered prime real estate, given its adjacency to patient care, research, and educational activities. In 2005, the Duke University Library Space Planning Committee had recommended creating a learning center in the library that would support a variety of educational activities. However, the health system needed to convert the library's top floor into office space to make way for expansion of the hospital and cancer center. The library had only five months to plan the storage and consolidation of its journal and book collections, while working with the facilities design office and architect on the replacement of key user spaces on the top floor. Library staff worked together to develop plans for storing, weeding, and consolidating the collections and provided input into renovation plans for users spaces on its mezzanine level. The library lost 15,238 square feet (29%) of its net assignable square footage and a total of 16,897 (30%) gross square feet. This included 50% of the total space allotted to collections and over 15% of user spaces. The top-floor space now houses offices for Duke Medicine oncology faculty and staff. By storing a large portion of its collection off-site, the library was able to remove more stacks on the remaining stack level and convert them to user spaces, a long-term goal for the library. Additional space on the mezzanine level had to be converted to replace lost study and conference room spaces. While this project did not match the recommended space plans for the library, it underscored the need for the library to think creatively about the future of its facility and to work toward a more cohesive master plan.

Visual memory loss and autobiographical amnesia: a case study.

Amnesia typically results from trauma to the medial temporal regions that coordinate activation among the disparate areas of cortex that represent the information that make up autobiographical memories. We proposed that amnesia should also result from damage to these regions, particularly regions that subserve long-term visual memory [Rubin, D. C., & Greenberg, D. L. (1998). Visual memory-deficit amnesia: A distinct amnesic presentation and etiology. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, 95, 5413-5416]. We previously found 11 such cases in the literature, and all 11 had amnesia. We now present a detailed investigation of one of these patients. M.S. suffers from long-term visual memory loss along with some semantic deficits; he also manifests a severe retrograde amnesia and moderate anterograde amnesia. The presentation of his amnesia differs from that of the typical medial-temporal or lateral-temporal amnesic; we suggest that his visual deficits may be contributing to his autobiographical amnesia.

Predictive Modeling of Loss-of-Heterozygosity Events in Yeast

During mitotic cell cycles, DNA experiences many types of endogenous and exogenous damaging agents that could potentially cause double strand breaks (DSB). In S. cerevisiae, DSBs are primarily repaired by mitotic recombination and as a result, could lead to loss-of-heterozygosity (LOH). Genetic recombination can happen in both meiosis and mitosis. While genome-wide distribution of meiotic recombination events has been intensively studied, mitotic recombination events have not been mapped unbiasedly throughout the genome until recently. Methods for selecting mitotic crossovers and mapping the positions of crossovers have recently been developed in our lab. Our current approach uses a diploid yeast strain that is heterozygous for about 55,000 SNPs, and employs SNP-Microarrays to map LOH events throughout the genome. These methods allow us to examine selected crossovers and unselected mitotic recombination events (crossover, noncrossover and BIR) at about 1 kb resolution across the genome. Using this method, we generated maps of spontaneous and UV-induced LOH events. In this study, we explore machine learning and variable selection techniques to build a predictive model for where the LOH events occur in the genome.

Randomly from the yeast genome, we simulated control tracts resembling the LOH tracts in terms of tract lengths and locations with respect to single-nucleotide-polymorphism positions. We then extracted roughly 1,100 features such as base compositions, histone modifications, presence of tandem repeats etc. and train classifiers to distinguish control tracts and LOH tracts. We found interesting features of good predictive values. We also found that with the current repertoire of features, the prediction is generally better for spontaneous LOH events than UV-induced LOH events.

Weight loss intervention for young adults using mobile technology: design and rationale of a randomized controlled trial - Cell Phone Intervention for You (CITY).

BACKGROUND: The obesity epidemic has spread to young adults, leading to significant public health implications later in adulthood. Intervention in early adulthood may be an effective public health strategy for reducing the long-term health impact of the epidemic. Few weight loss trials have been conducted in young adults. It is unclear what weight loss strategies are beneficial in this population. PURPOSE: To describe the design and rationale of the NHLBI-sponsored Cell Phone Intervention for You (CITY) study, which is a single center, randomized three-arm trial that compares the impact on weight loss of 1) a behavioral intervention that is delivered almost entirely via cell phone technology (Cell Phone group); and 2) a behavioral intervention delivered mainly through monthly personal coaching calls enhanced by self-monitoring via cell phone (Personal Coaching group), each compared to 3) a usual care, advice-only control condition. METHODS: A total of 365 community-dwelling overweight/obese adults aged 18-35 years were randomized to receive one of these three interventions for 24 months in parallel group design. Study personnel assessing outcomes were blinded to group assignment. The primary outcome is weight change at 24 [corrected] months. We hypothesize that each active intervention will cause more weight loss than the usual care condition. Study completion is anticipated in 2014. CONCLUSIONS: If effective, implementation of the CITY interventions could mitigate the alarming rates of obesity in young adults through promotion of weight loss. ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT01092364.