Confidence intervals for half-life deviations from purchasing power parity

Existing point estimates of half-life deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP), around 3-5 years, suggest that the speed of convergence is extremely slow. This article assesses the degree of uncertainty around these point estimates by using local-to-unity asymptotic theory to construct confidence intervals that are robust to high persistence in small samples. The empirical evidence suggests that the lower bound of the confidence interval is between four and eight quarters for most currencies, which is not inconsistent with traditional price-stickiness explanations. However, the upper bounds are infinity for all currencies, so we cannot provide conclusive evidence in favor of PPP either. © 2005 American Statistical Association.

Prediction in dynamic models with time-dependent conditional variances

This paper considers forecasting the conditional mean and variance from a single-equation dynamic model with autocorrelated disturbances following an ARMA process, and innovations with time-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity as represented by a linear GARCH process. Expressions for the minimum MSE predictor and the conditional MSE are presented. We also derive the formula for all the theoretical moments of the prediction error distribution from a general dynamic model with GARCH(1, 1) innovations. These results are then used in the construction of ex ante prediction confidence intervals by means of the Cornish-Fisher asymptotic expansion. An empirical example relating to the uncertainty of the expected depreciation of foreign exchange rates illustrates the usefulness of the results. © 1992.

Variation in the type and frequency of postoperative invasive Staphylococcus aureus infections according to type of surgical procedure.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the epidemiological characteristics of postoperative invasive Staphylococcus aureus infection following 4 types of major surgical procedures.design. Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Eleven hospitals (9 community hospitals and 2 tertiary care hospitals) in North Carolina and Virginia. PATIENTS: Adults undergoing orthopedic, neurosurgical, cardiothoracic, and plastic surgical procedures. METHODS: We used previously validated, prospectively collected surgical surveillance data for surgical site infection and microbiological data for bloodstream infection. The study period was 2003 through 2006. We defined invasive S. aureus infection as either nonsuperficial incisional surgical site infection or bloodstream infection. Nonparametric bootstrapping was used to generate 95% confidence intervals (CIs). P values were generated using the Pearson chi2 test, Student t test, or Wilcoxon rank-sum test, as appropriate. RESULTS: In total, 81,267 patients underwent 96,455 procedures during the study period. The overall incidence of invasive S. aureus infection was 0.47 infections per 100 procedures (95% CI, 0.43-0.52); 227 (51%) of 446 infections were due to methicillin-resistant S.aureus. Invasive S. aureus infection was more common after cardiothoracic procedures (incidence, 0.79 infections per 100 procedures [95%CI, 0.62-0.97]) than after orthopedic procedures (0.37 infections per 100 procedures [95% CI, 0.32-0.42]), neurosurgical procedures (0.62 infections per 100 procedures [95% CI, 0.53-0.72]), or plastic surgical procedures (0.32 infections per 100 procedures [95% CI, 0.17-0.47]) (P < .001). Similarly, S. aureus bloodstream infection was most common after cardiothoracic procedures (incidence, 0.57 infections per 100 procedures [95% CI, 0.43-0.72]; P < .001, compared with other procedure types), comprising almost three-quarters of the invasive S. aureus infections after these procedures. The highest rate of surgical site infection was observed after neurosurgical procedures (incidence, 0.50 infections per 100 procedures [95% CI, 0.42-0.59]; P < .001, compared with other procedure types), comprising 80% of invasive S.aureus infections after these procedures. CONCLUSION: The frequency and type of postoperative invasive S. aureus infection varied significantly across procedure types. The highest risk procedures, such as cardiothoracic procedures, should be targeted for ongoing preventative interventions.

Using fractal downscaling of satellite precipitation products for hydrometeorological applications

The objective of spatial downscaling strategies is to increase the information content of coarse datasets at smaller scales. In the case of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) for hydrological applications, the goal is to close the scale gap between the spatial resolution of coarse datasets (e.g., gridded satellite precipitation products at resolution L × L) and the high resolution (l × l; L»l) necessary to capture the spatial features that determine spatial variability of water flows and water stores in the landscape. In essence, the downscaling process consists of weaving subgrid-scale heterogeneity over a desired range of wavelengths in the original field. The defining question is, which properties, statistical and otherwise, of the target field (the known observable at the desired spatial resolution) should be matched, with the caveat that downscaling methods be as a general as possible and therefore ideally without case-specific constraints and/or calibration requirements? Here, the attention is focused on two simple fractal downscaling methods using iterated functions systems (IFS) and fractal Brownian surfaces (FBS) that meet this requirement. The two methods were applied to disaggregate spatially 27 summertime convective storms in the central United States during 2007 at three consecutive times (1800, 2100, and 0000 UTC, thus 81 fields overall) from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) version 6 (V6) 3B42 precipitation product (~25-km grid spacing) to the same resolution as the NCEP stage IV products (~4-km grid spacing). Results from bilinear interpolation are used as the control. A fundamental distinction between IFS and FBS is that the latter implies a distribution of downscaled fields and thus an ensemble solution, whereas the former provides a single solution. The downscaling effectiveness is assessed using fractal measures (the spectral exponent β, fractal dimension D, Hurst coefficient H, and roughness amplitude R) and traditional operational scores statistics scores [false alarm rate (FR), probability of detection (PD), threat score (TS), and Heidke skill score (HSS)], as well as bias and the root-mean-square error (RMSE). The results show that both IFS and FBS fractal interpolation perform well with regard to operational skill scores, and they meet the additional requirement of generating structurally consistent fields. Furthermore, confidence intervals can be directly generated from the FBS ensemble. The results were used to diagnose errors relevant for hydrometeorological applications, in particular a spatial displacement with characteristic length of at least 50 km (2500 km2) in the location of peak rainfall intensities for the cases studied. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.

Variation in use of surveillance colonoscopy among colorectal cancer survivors in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Clinical practice guidelines recommend colonoscopies at regular intervals for colorectal cancer (CRC) survivors. Using data from a large, multi-regional, population-based cohort, we describe the rate of surveillance colonoscopy and its association with geographic, sociodemographic, clinical, and health services characteristics. METHODS: We studied CRC survivors enrolled in the Cancer Care Outcomes Research and Surveillance (CanCORS) study. Eligible survivors were diagnosed between 2003 and 2005, had curative surgery for CRC, and were alive without recurrences 14 months after surgery with curative intent. Data came from patient interviews and medical record abstraction. We used a multivariate logit model to identify predictors of colonoscopy use. RESULTS: Despite guidelines recommending surveillance, only 49% of the 1423 eligible survivors received a colonoscopy within 14 months after surgery. We observed large regional differences (38% to 57%) across regions. Survivors who received screening colonoscopy were more likely to: have colon cancer than rectal cancer (OR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.05-1.90); have visited a primary care physician (OR = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.14-1.82); and received adjuvant chemotherapy (OR = 1.75, 95% CI: 1.27-2.41). Compared to survivors with no comorbidities, survivors with moderate or severe comorbidities were less likely to receive surveillance colonoscopy (OR = 0.69, 95% CI: 0.49-0.98 and OR = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.29-0.66, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Despite guidelines, more than half of CRC survivors did not receive surveillance colonoscopy within 14 months of surgery, with substantial variation by site of care. The association of primary care visits and adjuvant chemotherapy use suggests that access to care following surgery affects cancer surveillance.

Bacterial vaginosis as a risk factor for high-grade cervical lesions and cancer in HIV-seropositive women.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of bacterial vaginosis (BV) on the risk of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) among HIV-seropositive women. METHODS: A hospital-based prospective cohort study of HIV-seropositive women was conducted in Johannesburg, South Africa from January 2005 to September 2009. Multivariate log-binomial and Poisson regressions were used to estimate prevalence and rate ratios, respectively. RESULTS: Among 1954 HIV-seropositive women, the baseline prevalence of HSIL was 17%. BV prevalence was high (54%) and showed no association with prevalence of HSIL (adjusted prevalence ratio, 1.12; 95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.92-1.35) nor with cervical lesion progression at follow-up visit (n=503) (adjusted rate ratio: 1.00; 95% CI, 0.65-1.53). CONCLUSION: Among HIV-seropositive women, BV was not associated with an increased risk of HSIL or cervical lesion progression.

Genetic variants in IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-3, and adiponectin genes and colon cancer risk in African Americans and Whites.

PURPOSE: Evaluating genetic susceptibility may clarify effects of known environmental factors and also identify individuals at high risk. We evaluated the association of four insulin-related pathway gene polymorphisms in insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-I) (CA)( n ) repeat, insulin-like growth factor-2 (IGF-II) (rs680), insulin-like growth factor-binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) (rs2854744), and adiponectin (APM1 rs1501299) with colon cancer risk, as well as relationships with circulating IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-3, and C-peptide in a population-based study. METHODS: Participants were African Americans (231 cases and 306 controls) and Whites (297 cases, 530 controls). Consenting subjects provided blood specimens and lifestyle/diet information. Genotyping for all genes except IGF-I was performed by the 5'-exonuclease (Taqman) assay. The IGF-I (CA)(n) repeat was assayed by PCR and fragment analysis. Circulating proteins were measured by enzyme immunoassays. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by logistic regression. RESULTS: The IGF-I (CA)( 19 ) repeat was higher in White controls (50 %) than African American controls (31 %). Whites homozygous for the IGF-I (CA)(19) repeat had a nearly twofold increase in risk of colon cancer (OR = 1.77; 95 % CI = 1.15-2.73), but not African Americans (OR = 0.73, 95 % CI 0.50-1.51). We observed an inverse association between the IGF-II Apa1 A-variant and colon cancer risk (OR = 0.49, 95 % CI 0.28-0.88) in Whites only. Carrying the IGFBP-3 variant alleles was associated with lower IGFBP-3 protein levels, a difference most pronounced in Whites (p-trend <0.05). CONCLUSIONS: These results support an association between insulin pathway-related genes and elevated colon cancer risk in Whites but not in African Americans.

Nurse-led behavioral management of diabetes and hypertension in community practices: a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Several trials have demonstrated the efficacy of nurse telephone case management for diabetes (DM) and hypertension (HTN) in academic or vertically integrated systems. Little is known about the real-world potency of these interventions. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of nurse behavioral management of DM and HTN in community practices among patients with both diseases. DESIGN: The study was designed as a patient-level randomized controlled trial. PARTICIPANTS: Participants included adult patients with both type 2 DM and HTN who were receiving care at one of nine community fee-for-service practices. Subjects were required to have inadequately controlled DM (hemoglobin A1c [A1c] ≥ 7.5%) but could have well-controlled HTN. INTERVENTIONS: All patients received a call from a nurse experienced in DM and HTN management once every two months over a period of two years, for a total of 12 calls. Intervention patients received tailored DM- and HTN- focused behavioral content; control patients received non-tailored, non-interactive information regarding health issues unrelated to DM and HTN (e.g., skin cancer prevention). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Systolic blood pressure (SBP) and A1c were co-primary outcomes, measured at 6, 12, and 24 months; 24 months was the primary time point. RESULTS: Three hundred seventy-seven subjects were enrolled; 193 were randomized to intervention, 184 to control. Subjects were 55% female and 50% white; the mean baseline A1c was 9.1% (SD = 1%) and mean SBP was 142 mmHg (SD = 20). Eighty-two percent of scheduled interviews were conducted; 69% of intervention patients and 70% of control patients reached the 24-month time point. Expressing model estimated differences as (intervention--control), at 24 months, intervention patients had similar A1c [diff = 0.1 %, 95 % CI (-0.3, 0.5), p = 0.51] and SBP [diff = -0.9 mmHg, 95% CI (-5.4, 3.5), p = 0.68] values compared to control patients. Likewise, DBP (diff = 0.4 mmHg, p = 0.76), weight (diff = 0.3 kg, p = 0.80), and physical activity levels (diff = 153 MET-min/week, p = 0.41) were similar between control and intervention patients. Results were also similar at the 6- and 12-month time points. CONCLUSIONS: In nine community fee-for-service practices, telephonic nurse case management did not lead to improvement in A1c or SBP. Gains seen in telephonic behavioral self-management interventions in optimal settings may not translate to the wider range of primary care settings.

Psychiatric correlates of snuff and chewing tobacco use.

Compared to the association between cigarette smoking and psychiatric disorders, relatively little is known about the relationship between smokeless tobacco use and psychiatric disorders. To identify the psychiatric correlates of smokeless tobacco use, the analysis used a national representative sample from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) wave 1. Smokeless tobacco use was classified as exclusive snuff use, exclusive chewing tobacco, and dual use of both snuff and chewing tobacco at some time in the smokeless tobacco user's life. Lifetime psychiatric disorders were obtained via structured diagnostic interviews. The results show that the prevalence of lifetime exclusive snuff use, exclusive chewing tobacco, and dual use of both snuff and chewing tobacco was 2.16%, 2.52%, and 2.79%, respectively. After controlling for sociodemographic variables and cigarette smoking, the odds of exclusive chewing tobacco in persons with panic disorder and specific phobia were 1.53 and 1.41 times the odds in persons without those disorders, respectively. The odds of exclusive snuff use, exclusive chewing tobacco, and dual use of both products for individuals with alcohol use disorder were 1.97, 2.01, and 2.99 times the odds for those without alcohol use disorder, respectively. Respondents with cannabis use disorder were 1.44 times more likely to use snuff exclusively than those without cannabis use disorder. Respondents with inhalant/solvent use disorder were associated with 3.33 times the odds of exclusive chewing tobacco. In conclusion, this study highlights the specific links of anxiety disorder, alcohol, cannabis, and inhalant/solvent use disorders with different types of smokeless tobacco use.

Association of Common Genetic Polymorphisms with Melanoma Patient IL-12p40 Blood Levels, Risk, and Outcomes.

Recent investigation has identified association of IL-12p40 blood levels with melanoma recurrence and patient survival. No studies have investigated associations of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with melanoma patient IL-12p40 blood levels or their potential contributions to melanoma susceptibility or patient outcome. In the current study, 818,237 SNPs were available for 1,804 melanoma cases and 1,026 controls. IL-12p40 blood levels were assessed among 573 cases (discovery), 249 cases (case validation), and 299 controls (control validation). SNPs were evaluated for association with log[IL-12p40] levels in the discovery data set and replicated in two validation data sets, and significant SNPs were assessed for association with melanoma susceptibility and patient outcomes. The most significant SNP associated with log[IL-12p40] was in the IL-12B gene region (rs6897260, combined P=9.26 × 10(-38)); this single variant explained 13.1% of variability in log[IL-12p40]. The most significant SNP in EBF1 was rs6895454 (combined P=2.24 × 10(-9)). A marker in IL12B was associated with melanoma susceptibility (rs3213119, multivariate P=0.0499; OR=1.50, 95% CI 1.00-2.24), whereas a marker in EBF1 was associated with melanoma-specific survival in advanced-stage patients (rs10515789, multivariate P=0.02; HR=1.93, 95% CI 1.11-3.35). Both EBF1 and IL12B strongly regulate IL-12p40 blood levels, and IL-12p40 polymorphisms may contribute to melanoma susceptibility and influence patient outcome.

Evaluating marker-guided treatment selection strategies

© 2014, The International Biometric Society.A potential venue to improve healthcare efficiency is to effectively tailor individualized treatment strategies by incorporating patient level predictor information such as environmental exposure, biological, and genetic marker measurements. Many useful statistical methods for deriving individualized treatment rules (ITR) have become available in recent years. Prior to adopting any ITR in clinical practice, it is crucial to evaluate its value in improving patient outcomes. Existing methods for quantifying such values mainly consider either a single marker or semi-parametric methods that are subject to bias under model misspecification. In this article, we consider a general setting with multiple markers and propose a two-step robust method to derive ITRs and evaluate their values. We also propose procedures for comparing different ITRs, which can be used to quantify the incremental value of new markers in improving treatment selection. While working models are used in step I to approximate optimal ITRs, we add a layer of calibration to guard against model misspecification and further assess the value of the ITR non-parametrically, which ensures the validity of the inference. To account for the sampling variability of the estimated rules and their corresponding values, we propose a resampling procedure to provide valid confidence intervals for the value functions as well as for the incremental value of new markers for treatment selection. Our proposals are examined through extensive simulation studies and illustrated with the data from a clinical trial that studies the effects of two drug combinations on HIV-1 infected patients.

Outcomes and Predictors of Mortality in Neurosurgical Patients at Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital

Background:

Knowing the scope of neurosurgical disease at Mbarara Hospital is critical for infrastructure planning, education and training. In this study, we aim to evaluate the neurosurgical outcomes and identify predictors of mortality in order to potentiate platforms for more effective interventions and inform future research efforts at Mbarara Hospital.

Methods:

This is retrospective chart review including patients of all ages with a neurosurgical disease or injury presenting to Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital (MRRH) between January 2012 to September 2015. Descriptive statistics were presented. A univariate analysis was used to obtain the odds ratios of mortality and 95% confidence intervals. Predictors of mortality were determined using multivariate logistic regression model.

Results:

A total of 1876 charts were reviewed. Of these, 1854 (had complete data and were?) were included in the analysis. The overall mortality rate was 12.75%; the mortality rates among all persons who underwent a neurosurgical procedure was 9.72%, and was 13.68% among those who did not undergo a neurosurgical procedure. Over 50% of patients were between 19 and 40 years old and the majority of were males (76.10%). The overall median length of stay was 5 days. Of all neurosurgical admissions, 87% were trauma patients. In comparison to mild head injury, closed head injury and intracranial hematoma patients were 5 (95% CI: 3.77, 8.26) and 2.5 times (95% CI: 1.64,3.98) more likely to die respectively. Procedure and diagnostic imaging were independent negative predictors of mortality (P <0.05). While age, ICU admission, admission GCS were positive predictors of mortality (P <0.05).

Conclusions:

The majority of hospital admissions were TBI patients, with RTIs being the most common mechanism of injury. Age, ICU admission, admission GCS, diagnostic imaging and undergoing surgery were independent predictors of mortality. Going forward, further exploration of patient characteristics is necessary to fully describe mortality outcomes and implement resource appropriate interventions that ultimately improve morbidity and mortality.