On the Advancement of Probabilistic Models of Decompression Sickness

The work presented in this dissertation is focused on applying engineering methods to develop and explore probabilistic survival models for the prediction of decompression sickness in US NAVY divers. Mathematical modeling, computational model development, and numerical optimization techniques were employed to formulate and evaluate the predictive quality of models fitted to empirical data. In Chapters 1 and 2 we present general background information relevant to the development of probabilistic models applied to predicting the incidence of decompression sickness. The remainder of the dissertation introduces techniques developed in an effort to improve the predictive quality of probabilistic decompression models and to reduce the difficulty of model parameter optimization.

The first project explored seventeen variations of the hazard function using a well-perfused parallel compartment model. Models were parametrically optimized using the maximum likelihood technique. Model performance was evaluated using both classical statistical methods and model selection techniques based on information theory. Optimized model parameters were overall similar to those of previously published Results indicated that a novel hazard function definition that included both ambient pressure scaling and individually fitted compartment exponent scaling terms.

We developed ten pharmacokinetic compartmental models that included explicit delay mechanics to determine if predictive quality could be improved through the inclusion of material transfer lags. A fitted discrete delay parameter augmented the inflow to the compartment systems from the environment. Based on the observation that symptoms are often reported after risk accumulation begins for many of our models, we hypothesized that the inclusion of delays might improve correlation between the model predictions and observed data. Model selection techniques identified two models as having the best overall performance, but comparison to the best performing model without delay and model selection using our best identified no delay pharmacokinetic model both indicated that the delay mechanism was not statistically justified and did not substantially improve model predictions.

Our final investigation explored parameter bounding techniques to identify parameter regions for which statistical model failure will not occur. When a model predicts a no probability of a diver experiencing decompression sickness for an exposure that is known to produce symptoms, statistical model failure occurs. Using a metric related to the instantaneous risk, we successfully identify regions where model failure will not occur and identify the boundaries of the region using a root bounding technique. Several models are used to demonstrate the techniques, which may be employed to reduce the difficulty of model optimization for future investigations.

Structure maps for hcp metals from first-principles calculations

The ability to predict the existence and crystal type of ordered structures of materials from their components is a major challenge of current materials research. Empirical methods use experimental data to construct structure maps and make predictions based on clustering of simple physical parameters. Their usefulness depends on the availability of reliable data over the entire parameter space. Recent development of high-throughput methods opens the possibility to enhance these empirical structure maps by ab initio calculations in regions of the parameter space where the experimental evidence is lacking or not well characterized. In this paper we construct enhanced maps for the binary alloys of hcp metals, where the experimental data leaves large regions of poorly characterized systems believed to be phase separating. In these enhanced maps, the clusters of noncompound-forming systems are much smaller than indicated by the empirical results alone. © 2010 The American Physical Society.

Similar T-cell immune responses induced by group M consensus env immunogens with wild-type or minimum consensus variable regions.

Consensus HIV-1 genes can decrease the genetic distances between candidate immunogens and field virus strains. To ensure the functionality and optimal presentation of immunologic epitopes, we generated two group-M consensus env genes that contain variable regions either from a wild-type B/C recombinant virus isolate (CON6) or minimal consensus elements (CON-S) in the V1, V2, V4, and V5 regions. C57BL/6 and BALB/c mice were primed twice with CON6, CON-S, and subtype control (92UG37_A and HXB2/Bal_B) DNA and boosted with recombinant vaccinia virus (rVV). Mean antibody titers against 92UG37_A, 89.6_B, 96ZM651_C, CON6, and CON-S Env protein were determined. Both CON6 and CON-S induced higher mean antibody titers against several of the proteins, as compared with the subtype controls. However, no significant differences were found in mean antibody titers in animals immunized with CON6 or CON-S. Cellular immune responses were measured by using five complete Env overlapping peptide sets: subtype A (92UG37_A), subtype B (MN_B, 89.6_B and SF162_B), and subtype C (Chn19_C). The intensity of the induced cellular responses was measured by using pooled Env peptides; T-cell epitopes were identified by using matrix peptide pools and individual peptides. No significant differences in T-cell immune-response intensities were noted between CON6 and CON-S immunized BALB/c and C57BL/6 mice. In BALB/c mice, 10 and eight nonoverlapping T-cell epitopes were identified in CON6 and CON-S, whereas eight epitopes were identified in 92UG37_A and HXB2/BAL_B. In C57BL/6 mice, nine and six nonoverlapping T-cell epitopes were identified after immunization with CON6 and CON-S, respectively, whereas only four and three were identified in 92UG37_A and HXB2/BAL_B, respectively. When combined together from both mouse strains, 18 epitopes were identified. The group M artificial consensus env genes, CON6 and CON-S, were equally immunogenic in breadth and intensity for inducing humoral and cellular immune responses.

Fermion bag approach to lattice field theories

We propose a new approach to the fermion sign problem in systems where there is a coupling U such that when it is infinite the fermions are paired into bosons, and there is no fermion permutation sign to worry about. We argue that as U becomes finite, fermions are liberated but are naturally confined to regions which we refer to as fermion bags. The fermion sign problem is then confined to these bags and may be solved using the determinantal trick. In the parameter regime where the fermion bags are small and their typical size does not grow with the system size, construction of Monte Carlo methods that are far more efficient than conventional algorithms should be possible. In the region where the fermion bags grow with system size, the fermion bag approach continues to provide an alternative approach to the problem but may lose its main advantage in terms of efficiency. The fermion bag approach also provides new insights and solutions to sign problems. A natural solution to the "silver blaze problem" also emerges. Using the three-dimensional massless lattice Thirring model as an example, we introduce the fermion bag approach and demonstrate some of these features. We compute the critical exponents at the quantum phase transition and find ν=0.87(2) and η=0.62(2). © 2010 The American Physical Society.

Nonlinear parameter retrieval from three- and four-wave mixing in metamaterials

We present a generalized nonlinear susceptibility retrieval method for metamaterials based on transfer matrices and valid in the nondepleted pump approximation. We construct a general formalism to describe the transfer matrix method for nonlinear media and apply it to the processes of three- and four-wave mixing. The accuracy of this approach is verified via finite element simulations. The method is then reversed to give a set of equations for retrieving the nonlinear susceptibility. Finally, we apply the proposed retrieval operation to a three-wave mixing transmission experiment performed on a varactor loaded split ring resonator metamaterial sample and find quantitative agreement with an analytical effective medium theory model. © 2010 The American Physical Society.

Cholera in Haiti and other Caribbean regions, 19th century.

Medical journals and other sources do not show evidence that cholera occurred in Haiti before 2010, despite the devastating effect of this disease in the Caribbean region in the 19th century. Cholera occurred in Cuba in 1833-1834; in Jamaica, Cuba, Puerto Rico, St. Thomas, St. Lucia, St. Kitts, Nevis, Trinidad, the Bahamas, St. Vincent, Granada, Anguilla, St. John, Tortola, the Turks and Caicos, the Grenadines (Carriacou and Petite Martinique), and possibly Antigua in 1850-1856; and in Guadeloupe, Cuba, St. Thomas, the Dominican Republic, Dominica, Martinique, and Marie Galante in 1865-1872. Conditions associated with slavery and colonial military control were absent in independent Haiti. Clustered populations, regular influx of new persons, and close quarters of barracks living contributed to spread of cholera in other Caribbean locations. We provide historical accounts of the presence and spread of cholera epidemics in Caribbean islands.

Functional parcellation of attentional control regions of the brain.

Recently, a number of investigators have examined the neural loci of psychological processes enabling the control of visual spatial attention using cued-attention paradigms in combination with event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging. Findings from these studies have provided strong evidence for the involvement of a fronto-parietal network in attentional control. In the present study, we build upon this previous work to further investigate these attentional control systems. In particular, we employed additional controls for nonattentional sensory and interpretative aspects of cue processing to determine whether distinct regions in the fronto-parietal network are involved in different aspects of cue processing, such as cue-symbol interpretation and attentional orienting. In addition, we used shorter cue-target intervals that were closer to those used in the behavioral and event-related potential cueing literatures. Twenty participants performed a cued spatial attention task while brain activity was recorded with functional magnetic resonance imaging. We found functional specialization for different aspects of cue processing in the lateral and medial subregions of the frontal and parietal cortex. In particular, the medial subregions were more specific to the orienting of visual spatial attention, while the lateral subregions were associated with more general aspects of cue processing, such as cue-symbol interpretation. Additional cue-related effects included differential activations in midline frontal regions and pretarget enhancements in the thalamus and early visual cortical areas.

Regions of the alpha 1-adrenergic receptor involved in coupling to phosphatidylinositol hydrolysis and enhanced sensitivity of biological function.

Regions of the hamster alpha 1-adrenergic receptor (alpha 1 AR) that are important in GTP-binding protein (G protein)-mediated activation of phospholipase C were determined by studying the biological functions of mutant receptors constructed by recombinant DNA techniques. A chimeric receptor consisting of the beta 2-adrenergic receptor (beta 2AR) into which the putative third cytoplasmic loop of the alpha 1AR had been placed activated phosphatidylinositol metabolism as effectively as the native alpha 1AR, as did a truncated alpha 1AR lacking the last 47 residues in its cytoplasmic tail. Substitutions of beta 2AR amino acid sequence in the intermediate portions of the third cytoplasmic loop of the alpha 1AR or at the N-terminal portion of the cytoplasmic tail caused marked decreases in receptor coupling to phospholipase C. Conservative substitutions of two residues in the C terminus of the third cytoplasmic loop (Ala293----Leu, Lys290----His) increased the potency of agonists for stimulating phosphatidylinositol metabolism by up to 2 orders of magnitude. These data indicate (i) that the regions of the alpha 1AR that determine coupling to phosphatidylinositol metabolism are similar to those previously shown to be involved in coupling of beta 2AR to adenylate cyclase stimulation and (ii) that point mutations of a G-protein-coupled receptor can cause remarkable increases in sensitivity of biological response.

A Dynamic Directional Model for Effective Brain Connectivity using Electrocorticographic (ECoG) Time Series.

We introduce a dynamic directional model (DDM) for studying brain effective connectivity based on intracranial electrocorticographic (ECoG) time series. The DDM consists of two parts: a set of differential equations describing neuronal activity of brain components (state equations), and observation equations linking the underlying neuronal states to observed data. When applied to functional MRI or EEG data, DDMs usually have complex formulations and thus can accommodate only a few regions, due to limitations in spatial resolution and/or temporal resolution of these imaging modalities. In contrast, we formulate our model in the context of ECoG data. The combined high temporal and spatial resolution of ECoG data result in a much simpler DDM, allowing investigation of complex connections between many regions. To identify functionally segregated sub-networks, a form of biologically economical brain networks, we propose the Potts model for the DDM parameters. The neuronal states of brain components are represented by cubic spline bases and the parameters are estimated by minimizing a log-likelihood criterion that combines the state and observation equations. The Potts model is converted to the Potts penalty in the penalized regression approach to achieve sparsity in parameter estimation, for which a fast iterative algorithm is developed. The methods are applied to an auditory ECoG dataset.