Confidence intervals for half-life deviations from purchasing power parity

Existing point estimates of half-life deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP), around 3-5 years, suggest that the speed of convergence is extremely slow. This article assesses the degree of uncertainty around these point estimates by using local-to-unity asymptotic theory to construct confidence intervals that are robust to high persistence in small samples. The empirical evidence suggests that the lower bound of the confidence interval is between four and eight quarters for most currencies, which is not inconsistent with traditional price-stickiness explanations. However, the upper bounds are infinity for all currencies, so we cannot provide conclusive evidence in favor of PPP either. © 2005 American Statistical Association.

Differences in mismatch responses to vowels and musical intervals: MEG evidence.

We investigated the electrophysiological response to matched two-formant vowels and two-note musical intervals, with the goal of examining whether music is processed differently from language in early cortical responses. Using magnetoencephalography (MEG), we compared the mismatch-response (MMN/MMF, an early, pre-attentive difference-detector occurring approximately 200 ms post-onset) to musical intervals and vowels composed of matched frequencies. Participants heard blocks of two stimuli in a passive oddball paradigm in one of three conditions: sine waves, piano tones and vowels. In each condition, participants heard two-formant vowels or musical intervals whose frequencies were 11, 12, or 24 semitones apart. In music, 12 semitones and 24 semitones are perceived as highly similar intervals (one and two octaves, respectively), while in speech 12 semitones and 11 semitones formant separations are perceived as highly similar (both variants of the vowel in 'cut'). Our results indicate that the MMN response mirrors the perceptual one: larger MMNs were elicited for the 12-11 pairing in the music conditions than in the language condition; conversely, larger MMNs were elicited to the 12-24 pairing in the language condition that in the music conditions, suggesting that within 250 ms of hearing complex auditory stimuli, the neural computation of similarity, just as the behavioral one, differs significantly depending on whether the context is music or speech.

Prediction in dynamic models with time-dependent conditional variances

This paper considers forecasting the conditional mean and variance from a single-equation dynamic model with autocorrelated disturbances following an ARMA process, and innovations with time-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity as represented by a linear GARCH process. Expressions for the minimum MSE predictor and the conditional MSE are presented. We also derive the formula for all the theoretical moments of the prediction error distribution from a general dynamic model with GARCH(1, 1) innovations. These results are then used in the construction of ex ante prediction confidence intervals by means of the Cornish-Fisher asymptotic expansion. An empirical example relating to the uncertainty of the expected depreciation of foreign exchange rates illustrates the usefulness of the results. © 1992.

A cross-site, comparative effectiveness study of an integrated HIV and substance use treatment program.

Co-occurrence of HIV and substance abuse is associated with poor outcomes for HIV-related health and substance use. Integration of substance use and medical care holds promise for HIV patients, yet few integrated treatment models have been reported. Most of the reported models lack data on treatment outcomes in diverse settings. This study examined the substance use outcomes of an integrated treatment model for patients with both HIV and substance use at three different clinics. Sites differed by type and degree of integration, with one integrated academic medical center, one co-located academic medical center, and one co-located community health center. Participants (n=286) received integrated substance use and HIV treatment for 12 months and were interviewed at 6-month intervals. We used linear generalized estimating equation regression analysis to examine changes in Addiction Severity Index (ASI) alcohol and drug severity scores. To test whether our treatment was differentially effective across sites, we compared a full model including site by time point interaction terms to a reduced model including only site fixed effects. Alcohol severity scores decreased significantly at 6 and 12 months. Drug severity scores decreased significantly at 12 months. Once baseline severity variation was incorporated into the model, there was no evidence of variation in alcohol or drug score changes by site. Substance use outcomes did not differ by age, gender, income, or race. This integrated treatment model offers an option for treating diverse patients with HIV and substance use in a variety of clinic settings. Studies with control groups are needed to confirm these findings.

Variation in the type and frequency of postoperative invasive Staphylococcus aureus infections according to type of surgical procedure.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the epidemiological characteristics of postoperative invasive Staphylococcus aureus infection following 4 types of major surgical procedures.design. Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Eleven hospitals (9 community hospitals and 2 tertiary care hospitals) in North Carolina and Virginia. PATIENTS: Adults undergoing orthopedic, neurosurgical, cardiothoracic, and plastic surgical procedures. METHODS: We used previously validated, prospectively collected surgical surveillance data for surgical site infection and microbiological data for bloodstream infection. The study period was 2003 through 2006. We defined invasive S. aureus infection as either nonsuperficial incisional surgical site infection or bloodstream infection. Nonparametric bootstrapping was used to generate 95% confidence intervals (CIs). P values were generated using the Pearson chi2 test, Student t test, or Wilcoxon rank-sum test, as appropriate. RESULTS: In total, 81,267 patients underwent 96,455 procedures during the study period. The overall incidence of invasive S. aureus infection was 0.47 infections per 100 procedures (95% CI, 0.43-0.52); 227 (51%) of 446 infections were due to methicillin-resistant S.aureus. Invasive S. aureus infection was more common after cardiothoracic procedures (incidence, 0.79 infections per 100 procedures [95%CI, 0.62-0.97]) than after orthopedic procedures (0.37 infections per 100 procedures [95% CI, 0.32-0.42]), neurosurgical procedures (0.62 infections per 100 procedures [95% CI, 0.53-0.72]), or plastic surgical procedures (0.32 infections per 100 procedures [95% CI, 0.17-0.47]) (P < .001). Similarly, S. aureus bloodstream infection was most common after cardiothoracic procedures (incidence, 0.57 infections per 100 procedures [95% CI, 0.43-0.72]; P < .001, compared with other procedure types), comprising almost three-quarters of the invasive S. aureus infections after these procedures. The highest rate of surgical site infection was observed after neurosurgical procedures (incidence, 0.50 infections per 100 procedures [95% CI, 0.42-0.59]; P < .001, compared with other procedure types), comprising 80% of invasive S.aureus infections after these procedures. CONCLUSION: The frequency and type of postoperative invasive S. aureus infection varied significantly across procedure types. The highest risk procedures, such as cardiothoracic procedures, should be targeted for ongoing preventative interventions.

Major and minor music compared to excited and subdued speech.

The affective impact of music arises from a variety of factors, including intensity, tempo, rhythm, and tonal relationships. The emotional coloring evoked by intensity, tempo, and rhythm appears to arise from association with the characteristics of human behavior in the corresponding condition; however, how and why particular tonal relationships in music convey distinct emotional effects are not clear. The hypothesis examined here is that major and minor tone collections elicit different affective reactions because their spectra are similar to the spectra of voiced speech uttered in different emotional states. To evaluate this possibility the spectra of the intervals that distinguish major and minor music were compared to the spectra of voiced segments in excited and subdued speech using fundamental frequency and frequency ratios as measures. Consistent with the hypothesis, the spectra of major intervals are more similar to spectra found in excited speech, whereas the spectra of particular minor intervals are more similar to the spectra of subdued speech. These results suggest that the characteristic affective impact of major and minor tone collections arises from associations routinely made between particular musical intervals and voiced speech.

Using fractal downscaling of satellite precipitation products for hydrometeorological applications

The objective of spatial downscaling strategies is to increase the information content of coarse datasets at smaller scales. In the case of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) for hydrological applications, the goal is to close the scale gap between the spatial resolution of coarse datasets (e.g., gridded satellite precipitation products at resolution L × L) and the high resolution (l × l; L»l) necessary to capture the spatial features that determine spatial variability of water flows and water stores in the landscape. In essence, the downscaling process consists of weaving subgrid-scale heterogeneity over a desired range of wavelengths in the original field. The defining question is, which properties, statistical and otherwise, of the target field (the known observable at the desired spatial resolution) should be matched, with the caveat that downscaling methods be as a general as possible and therefore ideally without case-specific constraints and/or calibration requirements? Here, the attention is focused on two simple fractal downscaling methods using iterated functions systems (IFS) and fractal Brownian surfaces (FBS) that meet this requirement. The two methods were applied to disaggregate spatially 27 summertime convective storms in the central United States during 2007 at three consecutive times (1800, 2100, and 0000 UTC, thus 81 fields overall) from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) version 6 (V6) 3B42 precipitation product (~25-km grid spacing) to the same resolution as the NCEP stage IV products (~4-km grid spacing). Results from bilinear interpolation are used as the control. A fundamental distinction between IFS and FBS is that the latter implies a distribution of downscaled fields and thus an ensemble solution, whereas the former provides a single solution. The downscaling effectiveness is assessed using fractal measures (the spectral exponent β, fractal dimension D, Hurst coefficient H, and roughness amplitude R) and traditional operational scores statistics scores [false alarm rate (FR), probability of detection (PD), threat score (TS), and Heidke skill score (HSS)], as well as bias and the root-mean-square error (RMSE). The results show that both IFS and FBS fractal interpolation perform well with regard to operational skill scores, and they meet the additional requirement of generating structurally consistent fields. Furthermore, confidence intervals can be directly generated from the FBS ensemble. The results were used to diagnose errors relevant for hydrometeorological applications, in particular a spatial displacement with characteristic length of at least 50 km (2500 km2) in the location of peak rainfall intensities for the cases studied. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.

Variation in use of surveillance colonoscopy among colorectal cancer survivors in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Clinical practice guidelines recommend colonoscopies at regular intervals for colorectal cancer (CRC) survivors. Using data from a large, multi-regional, population-based cohort, we describe the rate of surveillance colonoscopy and its association with geographic, sociodemographic, clinical, and health services characteristics. METHODS: We studied CRC survivors enrolled in the Cancer Care Outcomes Research and Surveillance (CanCORS) study. Eligible survivors were diagnosed between 2003 and 2005, had curative surgery for CRC, and were alive without recurrences 14 months after surgery with curative intent. Data came from patient interviews and medical record abstraction. We used a multivariate logit model to identify predictors of colonoscopy use. RESULTS: Despite guidelines recommending surveillance, only 49% of the 1423 eligible survivors received a colonoscopy within 14 months after surgery. We observed large regional differences (38% to 57%) across regions. Survivors who received screening colonoscopy were more likely to: have colon cancer than rectal cancer (OR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.05-1.90); have visited a primary care physician (OR = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.14-1.82); and received adjuvant chemotherapy (OR = 1.75, 95% CI: 1.27-2.41). Compared to survivors with no comorbidities, survivors with moderate or severe comorbidities were less likely to receive surveillance colonoscopy (OR = 0.69, 95% CI: 0.49-0.98 and OR = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.29-0.66, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Despite guidelines, more than half of CRC survivors did not receive surveillance colonoscopy within 14 months of surgery, with substantial variation by site of care. The association of primary care visits and adjuvant chemotherapy use suggests that access to care following surgery affects cancer surveillance.

Comparison of a reduced carbohydrate and reduced fat diet for LDL, HDL, and VLDL subclasses during 9-months of weight maintenance subsequent to weight loss.

OBJECTIVES: This study compared LDL, HDL, and VLDL subclasses in overweight or obese adults consuming either a reduced carbohydrate (RC) or reduced fat (RF) weight maintenance diet for 9 months following significant weight loss. METHODS: Thirty-five (21 RC; 14 RF) overweight or obese middle-aged adults completed a 1-year weight management clinic. Participants met weekly for the first six months and bi-weekly thereafter. Meetings included instruction for diet, physical activity, and behavior change related to weight management. Additionally, participants followed a liquid very low-energy diet of approximately 2092 kJ per day for the first three months of the study. Subsequently, participants followed a dietary plan for nine months that targeted a reduced percentage of carbohydrate (approximately 20%) or fat (approximately 30%) intake and an energy intake level calculated to maintain weight loss. Lipid subclasses using NMR spectroscopy were analyzed prior to weight loss and at multiple intervals during weight maintenance. RESULTS: Body weight change was not significantly different within or between groups during weight maintenance (p>0.05). The RC group showed significant increases in mean LDL size, large LDL, total HDL, large and small HDL, mean VLDL size, and large VLDL during weight maintenance while the RF group showed increases in total HDL, large and small HDL, total VLDL, and large, medium, and small VLDL (p<0.05). Group*time interactions were significant for large and medium VLDL (p>0.05). CONCLUSION: Some individual lipid subclasses improved in both dietary groups. Large and medium VLDL subclasses increased to a greater extent across weight maintenance in the RF group.

Improving supply chain performance: Real-time demand information and flexible deliveries

In some supply chains, materials are ordered periodically according to local information. This paper investigates how to improve the performance of such a supply chain. Specifically, we consider a serial inventory system in which each stage implements a local reorder interval policy; i.e., each stage orders up to a local basestock level according to a fixed-interval schedule. A fixed cost is incurred for placing an order. Two improvement strategies are considered: (1) expanding the information flow by acquiring real-time demand information and (2) accelerating the material flow via flexible deliveries. The first strategy leads to a reorder interval policy with full information; the second strategy leads to a reorder point policy with local information. Both policies have been studied in the literature. Thus, to assess the benefit of these strategies, we analyze the local reorder interval policy. We develop a bottom-up recursion to evaluate the system cost and provide a method to obtain the optimal policy. A numerical study shows the following: Increasing the flexibility of deliveries lowers costs more than does expanding information flow; the fixed order costs and the system lead times are key drivers that determine the effectiveness of these improvement strategies. In addition, we find that using optimal batch sizes in the reorder point policy and demand rate to infer reorder intervals may lead to significant cost inefficiency. © 2010 INFORMS.

Bacterial vaginosis as a risk factor for high-grade cervical lesions and cancer in HIV-seropositive women.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of bacterial vaginosis (BV) on the risk of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) among HIV-seropositive women. METHODS: A hospital-based prospective cohort study of HIV-seropositive women was conducted in Johannesburg, South Africa from January 2005 to September 2009. Multivariate log-binomial and Poisson regressions were used to estimate prevalence and rate ratios, respectively. RESULTS: Among 1954 HIV-seropositive women, the baseline prevalence of HSIL was 17%. BV prevalence was high (54%) and showed no association with prevalence of HSIL (adjusted prevalence ratio, 1.12; 95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.92-1.35) nor with cervical lesion progression at follow-up visit (n=503) (adjusted rate ratio: 1.00; 95% CI, 0.65-1.53). CONCLUSION: Among HIV-seropositive women, BV was not associated with an increased risk of HSIL or cervical lesion progression.

Genetic variants in IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-3, and adiponectin genes and colon cancer risk in African Americans and Whites.

PURPOSE: Evaluating genetic susceptibility may clarify effects of known environmental factors and also identify individuals at high risk. We evaluated the association of four insulin-related pathway gene polymorphisms in insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-I) (CA)( n ) repeat, insulin-like growth factor-2 (IGF-II) (rs680), insulin-like growth factor-binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) (rs2854744), and adiponectin (APM1 rs1501299) with colon cancer risk, as well as relationships with circulating IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-3, and C-peptide in a population-based study. METHODS: Participants were African Americans (231 cases and 306 controls) and Whites (297 cases, 530 controls). Consenting subjects provided blood specimens and lifestyle/diet information. Genotyping for all genes except IGF-I was performed by the 5'-exonuclease (Taqman) assay. The IGF-I (CA)(n) repeat was assayed by PCR and fragment analysis. Circulating proteins were measured by enzyme immunoassays. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by logistic regression. RESULTS: The IGF-I (CA)( 19 ) repeat was higher in White controls (50 %) than African American controls (31 %). Whites homozygous for the IGF-I (CA)(19) repeat had a nearly twofold increase in risk of colon cancer (OR = 1.77; 95 % CI = 1.15-2.73), but not African Americans (OR = 0.73, 95 % CI 0.50-1.51). We observed an inverse association between the IGF-II Apa1 A-variant and colon cancer risk (OR = 0.49, 95 % CI 0.28-0.88) in Whites only. Carrying the IGFBP-3 variant alleles was associated with lower IGFBP-3 protein levels, a difference most pronounced in Whites (p-trend <0.05). CONCLUSIONS: These results support an association between insulin pathway-related genes and elevated colon cancer risk in Whites but not in African Americans.

Reproduction and population growth in free-ranging mantled howling monkeys.

Free-ranging mantled howling monkey (Alouatta palliata Gray) females experienced a regular estrus cycle averaging 16.3 days, demonstrated sexual skin changes, and participated in multiple matings before becoming pregnant. Gestation averaged 186 days. The average interval between births was 22.5 months. Sexual maturity occurred at approximately 36 and 42 months for females and males, respectively. Female age at first birth was about 3 1/2 years. Births were scattered during some years and clustered during others. The age, rank, and parity of the females affected infant survival. More female than male infants survived to one year of age. Increased population size was the result of immigration rather than births.

Intake, digestibility, and passage of a commercially designed diet by two Propithecus species.

The digestibility and passage of an experimental diet was used to compare the digestive physiology of two Propithecus species: P. verreauxi and P. tattersalli. Though both animals have a similar feeding ecology, the captive status of P. verreauxi is considered more stable than that of P. tattersalli. The test diet included a local tree species, Rhus copallina, at 15% of dry matter intake (DMI) and Mazuri Leafeater Primate Diet at 85% of DMI. The chemical composition of the diet (dry matter basis) was 25% crude protein, 34% neutral detergent fiber (NDF), and 22% acid detergent fiber (ADF) with a gross energy of 4.52 kcal/g. After a 6 week acclimation to the experimental diet, animals were placed in research caging. After a 7 day adjustment period, animals were dosed with chromium mordant and Co-EDTA as markers for digesta passage and all feed refusals and feces were collected at timed intervals for 7 days. Digestibility values, similar for both species, were approximately 65% for dry matter, crude protein, and energy, and 40% and 35% respectively, for NDF and ADF. Transit times (17-18.5 hr) and mean retention times (31-34 hr) were not significantly different between species, and there was no difference between the chromium mordant and Co-EDTA. Serum values for glucose, urea, and non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) were obtained during four different time periods to monitor nutritional status. While there was no change in serum glucose, serum urea increased over time. The NEFAs increased across all four time periods for P. verreauxi and increased for the first three periods then decreased in the last period for P. tattersalli. Results obtained indicate no difference in digestibility nor digesta passage between species, and that both Propithecus species were similar to other post-gastric folivores.

Functional parcellation of attentional control regions of the brain.

Recently, a number of investigators have examined the neural loci of psychological processes enabling the control of visual spatial attention using cued-attention paradigms in combination with event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging. Findings from these studies have provided strong evidence for the involvement of a fronto-parietal network in attentional control. In the present study, we build upon this previous work to further investigate these attentional control systems. In particular, we employed additional controls for nonattentional sensory and interpretative aspects of cue processing to determine whether distinct regions in the fronto-parietal network are involved in different aspects of cue processing, such as cue-symbol interpretation and attentional orienting. In addition, we used shorter cue-target intervals that were closer to those used in the behavioral and event-related potential cueing literatures. Twenty participants performed a cued spatial attention task while brain activity was recorded with functional magnetic resonance imaging. We found functional specialization for different aspects of cue processing in the lateral and medial subregions of the frontal and parietal cortex. In particular, the medial subregions were more specific to the orienting of visual spatial attention, while the lateral subregions were associated with more general aspects of cue processing, such as cue-symbol interpretation. Additional cue-related effects included differential activations in midline frontal regions and pretarget enhancements in the thalamus and early visual cortical areas.