A tale of two market failures: Technology and environmental policy

Market failures associated with environmental pollution interact with market failures associated with the innovation and diffusion of new technologies. These combined market failures provide a strong rationale for a portfolio of public policies that foster emissions reduction as well as the development and adoption of environmentally beneficial technology. Both theory and empirical evidence suggest that the rate and direction of technological advance is influenced by market and regulatory incentives, and can be cost-effectively harnessed through the use of economic-incentive based policy. In the presence of weak or nonexistent environmental policies, investments in the development and diffusion of new environmentally beneficial technologies are very likely to be less than would be socially desirable. Positive knowledge and adoption spillovers and information problems can further weaken innovation incentives. While environmental technology policy is fraught with difficulties, a long-term view suggests a strategy of experimenting with policy approaches and systematically evaluating their success. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Test-pattern selection for screening small-delay defects in very-deep submicrometer integrated circuits

Timing-related defects are major contributors to test escapes and in-field reliability problems for very-deep submicrometer integrated circuits. Small delay variations induced by crosstalk, process variations, power-supply noise, as well as resistive opens and shorts can potentially cause timing failures in a design, thereby leading to quality and reliability concerns. We present a test-grading technique that uses the method of output deviations for screening small-delay defects (SDDs). A new gate-delay defect probability measure is defined to model delay variations for nanometer technologies. The proposed technique intelligently selects the best set of patterns for SDD detection from an n-detect pattern set generated using timing-unaware automatic test-pattern generation (ATPG). It offers significantly lower computational complexity and excites a larger number of long paths compared to a current generation commercial timing-aware ATPG tool. Our results also show that, for the same pattern count, the selected patterns provide more effective coverage ramp-up than timing-aware ATPG and a recent pattern-selection method for random SDDs potentially caused by resistive shorts, resistive opens, and process variations. © 2010 IEEE.

Jamming for a 2D granular material

This paper focuses on the nature of jamming, as seen in two-dimensional frictional granular systems consisting of photoelastic particles. The photoelastic technique is unique at this time, in its capability to provide detailed particle-scale information on forces and kinematic quantities such as particle displacements and rotations. These experiments first explore isotropic stress states near point J through measurements of the mean contact number per particle, Z, and the pressure, P as functions of the packing fraction, . In this case, the experiments show some but not all aspects of jamming, as expected on the basis of simulations and models that typically assume conservative, hence frictionless, forces between particles. Specifically, there is a rapid growth in Z, at a reasonable which we identify with as c. It is possible to fit Z and P, to power law expressions in - c above c, and to obtain exponents that are in agreement with simulations and models. However, the experiments differ from theory on several points, as typified by the rounding that is observed in Z and P near c. The application of shear to these same 2D granular systems leads to phenomena that are qualitatively different from the standard picture of jamming. In particular, there is a range of packing fractions below c, where the application of shear strain at constant leads to jammed stress-anisotropic states, i.e. they have a non-zero shear stress, τ. The application of shear strain to an initially isotropically compressed (hence jammed) state, does not lead to an unjammed state per se. Rather, shear strain at constant first leads to an increase of both τ and P. Additional strain leads to a succession of jammed states interspersed with relatively localized failures of the force network leading to other stress-anisotropic states that are jammed at typically somewhat lower stress. The locus of jammed states requires a state space that involves not only and τ, but also P. P, τ, and Z are all hysteretic functions of shear strain for fixed . However, we find that both P and τ are roughly linear functions of Z for strains large enough to jam the system. This implies that these shear-jammed states satisfy a Coulomb like-relation, τ = μP. © 2010 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

Economics of new oncology drug development.

PURPOSE: Review existing studies and provide new results on the development, regulatory, and market aspects of new oncology drug development. METHODS: We utilized data from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), company surveys, and publicly available commercial business intelligence databases on new oncology drugs approved in the United States and on investigational oncology drugs to estimate average development and regulatory approval times, clinical approval success rates, first-in-class status, and global market diffusion. RESULTS: We found that approved new oncology drugs to have a disproportionately high share of FDA priority review ratings, of orphan drug designations at approval, and of drugs that were granted inclusion in at least one of the FDA's expedited access programs. US regulatory approval times were shorter, on average, for oncology drugs (0.5 years), but US clinical development times were longer on average (1.5 years). Clinical approval success rates were similar for oncology and other drugs, but proportionately more of the oncology failures reached expensive late-stage clinical testing before being abandoned. In relation to other drugs, new oncology drug approvals were more often first-in-class and diffused more widely across important international markets. CONCLUSION: The market success of oncology drugs has induced a substantial amount of investment in oncology drug development in the last decade or so. However, given the great need for further progress, the extent to which efforts to develop new oncology drugs will grow depends on future public-sector investment in basic research, developments in translational medicine, and regulatory reforms that advance drug-development science.

The neural basis of naming impairments in Alzheimer's disease revealed through positron emission tomography.

The naming impairments in Alzheimer's disease (AD) have been attributed to a variety of cognitive processing deficits, including impairments in semantic memory, visual perception, and lexical access. To further understand the underlying biological basis of the naming failures in AD, the present investigation examined the relationship of various classes of naming errors to regional brain measures of cerebral glucose metabolism as measured with 18 F-Fluoro-2-deoxyglucose (FDG) and positron emission tomography (PET). Errors committed on a visual naming test were categorized according to a cognitive processing schema and then examined in relationship to metabolism within specific brain regions. The results revealed an association of semantic errors with glucose metabolism in the frontal and temporal regions. Language access errors, such as circumlocutions, and word blocking nonresponses were associated with decreased metabolism in areas within the left hemisphere. Visuoperceptive errors were related to right inferior parietal metabolic function. The findings suggest that specific brain areas mediate the perceptual, semantic, and lexical processing demands of visual naming and that visual naming problems in dementia are related to dysfunction in specific neural circuits.

Impact of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most devastating weather systems affecting the United States and Central America (USCA). Here we show that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) strongly modulates TC activity over the North Atlantic (NA) and eastern North Pacific (eNP). During positive IPO phases, less (more) TCs were observed over NA (eNP), likely due to the presence of stronger (weaker) vertical wind shear and the resulting changes in genesis potential. Furthermore, TCs over NA tend to keep their tracks more eastward and recurve at lower latitudes during positive IPO phases. Such variations are largely determined by changes in steering flow instead of changes in genesis locations. Over the eNP, smaller track variations are observed at different IPO phases with stable, westward movements of TCs prevailing. These findings have substantial implications for understanding decadal to inter-decadal fluctuations in the risk of TC landfalls along USCA coasts.

Mid-term results and factors affecting outcome of a metal-backed unicompartmental knee design: a case series.

BACKGROUND: Controversies exist regarding the indications for unicompartmental knee arthroplasty. The objective of this study is to report the mid-term results and examine predictors of failure in a metal-backed unicompartmental knee arthroplasty design. METHODS: At a mean follow-up of 60 months, 80 medial unicompartmental knee arthroplasties (68 patients) were evaluated. Implant survivorship was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier method. The Knee Society objective and functional scores and radiographic characteristics were compared before surgery and at final follow-up. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to examine the association of patient's age, gender, obesity (body mass index > 30 kg/m2), diagnosis, Knee Society scores and patella arthrosis with failure. RESULTS: There were 9 failures during the follow up. The mean Knee Society objective and functional scores were respectively 49 and 48 points preoperatively and 95 and 92 points postoperatively. The survival rate was 92% at 5 years and 84% at 10 years. The mean age was younger in the failure group than the non-failure group (p < 0.01). However, none of the factors assessed was independently associated with failure based on the results from the Cox proportional hazard model. CONCLUSION: Gender, pre-operative diagnosis, preoperative objective and functional scores and patellar osteophytes were not independent predictors of failure of unicompartmental knee implants, although high body mass index trended toward significance. The findings suggest that the standard criteria for UKA may be expanded without compromising the outcomes, although caution may be warranted in patients with very high body mass index pending additional data to confirm our results. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: IV.

Are component positioning and prosthesis size associated with hip resurfacing failure?

BACKGROUND: Recent studies suggest that there is a learning curve for metal-on-metal hip resurfacing. The purpose of this study was to assess whether implant positioning changed with surgeon experience and whether positioning and component sizing were associated with implant longevity. METHODS: We evaluated the first 361 consecutive hip resurfacings performed by a single surgeon, which had a mean follow-up of 59 months (range, 28 to 87 months). Pre and post-operative radiographs were assessed to determine the inclination of the acetabular component, as well as the sagittal and coronal femoral stem-neck angles. Changes in the precision of component placement were determined by assessing changes in the standard deviation of each measurement using variance ratio and linear regression analysis. Additionally, the cup and stem-shaft angles as well as component sizes were compared between the 31 hips that failed over the follow-up period and the surviving components to assess for any differences that might have been associated with an increased risk for failure. RESULTS: Surgeon experience was correlated with improved precision of the antero-posterior and lateral positioning of the femoral component. However, femoral and acetabular radiographic implant positioning angles were not different between the surviving hips and failures. The failures had smaller mean femoral component diameters as compared to the non-failure group (44 versus 47 millimeters). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that there may be differences in implant positioning in early versus late learning curve procedures, but that in the absence of recognized risk factors such as intra-operative notching of the femoral neck and cup inclination in excess of 50 degrees, component positioning does not appear to be associated with failure. Nevertheless, surgeons should exercise caution in operating patients with small femoral necks, especially when they are early in the learning curve.