Reduction of quantity smoked predicts future cessation among older smokers.

AIM: To examine whether smokers who reduce their quantity of cigarettes smoked between two periods are more or less likely to quit subsequently. STUDY DESIGN: Data come from the Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative survey of older Americans aged 51-61 in 1991 followed every 2 years from 1992 to 1998. The 2064 participants smoking at baseline and the first follow-up comprise the main sample. MEASUREMENTS: Smoking cessation by 1996 is examined as the primary outcome. A secondary outcome is relapse by 1998. Spontaneous changes in smoking quantity between the first two waves make up the key predictor variables. Control variables include gender, age, education, race, marital status, alcohol use, psychiatric problems, acute or chronic health problems and smoking quantity. FINDINGS: Large (over 50%) and even moderate (25-50%) reductions in quantity smoked between 1992 and 1994 predict prospectively increased likelihood of cessation in 1996 compared to no change in quantity (OR 2.96, P<0.001 and OR 1.61, P<0.01, respectively). Additionally, those who reduced and then quit were somewhat less likely to relapse by 1998 than those who did not reduce in the 2 years prior to quitting. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing successfully the quantity of cigarettes smoked appears to have a beneficial effect on future cessation likelihood, even after controlling for initial smoking level and other variables known to impact smoking cessation. These results indicate that the harm reduction strategy of reduced smoking warrants further study.

Toward the development of national telehealth services: the role of Veterans Health Administration and future directions for research.

The Veterans Health Administration (VHA) in the Department of Veteran Affairs (VA) has emerged as a national and international leader in the delivery and research of telehealth-based treatment. Several unique characteristics of care in VA settings intersect to create an ideal environment for telehealth modalities and research. However, the value of telehealth experience and initiatives in VA settings is limited if telehealth strategies cannot be widely exported to other public or private systems. Whereas a hierarchical organization, such as VA, can innovate and fund change relatively quickly based on provider and patient preferences and a growing knowledge base, other health provider organizations and third-party payers may likely require replicable scientific findings over time before incremental investments will be made to create infrastructure, reform regulatory barriers, and amend laws to accommodate expansion of telehealth modalities. Accordingly, large-scale scientifically rigorous telehealth research in VHA settings is essential not only to investigate the efficacy of existing and future telehealth practices in VHA, but also to hasten the development of telehealth infrastructure in private and other public health settings. We propose an expanded partnership between the VA, NIH, and other funding agencies to investigate creative and pragmatic uses of telehealth technology. To this end, we identify six specific areas of research we believe to be particularly relevant to the efficient development of telehealth modalities in civilian and military contexts outside VHA.

Preservation of beam emittance in the presence of ion motion in future high-energy plasma-wakefield-based colliders.

The preservation of beam quality in a plasma wakefield accelerator driven by ultrahigh intensity and ultralow emittance beams, characteristic of future particle colliders, is a challenge. The electric field of these beams leads to plasma ions motion, resulting in a nonlinear focusing force and emittance growth of the beam. We propose to use an adiabatic matching section consisting of a short plasma section with a decreasing ion mass to allow for the beam to remain matched to the focusing force. We use analytical models and numerical simulations to show that the emittance growth can be significantly reduced.

Human dimensions of bycatch reduction technology: Current assumptions and directions for future research

Bycatch reduction technology (BRT) modifies fishing gear to increase selectivity and avoid capture of non-target species, or to facilitate their non-lethal release. As a solution to fisheries-related mortality of non-target species, BRT is an attractive option; effectively implemented, BRT presents a technical 'fix' that can reduce pressure for politically contentious and economically detrimental interventions, such as fisheries closures. While a number of factors might contribute to effective implementation, our review of BRT literature finds that research has focused on technical design and experimental performance of individual technologies. In contrast, and with a few notable exceptions, research on the human and institutional context of BRT, and more specifically on how fishers respond to BRT, is limited. This is not to say that fisher attitudes are ignored or overlooked, but that incentives for fisher uptake of BRT are usually assumed rather than assessed or demonstrated. Three assumptions about fisher incentives dominate: (1) economic incentives will generate acceptance of BRT; (2) enforcement will generate compliance with BRT; and (3) 'participation' by fishers will increase acceptance and compliance, and overall support for BRT. In this paper, we explore evidence for and against these assumptions and situate our analysis in the wider social science literature on fisheries. Our goal is to highlight the need and suggest focal areas for further research. © Inter-Research 2008.

The annual ASCI meeting: does nostalgia have a future?

For many academic physician-scientists, the yearly Tri-Societies meeting of the ASCI, AAP, and AFCR during the 1960s, '70s, and '80s was an annual rite of spring and the focal point of the academic year. In this brief essay, I set down some miscellaneous recollections of these meetings and some thoughts about why they were of such central importance in the careers of those of my generation.

Discounting the distant future: How much do uncertain rates increase valuations?

We demonstrate that when the future path of the discount rate is uncertain and highly correlated, the distant future should be discounted at significantly lower rates than suggested by the current rate. We then use two centuries of US interest rate data to quantify this effect. Using both random walk and mean-reverting models, we compute the "certainty-equivalent rate" that summarizes the effect of uncertainty and measures the appropriate forward rate of discount in the future. Under the random walk model we find that the certainty-equivalent rate falls continuously from 4% to 2% after 100 years, 1% after 200 years, and 0.5% after 300 years. At horizons of 400 years, the discounted value increases by a factor of over 40,000 relative to conventional discounting. Applied to climate change mitigation, we find that incorporating discount rate uncertainty almost doubles the expected present value of mitigation benefits. © 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

An exploration of future trends in environmental education research

This article describes future trends in environmental education (EE) research based on a mixed-methods study where data were collected through a content analysis of peer-reviewed articles published in EE journals between 2005 and 2010; interviews with experts engaged in EE research and sustainability-related fields; surveys with current EE researchers; and convenings with EE researchers and practitioners. We discuss four core thematic findings: (1) EE researchers are highlighting the importance of collective and community learning and action; (2) EE researchers are placing increased emphasis on the intersection of learning within the context of social-ecological communities (e.g. links between environmental quality and human well-being); (3) a pressing need exists for research conducted with urban and diverse populations; and (4) research around social media and other information technologies is of great interest, yet currently is sparse. © 2013 © 2013 Taylor & Francis.

A neural biomarker of psychological vulnerability to future life stress.

We all experience a host of common life stressors such as the death of a family member, medical illness, and financial uncertainty. While most of us are resilient to such stressors, continuing to function normally, for a subset of individuals, experiencing these stressors increases the likelihood of developing treatment-resistant, chronic psychological problems, including depression and anxiety. It is thus paramount to identify predictive markers of risk, particularly those reflecting fundamental biological processes that can be targets for intervention and prevention. Using data from a longitudinal study of 340 healthy young adults, we demonstrate that individual differences in threat-related amygdala reactivity predict psychological vulnerability to life stress occurring as much as 1 to 4 years later. These results highlight a readily assayed biomarker, threat-related amygdala reactivity, which predicts psychological vulnerability to commonly experienced stressors and represents a discrete target for intervention and prevention.

The past, present, and future of human centromere genomics.

The centromere is the chromosomal locus essential for chromosome inheritance and genome stability. Human centromeres are located at repetitive alpha satellite DNA arrays that compose approximately 5% of the genome. Contiguous alpha satellite DNA sequence is absent from the assembled reference genome, limiting current understanding of centromere organization and function. Here, we review the progress in centromere genomics spanning the discovery of the sequence to its molecular characterization and the work done during the Human Genome Project era to elucidate alpha satellite structure and sequence variation. We discuss exciting recent advances in alpha satellite sequence assembly that have provided important insight into the abundance and complex organization of this sequence on human chromosomes. In light of these new findings, we offer perspectives for future studies of human centromere assembly and function.

When the library is located in prime real estate: a case study on the loss of space from the Duke University Medical Center Library and Archives.

The Duke University Medical Center Library and Archives is located in the heart of the Duke Medicine campus, surrounded by Duke Hospital, ambulatory clinics, and numerous research facilities. Its location is considered prime real estate, given its adjacency to patient care, research, and educational activities. In 2005, the Duke University Library Space Planning Committee had recommended creating a learning center in the library that would support a variety of educational activities. However, the health system needed to convert the library's top floor into office space to make way for expansion of the hospital and cancer center. The library had only five months to plan the storage and consolidation of its journal and book collections, while working with the facilities design office and architect on the replacement of key user spaces on the top floor. Library staff worked together to develop plans for storing, weeding, and consolidating the collections and provided input into renovation plans for users spaces on its mezzanine level. The library lost 15,238 square feet (29%) of its net assignable square footage and a total of 16,897 (30%) gross square feet. This included 50% of the total space allotted to collections and over 15% of user spaces. The top-floor space now houses offices for Duke Medicine oncology faculty and staff. By storing a large portion of its collection off-site, the library was able to remove more stacks on the remaining stack level and convert them to user spaces, a long-term goal for the library. Additional space on the mezzanine level had to be converted to replace lost study and conference room spaces. While this project did not match the recommended space plans for the library, it underscored the need for the library to think creatively about the future of its facility and to work toward a more cohesive master plan.

Schema-driven construction of future autobiographical traumatic events: the future is much more troubling than the past.

Research on future episodic thought has produced compelling theories and results in cognitive psychology, cognitive neuroscience, and clinical psychology. In experiments aimed to integrate these with basic concepts and methods from autobiographical memory research, 76 undergraduates remembered past and imagined future positive and negative events that had or would have a major impact on them. Correlations of the online ratings of visual and auditory imagery, emotion, and other measures demonstrated that individuals used the same processes to the same extent to remember past and construct future events. These measures predicted the theoretically important metacognitive judgment of past reliving and future "preliving" in similar ways. On standardized tests of reactions to traumatic events, scores for future negative events were much higher than scores for past negative events. The scores for future negative events were in the range that would qualify for a diagnosis of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD); the test was replicated (n = 52) to check for order effects. Consistent with earlier work, future events had less sensory vividness. Thus, the imagined symptoms of future events were unlikely to be caused by sensory vividness. In a second experiment, to confirm this, 63 undergraduates produced numerous added details between 2 constructions of the same negative future events; deficits in rated vividness were removed with no increase in the standardized tests of reactions to traumatic events. Neuroticism predicted individuals' reactions to negative past events but did not predict imagined reactions to future events. This set of novel methods and findings is interpreted in the contexts of the literatures of episodic future thought, autobiographical memory, PTSD, and classic schema theory.

Thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to future changes in regional precipitation variance: focus on the Southeastern United States

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.The frequency and severity of extreme events are tightly associated with the variance of precipitation. As climate warms, the acceleration in hydrological cycle is likely to enhance the variance of precipitation across the globe. However, due to the lack of an effective analysis method, the mechanisms responsible for the changes of precipitation variance are poorly understood, especially on regional scales. Our study fills this gap by formulating a variance partition algorithm, which explicitly quantifies the contributions of atmospheric thermodynamics (specific humidity) and dynamics (wind) to the changes in regional-scale precipitation variance. Taking Southeastern (SE) United States (US) summer precipitation as an example, the algorithm is applied to the simulations of current and future climate by phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. The analysis suggests that compared to observations, most CMIP5 models (~60 %) tend to underestimate the summer precipitation variance over the SE US during the 1950–1999, primarily due to the errors in the modeled dynamic processes (i.e. large-scale circulation). Among the 18 CMIP5 models analyzed in this study, six of them reasonably simulate SE US summer precipitation variance in the twentieth century and the underlying physical processes; these models are thus applied for mechanistic study of future changes in SE US summer precipitation variance. In the future, the six models collectively project an intensification of SE US summer precipitation variance, resulting from the combined effects of atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics. Between them, the latter plays a more important role. Specifically, thermodynamics results in more frequent and intensified wet summers, but does not contribute to the projected increase in the frequency and intensity of dry summers. In contrast, atmospheric dynamics explains the projected enhancement in both wet and dry summers, indicating its importance in understanding future climate change over the SE US. The results suggest that the intensified SE US summer precipitation variance is not a purely thermodynamic response to greenhouse gases forcing, and cannot be explained without the contribution of atmospheric dynamics. Our analysis provides important insights to understand the mechanisms of SE US summer precipitation variance change. The algorithm formulated in this study can be easily applied to other regions and seasons to systematically explore the mechanisms responsible for the changes in precipitation extremes in a warming climate.

Carbon Markets: Past, Present, and Future

Carbon markets are substantial and they are expanding. There are many lessons from experiences over the past eight years: fewer free allowances, better management of market-sensitive information, and a recognition that trading systems require adjustments that have consequences for market participants and market confidence. Moreover, the emerging international architecture features separate emissions trading systems serving distinct jurisdictions. These programs are complemented by a variety of other types of policies alongside the carbon markets. This sits in sharp contrast to the integrated global trading architecture envisioned 15 years ago by the designers of the Kyoto Protocol and raises a suite of new questions. In this new architecture, jurisdictions with emissions trading have to decide how, whether, and when to link with one another, and policymakers overseeing carbon markets must confront how to measure the comparability of efforts among markets and relative to a variety of other policy approaches.

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Carbon markets: Past, present, and future

© 2014 by Annual Reviews.Carbon markets are substantial and expanding. There are many lessons from experience over the past 9 years: fewer free allowances, careful moderation of low and high prices, and a recognition that trading systems require adjustments that have consequences for market participants and market confidence. Moreover, the emerging international architecture features separate emissions trading systems serving distinct jurisdictions. These programs are complemented by a variety of other types of policies alongside the carbon markets. This architecture sits in sharp contrast to the integrated global trading architecture envisioned 15 years ago by the designers of the Kyoto Protocol and raises a suite of new questions. In this new architecture, jurisdictions with emissions trading have to decide how, whether, and when to link with one another, and policy makers must confront how to measure both the comparability of efforts among markets and the comparability between markets and a variety of other policy approaches.