Lightweight deformable mirrors for future space telescopes

This thesis presents a concept for ultra-lightweight deformable mirrors based on a thin substrate of optical surface quality coated with continuous active piezopolymer layers that provide modes of actuation and shape correction. This concept eliminates any kind of stiff backing structure for the mirror surface and exploits micro-fabrication technologies to provide a tight integration of the active materials into the mirror structure, to avoid actuator print-through effects. Proof-of-concept, 10-cm-diameter mirrors with a low areal density of about 0.5 kg/m² have been designed, built and tested to measure their shape-correction performance and verify the models used for design. The low cost manufacturing scheme uses replication techniques, and strives for minimizing residual stresses that deviate the optical figure from the master mandrel. It does not require precision tolerancing, is lightweight, and is therefore potentially scalable to larger diameters for use in large, modular space telescopes. Other potential applications for such a laminate could include ground-based mirrors for solar energy collection, adaptive optics for atmospheric turbulence, laser communications, and other shape control applications.

The immediate application for these mirrors is for the Autonomous Assembly and Reconfiguration of a Space Telescope (AAReST) mission, which is a university mission under development by Caltech, the University of Surrey, and JPL. The design concept, fabrication methodology, material behaviors and measurements, mirror modeling, mounting and control electronics design, shape control experiments, predictive performance analysis, and remaining challenges are presented herein. The experiments have validated numerical models of the mirror, and the mirror models have been used within a model of the telescope in order to predict the optical performance. A demonstration of this mirror concept, along with other new telescope technologies, is planned to take place during the AAReST mission.

Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

Advancing EDL technologies for future space missions : from ground testing facilities to ablative heatshields

Motivated by recent MSL results where the ablation rate of the PICA heatshield was over-predicted, and staying true to the objectives outlined in the NASA Space Technology Roadmaps and Priorities report, this work focuses on advancing EDL technologies for future space missions.

Due to the difficulties in performing flight tests in the hypervelocity regime, a new ground testing facility called the vertical expansion tunnel is proposed. The adverse effects from secondary diaphragm rupture in an expansion tunnel may be reduced or eliminated by orienting the tunnel vertically, matching the test gas pressure and the accelerator gas pressure, and initially separating the test gas from the accelerator gas by density stratification. If some sacrifice of the reservoir conditions can be made, the VET can be utilized in hypervelocity ground testing, without the problems associated with secondary diaphragm rupture.

The performance of different constraints for the Rate-Controlled Constrained-Equilibrium (RCCE) method is investigated in the context of modeling reacting flows characteristic to ground testing facilities, and re-entry conditions. The effectiveness of different constraints are isolated, and new constraints previously unmentioned in the literature are introduced. Three main benefits from the RCCE method were determined: 1) the reduction in number of equations that need to be solved to model a reacting flow; 2) the reduction in stiffness of the system of equations needed to be solved; and 3) the ability to tabulate chemical properties as a function of a constraint once, prior to running a simulation, along with the ability to use the same table for multiple simulations.

Finally, published physical properties of PICA are compiled, and the composition of the pyrolysis gases that form at high temperatures internal to a heatshield is investigated. A necessary link between the composition of the solid resin, and the composition of the pyrolysis gases created is provided. This link, combined with a detailed investigation into a reacting pyrolysis gas mixture, allows a much needed consistent, and thorough description of many of the physical phenomena occurring in a PICA heatshield, and their implications, to be presented.

Through the use of computational fluid mechanics and computational chemistry methods, significant contributions have been made to advancing ground testing facilities, computational methods for reacting flows, and ablation modeling.

Dynamics of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in Present and Future Climates

This thesis aims at enhancing our fundamental understanding of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and mechanisms implicated in its climatology in present-day and warmer climates. We focus on the most prominent feature of the EASM, i.e., the so-called Meiyu-Baiu (MB), which is characterized by a well-defined, southwest to northeast elongated quasi-stationary rainfall band, spanning from eastern China to Japan and into the northwestern Pacific Ocean in June and July.

We begin with an observational study of the energetics of the MB front in present-day climate. Analyses of the moist static energy (MSE) budget of the MB front indicate that horizontal advection of moist enthalpy, primarily of dry enthalpy, sustains the front in a region of otherwise negative net energy input into the atmospheric column. A decomposition of the horizontal dry enthalpy advection into mean, transient, and stationary eddy fluxes identifies the longitudinal thermal gradient due to zonal asymmetries and the meridional stationary eddy velocity as the most influential factors determining the pattern of horizontal moist enthalpy advection. Numerical simulations in which the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is either retained or removed show that the TP influences the stationary enthalpy flux, and hence the MB front, primarily by changing the meridional stationary eddy velocity, with reinforced southerly wind on the northwestern flank of the north Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) over the MB region and northerly wind to its north. Changes in the longitudinal thermal gradient are mainly confined to the near downstream of the TP, with the resulting changes in zonal warm air advection having a lesser impact on the rainfall in the extended MB region.

Similar mechanisms are shown to be implicated in present climate simulations in the Couple Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. We find that the spatial distribution of the EASM precipitation simulated by different models is highly correlated with the meridional stationary eddy velocity. The correlation becomes more robust when energy fluxes into the atmospheric column are considered, consistent with the observational analyses. The spread in the area-averaged rainfall amount can be partially explained by the spread in the simulated globally-averaged precipitation, with the rest primarily due to the lower-level meridional wind convergence. Clear relationships between precipitation and zonal and meridional eddy velocities are observed.

Finally, the response of the EASM to greenhouse gas forcing is investigated at different time scales in CMIP5 model simulations. The reduction of radiative cooling and the increase in continental surface temperature occur much more rapidly than changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Without changes in SSTs, the rainfall in the monsoon region decreases (increases) over ocean (land) in most models. On longer time scales, as SSTs increase, rainfall changes are opposite. The total response to atmospheric CO^2 forcing and subsequent SST warming is a large (modest) increase in rainfall over ocean (land) in the EASM region. Dynamic changes, in spite of significant contributions from the thermodynamic component, play an important role in setting up the spatial pattern of precipitation changes. Rainfall anomalies over East China are a direct consequence of local land-sea contrast, while changes in the larger-scale oceanic rainfall band are closely associated with the displacement of the larger-scale NPSH. Numerical simulations show that topography and SST patterns play an important role in rainfall changes in the EASM region.