Correcting the errors: Volatility forecast evaluation using high-frequency data and realized volatilities

We develop general model-free adjustment procedures for the calculation of unbiased volatility loss functions based on practically feasible realized volatility benchmarks. The procedures, which exploit recent nonparametric asymptotic distributional results, are both easy-to-implement and highly accurate in empirically realistic situations. We also illustrate that properly accounting for the measurement errors in the volatility forecast evaluations reported in the existing literature can result in markedly higher estimates for the true degree of return volatility predictability.

Bacterial vaginosis as a risk factor for high-grade cervical lesions and cancer in HIV-seropositive women.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of bacterial vaginosis (BV) on the risk of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) among HIV-seropositive women. METHODS: A hospital-based prospective cohort study of HIV-seropositive women was conducted in Johannesburg, South Africa from January 2005 to September 2009. Multivariate log-binomial and Poisson regressions were used to estimate prevalence and rate ratios, respectively. RESULTS: Among 1954 HIV-seropositive women, the baseline prevalence of HSIL was 17%. BV prevalence was high (54%) and showed no association with prevalence of HSIL (adjusted prevalence ratio, 1.12; 95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.92-1.35) nor with cervical lesion progression at follow-up visit (n=503) (adjusted rate ratio: 1.00; 95% CI, 0.65-1.53). CONCLUSION: Among HIV-seropositive women, BV was not associated with an increased risk of HSIL or cervical lesion progression.

Prevalence and predictors of giving birth in health facilities in Bugesera District, Rwanda.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel is one of two indicators used to measure progress towards Millennium Development Goal 5, which aims for a 75% reduction in global maternal mortality ratios by 2015. Rwanda has one of the highest maternal mortality ratios in the world, estimated between 249-584 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births. The objectives of this study were to quantify secular trends in health facility delivery and to identify factors that affect the uptake of intrapartum healthcare services among women living in rural villages in Bugesera District, Eastern Province, Rwanda. METHODS: Using census data and probability proportional to size cluster sampling methodology, 30 villages were selected for community-based, cross-sectional surveys of women aged 18-50 who had given birth in the previous three years. Complete obstetric histories and detailed demographic data were elicited from respondents using iPad technology. Geospatial coordinates were used to calculate the path distances between each village and its designated health center and district hospital. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions were used to identify factors associated with delivery in health facilities. RESULTS: Analysis of 3106 lifetime deliveries from 859 respondents shows a sharp increase in the percentage of health facility deliveries in recent years. Delivering a penultimate baby at a health facility (OR = 4.681 [3.204 - 6.839]), possessing health insurance (OR = 3.812 [1.795 - 8.097]), managing household finances (OR = 1.897 [1.046 - 3.439]), attending more antenatal care visits (OR = 1.567 [1.163 - 2.112]), delivering more recently (OR = 1.438 [1.120 - 1.847] annually), and living closer to a health center (OR = 0.909 [0.846 - 0.976] per km) were independently associated with facility delivery. CONCLUSIONS: The strongest correlates of facility-based delivery in Bugesera District include previous delivery at a health facility, possession of health insurance, greater financial autonomy, more recent interactions with the health system, and proximity to a health center. Recent structural interventions in Rwanda, including the rapid scale-up of community-financed health insurance, likely contributed to the dramatic improvement in the health facility delivery rate observed in our study.

Bayesian Analysis of Latent Threshold Dynamic Models

We discuss a general approach to dynamic sparsity modeling in multivariate time series analysis. Time-varying parameters are linked to latent processes that are thresholded to induce zero values adaptively, providing natural mechanisms for dynamic variable inclusion/selection. We discuss Bayesian model specification, analysis and prediction in dynamic regressions, time-varying vector autoregressions, and multivariate volatility models using latent thresholding. Application to a topical macroeconomic time series problem illustrates some of the benefits of the approach in terms of statistical and economic interpretations as well as improved predictions. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Energy recovery in individuals with knee osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Pathological gaits have been shown to limit transfer between potential (PE) and kinetic (KE) energy during walking, which can increase locomotor costs. The purpose of this study was to examine whether energy exchange would be limited in people with knee osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: Ground reaction forces during walking were collected from 93 subjects with symptomatic knee OA (self-selected and fast speeds) and 13 healthy controls (self-selected speed) and used to calculate their center of mass (COM) movements, PE and KE relationships, and energy recovery during a stride. Correlations and linear regressions examined the impact of energy fluctuation phase and amplitude, walking velocity, body mass, self-reported pain, and radiographic severity on recovery. Paired t-tests were run to compare energy recovery between cohorts. RESULTS: Symptomatic knee OA subjects displayed lower energetic recovery during self-selected walking speeds than healthy controls (P = 0.0018). PE and KE phase relationships explained the majority (66%) of variance in recovery. Recovery had a complex relationship with velocity and its change across speeds was significantly influenced by the self-selected walking speed of each subject. Neither radiographic OA scores nor subject self-reported measures demonstrated any relationship with energy recovery. CONCLUSIONS: Knee OA reduces effective exchange of PE and KE, potentially increasing the muscular work required to control movements of the COM. Gait retraining may return subjects to more normal patterns of energy exchange and allow them to reduce fatigue.

People who expect to enter psychotherapy are prone to believing that they have forgotten memories of childhood trauma and abuse.

We asked 1004 undergraduates to estimate both the probability that they would enter therapy and the probability that they experienced but could not remember incidents of potentially life-threatening childhood traumas or physical and sexual abuse. We found a linear relation between the expectation of entering therapy and the belief that one had, but cannot now remember, childhood trauma and abuse. Thus individuals who are prone to seek psychotherapy are also prone to accept a suggested memory of childhood trauma or abuse as fitting their expectations. In multiple regressions predicting the probability of forgotten memories of childhood traumas and abuse, the expectation of entering therapy remained as a substantial predictor when self-report measures of mood, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder symptom severity, and trauma exposure were included.