Sequential anomaly detection in the presence of noise and limited feedback

This paper describes a methodology for detecting anomalies from sequentially observed and potentially noisy data. The proposed approach consists of two main elements: 1) filtering, or assigning a belief or likelihood to each successive measurement based upon our ability to predict it from previous noisy observations and 2) hedging, or flagging potential anomalies by comparing the current belief against a time-varying and data-adaptive threshold. The threshold is adjusted based on the available feedback from an end user. Our algorithms, which combine universal prediction with recent work on online convex programming, do not require computing posterior distributions given all current observations and involve simple primal-dual parameter updates. At the heart of the proposed approach lie exponential-family models which can be used in a wide variety of contexts and applications, and which yield methods that achieve sublinear per-round regret against both static and slowly varying product distributions with marginals drawn from the same exponential family. Moreover, the regret against static distributions coincides with the minimax value of the corresponding online strongly convex game. We also prove bounds on the number of mistakes made during the hedging step relative to the best offline choice of the threshold with access to all estimated beliefs and feedback signals. We validate the theory on synthetic data drawn from a time-varying distribution over binary vectors of high dimensionality, as well as on the Enron email dataset. © 1963-2012 IEEE.

Finite mixture distributions, sequential likelihood and the EM algorithm

A popular way to account for unobserved heterogeneity is to assume that the data are drawn from a finite mixture distribution. A barrier to using finite mixture models is that parameters that could previously be estimated in stages must now be estimated jointly: using mixture distributions destroys any additive separability of the log-likelihood function. We show, however, that an extension of the EM algorithm reintroduces additive separability, thus allowing one to estimate parameters sequentially during each maximization step. In establishing this result, we develop a broad class of estimators for mixture models. Returning to the likelihood problem, we show that, relative to full information maximum likelihood, our sequential estimator can generate large computational savings with little loss of efficiency.

High-field FMRI reveals brain activation patterns underlying saccade execution in the human superior colliculus.

BACKGROUND: The superior colliculus (SC) has been shown to play a crucial role in the initiation and coordination of eye- and head-movements. The knowledge about the function of this structure is mainly based on single-unit recordings in animals with relatively few neuroimaging studies investigating eye-movement related brain activity in humans. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The present study employed high-field (7 Tesla) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate SC responses during endogenously cued saccades in humans. In response to centrally presented instructional cues, subjects either performed saccades away from (centrifugal) or towards (centripetal) the center of straight gaze or maintained fixation at the center position. Compared to central fixation, the execution of saccades elicited hemodynamic activity within a network of cortical and subcortical areas that included the SC, lateral geniculate nucleus (LGN), occipital cortex, striatum, and the pulvinar. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Activity in the SC was enhanced contralateral to the direction of the saccade (i.e., greater activity in the right as compared to left SC during leftward saccades and vice versa) during both centrifugal and centripetal saccades, thereby demonstrating that the contralateral predominance for saccade execution that has been shown to exist in animals is also present in the human SC. In addition, centrifugal saccades elicited greater activity in the SC than did centripetal saccades, while also being accompanied by an enhanced deactivation within the prefrontal default-mode network. This pattern of brain activity might reflect the reduced processing effort required to move the eyes toward as compared to away from the center of straight gaze, a position that might serve as a spatial baseline in which the retinotopic and craniotopic reference frames are aligned.

Dispersal patterns in Costa Rican mantled howling monkeys

Both male and female juveniles disperse in Costa Rican mantled howling monkeys (Alouatta palliata). 79% of the males and 96% of the females leave their natal groups. Males may spend up to 4 years and females up to 1 year as solitaries. Extra-group individuals are faced with only three possibilities, i.e., form a new group by joining another extra-group individual, join an established social group, or remain solitary. Most surviving extra-group individuals join an established social group which contains no kin. Females join with the help of a resident male and once in a group proceed to rise to the alpha position through dyadic interactions. The immigrant female either becomes the alpha female or leaves and tries again in another group. Males challenge the alpha male and either defeat him or remain solitary. Competition with relatives for limited high quality food may be the reason for both sexes leaving their natal groups in howlers. By leaving, the successful immigrants increase their mothers inclusive fitness while suppressing the fitness of nonrelatives instead of remaining natal and competing with relatives for limited food. © 1992 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

Patterns in blood pressure medication use in US incident dialysis patients over the first 6 months.

BACKGROUND: Several observational studies have evaluated the effect of a single exposure window with blood pressure (BP) medications on outcomes in incident dialysis patients, but whether BP medication prescription patterns remain stable or a single exposure window design is adequate to evaluate effect on outcomes is unclear. METHODS: We described patterns of BP medication prescription over 6 months after dialysis initiation in hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis patients, stratified by cardiovascular comorbidity, diabetes, and other patient characteristics. The cohort included 13,072 adult patients (12,159 hemodialysis, 913 peritoneal dialysis) who initiated dialysis in Dialysis Clinic, Inc., facilities January 1, 2003-June 30, 2008, and remained on the original modality for at least 6 months. We evaluated monthly patterns in BP medication prescription over 6 months and at 12 and 24 months after initiation. RESULTS: Prescription patterns varied by dialysis modality over the first 6 months; substantial proportions of patients with prescriptions for beta-blockers, renin angiotensin system agents, and dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers in month 6 no longer had prescriptions for these medications by month 24. Prescription of specific medication classes varied by comorbidity, race/ethnicity, and age, but little by sex. The mean number of medications was 2.5 at month 6 in hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: This study evaluates BP medication patterns in both hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis patients over the first 6 months of dialysis. Our findings highlight the challenges of assessing comparative effectiveness of a single BP medication class in dialysis patients. Longitudinal designs should be used to account for changes in BP medication management over time, and designs that incorporate common combinations should be considered.

Magnetophoretic circuits for digital control of single particles and cells.

The ability to manipulate small fluid droplets, colloidal particles and single cells with the precision and parallelization of modern-day computer hardware has profound applications for biochemical detection, gene sequencing, chemical synthesis and highly parallel analysis of single cells. Drawing inspiration from general circuit theory and magnetic bubble technology, here we demonstrate a class of integrated circuits for executing sequential and parallel, timed operations on an ensemble of single particles and cells. The integrated circuits are constructed from lithographically defined, overlaid patterns of magnetic film and current lines. The magnetic patterns passively control particles similar to electrical conductors, diodes and capacitors. The current lines actively switch particles between different tracks similar to gated electrical transistors. When combined into arrays and driven by a rotating magnetic field clock, these integrated circuits have general multiplexing properties and enable the precise control of magnetizable objects.

Impact of a Point-of-Care Rapid Influenza Test on Antibiotic Prescribing Patterns in Southern Sri Lanka

Background: Acute febrile respiratory illnesses, including influenza, account for a large proportion of ambulatory care visits worldwide. In the developed world, these encounters commonly result in unwarranted antibiotic prescriptions; data from more resource-limited settings are lacking. The purpose of this study was to describe the epidemiology of influenza among outpatients in southern Sri Lanka and to determine if access to rapid influenza test results was associated with decreased antibiotic prescriptions.

Methods: In this pretest- posttest study, consecutive patients presenting from March 2013- April 2014 to the Outpatient Department of the largest tertiary care hospital in southern Sri Lanka were surveyed for influenza-like illness (ILI). Patients meeting World Health Organization criteria for ILI-- acute onset of fever ≥38.0°C and cough in the prior 7 days--were enrolled. Consenting patients were administered a structured questionnaire, physical examination, and nasal/nasopharyngeal sampling. Rapid influenza A/B testing (Veritor System, Becton Dickinson) was performed on all patients, but test results were only released to patients and clinicians during the second phase of the study (December 2013- April 2014).

Results: We enrolled 397 patients with ILI, with 217 (54.7%) adults ≥12 years and 188 (47.4%) females. A total of 179 (45.8%) tested positive for influenza by rapid testing, with April- July 2013 and September- November 2013 being the periods with the highest proportion of ILI due to influenza. A total of 310 (78.1%) patients with ILI received a prescription for an antibiotic from their outpatient provider. The proportion of patients prescribed antibiotics decreased from 81.4% in the first phase to 66.3% in the second phase (p=.005); among rapid influenza-positive patients, antibiotic prescriptions decreased from 83.7% in the first phase to 56.3% in the second phase (p=.001). On multivariable analysis, having a positive rapid influenza test available to clinicians was associated with decreased antibiotic use (OR 0.20, 95% CI 0.05- 0.82).

Conclusions: Influenza virus accounted for almost 50% of acute febrile respiratory illness in this study, but most patients were prescribed antibiotics. Providing rapid influenza test results to clinicians was associated with fewer antibiotic prescriptions, but overall prescription of antibiotics remained high. In this developing country setting, a multi-faceted approach that includes improved access to rapid diagnostic tests may help decrease antibiotic use and combat antimicrobial resistance.

Macrosystems ecology: Understanding ecological patterns and processes at continental scales

Macrosystems ecology is the study of diverse ecological phenomena at the scale of regions to continents and their interactions with phenomena at other scales. This emerging subdiscipline addresses ecological questions and environmental problems at these broad scales. Here, we describe this new field, show how it relates to modern ecological study, and highlight opportunities that stem from taking a macrosystems perspective. We present a hierarchical framework for investigating macrosystems at any level of ecological organization and in relation to broader and finer scales. Building on well-established theory and concepts from other subdisciplines of ecology, we identify feedbacks, linkages among distant regions, and interactions that cross scales of space and time as the most likely sources of unexpected and novel behaviors in macrosystems. We present three examples that highlight the importance of this multiscaled systems perspective for understanding the ecology of regions to continents. © The Ecological Society of America.

Emergent group level navigation: an agent-based evaluation of movement patterns in a folivorous primate.

The foraging activity of many organisms reveal strategic movement patterns, showing efficient use of spatially distributed resources. The underlying mechanisms behind these movement patterns, such as the use of spatial memory, are topics of considerable debate. To augment existing evidence of spatial memory use in primates, we generated movement patterns from simulated primate agents with simple sensory and behavioral capabilities. We developed agents representing various hypotheses of memory use, and compared the movement patterns of simulated groups to those of an observed group of red colobus monkeys (Procolobus rufomitratus), testing for: the effects of memory type (Euclidian or landmark based), amount of memory retention, and the effects of social rules in making foraging choices at the scale of the group (independent or leader led). Our results indicate that red colobus movement patterns fit best with simulated groups that have landmark based memory and a follow the leader foraging strategy. Comparisons between simulated agents revealed that social rules had the greatest impact on a group's step length, whereas the type of memory had the highest impact on a group's path tortuosity and cohesion. Using simulation studies as experimental trials to test theories of spatial memory use allows the development of insight into the behavioral mechanisms behind animal movement, developing case-specific results, as well as general results informing how changes to perception and behavior influence movement patterns.

Radioactive in situ hybridization for detecting diverse gene expression patterns in tissue.

Knowing the timing, level, cellular localization, and cell type that a gene is expressed in contributes to our understanding of the function of the gene. Each of these features can be accomplished with in situ hybridization to mRNAs within cells. Here we present a radioactive in situ hybridization method modified from Clayton et al. (1988)(1) that has been working successfully in our lab for many years, especially for adult vertebrate brains(2-5). The long complementary RNA (cRNA) probes to the target sequence allows for detection of low abundance transcripts(6,7). Incorporation of radioactive nucleotides into the cRNA probes allows for further detection sensitivity of low abundance transcripts and quantitative analyses, either by light sensitive x-ray film or emulsion coated over the tissue. These detection methods provide a long-term record of target gene expression. Compared with non-radioactive probe methods, such as DIG-labeling, the radioactive probe hybridization method does not require multiple amplification steps using HRP-antibodies and/or TSA kit to detect low abundance transcripts. Therefore, this method provides a linear relation between signal intensity and targeted mRNA amounts for quantitative analysis. It allows processing 100-200 slides simultaneously. It works well for different developmental stages of embryos. Most developmental studies of gene expression use whole embryos and non-radioactive approaches(8,9), in part because embryonic tissue is more fragile than adult tissue, with less cohesion between cells, making it difficult to see boundaries between cell populations with tissue sections. In contrast, our radioactive approach, due to the larger range of sensitivity, is able to obtain higher contrast in resolution of gene expression between tissue regions, making it easier to see boundaries between populations. Using this method, researchers could reveal the possible significance of a newly identified gene, and further predict the function of the gene of interest.

Preschool anxiety disorders predict different patterns of amygdala-prefrontal connectivity at school-age.

OBJECTIVE: In this prospective, longitudinal study of young children, we examined whether a history of preschool generalized anxiety, separation anxiety, and/or social phobia is associated with amygdala-prefrontal dysregulation at school-age. As an exploratory analysis, we investigated whether distinct anxiety disorders differ in the patterns of this amygdala-prefrontal dysregulation. METHODS: Participants were children taking part in a 5-year study of early childhood brain development and anxiety disorders. Preschool symptoms of generalized anxiety, separation anxiety, and social phobia were assessed with the Preschool Age Psychiatric Assessment (PAPA) in the first wave of the study when the children were between 2 and 5 years old. The PAPA was repeated at age 6. We conducted functional MRIs when the children were 5.5 to 9.5 year old to assess neural responses to viewing of angry and fearful faces. RESULTS: A history of preschool social phobia predicted less school-age functional connectivity between the amygdala and the ventral prefrontal cortices to angry faces. Preschool generalized anxiety predicted less functional connectivity between the amygdala and dorsal prefrontal cortices in response to fearful faces. Finally, a history of preschool separation anxiety predicted less school-age functional connectivity between the amygdala and the ventral prefrontal cortices to angry faces and greater school-age functional connectivity between the amygdala and dorsal prefrontal cortices to angry faces. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that there are enduring neurobiological effects associated with a history of preschool anxiety, which occur over-and-above the effect of subsequent emotional symptoms. Our results also provide preliminary evidence for the neurobiological differentiation of specific preschool anxiety disorders.

Patterns of de novo allo B cells and antibody formation in chronic cardiac allograft rejection after alemtuzumab treatment.

Even though the etiology of chronic rejection (CR) is multifactorial, donor specific antibody (DSA) is considered to have a causal effect on CR development. Currently the antibody-mediated mechanisms during CR are poorly understood due to lack of proper animal models and tools. In a clinical setting, we previously demonstrated that induction therapy by lymphocyte depletion, using alemtuzumab (anti-human CD52), is associated with an increased incidence of serum alloantibody, C4d deposition and antibody-mediated rejection in human patients. In this study, the effects of T cell depletion in the development of antibody-mediated rejection were examined using human CD52 transgenic (CD52Tg) mice treated with alemtuzumab. Fully mismatched cardiac allografts were transplanted into alemtuzumab treated CD52Tg mice and showed no acute rejection while untreated recipients acutely rejected their grafts. However, approximately half of long-term recipients showed increased degree of vasculopathy, fibrosis and perivascular C3d depositions at posttransplant day 100. The development of CR correlated with DSA and C3d deposition in the graft. Using novel tracking tools to monitor donor-specific B cells, alloreactive B cells were shown to increase in accordance with DSA detection. The current animal model could provide a means of testing strategies to understand mechanisms and developing therapeutic approaches to prevent chronic rejection.

A model of sequential heart and composite tissue allotransplant in rats.

BACKGROUND: Some of the 600,000 patients with solid organ allotransplants need reconstruction with a composite tissue allotransplant, such as the hand, abdominal wall, or face. The aim of this study was to develop a rat model for assessing the effects of a secondary composite tissue allotransplant on a primary heart allotransplant. METHODS: Hearts of Wistar Kyoto rats were harvested and transplanted heterotopically to the neck of recipient Fisher 344 rats. The anastomoses were performed between the donor brachiocephalic artery and the recipient left common carotid artery, and between the donor pulmonary artery and the recipient external jugular vein. Recipients received cyclosporine A for 10 days only. Heart rate was assessed noninvasively. The sequential composite tissue allotransplant consisted of a 3 x 3-cm abdominal musculocutaneous flap harvested from Lewis rats and transplanted to the abdomen of the heart allotransplant recipients. The abdominal flap vessels were connected to the femoral vessels. No further immunosuppression was administered following the composite tissue allotransplant. Ten days after composite tissue allotransplantation, rejection of the heart and abdominal flap was assessed histologically. RESULTS: The rat survival rate of the two-stage transplant surgery was 80 percent. The transplanted heart rate decreased from 150 +/- 22 beats per minute immediately after transplant to 83 +/- 12 beats per minute on day 20 (10 days after stopping immunosuppression). CONCLUSIONS: This sequential allotransplant model is technically demanding. It will facilitate investigation of the effects of a secondary composite tissue allotransplant following primary solid organ transplantation and could be useful in developing future immunotherapeutic strategies.

Observations of spatial flow patterns at the coral colony scale on a shallow reef flat

Although small-scale spatial flow variability can affect both larger-scale circulation patterns and biological processes on coral reefs, there are few direct measurements of spatial flow patterns across horizontal scales <100 m. Here flow patterns on a shallow reef flat were measured at scales from a single colony to several adjacent colonies using an array of acoustic Doppler velocimeters on a diver-operated traverse. We observed recirculation zones immediately behind colonies, reduced currents and elevated dissipation rates in turbulent wakes up to 2 colony diameters downstream and enhanced Reynolds stresses in shear layers around wake peripheries. Flow acceleration zones were observed above and between colonies. Coherent flow structures varied with incident flow speeds; recirculation zones were stronger and wakes were more turbulent in faster flows. Low-frequency (<0.03 Hz) flow variations, for which water excursions were large compared with the colony diameters (Keulegan-Carpenter number, KC >1), had similarspatial patterns to wakes, while higher-frequency variations (0.05-0.1 Hz, KC<1) had no observable spatial structure. On the reef flat, both drag and inertial forces exerted by coral colonies could have significant effects on flow, but within different frequency ranges; drag dominates for low-frequency flow variations and inertial forces dominate for higher frequency variations, including the wave band. Our scaling analyses suggest that spatial flow patterns at colony and patch scales could have important implications or both physical and biological processes at larger reef scales through their effects on forces exerted on the flow, turbulent mixing, and dispersion. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.