Quantifying the value of improved wind energy forecasts in a pool-based electricity market

This work illustrates the influence of wind forecast errors on system costs, wind curtailment and generator dispatch in a system with high wind penetration. Realistic wind forecasts of different specified accuracy levels are created using an auto-regressive moving average model and these are then used in the creation of day-ahead unit commitment schedules. The schedules are generated for a model of the 2020 Irish electricity system with 33% wind penetration using both stochastic and deterministic approaches. Improvements in wind forecast accuracy are demonstrated to deliver: (i) clear savings in total system costs for deterministic and, to a lesser extent, stochastic scheduling; (ii) a decrease in the level of wind curtailment, with close agreement between stochastic and deterministic scheduling; and (iii) a decrease in the dispatch of open cycle gas turbine generation, evident with deterministic, and to a lesser extent, with stochastic scheduling.

Broadband optical cavity absorption spectroscopy in the near-ultraviolet: applications in atmospheric chemistry

A novel spectroscopic method, incoherent broadband cavity enhanced absorption spectroscopy (IBBCEAS), has been modified and extended to measure absorption spectra in the near-ultraviolet with high sensitivity. The near-ultraviolet region extends from 300 to 400 nm and is particularly important in tropospheric photochemistry; absorption of near-UV light can also be exploited for sensitive trace gas measurements of several key atmospheric constituents. In this work, several IBBCEAS instruments were developed to record reference spectra and to measure trace gas concentrations in the laboratory and field. An IBBCEAS instrument was coupled to a flow cell for measuring very weak absorption spectra between 335 and 375 nm. The instrument was validated against the literature absorption spectrum of SO2. Using the instrument, we report new absorption cross-sections of O3, acetone, 2-butanone, and 2-pentanone in this spectral region, where literature data diverge considerably owing to the extremely weak absorption. The instrument was also applied to quantifying low concentrations of the short-lived radical, BrO, in the presence of strong absorption by Br2 and O3. A different IBBCEAS system was adapted to a 4 m3 atmosphere simulation chamber to record the absorption cross-sections of several low vapour pressure compounds, which are otherwise difficult to measure. Absorption cross-sections of benzaldehyde and the more volatile alkyl nitrites agree well with previous spectra; on this basis, the cross-sections of several nitrophenols are reported for the first time. In addition, the instrument was also used to study the optical properties of secondary organic aerosol formed following the photooxidation of isoprene. An extractive IBBCEAS instrument was developed for detecting HONO and NO2 and had a sensitivity of about 10-9 cm-1. This instrument participated in a major international intercomparison of HONO and NO2 measurements held in the EUPHORE simulation chamber in Valencia, Spain, and results from that campaign are also reported here.

Isolation, characterization, and functional assessment of novel smooth muscle like stem progenitors

Vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMC) are one of the key players in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular diseases. The origin of neointimal VSMC has thus become a prime focus of research. VSMC originate from multiple progenitors cell types. In embryo the well-defined sources of VSMC include; neural crest cells, proepicardial cells and EPC. In adults, though progenitor cells from bone marrow (BM), circulation and tissues giving rise to SMC have been identified, no progress has been made in terms of isolating highly proliferative clonal population of adult stem cells with potential to differentiate into SMC. Smooth muscle like stem progenitor cells (SMSPC) were isolated from cardiopulmonary bypass filters of adult patients undergoing CABG. Rat SMSPC have previously been isolated by our group from the bone marrow of Fischer rats and also from the peripheral blood of monocrotaline induced pulmonary hypertension (MCT-PHTN) animal model. Characterization of novel SMSPC exhibited stem cell characteristics and machinery for differentiation into SMC. The expression of Isl-1 on SMSPC provided unique molecular identity to these circulating stem progenitor cells. The functional potential of SMSPC was determined by monitoring adoptive transfer of GFP+ SMSPC in rodent models of vascular injury; carotid injury and MCT-PHTN. The participation of SMSPC in vascular pathology was confirmed by quantifying the peripheral blood, and engrafted levels of SMSPC using RT-PCR. In terms of translating into clinical practice, SMSPC could be a good tool for detecting the atherosclerotic plaque burden. The current study demonstrates the existence of novel adult stem progenitor cells in circulation, with the potential role in vascular pathology.

Lower extremity amputation in people with diabetes: Trends and determinants

Introduction: The prevalence of diabetes is rising rapidly. Assessing quality of diabetes care is difficult. Lower Extremity Amputation (LEA) is recognised as a marker of the quality of diabetes care. The focus of this thesis was first to describe the trends in LEA rates in people with and without diabetes in the Republic of Ireland (RoI) in recent years and then, to explore the determinants of LEA in people with diabetes. While clinical and socio-demographic determinants have been well-established, the role of service-related factors has been less well-explored. Methods: Using hospital discharge data, trends in LEA rates in people with and without diabetes were described and compared to other countries. Background work included concordance studies exploring the reliability of hospital discharge data for recording LEA and diabetes and estimation of diabetes prevalence rates in the RoI from a nationally representative study (SLAN 2007). To explore determinants, a systematic review and meta-analysis assessed the effect of contact with a podiatrist on the outcome of LEA in people with diabetes. Finally, a case-control study using hospital discharge data explored determinants of LEA in people with diabetes with a particular focus on the timing of access to secondary healthcare services as a risk factor. Results: There are high levels of agreement between hospital discharge data and medical records for LEA and diabetes. Thus, hospital discharge data was deemed sufficiently reliable for use in this PhD thesis. A decrease in major diabetes-related LEA rates in people with diabetes was observed in the RoI from 2005-2012. In 2012, the relative risk of a person with diabetes undergoing a major LEA was 6.2 times (95% CI 4.8-8.1) that of a person without diabetes. Based on the systematic review and meta-analysis, contact with a podiatrist did not significantly affect the relative risk (RR) of LEA in people with diabetes. Results from the case-control study identified being single, documented CKD and documented hypertension as significant risk factors for LEA in people with diabetes whilst documented retinopathy was protective. Within the seven year time window included in the study, no association was detected between LEA in patients with diabetes and timing of patient access to secondary healthcare for diabetes management. Discussion: Many countries have reported reduced major LEA rates in people with diabetes coinciding with improved organisation of healthcare systems. Reassuringly, these first national estimates in people with diabetes in the RoI from 2005 to 2012 demonstrated reducing trends in major LEA rates. This may be attributable to changes in diabetes care and also, secular trends in smoking, dyslipidaemia and hypertension. Consistent with international practice, LEA trends data in Ireland can be used to monitor quality of care. Quantifying this improvement precisely, though, is problematic without robust denominator data on the prevalence of diabetes. However, a reduction in major diabetes-related LEA rates suggests improved quality of diabetes care. Much controversy exists around the reliability of hospital discharge data in the RoI. This thesis includes the first multi-site study to explore this issue and found hospital discharge data reliable for the reporting of the procedure of LEA and diagnosis of diabetes. This project did not detect protective effects of access to services including podiatry and secondary healthcare for LEA in people with diabetes. A major limitation of the systematic review and meta-analysis was the design and quality of the included studies. The data available in the area of effect of contact with a podiatrist on LEA risk are too sparse to say anything definitive about the efficacy of podiatry on LEA. Limitations of the case-control study include lack of a diabetes register in Ireland, restricted information from secondary healthcare and lack of data available from primary healthcare. Due to these issues, duration of disease could not be accounted for in the study which limits the conclusions that can be drawn from the results. The model of diabetes care in the RoI is currently undergoing a re-configuration with plans to introduce integrated care. In the future, trends in LEA rates should be continuously monitored to evaluate the effectiveness of changes to the healthcare system. Efforts are already underway to improve the availability of routine data from primary healthcare with the recent development of the iPCRN (Irish Primary Care Research Network). Linkage of primary and secondary healthcare records with a unique patient identifier should be the goal for the future.

Electrical machine characterisation and analysis for renewable energy applications

There has been an increased use of the Doubly-Fed Induction Machine (DFIM) in ac drive applications in recent times, particularly in the field of renewable energy systems and other high power variable-speed drives. The DFIM is widely regarded as the optimal generation system for both onshore and offshore wind turbines and has also been considered in wave power applications. Wind power generation is the most mature renewable technology. However, wave energy has attracted a large interest recently as the potential for power extraction is very significant. Various wave energy converter (WEC) technologies currently exist with the oscillating water column (OWC) type converter being one of the most advanced. There are fundemental differences in the power profile of the pneumatic power supplied by the OWC WEC and that of a wind turbine and this causes significant challenges in the selection and rating of electrical generators for the OWC devises. The thesis initially aims to provide an accurate per-phase equivalent circuit model of the DFIM by investigating various characterisation testing procedures. Novel testing methodologies based on the series-coupling tests is employed and is found to provide a more accurate representation of the DFIM than the standard IEEE testing methods because the series-coupling tests provide a direct method of determining the equivalent-circuit resistances and inductances of the machine. A second novel method known as the extended short-circuit test is also presented and investigated as an alternative characterisation method. Experimental results on a 1.1 kW DFIM and a 30 kW DFIM utilising the various characterisation procedures are presented in the thesis. The various test methods are analysed and validated through comparison of model predictions and torque-versus-speed curves for each induction machine. Sensitivity analysis is also used as a means of quantifying the effect of experimental error on the results taken from each of the testing procedures and is used to determine the suitability of the test procedures for characterising each of the devices. The series-coupling differential test is demonstrated to be the optimum test. The research then focuses on the OWC WEC and the modelling of this device. A software model is implemented based on data obtained from a scaled prototype device situated at the Irish test site. Test data from the electrical system of the device is analysed and this data is used to develop a performance curve for the air turbine utilised in the WEC. This performance curve was applied in a software model to represent the turbine in the electro-mechanical system and the software results are validated by the measured electrical output data from the prototype test device. Finally, once both the DFIM and OWC WEC power take-off system have been modeled succesfully, an investigation of the application of the DFIM to the OWC WEC model is carried out to determine the electrical machine rating required for the pulsating power derived from OWC WEC device. Thermal analysis of a 30 kW induction machine is carried out using a first-order thermal model. The simulations quantify the limits of operation of the machine and enable thedevelopment of rating requirements for the electrical generation system of the OWC WEC. The thesis can be considered to have three sections. The first section of the thesis contains Chapters 2 and 3 and focuses on the accurate characterisation of the doubly-fed induction machine using various testing procedures. The second section, containing Chapter 4, concentrates on the modelling of the OWC WEC power-takeoff with particular focus on the Wells turbine. Validation of this model is carried out through comparision of simulations and experimental measurements. The third section of the thesis utilises the OWC WEC model from Chapter 4 with a 30 kW induction machine model to determine the optimum device rating for the specified machine. Simulations are carried out to perform thermal analysis of the machine to give a general insight into electrical machine rating for an OWC WEC device.