13 resultados para quantifying

em CaltechTHESIS


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Be it a physical object or a mathematical model, a nonlinear dynamical system can display complicated aperiodic behavior, or "chaos." In many cases, this chaos is associated with motion on a strange attractor in the system's phase space. And the dimension of the strange attractor indicates the effective number of degrees of freedom in the dynamical system.

In this thesis, we investigate numerical issues involved with estimating the dimension of a strange attractor from a finite time series of measurements on the dynamical system.

Of the various definitions of dimension, we argue that the correlation dimension is the most efficiently calculable and we remark further that it is the most commonly calculated. We are concerned with the practical problems that arise in attempting to compute the correlation dimension. We deal with geometrical effects (due to the inexact self-similarity of the attractor), dynamical effects (due to the nonindependence of points generated by the dynamical system that defines the attractor), and statistical effects (due to the finite number of points that sample the attractor). We propose a modification of the standard algorithm, which eliminates a specific effect due to autocorrelation, and a new implementation of the correlation algorithm, which is computationally efficient.

Finally, we apply the algorithm to chaotic data from the Caltech tokamak and the Texas tokamak (TEXT); we conclude that plasma turbulence is not a low- dimensional phenomenon.

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Within the microcosm of information theory, I explore what it means for a system to be functionally irreducible. This is operationalized as quantifying the extent to which cooperative or “synergistic” effects enable random variables X1, ... , Xn to predict (have mutual information about) a single target random variable Y . In Chapter 1, we introduce the problem with some emblematic examples. In Chapter 2, we show how six different measures from the existing literature fail to quantify this notion of synergistic mutual information. In Chapter 3 we take a step towards a measure of synergy which yields the first nontrivial lowerbound on synergistic mutual information. In Chapter 4, we find that synergy is but the weakest notion of a broader concept of irreducibility. In Chapter 5, we apply our results from Chapters 3 and 4 towards grounding Giulio Tononi’s ambitious φ measure which attempts to quantify the magnitude of consciousness experience.

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Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

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This thesis examines collapse risk of tall steel braced frame buildings using rupture-to-rafters simulations due to suite of San Andreas earthquakes. Two key advancements in this work are the development of (i) a rational methodology for assigning scenario earthquake probabilities and (ii) an artificial correction-free approach to broadband ground motion simulation. The work can be divided into the following sections: earthquake source modeling, earthquake probability calculations, ground motion simulations, building response, and performance analysis.

As a first step the kinematic source inversions of past earthquakes in the magnitude range of 6-8 are used to simulate 60 scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. For each scenario earthquake a 30-year occurrence probability is calculated and we present a rational method to redistribute the forecast earthquake probabilities from UCERF to the simulated scenario earthquake. We illustrate the inner workings of the method through an example involving earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in southern California.

Next, three-component broadband ground motion histories are computed at 636 sites in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area by superposing short-period (0.2~s-2.0~s) empirical Green's function synthetics on top of long-period ($>$ 2.0~s) spectral element synthetics. We superimpose these seismograms on low-frequency seismograms, computed from kinematic source models using the spectral element method, to produce broadband seismograms.

Using the ground motions at 636 sites for the 60 scenario earthquakes, 3-D nonlinear analysis of several variants of an 18-story steel braced frame building, designed for three soil types using the 1994 and 1997 Uniform Building Code provisions and subjected to these ground motions, are conducted. Model performance is classified into one of five performance levels: Immediate Occupancy, Life Safety, Collapse Prevention, Red-Tagged, and Model Collapse. The results are combined with the 30-year probability of occurrence of the San Andreas scenario earthquakes using the PEER performance based earthquake engineering framework to determine the probability of exceedance of these limit states over the next 30 years.

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There is a sparse number of credible source models available from large-magnitude past earthquakes. A stochastic source model generation algorithm thus becomes necessary for robust risk quantification using scenario earthquakes. We present an algorithm that combines the physics of fault ruptures as imaged in laboratory earthquakes with stress estimates on the fault constrained by field observations to generate stochastic source models for large-magnitude (Mw 6.0-8.0) strike-slip earthquakes. The algorithm is validated through a statistical comparison of synthetic ground motion histories from a stochastically generated source model for a magnitude 7.90 earthquake and a kinematic finite-source inversion of an equivalent magnitude past earthquake on a geometrically similar fault. The synthetic dataset comprises of three-component ground motion waveforms, computed at 636 sites in southern California, for ten hypothetical rupture scenarios (five hypocenters, each with two rupture directions) on the southern San Andreas fault. A similar validation exercise is conducted for a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, the lower magnitude limit for the algorithm. Additionally, ground motions from the Mw7.9 earthquake simulations are compared against predictions by the Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA relation as well as the ShakeOut scenario earthquake. The algorithm is then applied to generate fifty source models for a hypothetical magnitude 7.9 earthquake originating at Parkfield, with rupture propagating from north to south (towards Wrightwood), similar to the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Using the spectral element method, three-component ground motion waveforms are computed in the Los Angeles basin for each scenario earthquake and the sensitivity of ground shaking intensity to seismic source parameters (such as the percentage of asperity area relative to the fault area, rupture speed, and risetime) is studied.

Under plausible San Andreas fault earthquakes in the next 30 years, modeled using the stochastic source algorithm, the performance of two 18-story steel moment frame buildings (UBC 1982 and 1997 designs) in southern California is quantified. The approach integrates rupture-to-rafters simulations into the PEER performance based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Using stochastic sources and computational seismic wave propagation, three-component ground motion histories at 636 sites in southern California are generated for sixty scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. The ruptures, with moment magnitudes in the range of 6.0-8.0, are assumed to occur at five locations on the southern section of the fault. Two unilateral rupture propagation directions are considered. The 30-year probabilities of all plausible ruptures in this magnitude range and in that section of the fault, as forecast by the United States Geological Survey, are distributed among these 60 earthquakes based on proximity and moment release. The response of the two 18-story buildings hypothetically located at each of the 636 sites under 3-component shaking from all 60 events is computed using 3-D nonlinear time-history analysis. Using these results, the probability of the structural response exceeding Immediate Occupancy (IO), Life-Safety (LS), and Collapse Prevention (CP) performance levels under San Andreas fault earthquakes over the next thirty years is evaluated.

Furthermore, the conditional and marginal probability distributions of peak ground velocity (PGV) and displacement (PGD) in Los Angeles and surrounding basins due to earthquakes occurring primarily on the mid-section of southern San Andreas fault are determined using Bayesian model class identification. Simulated ground motions at sites within 55-75km from the source from a suite of 60 earthquakes (Mw 6.0 − 8.0) primarily rupturing mid-section of San Andreas fault are considered for PGV and PGD data.

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The forces cells apply to their surroundings control biological processes such as growth, adhesion, development, and migration. In the past 20 years, a number of experimental techniques have been developed to measure such cell tractions. These approaches have primarily measured the tractions applied by cells to synthetic two-dimensional substrates, which do not mimic in vivo conditions for most cell types. Many cell types live in a fibrous three-dimensional (3D) matrix environment. While studying cell behavior in such 3D matrices will provide valuable insights for the mechanobiology and tissue engineering communities, no experimental approaches have yet measured cell tractions in a fibrous 3D matrix.

This thesis describes the development and application of an experimental technique for quantifying cellular forces in a natural 3D matrix. Cells and their surrounding matrix are imaged in three dimensions with high speed confocal microscopy. The cell-induced matrix displacements are computed from the 3D image volumes using digital volume correlation. The strain tensor in the 3D matrix is computed by differentiating the displacements, and the stress tensor is computed by applying a constitutive law. Finally, tractions applied by the cells to the matrix are computed directly from the stress tensor.

The 3D traction measurement approach is used to investigate how cells mechanically interact with the matrix in biologically relevant processes such as division and invasion. During division, a single mother cell undergoes a drastic morphological change to split into two daughter cells. In a 3D matrix, dividing cells apply tensile force to the matrix through thin, persistent extensions that in turn direct the orientation and location of the daughter cells. Cell invasion into a 3D matrix is the first step required for cell migration in three dimensions. During invasion, cells initially apply minimal tractions to the matrix as they extend thin protrusions into the matrix fiber network. The invading cells anchor themselves to the matrix using these protrusions, and subsequently pull on the matrix to propel themselves forward.

Lastly, this thesis describes a constitutive model for the 3D fibrous matrix that uses a finite element (FE) approach. The FE model simulates the fibrous microstructure of the matrix and matches the cell-induced matrix displacements observed experimentally using digital volume correlation. The model is applied to predict how cells mechanically sense one another in a 3D matrix. It is found that cell-induced matrix displacements localize along linear paths. These linear paths propagate over a long range through the fibrous matrix, and provide a mechanism for cell-cell signaling and mechanosensing. The FE model developed here has the potential to reveal the effects of matrix density, inhomogeneity, and anisotropy in signaling cell behavior through mechanotransduction.

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The two most important digital-system design goals today are to reduce power consumption and to increase reliability. Reductions in power consumption improve battery life in the mobile space and reductions in energy lower operating costs in the datacenter. Increased robustness and reliability shorten down time, improve yield, and are invaluable in the context of safety-critical systems. While optimizing towards these two goals is important at all design levels, optimizations at the circuit level have the furthest reaching effects; they apply to all digital systems. This dissertation presents a study of robust minimum-energy digital circuit design and analysis. It introduces new device models, metrics, and methods of calculation—all necessary first steps towards building better systems—and demonstrates how to apply these techniques. It analyzes a fabricated chip (a full-custom QDI microcontroller designed at Caltech and taped-out in 40-nm silicon) by calculating the minimum energy operating point and quantifying the chip’s robustness in the face of both timing and functional failures.

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The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in the United States is constantly changing and evolving, starting from patient zero to now an estimated 650,000 to 900,000 Americans infected. The nature and course of HIV changed dramatically with the introduction of antiretrovirals. This discourse examines many different facets of HIV from the beginning where there wasn't any treatment for HIV until the present era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). By utilizing statistical analysis of clinical data, this paper examines where we were, where we are and projections as to where treatment of HIV/AIDS is headed.

Chapter Two describes the datasets that were used for the analyses. The primary database utilized was collected by myself from an outpatient HIV clinic. The data included dates from 1984 until the present. The second database was from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) public dataset. The data from the MACS cover the time between 1984 and October 1992. Comparisons are made between both datasets.

Chapter Three discusses where we were. Before the first anti-HIV drugs (called antiretrovirals) were approved, there was no treatment to slow the progression of HIV. The first generation of antiretrovirals, reverse transcriptase inhibitors such as AZT (zidovudine), DDI (didanosine), DDC (zalcitabine), and D4T (stavudine) provided the first treatment for HIV. The first clinical trials showed that these antiretrovirals had a significant impact on increasing patient survival. The trials also showed that patients on these drugs had increased CD4+ T cell counts. Chapter Three examines the distributions of CD4 T cell counts. The results show that the estimated distributions of CD4 T cell counts are distinctly non-Gaussian. Thus distributional assumptions regarding CD4 T cell counts must be taken, into account when performing analyses with this marker. The results also show the estimated CD4 T cell distributions for each disease stage: asymptomatic, symptomatic and AIDS are non-Gaussian. Interestingly, the distribution of CD4 T cell counts for the asymptomatic period is significantly below that of the CD4 T cell distribution for the uninfected population suggesting that even in patients with no outward symptoms of HIV infection, there exists high levels of immunosuppression.

Chapter Four discusses where we are at present. HIV quickly grew resistant to reverse transcriptase inhibitors which were given sequentially as mono or dual therapy. As resistance grew, the positive effects of the reverse transcriptase inhibitors on CD4 T cell counts and survival dissipated. As the old era faded a new era characterized by a new class of drugs and new technology changed the way that we treat HIV-infected patients. Viral load assays were able to quantify the levels of HIV RNA in the blood. By quantifying the viral load, one now had a faster, more direct way to test antiretroviral regimen efficacy. Protease inhibitors, which attacked a different region of HIV than reverse transcriptase inhibitors, when used in combination with other antiretroviral agents were found to dramatically and significantly reduce the HIV RNA levels in the blood. Patients also experienced significant increases in CD4 T cell counts. For the first time in the epidemic, there was hope. It was hypothesized that with HAART, viral levels could be kept so low that the immune system as measured by CD4 T cell counts would be able to recover. If these viral levels could be kept low enough, it would be possible for the immune system to eradicate the virus. The hypothesis of immune reconstitution, that is bringing CD4 T cell counts up to levels seen in uninfected patients, is tested in Chapter Four. It was found that for these patients, there was not enough of a CD4 T cell increase to be consistent with the hypothesis of immune reconstitution.

In Chapter Five, the effectiveness of long-term HAART is analyzed. Survival analysis was conducted on 213 patients on long-term HAART. The primary endpoint was presence of an AIDS defining illness. A high level of clinical failure, or progression to an endpoint, was found.

Chapter Six yields insights into where we are going. New technology such as viral genotypic testing, that looks at the genetic structure of HIV and determines where mutations have occurred, has shown that HIV is capable of producing resistance mutations that confer multiple drug resistance. This section looks at resistance issues and speculates, ceterus parabis, where the state of HIV is going. This section first addresses viral genotype and the correlates of viral load and disease progression. A second analysis looks at patients who have failed their primary attempts at HAART and subsequent salvage therapy. It was found that salvage regimens, efforts to control viral replication through the administration of different combinations of antiretrovirals, were not effective in 90 percent of the population in controlling viral replication. Thus, primary attempts at therapy offer the best change of viral suppression and delay of disease progression. Documentation of transmission of drug-resistant virus suggests that the public health crisis of HIV is far from over. Drug resistant HIV can sustain the epidemic and hamper our efforts to treat HIV infection. The data presented suggest that the decrease in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS is transient. Deaths due to HIV will increase and public health officials must prepare for this eventuality unless new treatments become available. These results also underscore the importance of the vaccine effort.

The final chapter looks at the economic issues related to HIV. The direct and indirect costs of treating HIV/AIDS are very high. For the first time in the epidemic, there exists treatment that can actually slow disease progression. The direct costs for HAART are estimated. It is estimated that the direct lifetime costs for treating each HIV infected patient with HAART is between $353,000 to $598,000 depending on how long HAART prolongs life. If one looks at the incremental cost per year of life saved it is only $101,000. This is comparable with the incremental costs per year of life saved from coronary artery bypass surgery.

Policy makers need to be aware that although HAART can delay disease progression, it is not a cure and HIV is not over. The results presented here suggest that the decreases in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV are transient. Policymakers need to be prepared for the eventual increase in AIDS incidence and mortality. Costs associated with HIV/AIDS are also projected to increase. The cost savings seen recently have been from the dramatic decreases in the incidence of AIDS defining opportunistic infections. As patients who have been on HAART the longest start to progress to AIDS, policymakers and insurance companies will find that the cost of treating HIV/AIDS will increase.

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The LIGO and Virgo gravitational-wave observatories are complex and extremely sensitive strain detectors that can be used to search for a wide variety of gravitational waves from astrophysical and cosmological sources. In this thesis, I motivate the search for the gravitational wave signals from coalescing black hole binary systems with total mass between 25 and 100 solar masses. The mechanisms for formation of such systems are not well-understood, and we do not have many observational constraints on the parameters that guide the formation scenarios. Detection of gravitational waves from such systems — or, in the absence of detection, the tightening of upper limits on the rate of such coalescences — will provide valuable information that can inform the astrophysics of the formation of these systems. I review the search for these systems and place upper limits on the rate of black hole binary coalescences with total mass between 25 and 100 solar masses. I then show how the sensitivity of this search can be improved by up to 40% by the the application of the multivariate statistical classifier known as a random forest of bagged decision trees to more effectively discriminate between signal and non-Gaussian instrumental noise. I also discuss the use of this classifier in the search for the ringdown signal from the merger of two black holes with total mass between 50 and 450 solar masses and present upper limits. I also apply multivariate statistical classifiers to the problem of quantifying the non-Gaussianity of LIGO data. Despite these improvements, no gravitational-wave signals have been detected in LIGO data so far. However, the use of multivariate statistical classification can significantly improve the sensitivity of the Advanced LIGO detectors to such signals.

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The specific high energy and power capacities of rechargeable lithium metal (Li0) batteries are ideally suited to portable devices and are valuable as storage units for intermittent renewable energy sources. Lithium, the lightest and most electropositive metal, would be the optimal anode material for rechargeable batteries if it were not for the fact that such devices fail unexpectedly by short-circuiting via the dendrites that grow across electrodes upon recharging. This phenomenon poses a major safety issue because it triggers a series of adverse events that start with overheating, potentially followed by the thermal decomposition and ultimately the ignition of the organic solvents used in such devices.

In this thesis, we developed experimental platform for monitoring and quantifying the dendrite populations grown in a Li battery prototype upon charging under various conditions. We explored the effects of pulse charging in the kHz range and temperature on dendrite growth, and also on loss capacity into detached “dead” lithium particles.

Simultaneously, we developed a computational framework for understanding the dynamics of dendrite propagation. The coarse-grained Monte Carlo model assisted us in the interpretation of pulsing experiments, whereas MD calculations provided insights into the mechanism of dendrites thermal relaxation. We also developed a computational framework for measuring the dead lithium crystals from the experimental images.

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Bio-orthogonal non-canonical amino acid tagging (BONCAT) is an analytical method that allows the selective analysis of the subset of newly synthesized cellular proteins produced in response to a biological stimulus. In BONCAT, cells are treated with the non-canonical amino acid L-azidohomoalanine (Aha), which is utilized in protein synthesis in place of methionine by wild-type translational machinery. Nascent, Aha-labeled proteins are selectively ligated to affinity tags for enrichment and subsequently identified via mass spectrometry. The work presented in this thesis exhibits advancements in and applications of the BONCAT technology that establishes it as an effective tool for analyzing proteome dynamics with time-resolved precision.

Chapter 1 introduces the BONCAT method and serves as an outline for the thesis as a whole. I discuss motivations behind the methodological advancements in Chapter 2 and the biological applications in Chapters 2 and 3.

Chapter 2 presents methodological developments that make BONCAT a proteomic tool capable of, in addition to identifying newly synthesized proteins, accurately quantifying rates of protein synthesis. I demonstrate that this quantitative BONCAT approach can measure proteome-wide patterns of protein synthesis at time scales inaccessible to alternative techniques.

In Chapter 3, I use BONCAT to study the biological function of the small RNA regulator CyaR in Escherichia coli. I correctly identify previously known CyaR targets, and validate several new CyaR targets, expanding the functional roles of the sRNA regulator.

In Chapter 4, I use BONCAT to measure the proteomic profile of the quorum sensing bacterium Vibrio harveyi during the time-dependent transition from individual- to group-behaviors. My analysis reveals new quorum-sensing-regulated proteins with diverse functions, including transcription factors, chemotaxis proteins, transport proteins, and proteins involved in iron homeostasis.

Overall, this work describes how to use BONCAT to perform quantitative, time-resolved proteomic analysis and demonstrates that these measurements can be used to study a broad range of biological processes.

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Measurements and modeling of Cu2Se, Ag2Se, and Cu2S show that superionic conductors have great potential as thermoelectric materials. Cu2Se and Ag2Se are predicted to reach a zT of 1.2 at room temperature if their carrier concentrations can be reduced, and Cu-vacancy doped Cu2S reaches a maximum zT of 1.7 at 1000 K. Te-doped Ag2Se achieves a zT of 1.2 at 520 K, and could reach a zT of 1.7 if its carrier concentration could be reduced. However, superionic conductors tend to have high carrier concentrations due to the presence of metal defects. The carrier concentration has been found to be difficult to reduce by altering the defect concentration, therefore materials that are underdoped relative to the optimum carrier concentration are easier to optimize. The results of Te-doping of Ag2Se show that reducing the carrier concentration is possible by reducing the maximum Fermi level in the material.

Two new methods for analyzing thermoelectric transport data were developed. The first involves scaling the temperature-dependent transport data according to the temperature dependences expected of a single parabolic band model and using all of the scaled data to perform a single parabolic band analysis, instead of being restricted to using one data point per sample at a fixed temperature. This allows for a more efficient use of the transport data. The second involves scaling only the Seebeck coefficient and electrical conductivity. This allows for an estimate of the quality factor (and therefore the maximum zT in the material) without using Hall effect data, which are not always available due to time and budget constraints and are difficult to obtain in high-resistivity materials. Methods for solving the coherent potential approximation effective medium equations were developed in conjunction with measurements of the resistivity tensor elements of composite materials. This allows the electrical conductivity and mobility of each phase in the composite to be determined from measurements of the bulk. This points out a new method for measuring the pure-phase electrical properties in impure materials, for measuring the electrical properties of unknown phases in composites, and for quantifying the effects of quantum interactions in composites.

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In this thesis we study the growth of a Li electrode-electrolyte interface in the presence of an elastic prestress. In particular, we focus our interest on Li-air batteries with a solid electrolyte, LIPON, which is a new type of secondary or rechargeable battery. Theoretical studies and experimental evidence show that during the process of charging the battery the replated lithium adds unevenly to the electrode surface. This phenomenon eventually leads to dendrite formation as the battery is charged and discharged numerous times. In order to suppress or alleviate this deleterious effect of dendrite growth, we put forth a study based on a linear stability analysis. Taking into account all the mechanisms of mass transport and interfacial kinetics, we model the evolution of the interface. We find that, in the absence of stress, the stability of a planar interface depends on interfacial diffusion properties and interfacial energy. Specifically, if Herring-Mullins capillarity-driven interfacial diffusion is accounted for, interfaces are unstable against all perturbations of wavenumber larger than a critical value. We find that the effect of an elastic prestress is always to stabilize planar interfacial growth by increasing the critical wavenumber for instability. A parametric study results in quantifying the extent of the prestress stabilization in a manner that can potentially be used in the design of Li-air batteries. Moreover, employing the theory of finite differences we numerically solve the equation that describes the evolution of the surface profile and present visualization results of the surface evolution by time. Lastly, numerical simulations performed in a commercial finite element software validate the theoretical formulation of the interfacial elastic energy change with respect to the planar interface.