5 resultados para Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

em CORA - Cork Open Research Archive - University College Cork - Ireland


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The administration of psychotropic and psychoactive medication for persons with learning disability and accompanying mental illness and/or challenging behaviour has undergone much critical review over the past two decades. Assessment and diagnosis of mental illness in this population continues to be psychopharmacological treatment include polypharmacy, irrational prescription procedures and frequent over-prescription. It is clear that all forms of treatment including non-pharmacological interventions need to be driven by accurate and appropriate diagnoses. Where a psychiatric diagnosis has been identified, it greatly aides the selection of appropriate medication, although a specific medication for each diagnosis, as was once hoped, is simply no longer a reality in practice. Part one of the present thesis seeks to address many of the current issues in mental health problems and pharmacological treatment to date. The author undertook a drug prevalence study within both residential and community facilities for persons with learning disability within the Mid-West region of Ireland in order to ascertain the current level of prescribing of psychotropic and psychoactive medications for this population. While many attempts have been made to account for the variation in prescribing, little systematic and empirical research has been undertaken to investigate the factors thought to influence such prescribing. While studies investigating the prescribing behaviours of General Practitioners (GP's) have illustrated the complex nature of the decision making process in the context of general practice, no similar efforts have yet been directed at examining the prescribing behaviours of Consultant Psychiatrists. Using The Critical Incident Technique, the author interviewed Consultant Psychiatrists in the Republic of Ireland to gather information relating not only to their patterns of prescribing for learning disabled populations, but also to examine reasons influencing their prescribing in addition to several related factors. Part two of this thesis presents the findings from this study and a number of issues are raised, not only in relation to attempting to account for the findings from part one of the thesis, but also with respect to implications for improved management and clinical practice.

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This study sets out to investigate the psychology of immersion and the immersive response of individuals in relation to video and computer games. Initially, an exhaustive review of literature is presented, including research into games, player demographics, personality and identity. Play in traditional psychology is also reviewed, as well as previous research into immersion and attempts to define and measure this construct. An online qualitative study was carried out (N=38), and data was analysed using content analysis. A definition of immersion emerged, as well as a classification of two separate types of immersion, namely, vicarious immersion and visceral immersion. A survey study (N=217) verified the discrete nature of these categories and rejected the null hypothesis that there was no difference between individuals' interpretations of vicarious and visceral immersion. The primary aim of this research was to create a quantitative instrument which measures the immersive response as experienced by the player in a single game session. The IMX Questionnaire was developed using data from the initial qualitative study and quantitative survey. Exploratory Factor Analysis was carried out on data from 300 participants for the IMX Version 1, and Confirmatory Factor Analysis was conducted on data from 380 participants on the IMX Version 2. IMX Version 3 was developed from the results of these analyses. This questionnaire was found to have high internal consistency reliability and validity.

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Cerium dioxide (ceria) nanoparticles have been the subject of intense academic and industrial interest. Ceria has a host of applications but academic interest largely stems from their use in the modern automotive catalyst but it is also of interest because of many other application areas notably as the abrasive in chemical-mechanical planarisation of silicon substrates. Recently, ceria has been the focus of research investigating health effects of nanoparticles. Importantly, the role of non-stoichiometry in ceria nanoparticles is implicated in their biochemistry. Ceria has well understood non-stoichiometry based around the ease of formation of anion vacancies and these can form ordered superstructures based around the fluorite lattice structure exhibited by ceria. The anion vacancies are associated with localised or small polaron states formed by the electrons that remain after oxygen desorption. In simple terms these electrons combine with Ce4+ states to form Ce3+ states whose larger ionic radii is associated with a lattice expansion compared to stoichiometric CeO2. This is a very simplistic explanation and greater defect chemistry complexity is suggested by more recent work. Various authors have shown that vacancies are mobile and may result in vacancy clustering. Ceria nanoparticles are of particular interest because of the high activity and surface area of small particulates. The sensitivity of the cerium electronic band structure to environment would suggest that changes in the properties of ceria particles at nanoscale dimensions might be expected. Notably many authors report a lattice expansion with reducing particle size (largely confined to sub-10 nm particles). Most authors assign increased lattice dimensions to the presence of a surface stable Ce2O3 type layer at low nanoparticle dimensions. However, our understanding of oxide nanoparticles is limited and their full and quantitative characterisation offers serious challenges. In a series of chemical preparations by ourselves we see little evidence of a consistent model emerging to explain lattice parameter changes with nanoparticle size. Based on these results and a review of the literature it is worthwhile asking if a model of surface enhanced defect concentration is consistent with known cerium/cerium oxide chemistries, whether this is applicable to a range of different synthesis methods and if a more consistent description is possible. In Chapter one the science of cerium oxide is outlined including the crystal structure, defect chemistry and different oxidation states available. The uses and applications of cerium oxide are also discussed as well as modelling of the lattice parameter and the doping of the ceria lattice. Chapter two describes both the synthesis techniques and the analytical methods employed to execute this research. Chapter three focuses on high surface area ceria nano-particles and how these have been prepared using a citrate sol-gel precipitation method. Changes to the particle size have been made by calcining the ceria powders at different temperatures. X-ray diffraction methods were used to determine their lattice parameters. The particles sizes were also assessed using transmission electron microscopy (TEM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and BET, and, the lattice parameter was found to decrease with decreasing particle size. The results are discussed in light of the role played by surface tension effects. Chapter four describes the morphological and structural characterization of crystalline CeO2 nanoparticles prepared by forward and reverse precipitation techniques and compares these by powder x-ray diffraction (PXRD), nitrogen adsorption (BET) and high resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) analysis. The two routes give quite different materials although in both cases the products are essentially highly crystalline, dense particulates. It was found that the reverse precipitation technique gave the smallest crystallites with the narrowest size dispersion. This route also gave as-synthesised materials with higher surface areas. HRTEM confirmed the observations made from PXRD data and showed that the two methods resulted in quite different morphologies and surface chemistries. The forward route gives products with significantly greater densities of Ce3+ species compared to the reverse route. Data are explained using known precipitation chemistry and kinetic effects. Chapter five centres on the addition of terbia to ceria and has been investigated using XRD, XRF, XPS and TEM. Good solid solutions were formed across the entire composition range and there was no evidence for the formation of mixed phases or surface segregation over either the composition or temperature range investigated. Both Tb3+ and Tb4+ ions exist within the solution and the ratios of these cations are consistent with the addition of Tb8O15 to the fluorite ceria structure across a wide range of compositions. Local regions of anion vacancy ordering may be visible for small crystallites. There is no evidence of significant Ce3+ ion concentrations formed at the surface or in the bulk by the addition of terbia. The lattice parameter of these materials was seen to decrease with decreasing crystallite size. This is consistent with increased surface tension effects at small dimension. Chapter six reviews size related lattice parameter changes and surface defects in ceria nanocrystals. Ceria (CeO2) has many important applications, notably in catalysis. Many of its uses rely on generating nanodimensioned particles. Ceria has important redox chemistry where Ce4+ cations can be reversibly reduced to Ce3+ cations and associated anion vacancies. The significantly larger size of Ce3+ (compared with Ce4+) has been shown to result in lattice expansion. Many authors have observed lattice expansion in nanodimensioned crystals (nanocrystals), and these have been attributed to the presence of stabilized Ce3+ -anion vacancy combinations in these systems. Experimental results presented here show (i) that significant, but complex changes in the lattice parameter with size can occur in 2-500 nm crystallites, (ii) that there is a definitive relationship between defect chemistry and the lattice parameter in ceria nanocrystals, and (iii) that the stabilizing mechanism for the Ce3+ -anion vacancy defects at the surface of ceria nanocrystals is determined by the size, the surface status, and the analysis conditions. In this work, both lattice expansion and a more unusual lattice contraction in ultrafine nanocrystals are observed. The lattice deformations seen can be defined as a function of both the anion vacancy (hydroxyl) concentration in the nanocrystal and the intensity of the additional pressure imposed by the surface tension on the crystal. The expansion of lattice parameters in ceria nanocrystals is attributed to a number of factors, most notably, the presence of any hydroxyl moieties in the materials. Thus, a very careful understanding of the synthesis combined with characterization is required to understand the surface chemistry of ceria nanocrystals.

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This work illustrates the influence of wind forecast errors on system costs, wind curtailment and generator dispatch in a system with high wind penetration. Realistic wind forecasts of different specified accuracy levels are created using an auto-regressive moving average model and these are then used in the creation of day-ahead unit commitment schedules. The schedules are generated for a model of the 2020 Irish electricity system with 33% wind penetration using both stochastic and deterministic approaches. Improvements in wind forecast accuracy are demonstrated to deliver: (i) clear savings in total system costs for deterministic and, to a lesser extent, stochastic scheduling; (ii) a decrease in the level of wind curtailment, with close agreement between stochastic and deterministic scheduling; and (iii) a decrease in the dispatch of open cycle gas turbine generation, evident with deterministic, and to a lesser extent, with stochastic scheduling.

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This thesis argues that examining the attitudes, perceptions, behaviors, and knowledge of a community towards their specific watershed can reveal their social vulnerability to climate change. Understanding and incorporating these elements of the human dimension in coastal zone management will lead to efficient and effective strategies that safeguard the natural resources for the benefit of the community. By having healthy natural resources, ecological and community resilience to climate change will increase, thus decreasing vulnerability. In the Pacific Ocean, climate and SLR are strongly modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation. SLR is three times the global average in the Western Pacific Ocean (Merrifield and Maltrud 2011; Merrifield 2011). Changes in annual rainfall in the Western North Pacific sub‐region from 1950-2010 show that islands in the east are getting much less than in the past, while the islands in the west are getting slightly more rainfall (Keener et al. 2013). For Guam, a small island owned by the United States and located in the Western Pacific Ocean, these factors mean that SLR is higher than any other place in the world and will most likely see increased precipitation. Knowing this, the social vulnerability may be examined. Thus, a case-study of the community residing in the Manell and Geus watersheds was conducted on the island of Guam. Measuring their perceptions, attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors should bring to light their vulnerability to climate change. In order to accomplish this, a household survey was administered from July through August 2010. Approximately 350 surveys were analysed using SPSS. To supplement this quantitative data, informal interviews were conducted with the elders of the community to glean traditional ecological knowledge about perceived climate change. A GIS analysis was conducted to understand the physical geography of the Manell and Geus watersheds. This information about the human dimension is valuable to CZM managers. It may be incorporated into strategic watershed plans, to better administer the natural resources within the coastal zone. The research conducted in this thesis is the basis of a recent watershed management plan for the Guam Coastal Management Program (see King 2014).