Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

The use of different blood sample preparations in the development of biomarkers for the environmental monitoring of domestic farm animals

The application of biological effect monitoring for the detection of environmental chemical exposure in domestic animals is still in its infancy. This study investigated blood sample preparations in vitro for their use in biological effect monitoring. When peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs), isolated following the collection of multiple blood samples from sheep in the field, were cryopreserved and subsequently cultured for 24 hours a reduction in cell viability (<80%) was attributed to delays in the processing following collection. Alternative blood sample preparations using rat and sheep blood demonstrated that 3 to 5 hour incubations can be undertaken without significant alterations in the viability of the lymphocytes; however, a substantial reduction in viability was observed after 24 hours in frozen blood. Detectable levels of early and late apoptosis as well as increased levels of ROS were detectable in frozen sheep blood samples. The addition of ascorbic acid partly reversed this effect and reduced the loss in cell viability. The response of the rat and sheep blood sample preparations to genotoxic compounds ex vivo showed that EMS caused comparable dose-dependent genotoxic effects in all sample preparations (fresh and frozen) as detected by the Comet assay. In contrast, the effects of CdCl2 were dependent on the duration of exposure as well as the sample preparation. The analysis of leukocyte subsets in frozen sheep blood showed no alterations in the percentages of T and B lymphocytes but led to a major decrease in the percentage of granulocytes compared to those in the fresh samples. The percentages of IFN-γ and IL-4 but not IL-6 positive cells were comparable between fresh and frozen sheep blood after 4 hour stimulation with phorbol 12-myrisate 13-acetate and ionomycin (PMA+I). These results show that frozen blood gives comparable responses to fresh blood samples in the toxicological and immune assays used.

Optimised crystal morphologies for active pharmaceutical ingredients and related studies

The majority of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) are crystalline solids in their pure forms. Crystalline solids have definable morphologies, i.e. shape and size. Crystal morphology is determined by both the internal structure of the crystals and external factors during growth from solution. The morphology of a crystal batch can affect key processes during manufacturing. Companies generally accept whatever morphology the manufacturing process provides and deal with any subsequent problems by costly trouble‒shooting. Rational design of optimised morphologies for crystalline pharmaceutical solids would be a very significant technical and commercial advance. Chapter one introduces the concept of crystal nucleation and growth. The phenomenon of polymorphism alongside the causes and impact is discussed. A summary of the scope of instrumentation used in the investigation of crystal polymorphism and morphology, including crystal size distribution (CSD), is also included. Chapter two examines the research carried out during an exploration of the optimum crystallisation parameters of phenacetin. Following a morphological study, the impact this induces on particle density and flow properties is examined. The impact of impurities on the crystallisation properties of phenacetin is investigated. Significantly, the location of impurities within individual crystals is also studied. The third chapter describes an industrial collaboration looking at the resolution and polymorphic study of trometamol and lysine salts of ketoprofen and 2‒phenylpropionic acid (2‒PPA). Chapter four incorporates a solid state study on three separate compounds: 2‒chloro‒4‒nitroaniline, 4‒hydroxy‒N‒phenylbenzenesulfonamide and N‒acetyl‒D‒glucosamine‒6‒O‒sulfate. 2‒Chloro‒4‒nitroaniline and 4‒hydroxy‒N‒phenylbenzenesulfonamide both produced interesting, extreme morphologies which warranted further investigation as part of a collaborative study. Following a summarisation of results in chapter five, chapter six contains the full experimental details, incorporating spectral and other analytical data for all compounds synthesised during the course of the research.

Preserving patent policy space and securing access to medicines in developing countries: the role of states and pharmaceutical corporations

This thesis examines the tension between patent rights and the right to health and it recognizes patent rights on pharmaceutical products as one of the factors responsible for the problem of lack of access to affordable medicines in developing countries. The thesis contends that, in order to preserve their patent policy space and secure access to affordable medicines for their citizens, developing countries should incorporate a model of human rights into the design, implementation, interpretation, and enforcement of their national patent laws. The thesis provides a systematic analysis of court decisions from four key developing countries (Brazil, India, Kenya, and South Africa) and it assesses how the national courts in these countries resolve the tension between patent rights and the right to health. Essentially, this thesis demonstrates how a model of human rights can be incorporated into the adjudication of disputes involving patent rights in national courts. Focusing specifically on Brazil, the thesis equally demonstrates how policy makers and law makers at the national level can incorporate a model of human rights into the design or amendment of their national patent law. This thesis also contributes to the ongoing debate in the field of business and human rights with regard to the mechanisms that can be used to hold corporate actors accountable for their human rights responsibilities. This thesis recognizes that, while states bear the primary responsibility to respect, protect, and fulfil the right to health, corporate actors such as pharmaceutical companies also have a baseline responsibility to respect the right to health. This thesis therefore contends that pharmaceutical companies that own patent rights on pharmaceutical products can be held accountable for their right to health responsibilities at the national level through the incorporation of a model of civic participation into a country’s patent law system.

Telescoped approach to aryl hydroxymethylation in the synthesis of a key pharmaceutical intermediate

An efficient synthetic approach leading to introduction of the hydroxymethyl group to an aryl moiety via combination of the Bouveault formylation and hydride reduction has been optimized using a rational, mechanistic-based approach. This approach enabled telescoping of the two steps into a single efficient process, readily amenable to scaleup.