Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised.

Crystallographic and magnetic identification of secondary phase in orientated Bi 5Fe 0.5Co 0.5Ti 3O 15 ceramics

The fabrication of highly-oriented polycrystalline ceramics of Bi 5Fe 0.5Co 0.5Ti 3O 15, prepared via molten salt synthesis and uniaxial pressing of high aspect ratio platelets is reported. Electron backscatter images show a secondary phase within the ceramic which is rich in cobalt and iron. The concentration of the secondary phase obtained from scanning electron microscopy is estimated at less than 2% by volume, below the detection limit of x-ray diffraction (XRD). The samples were characterized by x-ray diffraction, polarization-electric field measurements, superconducting quantum interference device as a function of sample orientation and vibrating sample magnetometry as a function of temperature. It is inferred from the data that the observed ferromagnetic response is dominated by the secondary phase. This work highlights the importance of rigorous materials characterisation in the study of multiferroics as small amounts of secondary phase, below the limit of XRD, can lead to false conclusions.

A constraint and position identification (CPI) approach for the synthesis of decoupled spatial translational compliant parallel manipulators

This paper introduces a screw theory based method termed constraint and position identification (CPI) approach to synthesize decoupled spatial translational compliant parallel manipulators (XYZ CPMs) with consideration of actuation isolation. The proposed approach is based on a systematic arrangement of rigid stages and compliant modules in a three-legged XYZ CPM system using the constraint spaces and the position spaces of the compliant modules. The constraint spaces and the position spaces are firstly derived based on the screw theory instead of using the rigid-body mechanism design experience. Additionally, the constraint spaces are classified into different constraint combinations, with typical position spaces depicted via geometric entities. Furthermore, the systematic synthesis process based on the constraint combinations and the geometric entities is demonstrated via several examples. Finally, several novel decoupled XYZ CPMs with monolithic configurations are created and verified by finite elements analysis. The present CPI approach enables experts and beginners to synthesize a variety of decoupled XYZ CPMs with consideration of actuation isolation by selecting an appropriate constraint and an optimal position for each of the compliant modules according to a specific application.

Compilation and analysis of integrated regional input-output tables for NUTS 2 regions in Ireland

In 1966, Roy Geary, Director of the ESRI, noted “the absence of any kind of import and export statistics for regions is a grave lacuna” and further noted that if regional analyses were to be developed then regional Input-Output Tables must be put on the “regular statistical assembly line”. Forty-five years later, the lacuna lamented by Geary still exists and remains the most significant challenge to the construction of regional Input-Output Tables in Ireland. The continued paucity of sufficient regional data to compile effective regional Supply and Use and Input-Output Tables has retarded the capacity to construct sound regional economic models and provide a robust evidence base with which to formulate and assess regional policy. This study makes a first step towards addressing this gap by presenting the first set of fully integrated, symmetric, Supply and Use and domestic Input-Output Tables compiled for the NUTS 2 regions in Ireland: The Border, Midland and Western region and the Southern & Eastern region. These tables are general purpose in nature and are consistent fully with the official national Supply & Use and Input-Output Tables, and the regional accounts. The tables are constructed using a survey-based or bottom-up approach rather than employing modelling techniques, yielding more robust and credible tables. These tables are used to present a descriptive statistical analysis of the two administrative NUTS 2 regions in Ireland, drawing particular attention to the underlying structural differences of regional trade balances and composition of Gross Value Added in those regions. By deriving regional employment multipliers, Domestic Demand Employment matrices are constructed to quantify and illustrate the supply chain impact on employment. In the final part of the study, the predictive capability of the Input-Output framework is tested over two time periods. For both periods, the static Leontief production function assumptions are relaxed to allow for labour productivity. Comparative results from this experiment are presented.

Survey on demand side sensitivity to power quality in Ireland

Power systems require a reliable supply and good power quality. The impact of power supply interruptions is well acknowledged and well quantified. However, a system may perform reliably without any interruptions but may have poor power quality. Although poor power quality has cost implications for all actors in the electrical power systems, only some users are aware of its impact. Power system operators are much attuned to the impact of low power quality on their equipment and have the appropriate monitoring systems in place. However, over recent years certain industries have come increasingly vulnerable to negative cost implications of poor power quality arising from changes in their load characteristics and load sensitivities, and therefore increasingly implement power quality monitoring and mitigation solutions. This paper reviews several historical studies which investigate the cost implications of poor power quality on industry. These surveys are largely focused on outages, whilst the impact of poor power quality such as harmonics, short interruptions, voltage dips and swells, and transients is less well studied and understood. This paper examines the difficulties in quantifying the costs of poor power quality, and uses the chi-squared method to determine the consequences for industry of power quality phenomenon using a case study of over 40 manufacturing and data centres in Ireland.