Risco de crédito: uma abordagem utilizando análise discriminante, regressão logística e redes neurais artificiais

Considering the relevance of researches concerning credit risk, model diversity and the existent indicators, this thesis aimed at verifying if the Fleuriet Model contributes in discriminating Brazilian open capital companies in the analysis of credit concession. We specifically intended to i) identify the economic-financial indicators used in credit risk models; ii) identify which economic-financial indicators best discriminate companies in the analysis of credit concession; iii) assess which techniques used (discriminant analysis, logistic regression and neural networks) present the best accuracy to predict company bankruptcy. To do this, the theoretical background approached the concepts of financial analysis, which introduced themes relative to the company evaluation process; considerations on credit, risk and analysis; Fleuriet Model and its indicators, and, finally, presented the techniques for credit analysis based on discriminant analysis, logistic regression and artificial neural networks. Methodologically, the research was defined as quantitative, regarding its nature, and explanatory, regarding its type. It was developed using data derived from bibliographic and document analysis. The financial demonstrations were collected by means of the Economática ® and the BM$FBOVESPA website. The sample was comprised of 121 companies, being those 70 solvents and 51 insolvents from various sectors. In the analyses, we used 22 indicators of the Traditional Model and 13 of the Fleuriet Model, totalizing 35 indicators. The economic-financial indicators which were a part of, at least, one of the three final models were: X1 (Working Capital over Assets), X3 (NCG over Assets), X4 (NCG over Net Revenue), X8 (Type of Financial Structure), X9 (Net Thermometer), X16 (Net Equity divided by the total demandable), X17 (Asset Turnover), X20 (Net Equity Profitability), X25 (Net Margin), X28 (Debt Composition) and X31 (Net Equity over Asset). The final models presented setting values of: 90.9% (discriminant analysis); 90.9% (logistic regression) and 97.8% (neural networks). The modeling in neural networks presented higher accuracy, which was confirmed by the ROC curve. In conclusion, the indicators of the Fleuriet Model presented relevant results for the research of credit risk, especially if modeled by neural networks.

Relação entre governança corporativa e gerenciamento de resultados: um estudo em empresas brasileiras listadas na BM&FBOVESPA

The objective of this work was to identify a possible relation between corporate governance, through the structure of the boards of directors and the levels of earnings management of Brazilian public companies. The study is characterized as a descriptive, of a hypothetical-deductive nature, with quantitative approach guided by the estimation model proposed by Kang and Sivaramakrishnan (1995). The sample was comprised by 56 companies, analyzed in the period from 2011 to 2014. The information on the companies were extracted from Economatica databank. For the data analysis, we used multivariate techniques, such as Pearson correlation and panel data in POLS, Fixed Effects and Random Effects approaches. Furthermore, we applied the mean comparison test ANOVA. The results obtained show that, generally, the organizations tend to follow the profile of boards of directors recommended by the codes of corporative governance. However, the characteristics of the composition of the board, regarding its size and the duality of positions that are not yet sufficient to be considered capable of inhibiting the discretionary practice of the studied companies. Relative the control variables, only size and return on equity presented no significant relation with result management. It is important to highlight that literature point many factors that explain the different impacts caused by the formation of the administration board in different regions or countries. Among the factors pointed, we highlight the legal system of the country, the economic and political development, the importance of the capital market, and the level of accounting education.

Rotulagem como mecanismo de compartilhamento de informações com agentes da cadeia produtiva do café

The Agroindustrial System coffee after decades of state regulation has become a decentralized economic activity. This situation compelled most of the actors in the production chain to resort to self r egulatory systems offered by certification agencies, which have specific criteria and procedures. However the diversity criteria of the agencies do not offer resources able to ensure efficient management of the governance structure. There is a need to reduce the asymmetry of information, which is possible through the sharing of data compatible with the production tracking feature. This work is supported in this contextualized problem, based on Transaction Cost Theory and the use of qualitative and quantitative research methodologies. The first part of the work seeks to know the procedures required by leading regulatory agencies in Brazil, with perspective to emphasize the similarities and compatibilities between them, which was reached after analysis of standards and comparison of similarities. Next is registered the operation and the coffee traceability of the structure, in order to identify, through observation, documental and bibliographical analysis, the systems in place and traceable information in line with the recommendations of the coffee certification. Finally, he sought to create a labeling model that allows to generate and share information about the product from the field to the sale for consumption. The information obtained in the previous steps were the basis for data collection with the production chain agents through a structured questionnaire administered to 618 agents of the production chain, whose answers were treated by multivariate methods of statistical analysis. The results showed that actors in the chain are in favor of inclusion and sharing information related to rural production and economic and environmental data. This knowledge enabled develop a labeling model where the information sharing agents is an efficient mechanism to mitigate the governance problems identified.

Valores, crenças e comportamentos nas ações e atitudes dos indivíduos de caráter ambiental no município de Lavras -MG

The concept of environment involves social, political and economic aspects, in addition to natural elements. The acknowledgement that the environmental issue is complex highlights the importance of understanding the dynamics of relations that guide the individuals in their interactions with the environment. In this sense, studies have shown the relation between values, beliefs and behaviors. The theory on values developed by Schwartz (1992) identifies the complexity of the relations between values and behavior, organizing the field of human motivation into ten motivational types. Studies conducted by Pato (2004) on environmental beliefs are capable of indicating how the individuals relate to the environment, and its predisposition in acting or not in an ecological manner, allowing an understanding of ecological behavior and its forms of manifestation. Therefore, the objective of this study consisted of analyzing the value perception over environmental beliefs and ecological behavior of the individuals inserted into the environmental theme of the municipality of Lavras, Minas Gerais, Brazil. The research was conducted using a sample of 82 participants, comprised in its majority of male (62.2%), married (54.9%) individuals, and those with age from 31 to 40 years (35.4%). A survey of four segments was conducted: Ecological Behavior Scale (EBS), Environmental Beliefs Scale (EBeS), Schwatz Value Profile (SVP-40) and sociodemographic variables. The participants assumed, first, a value orientation directed to the universalism motivational type, which involves an important set of values for understanding the behaviors in relation to the environment. Furthermore, the results showed that the behaviors related to urban cleaning and economy of water and energy are more easily assimilated, while behaviors oriented to activism/consumerism and recycling were not yet incorporated in a satisfactory manner. On the other hand, the fact of belonging to an institution of which mission is to care for the environment seems to induce the participants to show a greater predisposition to pro-environmental behaviors. The environmental issue, urgent and moved by not always confluent debates, points to the need for reorganizing daily life, which necessarily involves change in values and behaviors. Thus, this study is relevant given that the interaction between the constructs can contribute with the research and the proposition of strategies that promote a reduction of behaviors damaging to the environment, as well as the strengthening of those that contribute for its preservation, sensitizing the actors involved to reorder their roles for benefiting the environment.