Error Autocorrelation and Linear Regression for Temperature-Based Evapotranspiration Estimates Improvement

Estimates of evapotranspiration on a local scale is important information for agricultural and hydrological practices. However, equations to estimate potential evapotranspiration based only on temperature data, which are simple to use, are usually less trustworthy than the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)Penman-Monteith standard method. The present work describes two correction procedures for potential evapotranspiration estimates by temperature, making the results more reliable. Initially, the standard FAO-Penman-Monteith method was evaluated with a complete climatologic data set for the period between 2002 and 2006. Then temperature-based estimates by Camargo and Jensen-Haise methods have been adjusted by error autocorrelation evaluated in biweekly and monthly periods. In a second adjustment, simple linear regression was applied. The adjusted equations have been validated with climatic data available for the Year 2001. Both proposed methodologies showed good agreement with the standard method indicating that the methodology can be used for local potential evapotranspiration estimates.

What ethologically based models have taught us about the neural systems underlying fear and anxiety

Classical Pavlovian fear conditioning to painful stimuli has provided the generally accepted view of a core system centered in the central amygdala to organize fear responses. Ethologically based models using other sources of threat likely to be expected in a natural environment, such as predators or aggressive dominant conspecifics, have challenged this concept of a unitary core circuit for fear processing. We discuss here what the ethologically based models have told us about the neural systems organizing fear responses. We explored the concept that parallel paths process different classes of threats, and that these different paths influence distinct regions in the periaqueductal gray - a critical element for the organization of all kinds of fear responses. Despite this parallel processing of different kinds of threats, we have discussed an interesting emerging view that common cortical-hippocampal-amygdalar paths seem to be engaged in fear conditioning to painful stimuli, to predators and, perhaps, to aggressive dominant conspecifics as well. Overall, the aim of this review is to bring into focus a more global and comprehensive view of the systems organizing fear responses.

Competing regression models for longitudinal data

The choice of an appropriate family of linear models for the analysis of longitudinal data is often a matter of concern for practitioners. To attenuate such difficulties, we discuss some issues that emerge when analyzing this type of data via a practical example involving pretestposttest longitudinal data. In particular, we consider log-normal linear mixed models (LNLMM), generalized linear mixed models (GLMM), and models based on generalized estimating equations (GEE). We show how some special features of the data, like a nonconstant coefficient of variation, may be handled in the three approaches and evaluate their performance with respect to the magnitude of standard errors of interpretable and comparable parameters. We also show how different diagnostic tools may be employed to identify outliers and comment on available software. We conclude by noting that the results are similar, but that GEE-based models may be preferable when the goal is to compare the marginal expected responses.

LIFE TABLE ANALYSIS OF DIAPHORINA CITRI (HEMIPTERA: PSYLLIDAE) INFESTING SWEET ORANGE (CITRUS SINENSIS) IN SAO PAULO

An ecological life table for eggs and nymphs of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae) was constructed with data obtained from orange orchards (Citrus sinensis Osbeck) in 2 regions of the State of Sao Paulo, over 4 generations in the period from XI-2006 to V-2007, comprising spring, summer, and fall seasons. Young growing shoots with D. citri eggs present were identified, and live individuals were counted until adult emergence. No predatory arthropods were observed in association with D. citri eggs and nymphs during the study. The mean parasitism of fourth- and fifth-instar nymphs by Tamarixia radiata Waterston (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) was 2.3%. The durations of the egg-adult period were similar among the 4 generations, ranging from 18.0 to 24.7 d (at mean temperatures ranging from 21.6 to 26.0 degrees C) and followed the temperature requirement models obtained in the laboratory for D. citri. However, survival from the egg to the adult stage for the same period varied considerably from 1.7 to 21.4%; the highest mortalities were observed in the egg and small nymphal (first- to thirdinstar) stages, which were considered to be key phases for population growth of the pest.

Homogeneity assessment of a station climate series (1933-2005) in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo: instruments change and urbanization effects

This work assessed homogeneity of the Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences (IAG) weather station climate series, using various statistical techniques. The record from this target station is one of the longest in Brazil, having commenced in 1933 with observations of precipitation, and temperatures and other variables later in 1936. Thus, it is one of the few stations in Brazil with enough data for long-term climate variability and climate change studies. There is, however, a possibility that its data may have been contaminated by some artifacts over time. Admittedly, there was an intervention on the observations in 1958, with the replacement of instruments, for which the size of impact has not been yet evaluated. The station transformed in the course of time from rural to urban, and this may also have influenced homogeneity of the observations and makes the station less representative for climate studies over larger spatial scales. Homogeneity of the target station was assessed applying both absolute, or single station tests, and tests relatively to regional climate, in annual scale, regarding daily precipitation, relative humidity, maximum (TMax), minimum (TMin), and wet bulb temperatures. Among these quantities, only precipitation does not exhibit any inhomogeneity. A clear signal of change of instruments in 1958 was detected in the TMax and relative humidity data, the latter certainly because of its strong dependence on temperature. This signal is not very clear in TMin, but it presents non-climatic discontinuities around 1953 and around 1970. A significant homogeneity break is found around 1990 for TMax and wet bulb temperature. The discontinuities detected after 1958 may have been caused by urbanization, as the observed warming trend in the station is considerably greater than that corresponding to regional climate.

The globular cluster kinematics and galaxy dark matter content of NGC 3923

This paper presents further results from our spectroscopic study of the globular cluster (GC) system of the group elliptical NGC 3923. From observations made with the GMOS instrument on the Gemini South Telescope, an additional 50 GC and ultra-compact dwarf (UCD) candidates have been spectroscopically confirmed as members of the NGC 3923 system. When the recessional velocities of these GCs are combined with the 29 GC velocities reported previously, a total sample of 79 GC/UCD velocities is produced. This sample extends to over 6 arcmin (>6 R-e similar to 30 kpc) from the centre of NGC 3923 and is used to study the dynamics of the GC system and the dark matter content of NGC 3923. It is found that the GC system of NGC 3923 displays no appreciable rotation, and that the projected velocity dispersion is constant with radius within the uncertainties. The velocity dispersion profiles of the integrated light and GC system of NGC 3923 are indistinguishable over the region in which they overlap. We find some evidence that the diffuse light and GCs of NGC 3923 have radially biased orbits within similar to 130 arcsec. The application of axisymmetric orbit-based models to the GC and integrated light velocity dispersion profiles demonstrates that a significant increase in the mass-to-light ratio (from M/L-V = 8 to 26) at large galactocentric radii is required to explain this observation. We therefore confirm the presence of a dark matter halo in NGC 3923. We find that dark matter comprises 17.5(-4.5)(+7.3) per cent of the mass within 1 R-e, 41.2(-10.6)(+18.2) per cent within 2 R-e and 75.6(-16.8)(+15.4) per cent within the radius of our last kinematic tracer at 6.9 R-e. The total dynamical mass within this radius is found to be 1.5(-0.25)(+0.4) x 10(12) M-circle dot. In common with other studies of large ellipticals, we find that our derived dynamical mass profile is consistently higher than that derived by X-ray observations, by a factor of around 2.

Changes in intrapopulation resource use patterns of an endangered raptor in response to a disease-mediated crash in prey abundance

1. A long-standing question in ecology is how natural populations respond to a changing environment. Emergent optimal foraging theory-based models for individual variation go beyond the population level and predict how its individuals would respond to disturbances that produce changes in resource availability. 2. Evaluating variations in resource use patterns at the intrapopulation level in wild populations under changing environmental conditions would allow to further advance in the research on foraging ecology and evolution by gaining a better idea of the underlying mechanisms explaining trophic diversity. 3. In this study, we use a large spatio-temporal scale data set (western continental Europe, 19682006) on the diet of Bonellis Eagle Aquila fasciata breeding pairs to analyse the predator trophic responses at the intrapopulation level to a prey population crash. In particular, we borrow metrics from studies on network structure and intrapopulation variation to understand how an emerging infectious disease [the rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD)] that caused the density of the eagles primary prey (rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus) to dramatically drop across Europe impacted on resource use patterns of this endangered raptor. 4. Following the major RHD outbreak, substantial changes in Bonellis Eagles diet diversity and organisation patterns at the intrapopulation level took place. Dietary variation among breeding pairs was larger after than before the outbreak. Before RHD, there were no clusters of pairs with similar diets, but significant clustering emerged after RHD. Moreover, diets at the pair level presented a nested pattern before RHD, but not after. 5. Here, we reveal how intrapopulation patterns of resource use can quantitatively and qualitatively vary, given drastic changes in resource availability. 6. For the first time, we show that a pathogen of a prey species can indirectly impact the intrapopulation patterns of resource use of an endangered predator.

Air pollution and health: bridging the gap from sources to health outcomes: conference summary

Air Pollution and Health: Bridging the Gap from Sources to Health Outcomes, an international specialty conference sponsored by the American Association for Aerosol Research, was held to address key uncertainties in our understanding of adverse health effects related to air pollution and to integrate and disseminate results from recent scientific studies that cut across a range of air pollution-related disciplines. The Conference addressed the science of air pollution and health within a multipollutant framework (herein "multipollutant" refers to gases and particulate matter mass, components, and physical properties), focusing on five key science areas: sources, atmospheric sciences, exposure, dose, and health effects. Eight key policy-relevant science questions integrated across various parts of the five science areas and a ninth question regarding findings that provide policy-relevant insights served as the framework for the meeting. Results synthesized from this Conference provide new evidence, reaffirm past findings, and offer guidance for future research efforts that will continue to incrementally advance the science required for reducing uncertainties in linking sources, air pollutants, human exposure, and health effects. This paper summarizes the Conference findings organized around the science questions. A number of key points emerged from the Conference findings. First, there is a need for greater focus on multipollutant science and management approaches that include more direct studies of the mixture of pollutants from sources with an emphasis on health studies at ambient concentrations. Further, a number of research groups reaffirmed a need for better understanding of biological mechanisms and apparent associations of various health effects with components of particulate matter (PM), such as elemental carbon, certain organic species, ultrafine particles, and certain trace elements such as Ni, V, and Fe(II), as well as some gaseous pollutants. Although much debate continues in this area, generation of reactive oxygen species induced by these and other species present in air pollution and the resulting oxidative stress and inflammation were reiterated as key pathways leading to respiratory and cardiovascular outcomes. The Conference also underscored significant advances in understanding the susceptibility of populations, including the role of genetics and epigenetics and the influence of socioeconomic and other confounding factors and their synergistic interactions with air pollutants. Participants also pointed out that short-and long-term intervention episodes that reduce pollution from sources and improve air quality continue to indicate that when pollution decreases so do reported adverse health effects. In the limited number of cases where specific sources or PM2.5 species were included in investigations, specific species are often associated with the decrease in effects. Other recent advances for improved exposure estimates for epidemiological studies included using new technologies such as microsensors combined with cell phone and integrated into real-time communications, hybrid air quality modeling such as combined receptor-and emission-based models, and surface observations used with remote sensing such as satellite data.

A Systematic Mapping on the Role-Permission Relationship in Role Based Access Control Models

Access control is a key component of security in any computer system. In the last two decades, the research on Role Basead Access Control Models was intense. One of the most important components of a Role Based Model is the Role-Permission Relationship. In this paper, the technique of systematic mapping is used to identify, extract and analyze many approaches applied to establish the Role-Permission Relationship. The main goal of this mapping is pointing directions of significant research in the area of Role Based Access Control Models.

Estimation and diagnostics for heteroscedastic nonlinear regression models based on scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions

An extension of some standard likelihood based procedures to heteroscedastic nonlinear regression models under scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) distributions is developed. This novel class of models provides a useful generalization of the heteroscedastic symmetrical nonlinear regression models (Cysneiros et al., 2010), since the random term distributions cover both symmetric as well as asymmetric and heavy-tailed distributions such as skew-t, skew-slash, skew-contaminated normal, among others. A simple EM-type algorithm for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters is presented and the observed information matrix is derived analytically. In order to examine the performance of the proposed methods, some simulation studies are presented to show the robust aspect of this flexible class against outlying and influential observations and that the maximum likelihood estimates based on the EM-type algorithm do provide good asymptotic properties. Furthermore, local influence measures and the one-step approximations of the estimates in the case-deletion model are obtained. Finally, an illustration of the methodology is given considering a data set previously analyzed under the homoscedastic skew-t nonlinear regression model. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Urea-Based Synthesis of Zinc Oxide Nanostructures at Low Temperature

The preparation of nanometer-sized structures of zinc oxide (ZnO) from zinc acetate and urea as raw materials was performed using conventional water bath heating and a microwave hydrothermal (MH) method in an aqueous solution. The oxide formation is controlled by decomposition of the added urea in the sealed autoclave. The influence of urea and the synthesis method on the final product formation are discussed. Broadband photoluminescence (PL) behavior in visible-range spectra was observed with a maximum peak centered in the green region which was attributed to different defects and the structural changes involved with ZnO crystals which were produced during the nucleation process.

Design-based random permutation models with auxiliary information

We extend the random permutation model to obtain the best linear unbiased estimator of a finite population mean accounting for auxiliary variables under simple random sampling without replacement (SRS) or stratified SRS. The proposed method provides a systematic design-based justification for well-known results involving common estimators derived under minimal assumptions that do not require specification of a functional relationship between the response and the auxiliary variables.

Photo luminescent polymer electrolyte based on agar and containing europium picrate for electrochemical devices

Dispersion of photoluminescent rare earth metal complexes in polymer matrices is of great interest due to the possibility of avoiding the saturation of the photoluminescent signal. The possibility of using a natural ionic conducting polymer matrix was investigated in this study. Samples of agar-based electrolytes containing europium picrate were prepared and characterized by physical and chemical analyses. The FTIR spectra indicated strong interaction of agar O-H and 3.6-anhydro-galactose C-O groups with glycerol and europium picrate. The DSC analyses revealed no glass transition temperature of the samples in the -60 to 250 degrees C range. From the thermogravimetry (TG), a thermal stability of the samples of up to 180 degrees C was stated. The membranes were subjected to ionic conductivity measurement, which provided the values of 2.6 x 10(-6) S/cm for the samples with acetic acid and 1.6 x 10(-5) S/cm for the samples without acetic acid. Moreover, the temperature-dependent ionic conductivity measurements revealed both Arrhenius and VTF models of the conductivity depending on the sample. Surface visualization through scanning electron microscopy (SEM) demonstrated good uniformity. The samples were also applied in small electrochromic devices and showed good electrochemical stability. The present work confirmed that these materials may perform as satisfactory multifunctional component layers in the field of electrochemical devices. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

RegCM3 nested in HadAM3 scenarios A2 and B2: projected changes in extratropical cyclogenesis, temperature and precipitation over the South Atlantic Ocean

The RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model-version 3) was nested in HadAM3 model to simulate present (1975-1989, referred hereafter as RegHad) and two future climate scenarios (A2 and B2 from 2071 to 2085, referred as RegA2 and RegB2) over the South America (SA) and South Atlantic Ocean (SAO). Projected changes in the air temperature, precipitation, low level circulation and cyclogenesis climatology were investigated. The cyclogenesis were identified using an automatic scheme for tracking based on the minimum of relative vorticity (zeta) from 10-m height wind. During summer, a general decrease (increase) in the precipitation is projected by RegA2 and RegB2 over the northeastern SA (center-west and south Brazil, north Argentina and Uruguay). For winter, an anomalous low level anticyclonic circulation is associated with the reduction in the rainfall over the central part of southern Brazil in RegA2 and RegB2 scenarios. Similar to HadAM3, RegCM3 projects larger warming in A2 scenario. For the present climate, when compared to HadAM3, RegHad defines better both the location of the main cyclogenetic areas and its annual cycle near southwestern SAO. The projections indicate a reduction in the total number of cyclones of -7.2% and -4.7% for RegA2 and RegB2, respectively, while HadAM3 reduction is -4.5% for both scenarios. The decrease is larger for initially intense cyclones (zeta <=-<= 2.5 x 10(-5) s-(1)): -20.9% (RegA2) and -11.3% (RegB2). For the lifetime, distance traveled and mean velocity of the cyclones, the A2 and B2 scenarios present mean values close to the present climate ( 3 days, 1900 km, and 9 m s(-1), respectively). Regarding the initial mean vorticity of the systems, RegB2 simulates values similar to the present climate, but they are initially weaker in RegA2. In general, RegA2 and RegB2 show a large decrease in the number of cyclones over the southern SAO due to an anticyclonic anomaly covering SAO between 30-55A degrees S. The reduction is larger in the scenario with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases (RegA2).

A MODIS-Based Energy Balance to Estimate Evapotranspiration for Clear-Sky Days in Brazilian Tropical Savannas

Evapotranspiration (ET) plays an important role in global climate dynamics and in primary production of terrestrial ecosystems; it represents the mass and energy transfer from the land to atmosphere. Limitations to measuring ET at large scales using ground-based methods have motivated the development of satellite remote sensing techniques. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the accuracy of the SEBAL algorithm for estimating surface turbulent heat fluxes at regional scale, using 28 images from MODIS. SEBAL estimates are compared with eddy-covariance (EC) measurements and results from the hydrological model MGB-IPH. SEBAL instantaneous estimates of latent heat flux (LE) yielded r(2) = 0.64 and r(2) = 0.62 over sugarcane croplands and savannas when compared against in situ EC estimates. At the same sites, daily aggregated estimates of LE were r(2) = 0.76 and r(2) = 0.66, respectively. Energy balance closure showed that turbulent fluxes over sugarcane croplands were underestimated by 7% and 9% over savannas. Average daily ET from SEBAL is in close agreement with estimates from the hydrological model for an overlay of 38,100 km(2) (r(2) = 0.88). Inputs to which the algorithm is most sensitive are vegetation index (NDVI), gradient of temperature (dT) to compute sensible heat flux (H) and net radiation (Re). It was verified that SEBAL has a tendency to overestimate results both at local and regional scales probably because of low sensitivity to soil moisture and water stress. Nevertheless the results confirm the potential of the SEBAL algorithm, when used with MODIS images for estimating instantaneous LE and daily ET from large areas.